Eastern Tasmanian Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Jul 9th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Quality E swell Thurs, easing into Fri am with NW tending SW winds
• Small S swell likely Fri with W/SW winds tending W/NW
• Stronger S pulse Sat, easing through the day
• N’ly windswell wrap likely Sun
• Small S pulse likely Mon
• More small S pulses likely into next week

Recap

Small E/NE swells to 2ft yesterday with NW-N winds, fresh in the a’noon. Only tiny into this morning with babyfood to 1-1.5ft. We still may see some better quality E swell show but tomorrow is looking a better bet.

This week and next (July9- July 18)

A weak synoptic pattern over the continent is about to be replaced by a series of troughs and fronts sweeping up from the SW. We’ll see freshening pre-frontal NW-N/NW winds shift W then W/SW as the fronts and parent low enter the Tasman. Compared to Mondays notes the outlook for S swell is improved, mostly due to a better aligned following front which conjoins the initial front and forms a slower moving low in the southern Tasman.

In the short run, fresh NW to N/NW winds tend SW in the a’noon as a front pushes over the state. Good quality E swell from a fetch near New Zealand supplies quality E swell to 3 occ. 4ft at times. If you can get out of the wind there’ll be some good waves to be had.

Winds shift W/SW Fri then veer back W/NW before tending W/SW again as another front and low enter the picture. Most of the swell generating winds are north of Tas from this front so we’ll only see a small increase in size in the a’noon to 2ft with leftover E swell to 2-3ft early, easing through the morning.

Sat is a different story. The secondary front is much better placed for Tas (see below) with size to 3-4ft early Sat, easing through the day and winds from the W to W/NW, fresh at times.

Strong to gale force NW winds out of Bass Strait Sun look to generate some workable N’ly windswell wrap to 2-3ft in the a’noon although winds will make surfing difficult. 

Into next week and more fronts and lows pushing into the Tasman, although nothing major at this stage. We should see winds swing W’ly as another front pushes through, tied to a parent low which tracks NE into the Tasman Sun into Mon. A small pulse of S swell is likely with this front.

That pulse then eases into Tues with small S swells padding out the week. The frontal progressions are zonal so we’re only looking at small pulses in the 2-3ft range for now into the end of the working week. Still a possibility they could look better when we come back Fri.

Medium term looks like more of the same: high pressure up over the continent, moving NE into the Tasman with W’ly episodes and small S swells, tiny north of the border.

Pretty typical winter pattern. Let’s come back Fri and see if it holds. 

Seeya then.