Eastern Tasmanian Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 9th June)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Surf large this week as low stalls to the east of the state
• Large swells from the E/SE Mon-Thurs with SW-S winds
• Easing swells Fri with surf becoming tiny this weekend
• Potential for another low in the Tasman next week- check back Wed for latest updates

Recap

Small fun surf from the NE to 3ft on Sat with building E/NE swells to 3–4ft Sun. Today is seeing stormy E/SE swell to 6ft as a low hovers off NETasmania with fresh/strong SE winds.

This week and next week (Jun9 - Jun 22)

Slow moving low pressure (995hPa) spawned in a cold outbreak is currently due east of Eden on the far south coast and is driving fresh W’ly winds across NSW and up into SEQLD, whist directing a fresh S/SE flow across Tasmania. We’ll see the low move slowly out to sea later tomorrow with large stormy swells for East Tas slowly easing and improving in quality. 

In the short run we’ll see the low move offshore o/night into Tues with fresh SE winds tending more S’ly during the day. Still plenty of size from the SE-E/SE with surf to 5-6ft through the day.

We’ll still see mod/fresh S’ly winds Wed but they should moderate during the day as pressure gradient ease. SE swells hold to 4-5ft with a better quality pulse to 4-6ft in the a’noon. 

That pulse holds into Thurs morning with winds improving as the low moves away. We should see offshore breezes develop with quality surf to 4-5ft, easing during the day.

Expect a slow easing through Fri and into the weekend with light SW-SE breezes tending light NW on Sat.

By Sun it’ll be back to small leftovers to 1ft or less. 

Looks like a couple of small days to start next week with leftovers to 1-2ft or less and offshore winds as a front and low approach from the west.

We should see more action mid week with potential for another low in the Tasman.

Lots of model divergence there so we’ll flag another round of S quadrant swell possibly as early as Tues next week and see how it looks on Wed.

Seeya then!