Eastern Tasmanian Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed May 28th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Easing S swell Thu with W/NW tending E winds
• Moderate sized S'ly groundswell building later Fri, easing Sat with W/NW tending NE winds
• Dynamic outlook now for next week with potential S pulses from trough/front Tues
• Much bigger S swell possible Thurs/Fri as low pressure gyre forms in Tasman- check back Fri for latest updates

Recap

Plenty of great E/NE swell to 3-4ft yesterday with offshore W-SW winds. That swell has eased off today and we’re using building S swell today under fresh/strong SW winds.

This week and weekend (May 28 - Jun 1)

A strong cold outbreak has led to the formation of a winter-calibre low in the Tasman (984hPa), backed by a strong, slow moving high in the Bight. We’re seeing the formation of strong S swells from this system, which will peak tomorrow then ease with a following front and deep low well to the south providing a strong S groundswell over the weekend under light winds.

In the short run S swell from this source holds to 4-5ft in the morning under an easing trend with favourable offshore W-W/NW winds. 

Following this solid local increase in S’ly swell, we’re due to see some solid, moderate sized S’ly groundswell showing later Fri into Sat.

The source is a powerful polar low moving through the lower Tasman Thurs/Fri. It’s an impressive fetch with severe gale to storm force winds in a wide band moving NE, only offset by winds being not perfectly aimed up the pipe (the system reforms SE of New Zealand and looks to send a very large swell towards Tahiti and Northern Hemisphere targets). 

Expect undersized surf early Fri, building to 4-5ft in the a’noon and peaking in the 6ft range Sat morning before easing. Winds look favourable with light/variable breezes Fri tending NW-W/NW on Sat as a high pressure passes to the north and frontal remnants pass to the south.

Into next week and things are now looking dynamic with a potential trough then low pressure gyre forming in the Tasman mid week.

Confidence is low on specifics but we may see an initial S swell from the trough Tues/Wed before a much bigger S-S/SE swell Thurs/Fri as the low pressure gyre forms in the Tasman. Too far out to have any confidence in specifics but keep the good wave boards on hand as we move into the opening stanza of winter.

We’ll have a better idea about how next week is shaping up on Fri.

Seeya then!