COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster

Craig's picture
Craig started the topic in Wednesday, 18 Mar 2020 at 7:44pm

I've created a spreadsheet forecast which I'll update as we go..

There's also a website with live running data.. https://sites.google.com/view/stayhomeaustralia

goofyfoot's picture
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goofyfoot Monday, 13 Jul 2020 at 5:25pm

“You know that ECL / High Pressure under Tasmania weather pattern that's been creating shit surf conditions in Victoria? Well I blame Dan Andrews for that too.”

Well VL, shit conditions maybe for you westerners but we’ve been having a stellar run over ere

indo-dreaming's picture
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indo-dreaming Monday, 13 Jul 2020 at 6:50pm

@Guy

Ha ha are you really trying to use the comment section on an age article to try disprove that roughly 50% of Victorians believe the BLM protest have contributed to Victorias infection rates? (either directly or through causing people to lapse of prevention measures.)

Oh please we both know that is a totally ridiculous way to prove anything only way we could really prove or own opinion either way is off there was a proper survey with huge numbers of people from totally random walks of life.

In your life you most likely only here one view and in my life im more likely to hear another view, thats the bubbles we live in, even in social media ect

Anyway glad you didnt use a Guardian article to say 100% of Victorians support Dan and think he is doing a great job or something..

Anyway despite the Age being slightly to the left and expect a huge number of readers also, it still had some great comments in there like.

"It's not the outbreak that will do or undo Dan Andrews, it's how he carries himself now that counts. If he shows humility, his popularity will return, but if he continues the belligerence and the blaming of 'ordinary people' over his complete stuff up with contract security firms, people will lose faith in his ability to handle this ongoing crisis. Then again, there's no one else...."

"Dan ‘s problem is he makes every decision on what’s good for labor or the trade union movement not the people of Victoria. Hence the CFA debacle , hence hiring private security guards, hence not disclosing the name of cedar meats for a week which was reckless as out side visitors to the facility didn’t know they were exposed for a week and supporting BLM rally in a pandemic sending completely wrong message to the public when for the previous 2 months it had all been about messaging. Otherwise he is doing fine."
Amanda nailed it:

“ Gladys Berejiklian took a firmer line on the Black Lives Matter protests than did Daniel Andrews. That sent a clear message to all of NSW that she was taking the public health risk very seriously. That matters, not so much for the purpose of being careful with the protest or looking tough but to get people to see that she was taking it seriously and so should they.”

"To all the Dan Andrews apologists, the proof is in the pudding. 273 cases in one day in Victoria, 6 in total for all other states (12/7/2020).

Call in the army to take over management of this crisis before it's too late!"

Etc

indo-dreaming's picture
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indo-dreaming Monday, 13 Jul 2020 at 6:55pm

"You know that ECL / High Pressure under Tasmania weather pattern that's been creating shit surf conditions in Victoria? Well I blame Dan Andrews for that too.”

"Well VL, shit conditions maybe for you westerners but we’ve been having a stellar run over ere"

Many areas of Vicco have actually been really good of late lots of light offshores and nice sized ground swells for the beachies.

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GuySmiley Monday, 13 Jul 2020 at 7:11pm

Indo, je bent gewoon een oude ezel dragende wagen voor uiterst rechts en op die basis altijd vol onzin.

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Westofthelake Monday, 13 Jul 2020 at 7:22pm

Never fear, Greg Hunt is here...to show us how to put a mask on. ( I think it may have been his first)
https://www.reddit.com/r/CoronavirusDownunder/comments/hqboq9/greg_hunt_...

(Haha I think you can hear him counting 1 , 2 to himself......he's going to have trouble when he starts wearing glasses)

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adam12 Monday, 13 Jul 2020 at 7:19pm

Indo, if you think The Age is left leaning then you haven't followed what happened to Fairfax in the last five or so years. I thought Gladys prevaricated on the BLM protests. First she called them illegal and said she would send in the cops, then later said they could go ahead but social distance. It is easy to piss outside the tent Indo and pile on a leader who doesn't fit your politics, but what would you do as leader (either side) in the midst of a global pandemic with the germ still out there, and BLM happens. What is your decision? I think if you look at how events unfolded and how different leaders responded, you can see how difficult it is to make a call.

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D-Rex Monday, 13 Jul 2020 at 8:26pm

Guy, you can write in French if you think that helps advance your argument but to be honest, crap is crap no matter how you want to say it. The Age an unbiased source? That's like surveying Nimbin on legalising drugs.

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zenagain Monday, 13 Jul 2020 at 9:25pm

Rex, I think Guys last post was Dutch or maybe German?

You aren't Flemish are you Guy?

My French is pretty ordinary but I think I got the gist of your second last post.

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GuySmiley Monday, 13 Jul 2020 at 10:14pm

6th generation Australian zen who had too much free time today :/

zenagain's picture
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zenagain Monday, 13 Jul 2020 at 10:42pm

Naru hodou.

(Japanese for "i see")

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truebluebasher Friday, 14 Aug 2020 at 9:50pm

OZ arrival Quarantine review + Latest updates

Forward by Dr Paul Finlay
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/05/hotel-quarantine-a-disaste...
+ Thanks to ABC
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-09/serious-mental-health-incidents-i...

Pandemic Oz Introduction by Dutto.
29 Jan- Oz/NZ - $1,000/Chinese evacuation to Christmas Island quarantine camp.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/01/30/outcry-builds-over-austr...
Ironically the camp of 278 enjoyed outdoor games + Trad Festivals + No (SD)
Possibly the most relaxed SD of all coronavirus lockdowns.

o/s invasion
19/26 March - Comm' Govt (Limbo) relents to SAR assisting Cruise Passengers.
Govt puts up full cost to quarantine passengers in NSW/WA Hotels
27th March- People walk thru Hotel door with others. (No Strict entry policy)

OZ - 20th March (Borders Closed) Commonwealth Pub Rules
28 March 2020 AHPPC mandates o/s arrivals quarantine in supervised hotels.
+ Covid-19 Test requirements within first 2 days + Day/s 10-12
No plans for tenants protection.
Secured by Local Police supported by ADF forces (Also home compliance checks)
Notes: Not a long term solution & will explore other models in the future.

Each State's tab is shared equally with Fed Govt.
Fed Govt: Not an equal arrangement as Sydney requires more support than Tassie.

tbb
News reported 1,000's of untold exemptions from Syd / Perth / Mbne Hotels.
Health Staff were sacked for revealing many exemptions re: CEO's / VIPs / Pollies
Mostly by transfers to flights out but also Oz GP appointments for stress illness.
Suicide & miscarriage cases due to no air or yard, worse than prison conditions.
Also recall the Ships, Air ports, Nursing Homes, School/care, Restaurant outbreaks.

*NT / Darwin -24th March (Borders closed)
3rd April - NT (Quarantine rates) $2,500 / room
7th April Arrival > 9th April Woman 32 (Escapes NT Hotel Lockdown).
15th June- Mandatory Test within 3 days + Day 11-14

*WA / Perth -1st April (Borders Closed )
Feds let Viral Cruises in to roast WA + (No quarantine - Jetted half the Virus out.)
1 lady doctor / no PPE minds 600 Hotel quarantine coming & going.(Gets sacked)
Feds cart infected on Public/Private Health promo of 4 hospitals...(Like Sydney!)
4th April -Man 35 (5 repeat Hotel Fire Escape breaches) Jailed 1 of 6 months/Spd.

30 June Review- $14,781,550 / 5,700 arrivals (14 days $2,593/adult)
17th July - All international arrivals must pay for Quarantine.(Prices n/a)

*New Zealand - 19th March (Borders Closed)
10th April NZ Motel Quarantine is free of Charge > Daily Strolls > Chef Meals.
https://ourauckland.aucklandcouncil.govt.nz/articles/news/2020/05/quaran...
19 May (40 day Review) 7755 @ $6200 / adult = $50m [12+ cases]
4th July Brisbane Woman 43(-)scales NZ Quarantine fence-caught 2 hrs later.
9th July Man 32(+) jumps NZ Quarantine fence-caught 70min later) > Extra Police
Quarantine Fees are set to Follow Oz in weeks ahead..
https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/nz-s-free-quarantine-accommo...

Check the Link to NZ in Aussie Detention Camps...there's a hint of comeback?

*Qld / Brisbane -3rd April (Borders Closed)
8/9th April- Lady 45> Buy band Aids $1,300 + No clean Towels (Bye) $2,000 + Jail
5 May Asperger sufferer scales Rydges +fire stairs to get Air/light/water.(Police raid)
June Rydges / July Westin (Mixing -No Tests) > ADF/Police.
13 June - Elderly Couple NO Air or Light or Balcony.
1st July Qld Quarantine Fees ($200 o/n) - Q 14 days $2,800 / Child $455
No Jab Policy + 10 days $2,000 / Child $325
Aug - 25y/old escapes Toowoomba Hotel Quarantine on Day 9.

*Gold Coast -3rd April (Border Closed)
30th March - 1st Gold Coast quarantine Hotel
3rd July - 2nd GC quarantine Hotel "Voco" for Vico isolation. Shh!

*NSW / Sydney - 8th July (Border Closed) (See above Extra)
Extra: Border Force Police / ADF / Red Cross
Only NSW can claim back every cent from every state Govt's traveller's Tabs.

Shock Jocks wrongfully assume other states can copy NSW...(Wake Up...idiots!)
Hillsong's Southern Ocean's #1 Kill + Buckets of spills > Hotels / Buses / Planes.
Shock Jocks insanely barrack NSW Hallmark of Quarantine (Wake Up...idiots!)

27th March - 33 Cruising Doctors walk out of Quarantine only 6 are caught.
4th July-Lady 39 escapes Q/Marriott Fire Escape (45m > C. Quay) Fined $1000
This lady takes out the security guard & runs off demanding to breathe fresh air!
3-8th July-Qld lady 63 escaped Syd Marriot to board Plane ($1,000 / but No re-do).
6 July CMO + NSW Police + ADF - "Zero Breach Claim?" (Truth nsw has highest!)
Review: 11,634 Q-Test Day 10 = (+)59 + 29 March-Symptomatic 3314 = (+) 105
18 July NSW Quarantine Fees ($214 o/n) Q 14 days $3,000 / Child $500
Day 10 Testing (Refusal-Less >2%) > Extra 10 Days quarantine at No Extra Cost)
19 July -Qldurr 28 escapes for a cigarette (Fight with Police)

*SA/ Adelaide - 24th March (Borders Closed)
3rd July Cops dob in Unmasked Woman Hotel Guard (Bye) Sent her Home!
10th July City Hostel $ 5,060 (SD) Raid / No Plan > 4 arrivals > Hotel Quarantine.
29 July Walkers Arms (Isolates guests) Transfer Vic case > Medi Hotel

18th July SA Quarantine Fees. 14 days $3,000/ Child $500
Test within 24 hrs + Day 12 of Quarantine (From Vic )

* Victoria / Melbourne (No Way in or Out)
Feds used Melbourne to rush viral Chinese flights out > 7 Planes in one Hour.
Note: Victoria swore to keep Quarantine free for #2 Oz Airport?
Feds were not gonna supply Vic Labor with Lib Sydney pack...nor bill the states.
Feds 50% Vic security Bills were mounting - Joint Nod' Sub letting (So it seems!)
11th April Hotel Suicide {rip} + 14th April Hotel Miscarriage {rip}
20 April -Man escapes Crowne Plaza Security into Vic Police quarters
June : Untrained Staff + Inappropriate behaviour + Unsafe practices + Carpooling + Sexual favours.+ Sharing belongings.
June / July AHPPC recommend a Top Ten Hot Spot Mop up.
All Led to NSW border Closure + Federal Inquiry into Hotel Quarantine (Below)

Vic International Borders are Closed (Still No Quarantine Fees) Mandatory Testing.
Fed Govt inquiry will soon introduce a fee system across all States > Vic.

*Tasmania / Hobart - 21st March (Borders Closed )
19th April Woman (Chain Smoker) leaves Hotel room & swears (Arrested/Charged)
1 July - Lib donors Essential FIFO Crowne Plaza Subbies (Ditch Tas. Quarantine)
13th July (Review): Tas / Feds shared $8m Hotel Quarantine Bill
Tasmania is aware of o/s Hotel Quarantine.(No o/s Airport?) Best to link Premier.
https://www.examiner.com.au/story/6831379/quarantine-hotel-covid-19-cost...

*ACT / Canberra 7th July (Closed Borders) >Vic.(Again a bit tricky) Chief Minister.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6821284/victorians-banned-from-fl...
Oddly modelling was done for ACT Hotel quarantine (Breakout)
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6800559/quarantine-breach-poses-g...
Jindabyne Crossroads Hotel outbreak shows how it all goes horribly wrong.

*Oz Hotel Quarantine Inquiry
10th July - The Major Hotel Quarantine Partner Scomo calls for Vic inquiry.
https://www.sbs.com.au/news/inquiry-into-victorian-hotel-quarantine-bung...
Chief Medical Officer Paul Kelly "There have been very few breaches but we have seen, as has been reported in Victoria, a single breach, even if it's low risk can lead to a catastrophic outcome."
He means to say ongoing repeat Hotel Quarantine breaches OZ/NZ wide...Shh!

Inquiry Teaser:
"Genomic sequencing traced a big proportion of coronavirus cases in Victoria to breaches in Hotels hosting returned travellers."

All that from a few swabs people! (DNA is the next big thing... get with the Plan!)

indo-dreaming's picture
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indo-dreaming Tuesday, 14 Jul 2020 at 8:34am

@Guy

Saya tk mgrti bahasa itu, tapi pasti anda bicara omong kosong, karena anda selalu bicara omong kosong, karena anda orang goblok.

overthefalls's picture
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overthefalls Tuesday, 14 Jul 2020 at 9:24am

Aduh, Indo! Anda bicara lancar, tapi kasar.

zenagain's picture
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zenagain Tuesday, 14 Jul 2020 at 9:31am

I see Swellnet has a few cunning linguists.

Pops's picture
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Pops Tuesday, 14 Jul 2020 at 9:32am

I see what you did there, Zen...

GuySmiley's picture
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GuySmiley Tuesday, 14 Jul 2020 at 9:44am

buongiorno informazioni, tua madre era una amatrice e tuo padre sapeva di mirtilli rossi

overthefalls's picture
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overthefalls Tuesday, 14 Jul 2020 at 9:47am

You’re right, Zen. But there are also a few fellatio-meisters!

truebluebasher's picture
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truebluebasher Tuesday, 14 Jul 2020 at 10:24am

New Porn genre ..."Enraged Hot Chix just got Hotter"
[1:15] Enraged Hot chick refuses to hook up at the local Covid Party. WTF.
Yeah! I know! If that don't sound crazy enough!
Chick just gets Hotter the more enraged she gets...has to laugh to tone it down!

Hot Chick : "Some People are speculating that this sounds fake on line"...

indo-dreaming's picture
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indo-dreaming Tuesday, 14 Jul 2020 at 12:24pm

"Aduh, Indo! Anda bicara lancar, tapi kasar."

Yeah "goblok" is not a word i would use in Indonesia or if i do i use it very carefully, it's considered a pretty rough word by many, my wife gets angry at me when i use it.

Seems it translates on google translate as "Stupid" but it can be seen as a lot worse, so if anyone out there knows a little bahasa Indonesia better to say "bodoh" for stupid, less harsh/rough.

overthefalls's picture
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overthefalls Tuesday, 14 Jul 2020 at 12:51pm

It could be worse, Indo; calling somebody “anjing”, “monyet” or even “setan” is next level insulting. I should know; I used to cop some colourful sprays from my hot-headed ex, but I usually deserved it!

blowfly's picture
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blowfly Tuesday, 14 Jul 2020 at 2:19pm

New Yorker
Trump

indo-dreaming's picture
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indo-dreaming Tuesday, 14 Jul 2020 at 3:28pm

@ overthefalls

Yeah for sure heaps worse words but goblok is one of those words i tend to use just mucking around and then once in a blue moon it's slips out in Indonesia in a circumstance where i shouldn't say it.

factotum's picture
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factotum Tuesday, 14 Jul 2020 at 5:05pm

truebluebasher's picture
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truebluebasher Wednesday, 15 Jul 2020 at 11:39am

Gold Coast {No Vacancy} Signs are going up!
Police State ramps Plate Checks on NSW [Share The Spirit] + Vic's [On The Move]
http://www.mygc.com.au/police-checking-every-nsw-vehicle-at-queensland-b...

Goldie Mayor's response is to move the border south to the end of the queue.
http://www.mygc.com.au/gold-coast-mayor-pushes-ahead-with-plans-to-move-...

? Lister Baby Yoda simply surfed his way around the Mayor's line in the sand.
https://twitter.com/GCBulletin/status/1282778169825652736/photo/1

All powerful high & mighty Judge Dannii flew over all their heads. "Whatever!"

Southern Exodus queue for Goldie no fun, no balcony Hi-rise Quarantine Holidays.
P&O Cruiserz can still pay the $200 extra for hands-on Southern State Hot Hotels.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/tamarathiessen/2020/07/13/australia-nsw-hot...

Gold Coast is upping Testing for influx of Southern Shock Jocks ("We told you so!")
http://www.mygc.com.au/three-new-pop-up-testing-clinics-set-up-on-gold-c...

Southern Media Qld Outbreak Newsbreak Afterthenextbreak or one after, for sure!

Gold Coast upcoming major Events that are proceeding...
Oct : Coolangatta Gold
Nov: Schoolies

truebluebasher's picture
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truebluebasher Thursday, 16 Jul 2020 at 9:05pm

NSW COVID-19 Cases & Community Profile by The University of Sydney
tbb doesn't wanna blow up NSW, best to toss this ticking time bomb over to Craig
https://covid19-data.sydney.edu.au/

Here's how The NY Times Flagship portrays the World's Hottest Spot.
https://static01.nyt.com/images/2020/03/03/world/coronavirus-map-promo/c...
If USA paints Australia as dead...well I guess the Sydney Uni wasted their time then!

PS: tbb did some checking...Basically it's a Free generic Map & Oz in red as default.
https://walkerlibrary.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/Oceania.png

Newspaper reels it out when Oz cases rise...nothing sinister just cheap & lazy!
Great effect though...tbb is almost half as scared as Scomo.

inzider's picture
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inzider Friday, 17 Jul 2020 at 7:06am

Seems indo dreaming has been somewhat vindicated in the BLM protest and a case spike.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Friday, 17 Jul 2020 at 7:27am

Actually, that's not true (re: BLM + case spike).

indo-dreaming's picture
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indo-dreaming Friday, 17 Jul 2020 at 8:34am

Reality is we may never know if cases developed from protest because not all cases can be traced, not all people develop symptoms and not all people that get mild symptoms get tested.

We do know a few things though a gathering of 10K people in a pandemic with a very infectious virus is the total opposite of what we should be doing .

We also know people are monkey see monkey do, and despite what some may think it did change how people viewed prevention measures like social distancing or just how people reacted to any further advice.

When you send people conflicting mixed information, people tend not to listen.

The proof is now in the pudding.

Will many deny this because it doesn't fit their political or social agenda? 100%.

Does that change the reality of the situation....NO sadly not.

And sadly as a Victorian and a business owner in time i will possibly suffer the flow on effect because of a selfish minority that felt virtue signalling was more important than the health of the community.

wingnut2443's picture
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wingnut2443 Friday, 17 Jul 2020 at 8:39am

Are we looking at the same data, graph, Ben?

Sure looks like a correlation to me:

https://twitter.com/Gergyl/status/1283300784751308800/photo/1

Uptick in cases in the 8-14 day window after the BLM protest. Data and graph shows it pretty clearly, doesn't it?

How can anyone conclude it doesn't?

thermalben's picture
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thermalben Friday, 17 Jul 2020 at 9:02am

Professor Paul Kelly (acting Chief Medical Officer), on July 1st: "there is no evidence that there was - has been any spread from the Black Lives Matter protest."

https://www.health.gov.au/news/acting-chief-medical-officer-interview-on-1-july-2020-about-covid-19

From yesterday's Victoria Coronavirus update:

Cases currently linked to public housing in North Melbourne, Flemington and Carlton are as follows: 

  • 250 cases are residents of various public housing towers in North Melbourne and Flemington. Investigations are continuing into how these cases are linked. 
  • 41 cases are residents of various public housing towers in Carlton. Investigations are continuing into if and/or how these cases are linked. 

Cases currently linked to key outbreaks are as follows:

  • 157 cases have been linked to Al-Taqwa College
  • 37 cases have been linked to Somerville Retail Services in Tottenham
  • 31 cases have been linked to Menarock Life Aged Care facility in Essendon
  • 29 cases have been linked to JBS abattoir in Brooklyn
  • 23 cases have been linked to Glendale Aged Care facility in Werribee
  • 21 cases have been linked to Estia Health aged care facility in Ardeer
  • 19 cases have been linked to the Northern Hospital
  • 16 cases have been linked to the Alfred Hospital
  • 16 cases have been linked to Brunswick Private Hospital
  • 15 cases have been linked to LaManna Supermarket Essendon
  • 6 cases have been linked to HWL Ebsworth Lawyers in Melbourne
  • 5 cases have been linked to St Basil’s Homes for the Aged in Fawkner

https://www.dhhs.vic.gov.au/coronavirus-update-victoria-thursday-16-july-2020

stunet's picture
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stunet Friday, 17 Jul 2020 at 9:07am

"If we are to live with COVID-19 then Australia’s leaders need to tell us what that means"

"...we were told to expect outbreaks as the economy gradually reopened. Setbacks were not supposed to derail the unwinding of restrictions but would be cauterised as they arose. The unspoken core of this approach must be that some disease and some deaths was deemed acceptable by our governments, if it was manageable. If this strikes you as diabolical then don’t drive because the same trade-off is in play every time you get behind the wheel: most of us clearly agree that the benefit is worth the real risk of being maimed or dying."

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blowfly Friday, 17 Jul 2020 at 10:00am

I think we are at a crucial phase in the pandemic. If the current wave can be ended so that cases come down to zero or very close to it, then we can then rely on quarantine procedures to prevent new infections entering the country or to isolate and prevent the spread if they do enter. The analogy that comes to mind is putting out spotfires as opposed to confronting a bushfire front. Effective vaccines would then ultimately reduce the incidence to a level low enough to allow the opening of international travel. The hope is that the economic costs of the restrictions will be lower than the costs of a continuing pandemic while, at the same time, lives are saved. The blame game is a waste of time and unnecessarily politicises an issue that should be above politics.

truebluebasher's picture
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truebluebasher Friday, 17 Jul 2020 at 11:43am

6th June [ BLM ]

[ WHAT ABOUT WHITES LIVE MATTER ]

[ BLM PROTEST RALLY PROTEST VIGIL ] continues into day 41.

24th June-
Health Minister: "We know that there are 4 cases directly linked with that Protest"
"Coronavirus had not spread at the Rallies"

Fed CMO Brendon Murphy: "Protests had not resulted in community transmission."

Vic CHO Brett Sutton : "Don't think BLM protest has contributed"
"We're not seeing people who've clearly acquired it there."
https://www.sbs.com.au/news/greg-hunt-says-black-lives-matter-protests-c...

26th June (Pollies/Medics debate BLM but big chief blames Vic > Family outbreaks)
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-26/coronacheck-victoria-black-lives-...

15th July (am) Australian: [ BLM protest linked to Tower Cluster ]
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/coronavirus-black-lives-matter-pro...

15th July (pm) [reply] 7News : { BLM cluster refuted by Heath Authorities }
DHSS: "We are aware of 6 confirmed cases who attended BLM protest.
(Currently) there is no evidence to suggest they acquired the Virus from BLM."
None of 'these cases' reside at The Housos.
(Currently) no known nor suspected episodes of transmission occurred at BLM."
https://7news.com.au/lifestyle/health-wellbeing/melbourne-coronavirus-cl...

16th July- (Tweet) Eric Abetz : [ The Black Lives Matter marches were not only Toxic for what they represented but also for their contribution in spreading COVID-19. And Labor & Greens encouraged them. They need to take responsibility ]

17th July- Joannenova stokes the flamin' turd..." My Gaydar is on fire! "
http://joannenova.com.au/tag/coronavirus/

[News] LBTGQIA > Lefties > BLM > Housos > Vic > NSW > OZ > End of the World.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8521847/Sydneys-COVID-19-cluste...

Distracted's picture
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Distracted Friday, 17 Jul 2020 at 1:21pm

@craig, do I recall a few pages ago in the thread that there was nothing to worry about when number of positive results in Vic hit 200? ;-)
With today’s results of 400 in Vic is it actually possible to track and contain the virus or has the genie escaped?

inzider's picture
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inzider Friday, 17 Jul 2020 at 1:31pm

So
"Victorian health authorities have confirmed a link between two COVID-19 cases in people who attended the Black Lives Matter protest in Melbourne’s CBD just over a month ago, and the cluster of at least 242 cases in public housing towers in the city’s inner northwest."

Dumb fucks who protested are retarded. Simple fact.

blowfly's picture
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blowfly Friday, 17 Jul 2020 at 2:00pm

I haven't seen that reported insider. Do you have a link?

zenagain's picture
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zenagain Friday, 17 Jul 2020 at 2:04pm

I haven't got a link but I read the same on news.com.au a day or two ago.

They've gone silent on it again but I definitely read it there.

blowfly's picture
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blowfly Friday, 17 Jul 2020 at 2:07pm

It's a bit sad zen but these days we probably need to know who published it if it isn't in all media.

sypkan's picture
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sypkan Friday, 17 Jul 2020 at 2:18pm

seems to be a pretty heavy case of denial going on, we'll find out eventually

in the US they actively told contact tracers to not ask covid + patients if they attended blm protests

crazy shit

Vic Local's picture
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Vic Local Friday, 17 Jul 2020 at 3:12pm

inzider. Those News Limited stories were a disgraceful beat-up.

This is the response from DHHS.

“We are aware of six confirmed cases who attended the Black Lives Matter protest,” the department said. “Currently there is no evidence to suggest they acquired the virus from the protest.

“None of these cases are known to reside at a major public housing complex. Currently no known nor suspected episodes of transmission occurred at the protest itself.”

News Limited, where the truth goes to die.

sypkan's picture
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sypkan Friday, 17 Jul 2020 at 3:30pm

“We are aware of six confirmed cases who attended the Black Lives Matter protest,” the department said. “Currently there is no evidence to suggest they acquired the virus from the protest."

fair enough, also no evidence to suggest they unwittingly spread it around at the protest either... yet...

“None of these cases are known to reside at a major public housing complex. Currently no known nor suspected episodes of transmission occurred at the protest itself.”

also fair enough, none of the cases 'reside' there...

some very pedantic semantics and quoting going on, as always...

either way, to deny the probability of infection at a mass rally like that just comes across as dumb

blowfly's picture
blowfly's picture
blowfly Friday, 17 Jul 2020 at 3:31pm

Typical stuff. Pick on the one aspect of transmission that may have some potential for racist divison and focus on that and nothing else. Straight out of the KKK playbook.

I'm not a racist but....
I'm not a racist butt....
I'm a racist butth.....
I'm just a racist butthole!

sypkan's picture
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sypkan Friday, 17 Jul 2020 at 3:32pm

gawd you talk some shit

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sypkan Friday, 17 Jul 2020 at 3:35pm

its just nonsensical and unscientific to not consider it a point of transmission

yet here we are

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Vic Local Friday, 17 Jul 2020 at 4:16pm

Sypkan, there's no semantics at all with the DHHS statement.
There's simply no evidence people caught Covid 19 at the rally, and no evidence it spread to the public housing blocks from the protest. There's no wriggle room for different interpretations at all. I can't believe you're trying to defend the News Limited beat up using the semantic argument.
"its (sic) just nonsensical and unscientific to not consider it a point of transmission". The BLM protest has been considered a possible point of transmission. Very smart people are tracking and tracing cases as I type, but as I said before they've found no evidence people caught or spread the virus at the BLM protest.

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indo-dreaming Friday, 17 Jul 2020 at 4:24pm

A decent percentage of cases are untraceable though, not to mention the cases we know about are only from people tested a lot of people also dont show signs of infection but can still be contagious.

If people had known there would be half a dozen people with Covid-19 at the protest, would they still go?

You would hope most wouldn't because it would be like playing Russian roulette.

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factotum Friday, 17 Jul 2020 at 4:42pm

What's this BLM guff? Surely it was Muslims and Ramadan and immigrants in general??

https://www.crikey.com.au/2020/06/30/is-racism-at-sky-a-mistake-or-a-bus...

"She [Credlin] claimed on her show that Melbourne’s new outbreak could be blamed on “poorly-assimilated migrants” from the South Sudanese community who couldn’t speak English and had ignored social distancing in an “end-of-Ramadan feast”.

It was based on unconfirmed reports that an Eid celebration sparked an outbreak, and linked that — seemingly without evidence — to a community that is 90% Christian, making the claim more laughable."

Then again, if the messenger and the message are "laughable", what do you call the public regurgitators?

The usual media suspects get paid too...

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indo-dreaming Friday, 17 Jul 2020 at 5:08pm

A few weeks ago the ethic aspect seemed to be implied by Dan Andrews who danced around it when he blamed family gatherings and then the Victoria Chief Health Officer Brett Sutton said a few things related to ethnic groups, it was even talked about on ABC Radio.

They were trying to blame it on misinformation from social media from their countries or lack of this or that .

If it held any truth i think its more likely they watched the news and saw thousands of people on the streets and didnt take things seriously after that.

Which you cant blame them for.

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Vic Local Friday, 17 Jul 2020 at 5:09pm

Not to mention the initial wave of Covid 19 was very much brought in by well off and very white travellers who skied in Aspen and then went to their holiday homes on the Mornington Peninsula, + the Ruby Princess mob. Funny how Credlin didn't bring in race for that little outbreak.