COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster

Craig's picture
Craig started the topic in Wednesday, 18 Mar 2020 at 7:44pm

I've created a spreadsheet forecast which I'll update as we go..

There's also a website with live running data.. https://sites.google.com/view/stayhomeaustralia

truebluebasher's picture
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truebluebasher commented Sunday, 5 Jul 2020 at 11:01am

Covid- 19 Vaccine
50% min cure vaccine can be approved.
Usually test on animals first but Covid -19 are risky dual Human/Animal testing.
Bio ethical JH Uni : In theory only 66% vaccines +33% Placebo -( so no one knows)
70-80% Immunisation (15 billion = 2shots) is needed to break pandemic
So how likely is 80% immunisation?

Typically WHO Test on poor nations as Guinea Pigs so the Rich can buy immunity.
French/UK Govt funded labs were outed > We'll surrender 1st Vax stock to US...
1st come the Rich > Pollies > Frontline > Vulnerable > Children > Parents > General.

Countries are fighting for pecking order as we speak Oz is partnering US (vax).
WHA 140 World leaders (No US) demand (Free Global vax) + US Boycott
Less fortunate countries will again wait forever...time enough for uprisings.
We've all seen the movie & know the plot so Blacks/Hispanics say No Vax Thanx!

Corona Vaccine willing participants...(Stats)
US- No / Not Likely 51% (Mostly Blacks then Hispanics)
France - No 26%
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/06/just-50-americans-plan-get-covid...
Oz- Corona Vaccine (No / Not Likely 32%) (No) U24 =28% > 24-38 =34%
Oz Flu Vaccine (No / Not likely 28%)
https://7news.com.au/travel/coronavirus/six-million-australians-could-ch...

Australia: Voted most likely to send non corona vax kidz to Detention Camps
Hot Hotel Kidz :"Sounds like Paradise, hurry those Helloworld Tanks, Mr Dutto Sir!"

Chinese / Kidz visitors were bundled into Oz offshore Detention Centre
(No isolation + No 1.5m SD + Shared Yard Events) Another typical Lib muscle flex.

Qld Children who bravely fight off invasive throat probes by random Pedo bullies.
Kidz are then Fined $780 > 24 days Quarantine with just (1 sniff of Air / week)
(UN/Qld -22hrs x 10 days max for kid prisoners) + Pay + Air + Sun + Daily Yard.

Only Australia: No Jab = (Fined) No - Welfare, child care, schooling, play, sun, air.
Current Qld : No Vax / Test Refusal penalty rate = $200/day + Harshest Jail terms.
This is right here & now in tbb's home state...innocent civil liberties being stripped.

Oz Anti vax Army is growing, if only to take down World's #1 Police State.
It's looking more likely that Covid-19 Vaccine low uptake will fail to end Pandemic.
Govt's will instruct how to blame, dob & Jail your neighbours...that much is certain.

zenagain's picture
zenagain's picture
zenagain commented Sunday, 5 Jul 2020 at 11:12am

Love your work TB.

Some, thankfully not all, restaurants and in particular those with a salad bar, make you wear a mask and gloves when you're not at the table. All restaurants insist you need a mask when entering and use hand sanitiser. If you want to go to the salad bar or drinks bar you have to wear a mask and gloves.

I fucking hate what this virus is doing to society.

Yes, that's mysterious me- ha ha!

1173

troppo dichotomy's picture
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troppo dichotomy commented Sunday, 5 Jul 2020 at 11:46am

What do we do if they cant create a covid vax?

indo-dreaming's picture
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indo-dreaming commented Sunday, 5 Jul 2020 at 12:59pm

Only Australia: No Jab = (Fined) No - Welfare, child care, schooling, play, sun, air.
Current Qld : No Vax / Test Refusal penalty rate = $200/day + Harshest Jail terms.
"This is right here & now in tbb's home state...innocent civil liberties being stripped.

Oz Anti vax Army is growing, if only to take down World's #1 Police State.
It's looking more likely that Covid-19 Vaccine low uptake will fail to end Pandemic.
Govt's will instruct how to blame, dob & Jail your neighbours...that much is certain."

Good Anti Vaxers suck, i dont want non vaccinated kids near mine if i can help it.

Hopefully if a vaccine comes out, it will be a must for all international travel too.

BTW. Regarding your other post all your figures are way out useable farmland is not the same as population density, much of Australia is technically classed as farmable because you can run cattle on it, but in reality you can go a thousands of kilometres without seeing a soul.

85% of Australias population lives within 50km from the coast and most of that population on the east coast.

Blowin's picture
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Blowin commented Sunday, 5 Jul 2020 at 2:24pm

Zen....what’s with the reservoir tips on the fingers of those gloves ? Just how good is the food there ?

I’ll have what he’s having !

zenagain's picture
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zenagain commented Sunday, 5 Jul 2020 at 2:28pm

Food is real good Blowy- great pasta and only place in miles where you can get a real wood fired pizza.

Hands are too big for the gloves, hence the reservoir.

1173

GuySmiley's picture
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GuySmiley commented Sunday, 5 Jul 2020 at 5:12pm
factotum's picture
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factotum commented Sunday, 5 Jul 2020 at 6:08pm

Zen is Butch Vig??

Big respect.

Super fan of Killdozer.

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factotum commented Sunday, 5 Jul 2020 at 6:19pm

Simples.

shoredump's picture
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shoredump commented Sunday, 5 Jul 2020 at 7:17pm

@TD, get back on the horse and accept the collateral damage. Expect death toll to climb crazy high, maybe as bad as what smoking is already doing to our population. Know that just like smoking, you’ll get used to the horror. Improve your health now so when the day comes that you are diagnosed, you won’t be listed in the death column. Remember two other things, one, you shouldn’t be here in the first place (have you seen the stats against your birth) two, its likely to die off on its own anyway, so could do anytime. That or some semi successful drugs will do a decent job in protecting us

@Zen yeah man it’s eating me up too,
so sad

truebluebasher's picture
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truebluebasher commented Monday, 6 Jul 2020 at 10:09am

Oz Pathologies : Refused Testing @ 20 yr/ $24.40
1 April ($100 covid fee Private) + ($50 covid fee Public) + Hidden Fees?

30th Sept (end) Pathologies will work with Govt Testing requirements
Non Symptomatic Testing is unnecessary & wasteful (GP's accept [+] cases only)
Oz Tests 1,085,000 = 0.7%+ / Victoria (Big Advertising + Most % of Oz Tests) = 0.4%+
30 June -Victoria Hot Spot Tests 776,000 = 0.3%

Pathologists: (Mandatory Swab Test has a 33% False (-) Rate.(330,000 could be spreaders?)

Mandatory Testing is under 'Bio Security threat' to individual & to Society.
Police are meant to be overseeing the securing of threat....( Might be a ticket out!)
Vic Health say maybe 2-300 Nurses + 800 testers + 1000 door knockers
1000 Police + 1000 ADF (850-Hotels) +(200 to fly Tests interstate)

10,000 tests/day x 10 days x 10 Hot Spots =100,000 @ $100/test = $10m
20,000+/ day became the new norm > (12 extra sites needed eg: drive thrus)
20,000 / Day is Vic Pathology capacity.

Why People refuse Tests...
(Note: Nondescript staff / signs lack trust.( Just 2-300 Nurses / 20,000 tests/day?)
Here a shop Union calls out Poor Testing...(Allowing patients to swab'n'shop!)
https://insideretail.com.au/news/government-needs-to-step-in-on-shopper-...

10% of Vic Hot Spot residents refused testing.
30% of Vic return travellers refused were ordered an extra 10 days in Quarantine
Testing positive on Day 10 brings heartache + 14 days isolation.(The same as 24 days!)

Note: 10 days wait for result?
Below vid claim Tests are in Labs within 3hrs & 1day finish.
Govt promised #1 Covid safe Test security > Pop Up grubby [P] stalls?
Now Big Pharm slobbering over #1 Multiculural DNA data bank.

Only 46% residents with fever + cough got tested (Many are avoiding Consequences)
Isolating 3-10 days or more for results may cost them their job.
Swabs are more invasive than needles...notably for minors /sexual / assault victims

Showgrounds-Army / Hotels-Police + Wardens / Street Cnr-Ambo /SES

Victoria DNA Testing...
Import bans restrict Virus Labs to cleverly source worldly DNA from a Wet Market.
Travel bans restrict Virus Labs to cleverly source worldly DNA from a Multicultural City.
Govt $100 private test makes it attractive to collect DNA for parent companies.
Indeed! Pathologies that once said ( Fuck Off) Now run drive-thru services until Sept 30.

DNA Wacky Racers are all over Vic's one stop shop for their scoop of all sorts.
Researchers can pick'n'mix any family unit age sets from any country.(DNA shopping mall)
Lockdowns will likely continue until all ethnicity groups have been swabbed.
[Factcheck] Vic swabs/saliva test the "genetic ID" of Virus ( RNA) > Copies DNA

Fed Govt Covid GP Pathologies DNA swab (Note Twiggy's 10m BGI > #1+2)
# 1 Healius > GP > were Chinese 30% [SOLD] > BGH (CEO is AALD Director)
American Australian Leadership Dialogue Director now has Oz #1 Blood Bank
http://www.aald.org/
See also new comer 4 Cyte (Drive Thrus)
# 2 Melbourne Pathology / Sonic > Drive Thrus + Aged Care Tests
Huge US expansion > Jews/US Baptists [+] > Women's Birth DNA + Oz genetics
https://www.mps.com.au/coronavirus-covid-19/covid-19-dedicated-collectio...
# 3 +Hot Docs > DNA > Ancestry.com > (Legals/Paternity/Wills)
# 4 phn (+Hot Docs)

Vic Health Covid Pathologies
*Royal Melbourne- Chinese #1 Jack Ma - Alibaba Boss
https://www.thermh.org.au/news/rmh-and-precinct-partners-receive-million...
*Home-Kidz [ Spit Vile ] RM + Uni of Melbourne (Peter Doherty Institute) > o/s Labs.
21 March $6m Govt Grants > 28 June (1st Oz DNA Spit test)
https://www.vcgs.org.au/saliva
[ ATTENTION ] (Covid -19 The journey of your swab test) Video
100,000 Vic Samples tested in Lab with No Masks & Gloves only at start then none also.
https://www.doherty.edu.au/news-events/news/100000-covid-19-tests
Covid Trials (Aids Drug lopin/riton + Hydro/Chloro) 28 Jan /1st to recreate Corona...
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-51289897
https://www.ascot-trial.edu.au/pages/overview

Drive Thrus
Monash -Big Pharm
https://www.monash.edu/discovery-institute/engage/partnerships-and-industry
Alfred
https://www.alfredhealth.org.au/covid-19/clinical-support

* ipc > (Clinical Labs) Libs say a Labor Front...(Recently bid for #1 Healius)
Joined local Geneseq on Melanoma Testing
https://www.liberal.org.au/latest-news/2019/05/03/bill-shorten-must-answ...

*(Home Test) Compass > Cancer Council > Petty sure this ends up in US. (recheck)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u1RqiQ1K6RU

Coronavirus Vaccine Trials
*Nucleus > owns only Oz/US phase 1-4 o/n Trials > US Prism trial- hydro/chloro'
May- Bne/Mbne 1st Phase Testing of 131 on US Novavax Trials
https://biotechdispatch.com.au/news/orthocell-completes-recruitment-in-k...
*360 Bio Labs also Novavax
https://www.360biolabs.com/news/

Murdoch's Trial
https://www.mcri.edu.au/news/murdoch-children%E2%80%99s-research-institu...

As it stands the $100 fed Test vouchers run out by Sept 30 (Can be extended)
In that time Pathologies have gone from negative ( Closed shops)
To now 10,000 tests a day to doubling un-contracted 20,000+ /day.
They, themselves prove mandatory Covid -19 Tests are a waste of Money.

Pathologies now dive into the rich gene jacuzzi & get a jump on grounded world rivals.
This gift horse is simply too good to refuse...prized DNA access is a one off & paid for!

7 News: "Victoria Coronavirus Lockdown could be seen as racial profiling"
Acting CMO professor Paul Kelly explains the Hot Spots were a "very multicultural area of Melbourne" & home to "Many different ethnic groups & language groups."
https://7news.com.au/lifestyle/health-wellbeing/victoria-coronavirus-loc...

Lab's own video shows no masks & random gloves to test Oz #1 Corona Hot Spot.
Finishes where it begins > Pathologists knew that less than 1% of 100,000 had Covid-19.
They proved that once then proved it twice then proved it again on their covidsafe video.
Over 100,000 Vic tests ($10-20m) & Vic Hot Spot reveals the lowest cases on Oz record.
Politicians order all must get tested vs Pathologists broken record "It's a waste of time!"
Pathologists were right all along of course...Govt have no science to mandate useless testing.

So why does our Govt enforce Hot Spots often of less cases than nearby postcodes?
No evidence of isolating virus but fingerprints are all over world's richest DNA bank vault heist.

indo-dreaming's picture
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indo-dreaming commented Monday, 6 Jul 2020 at 8:28am

"Zen is Butch Vig??"

Ha ha i was wondering who he remind me of, does look a lot like Butch Vig.

shoredump's picture
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shoredump commented Monday, 6 Jul 2020 at 8:48am

Haha, going to read all of Zens posts in BV’s vocal tone now

zenagain's picture
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zenagain commented Monday, 6 Jul 2020 at 10:45am

Is it the glasses?

Butch is a better drummer than me.

1173

shortenism's picture
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shortenism commented Monday, 6 Jul 2020 at 2:00pm

Surely you don't have to go door knocking to find a deadly and infectious virus.. Surely it finds you.

factotum's picture
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factotum commented Monday, 6 Jul 2020 at 2:48pm
truebluebasher's picture
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truebluebasher commented Monday, 6 Jul 2020 at 6:26pm

Yesterday Qld Uni of Technology pre leaked letter addressed to WHO.

239 scientists from 32 countries say Coronavirus is Airborne.
Smaller in flight particles live for long periods
Air conditioning amplifies the effect thru utilities & transit!
https://7news.com.au/travel/coronavirus/coronavirus-is-airborne-say-239-...

Coronavirus droplets have been timed a 3hr life in the air.

Coronavirus exhalation of 40,000 droplets at 60,000km/hr travels over 8 metres
Allowing for light breeze a 20m circle is needed. "Wind" does break up the virus.
Constant Aircon is said to amplify the radius eg: (25m) obviously more in tunnels.

Scientists say it's possible to enter a lone, still weather street and contract the virus.
25m x 3hrs infects a peak swathe thru Mall, Sport-Entries, transit, Stations, Toilets.
Random 25m / 4 day infectious trail on metal surfaces after the carrier has vacated.

Gonna need a bigger app...we're talking swellnet Craig's covid-19 forecasting app.
Locate the Super Spreader before he locks down yer town'n'country.

JQ's picture
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JQ commented Tuesday, 7 Jul 2020 at 6:09am

60,000km/hr TBB? You've got a pretty hardcore sneeze on you there mate - that's a decent whack above escape velocity, no wonder it spread so far.

truebluebasher's picture
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truebluebasher commented Tuesday, 7 Jul 2020 at 9:04am

JQ...slowing up a bit! A good sneeze travels 'over' 60,000km/hr (Here's the link...)

Sneeze: 40,000 droplets of saliva are expelled from the mouth at over 60,000km/hr.
https://www.lifehacker.com.au/2020/04/how-far-do-sneeze-droplets-travel-...

Presume Gravity constrains exhale particle Speed within a 160km/hr Air chamber.

Just thinkin' if we pimp our Nostril Flares run it on Man Flu GTX...we grow wings.

Westofthelake's picture
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Westofthelake commented Tuesday, 7 Jul 2020 at 9:22am

60000km/h! That's like 48 times the speed of sound!

Spuddups's picture
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Spuddups commented Tuesday, 7 Jul 2020 at 2:27pm

Sounds like horse shit to me.

blackers's picture
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blackers commented Tuesday, 7 Jul 2020 at 8:17pm

Sorry TBB, 4.5 m/s or approx 16 Kmh according to one recent study. However the author does suggest a higher result could be possible if you tested “larger framed” individuals.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3613375/

Stok's picture
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Stok commented Tuesday, 7 Jul 2020 at 9:22pm

Can anyone tell me what's Australia's current Covid goal? Is it containment (flatten the curve) or eradication? Seems the messaging isn't as clear as it could be...

Also - I have one, fairly significant problem with our response to Covid - it's how testing is reported on globally, and how this information is used for decision making. Is there an international standard? It seems to be reported in any manner for which suits the Government.

For example - the last 2 weeks in Melbourne have shown a steady upward trend in positive test results. There has been no discussion about the timing in which these positive test subjects actually contracted the virus - which is actually the more important factor for determining control.

Who's to say that we ever really 'controlled' the first wave of Covid? Maybe it's been slowing building and bubbling away undetected until a few people actually got off their arse to get tested, and returned positive test results?

Or, who's to say that the virus is actually dying out, but the manner in which positive tests are being reported is showing this upward trend (unlikely I know...but trying to make a point).

p.s. couldn't agree more with the sentiment of sadness as to what Covid is doing to our world.

Distracted's picture
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Distracted commented Tuesday, 7 Jul 2020 at 9:50pm

Stok, good points.
There appears to be no consensus between governments in how to report positive test results.
So far a good measure appears to be the comparison between typical death rate and recent death rates = “excess deaths”. See nice summary article here.
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/04/16/tracking-covid-19-ex...

When the Vic premier says “we’re on the cusp of something very very bad” I get a bit worried and wonder where we are going and what the strategy is.

However still struggle to understand how bad the virus is. Japan seems to have managed it with minimal economic impact and very low death rate.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-53188847
While in the States the positive cases are taking off but if the death rate is 3%, where are all the fatalities? There will be a delay but seems like the death rate is dropping.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/03/health/coronavirus-mortality-testing....

Distracted's picture
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Distracted commented Wednesday, 8 Jul 2020 at 6:40am

Regarding Australia’s COVID strategy, I think we had accidentally almost achieved eradication once incoming international travelers were quarantined.
But now... we’ve stuffed it and it is goodbye “Pacific Bubble” and insteadwill now have a long term, economically painful suppression type strategy.

Oceanbeach's picture
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Oceanbeach commented Wednesday, 8 Jul 2020 at 6:46am

Just woke up with a horrible realisation and correct me if I’m wrong here....So with this lockdown announced yesterday regarding metro Melbourne, the way I understand it any surfer living within metro Melbourne is allowed to travel to surf but can only travel to surf those breaks with in the ring fenced zone, this being the Mornington Peninsula....for the next six weeks all of melbournes (law abiding) surfing population will be focussed on and only surfing from westernport right around to Portsea??!

GuySmiley's picture
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GuySmiley commented Wednesday, 8 Jul 2020 at 7:17am

It seems that way.

geek's picture
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geek commented Wednesday, 8 Jul 2020 at 8:02am

And could be all fixed with a simple statement “you must stay in LGA to exercise”. I honestly don’t know why they have given basically the entire population of Victoria free reign on the MP. It’s not just the beaches, red hill/Arthur’s seat/mountain bike areas are going to be absolutely swamped :-(

GuySmiley's picture
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GuySmiley commented Wednesday, 8 Jul 2020 at 8:28am

@geek, too true already over saturated on any sunny day - every pier on the MP will also be shoulder to shoulder with fishers and their rubbish.

Oceanbeach's picture
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Oceanbeach commented Wednesday, 8 Jul 2020 at 8:41am

Also crew who, in the first lockdown, weathered the storm at their holiday houses on the island or west coast can’t do it this time around.. the pines and gunna are going to be a circus

goofyfoot's picture
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goofyfoot commented Wednesday, 8 Jul 2020 at 8:45am

“Just woke up with a horrible realisation and correct me if I’m wrong here....So with this lockdown announced yesterday regarding metro Melbourne, the way I understand it any surfer living within metro Melbourne is allowed to travel to surf but can only travel to surf those breaks with in the ring fenced zone, this being the Mornington Peninsula....for the next six weeks all of melbournes (law abiding) surfing population will be focussed on and only surfing from westernport right around to Portsea??!“

Great

kidkaos's picture
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kidkaos commented Wednesday, 8 Jul 2020 at 9:00am

Might be time for you guys to purchase an UrbanSurf Season pass?

kidkaos

Oceanbeach's picture
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Oceanbeach commented Wednesday, 8 Jul 2020 at 9:11am

Guessing urban surf will be closed

goofyfoot's picture
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goofyfoot commented Wednesday, 8 Jul 2020 at 9:32am

Ha ha no thanks I’ll pass

shortenism's picture
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shortenism commented Wednesday, 8 Jul 2020 at 10:21am

Release the fear because that is all this is. Forget about it and it will go away. Lets face it the language has shifted to 'cases', the mortality rate is lower than the flu and its elderly or severely immuno compromised at risk. If you go door knocking and testing your gonna find anything. Add a $1500 payment in there wham. What is going on in Melbourne is a breach of human rights and I suggest anyone that thinks hard lock-downs and vaccines are the way forward needs to have a good look at themselves and their kids. The disease is not your enemy, never has been, its the way its being handled. The new normal being introduced is a society that will face lock downs by lock downs for anything into the future by region, suburbs, now buildings.. This is a great learning exercise. The buildings in Melbourne sit on land that are earmarked for over 800 new private dwellings. Coincidence? Wake up guys, we're getting played.

indo-dreaming's picture
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indo-dreaming commented Wednesday, 8 Jul 2020 at 11:01am
shortenism's picture
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shortenism commented Wednesday, 8 Jul 2020 at 11:31am

No Indo but it probably will be if the lockdowns come back!!!

truebluebasher's picture
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truebluebasher commented Wednesday, 8 Jul 2020 at 12:12pm

1918 Pandemic puts Victoria's 2nd wave into perspective...(Nothing unusual)
Crew here had been saying the borders were left in place for coming 2nd wave.
History shows that Oz were to ready for a 2nd wave outbreak sooner than not.

NSW Public Health Bulletin Vol 17 No 7-8
1st Wave 19th March - (13th April peak approx 400 Deaths) -27th May
2nd Wave 28th May - (1st July peak approx 800 Deaths) - 5th August

40% of Sydney had influenza
Sydney alone recorded 4,000 deaths
52% of deaths were aged 20-39 > (1891 Flu were aged over 60)
Indigenous, Samoans & Maoris were worst affected.
Oz total 16,000 deaths

https://www.phrp.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/NB06025.pdf

Vic Local's picture
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Vic Local commented Wednesday, 8 Jul 2020 at 1:28pm

"Wake up guys, we're getting played."
Looks like Shortenism has been doing some resurch on the web and knows more than all those expert doctors. Well done mate, tell us more. Who else is involved and what's their big geo-political objective?

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

happyppl's picture
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happyppl commented Wednesday, 8 Jul 2020 at 1:42pm

good info etc...but, nothings changed, carloads of crew rocking up at breaks not liveing in same household no social distanceing, off to the local bakery "etall" etc.
please Wear surgical gloves when filling up at YOUR garage, wash hands after paying bill, shop local, don't give mates lift to surf...oops better stop there could go on but as the blues bros quote goes "if the shit fits wear it"

happyppl

shortenism's picture
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shortenism commented Wednesday, 8 Jul 2020 at 3:21pm

Remember VIC, the shut downs were sold to the public as necessary to avoid ICU barrage or 'flatten the curve'. That has passed now, but the threat of lock-downs certainly hasn't. Even when the medical system (those expert doctors Vic) say they are well prepared. That's how these things work.. They nibble away step by step, the totalitarian tip toe. Its 2 steps forward but only 1 back.

A quote from the PM's speech today re Melbournians "This will be hard BUT you have done it before and you will be able to do it again, because you have proven that. You have demonstrated your ability to deal with this"... In other words you have proven you will comply.

JQ's picture
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JQ commented Wednesday, 8 Jul 2020 at 4:23pm

That's some conspiratorial nonsense right there shortenism. Your idiotic rhetoric and clear inability to discern what is and isn't a reliable source of information, mixed with a stunning case of dunning-Kruger combines to form someone who poses a danger both to themselves and to others.

Vic Local's picture
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Vic Local commented Wednesday, 8 Jul 2020 at 4:51pm

Spot on JQ. I'm normally relaxed about people promoting conspiracy theories, but this "covid 19 is a hoax" rubbish is dangerous to everyone.
When enough people share shortenism's attitude to Coronavirus lots of people die. He should fuck off to the USA or Brazil and pedal that crap over there with all his fellow travellers.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

GuySmiley's picture
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GuySmiley commented Wednesday, 8 Jul 2020 at 5:19pm

or the UK or Sweden

indo-dreaming's picture
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indo-dreaming commented Wednesday, 8 Jul 2020 at 5:21pm

Feel's weird when i agree with you guys.

shoredump's picture
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shoredump commented Wednesday, 8 Jul 2020 at 5:35pm

Yep, interesting news coming out of Sweden now regarding their failing economy. Lockdowns are what’s best. It is what it is.

Sometimes when you stare down an angry rhino, the bastard will just trample straight over the top of you...

upnorth's picture
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upnorth commented Wednesday, 8 Jul 2020 at 6:55pm

Failing economy in Sweden? And that's without lockdown.

Over 600k die in the UK every year - or just over 10k per week. The reported average age of Covid related deaths so far is 84 years - I’m predicting that over a 12 month period (March 2020 - March 2021), the total deaths in the U.K. will be around the normal rate of 600k...... some may have died a few months earlier than they were going to, but it was going to happen anyway. 'Excess deaths' around 10'000 for the two years to March 2022 imo. Meanwhile, today’s teens and twenty something’s are going to be working all their lives before the economic damage that is being caused will be paid back.

We need to move away from this narrative that “every death is a tragedy”. Every person in the history of time born before, say, 1908, is dead. Death is not usually a tragedy, but a fact of life. It is, of course, sometimes a tragedy, and in those situations we tend to share deep regret, but an 85 year old dying of Covid rather than Alzheimer’s, Parkinson’s, Dementia, Cancer, Heart Disease, pneumonia etc etc is not a tragedy - it’s just the cause of death. The vast majority of people dying from Covid have other diseases on their death certificate, they are documented for a reason.

Forming policy to “prevent” a death is just plain stupid. We can only delay death. The real tragedy is that in trying to prolong the life of an already ageing population, we are causing economic and social travesty for the young, the effects of which have not even started to play out.

Meanwhile tens of 1000's of out patients aren't receiving treatment at hospital, kids who won't lay eyes on a teacher for 5 months + slip into educational poverty, unemployment potentially rises by 2m. Yeah lockdown works.

What the UK Government has done imo (cheered on by the hysterical media) is wildly disproportionate to the threat the population as a whole actually faced with this virus. It rivals the second Iraq War for sheer folly in terms of political judgement.

JQ's picture
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JQ commented Wednesday, 8 Jul 2020 at 7:01pm

I guess human life is cheap to 'upnorth'.

upnorth's picture
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upnorth commented Wednesday, 8 Jul 2020 at 7:12pm

You've missed the point there JQ. The toll caused by lockdown policy may ultimately be higher by every measure, including human life. Hand-wringing achieves nothing.

views from the cockpit's picture
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views from the ... commented Wednesday, 8 Jul 2020 at 7:28pm

The distinct LACK of detailed info/stats that may/may not have been skewed on this Covid virus has me struggling to accept the fear and the rhetoric- see below for example:

Fifty percent to 80 percent of U.S. adults have oral herpes. According to the National Institutes of Health, about 90 percent of adults have been exposed to the virus by age 50. Once infected, a person will have herpes simplex virus for the rest of his or her life.
Oral Herpes | Johns Hopkins Medicinewww.hopkinsmedicine.org

Exactly who has died and of exactly what cause?

Old people generally don't get autopsies on death unless suspicious. Now that we are looking for a marker...