COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster

Craig's picture
Craig started the topic in Wednesday, 18 Mar 2020 at 7:44pm

I've created a spreadsheet forecast which I'll update as we go..

There's also a website with live running data.. https://sites.google.com/view/stayhomeaustralia

GuySmiley's picture
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GuySmiley commented Wednesday, 8 Jul 2020 at 7:33pm

Relax Indo occasionally I make good sense but I must say when I agree with you both of us are wrong ..... just joking Indo haha

JQ's picture
JQ's picture
JQ commented Wednesday, 8 Jul 2020 at 8:09pm

I'm not buying the faux compassion upnorth. I would suggest that the loudest voices promoting this concept that you have posted here (not necessarily yourself) are more concerned about their share portfolio / their business interests than the health and well being of the people.

Lock down need not have such devastating consequences, but this requires governments willing to listen to experts and to stimulate the economy properly. It also requires governments willing to look after their populations, not just their wealthy donors.

If you want to dig into the social and health impacts of economic policy, have a crack at austerity and the punitive style of welfare pursued both here in Aus and in the UK.

Lets revisit your statements in a few months and see how the US and Brazil are faring.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/08/warning-of-serious-brain-d...

The emerging information about the lasting effects of corona virus are looking really awful, the prudent course of action is to do everything and anything to prevent widespread infection with this disease.

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Wednesday, 8 Jul 2020 at 8:25pm

Un-fucking-believable that people are still pushing the "we need to open up the economy line".
I will let you muppets in on a little secret. The economy is not going to recover unless we can control the medical problem. People aren't going to go to cafes, take flights, see movies, or go back to work when those activities may kill them. That's a fucking reality you idiots are just going to have to accept.
Every time some fucking arse encourages behaviour that spreads the virus, they are just putting people's lives in danger and stalling the economic recovery. I loathe you morons.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

mikehunt207's picture
mikehunt207's picture
mikehunt207 commented Wednesday, 8 Jul 2020 at 8:45pm

Gotta say I,m with you on this Viclocal, after round one you,d think people would have learnt something? Same arguments again and now look at how its going. Nothing will surprise you like people I guess.
Shorty is just a shit stirrer or a bot even , nobody else is on that bandwagon.

blowfly's picture
blowfly's picture
blowfly commented Wednesday, 8 Jul 2020 at 8:49pm

die-2

Stok's picture
Stok's picture
Stok commented Wednesday, 8 Jul 2020 at 9:36pm

I recall reading a quote along the lines of 'even in the midst of the polio outbreak, we still put people up on the moon'. Source unknown, but it does highlight what's different now, compared to then.

We've effectively become consumers of fear - the media is having a field day and it's all there for us to see - always. Headlines such as 'Melbourne in grips of killer virus' were in the news today. It's available in some many forms and is constantly updating...tracking, showing growth, showing it's out of control etc.

Anyone remember a month or so ago when that poor bloke in QLD in his 30s died of Covid? Front page news. Stoking the flames of fear. Turned out it was a error in testing, but the fear was already there.

Now, I'm not saying the fear is unjustifiable, and I'm no covid doubter. But I am cautious that experts do react to public opinion, and to public sentiment. Experts and policy makers tread the line between the right thing to do, and the thing which will make them look best to their voters. As a society I feel though we're going backwards - borders are closing, travel is becoming harder, business are closing and punters will be less keen to try opening new ones up. Will it be worth it - who knows?

p.s. Chapel Street is packed right now...could easily mistake it for a Saturday night back in 2019. Last drinks taste great with a side of community transmission!

upnorth's picture
upnorth's picture
upnorth commented Wednesday, 8 Jul 2020 at 11:33pm

How long would you go on stimulating the economy at the current rate JQ? Given that the UK government has already committed to borrowing £225 billion and even today have announced an extra £30 billion in the budget with £12 billion specifically targeted at coronavirus measures. These aren't small figures and its all on tick.

A vaccine isn't coming anytime soon, current spending is unsustainable, children's education is going backwards, mass unemployment looms as even with massive handouts it is impossible to save every business. We are already looking at decades to recover which will have its own public health implications. We know which groups are high risk and which aren't, protect those who are and anyone else who chooses to can get on with it.

I'm aware of the neurological quirks of covid, the mrs is a specialist stroke nurse and is treating some patients with covid related stroke. Her team are working with counterparts in Italy and Asia, its certainly unusual but the number of cases is very small. Good fodder for the MSM though.

GuySmiley's picture
GuySmiley's picture
GuySmiley commented Wednesday, 8 Jul 2020 at 11:49pm

I disagree with upnorth's initial comments above as they relate to Covid19 but he reminded me of another issue around death.

What I'm about to raise might be highly sensitive to some, its just my personal view. My question is at what point should the medical profession and religions allow the frail elderly to peacefully slip away rather than aggressively medically treating people for little, none or a negative return? It's a genuine question from someone who has witnessed three elderly relatives in the last weeks/months of their lives needlessly undergo major surgical interventions with all the associated trauma and pain. A fourth elderly relative had such severe dementia she suffered horrific distress while fighting for her last few days. I also have a unique insight into aged care having worked in the very pointy end of resident outcome standards for 4 years and sadly I found most weren't that good and few people living in them want to do so, that's if they knew where they were.

views from the cockpit's picture
views from the cockpit's picture
views from the ... commented Thursday, 9 Jul 2020 at 2:41am

Good points GS.
Seen plenty of it too.
I have a stack of my dead mums fentanyl ready for patching up and checking out when ready (hopefully before mind is mush).
Terminate with dignity and compassion.
It's just a long sleep.
For everybody.

shoredump's picture
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shoredump commented Thursday, 9 Jul 2020 at 3:06am

If lockdown = stimulus = unsustainable

If GS is right, in that this is the new normal
(a vaccine truely is unlikely)

Then upnorth is right

Ralph's picture
Ralph's picture
Ralph commented Thursday, 9 Jul 2020 at 12:35pm

I've been watching this covid 19 thing unfold with dismay. I don't watch the news unless I have to and I haven't listened to the ABC much for the last month or so but I get the gist of it from the headlines. From the beginning I reckon that this has been an example of global mass hysteria. Governments around the world trashing their economies when what they should have done is protect the oldsters and other vulnerable groups while letting the rest of the population get on with life. Now we have heaps of people losing their jobs, businesses going broke and down the track maybe people losing their houses and maybe even their lives through consequential mental health problems. And the current government sell themselves as good economic managers. That's a sick joke when you look at what they've done to the economy. Borrowing shitloads of money to try and keep the economy going after they panicked and shut it down. Now the clowns are trying to figure out where they will eventually find the money to repay the debt. Anyway I realise that I'm way out on the fringe on this one. Mainstream opinion seems to be that the government has done a good job? I reckon they've monumentally fucked up and Australians will be paying for it far into the future. (btw I haven't read more than a couple of the earlier comments on this thread).

Vic Local's picture
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Vic Local commented Thursday, 9 Jul 2020 at 12:54pm

Ralph, The simple fact is, we were always going to get an economic crisis out of Covid 19. It was just a matter of degrees.
The countries that ignored the medical advice and tried to keep their economies open are now in more shit than a Werribee duck. They've got a dual crisis and the economic one isn't going to improve unless the medical crisis decreases.
The shit for brains Orange lunatic is demanding schools go back despite a raging pandemic. Just watch what happens when school holidays finish and teachers refuse to return to the classroom because they don't feel like dying. Do you think that may have a little bit of an effect on their economy?

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

shortenism's picture
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shortenism commented Thursday, 9 Jul 2020 at 1:01pm

Yep, Ralph, its good to be an observer, helps you see it clearly. The Govt, the biggest business in Australia, aren't stupid. Its not like they have got us this far in without knowing full well the re-percussion(s). I think Blowin said it well in a way earlier comment, something along the lines of this could be a legitimate attempt to globalise.

The Govt have 00's if not 000's of financial modelers and advisors, who know the consequences of their decisions before they make decisions. Based on this I cannot help but keep coming back to the fact that there is an agenda at play here and COVID is simply the vehicle to see it through.

If you wanted to view a microcosm just have a look at Djokovic in the tennis world. He was positive, now he's negative.. He's calling a 'witch hunt' as crew try to decimate him for being.... A human?. He came out early on in this saga saying he would not support a mandatory COVID vaccination. Coincidence? Media works in wonderful ways.

shortenism's picture
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shortenism commented Thursday, 9 Jul 2020 at 1:12pm

Of course its sold as the economic crisis inst going to improve until the medical one does. Daniel Andrews said it yesterday. This disruption isn't going away without a vaccine... USA withdraw $ from WHO. Who is the majority funder now? Gates. Who happens to be calling this the decade of the vaccine? Gates. Who owns patents and controls GAVI.. Alarm bells...

If we had real leadership, they'd cut all this nonesense now. Introduce a focus on protecting the elderly and immmuno compromised and let it run its course with tht rest of us. Just like everyone else who has recovered we'd be fine and better for it.

Leaders in any country run a real risk of treason should they keep following the advice of a conflicted body like WHO. Again though, ASIO and other shadow operations know who sits behind the curtain. Wizard of Oz style.

garyg1412's picture
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garyg1412 commented Thursday, 9 Jul 2020 at 1:44pm

Hey shortenism here's an idea. Maybe we should round up all the elderly and immuno compromised and isolate them in the Melbourne towers because that's the only way this will work - you know - keep the virus out and not in. You've then got yourself a two for the price of one deal - the rest of us can go get crook and those developers will run the risk of a community backlash by trying do do some shady real estate deals over the top of a more vulnerable section of the community.

bluediamond's picture
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bluediamond commented Thursday, 9 Jul 2020 at 2:07pm

Quote, from that Fauci in the US..
"It's a false narrative to take comfort in a lower rate of death," Fauci said during a live stream press conference with Sen. Doug Jones of Alabama, a Democrat. "There's so many other things that are very dangerous and bad about this virus, don't get yourself into false complacency."
So just wondering what those dangerous and bad things are if its not death? The flu is dangerous and bad but we get over it. Shutting down whole world wide economies for 'dangerous and bad' doesn't make sense if the one thing that is feared, a high mortality rate, is actually dropping and not as high as first guessed. I might be naive on this but why is this guy not giving a more detailed description of what is dangerous and bad rather than just a sweeping generalisation?

Vic Local's picture
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Vic Local commented Thursday, 9 Jul 2020 at 2:45pm

Time for a long overdue rant to Shortenism and his fellow travellers.
You people are cunts. Absolute cunts, and I don't use that term lightly.
In March, the vast majority of Australians did the right thing: self isolated, practiced good hygiene and social distanced. The infection rates went down, almost to zero. But just as Australia saw the light at the end of the tunnel, the partisan hacks and the conspiracy nutters decided to use Covid 19 to push an agenda. The medical experts started to get ignored and conservative cunts like Dutton supported high court challenges to open borders. Other conservative cunts like Tim Smith MP in Victoria kept banging on about Dictator Dan's communist lockdown. Conspiracy nutters started pushing the idea that Covid 19 was a hoax to bring in a one world government. People started to get sloppy and now we have a second wave.
Not only has that created a serious medical crisis in Victoria, the economy is now much weaker. I've personally taken a big financial hit because of these cunts. And the absolute kick in the teeth is that these cunts must know that they are wrong and then double down on their cunt ideology of ignoring the medical experts and demanding the economy be reopened despite worsening covid figures. You cunts are a fucking menace to society. You put people in early graves, you make economic recovery more difficult, you put people in poverty.
I'm lucky. I'm a good saver but I can appreciate how fucking hard this is on young people, especially those in hospitality and tourism.
You Karen and dude Karen cunts only think of yourselves. Don't even think of coming down to the Surf Coast from Melbourne for a surf. I'm in no mode to see you cunts face to face. If you come down thinking you can surf down here during lockdown 2, the only thing you'll see of me is the back of my head as I burn you wave after wave after wave. Now fuck off cunts, and think about what you've done.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

GuySmiley's picture
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GuySmiley commented Thursday, 9 Jul 2020 at 2:58pm

IMO the biggest mistake the country/government has made with Covid19 was not closing our International boarders and enforcing strict quarantine for returning AU citizens 4+ weeks earlier than we did.

As an island AU was perfectly protected. We should have learnt and observed from countries like South Korea who learnt the SARs lesson of going very early and going very hard. We in the west and in Australia ignorantly thought it wouldn't come here and if it did we could cope without any of the nasty side effects we no have.

In January it was bleeding obvious it was coming here and the fact we stopped travel between AU and China and then waited weeks before closing our boarders to he world and especially the US (and cruise ships for FS) was an act of gross negligence from Morrison.

And where has Dutton our knob-headed minister responsible for boarder protection been all year? Hidden away like 1/2 of the talentless ministry now running the country.

loungelizard's picture
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loungelizard commented Thursday, 9 Jul 2020 at 3:07pm

surprised you havent blamed john howard guysmiley.. everything really was ok except for the cockhead dan andrews and his union mates botching it up . if thats not obvious to you it is to the rest of the country

indo-dreaming's picture
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indo-dreaming commented Thursday, 9 Jul 2020 at 3:11pm

To be fair Guy we have done amazingly well one of the best in the world, its easy to look at things in hindsight in the early days we didn't know what we know now and we were also getting mixed message from the WHO

Its only this second wave in Victoria that has been an issue, which doesn't have anything to do with Scomo has more to do with your mate Dan.

Edit: Ha ha lounge lizard beat me to it :D

blowfly's picture
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blowfly commented Thursday, 9 Jul 2020 at 3:12pm

"So just wondering what those dangerous and bad things are if its not death? The flu is dangerous and bad but we get over it."

bluediamond, this ain't the 'flu. As well as damaging the lungs it causes strokes and attacks blood vessels as well as the heart and the brain, leaving many people with long recovery times and permanently damaged health. And maybe take a look at the actual state of those economies. None are totally shut down. Some sectors have been shut down, others most are continuing pretty much as normal.

blowfly's picture
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blowfly commented Thursday, 9 Jul 2020 at 3:15pm

"everything really was ok except for the cockhead dan andrews and his union mates botching it up . if thats not obvious to you it is to the rest of the country"

Hmmm, no loungelizard not at all obvious, in fact the evidence is very much the other way. The vast majority of people, even of those badly impacted by lockdowns, support policies that restrict the spread of the virus.

Stok's picture
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Stok commented Thursday, 9 Jul 2020 at 3:16pm

Classic VL!

But you almost sound like a conspiracy theorist yourself! Unfortunately, it's not as straightforward as you say. I fear that the effects the doubters and conspiracy nutjobs had here is not the crux of the issue. It's more likely that we as Australia were incredibly lucky with the first wave, and due to a monumental screw up on quarantining the returned travellers, we now have community transmission in Melbourne. This may be the time which proves that we're no different to the rest of the world, and the other states have been nothing but incredibly lucky (or, they're just less populated). Luck is being passed off for good policy and management.

Also, make sure you treat your other friendly local mates who will be working/travelling to the city throughout this lockdown the same - as I can assure you, there'll be way more of these crew than city bound surfers down there. Not even counting Geelong...

blowfly's picture
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blowfly commented Thursday, 9 Jul 2020 at 3:25pm

LFAD-2

maddogmorley's picture
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maddogmorley commented Thursday, 9 Jul 2020 at 3:41pm

Hmmmm...not sure this Dan Andrews fault loungelizard...

https://www.9news.com.au/national/coronavirus-victoria-melburnians-race-...

bluediamond's picture
bluediamond's picture
bluediamond commented Thursday, 9 Jul 2020 at 3:47pm

Cheers blowfly. That makes sense.

loungelizard's picture
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loungelizard commented Thursday, 9 Jul 2020 at 3:49pm

cedar meats outbreak mismanaged, quarantine overseen by security guards to appease union mates spurning federal assistance botched , thats why you are fucked there, not people heading to their holiday homes. i would say "are you really that stupid" but having followed these threads for years i know the answer

blowfly's picture
blowfly's picture
blowfly commented Thursday, 9 Jul 2020 at 3:53pm

Wroing again Mr Lizard.
“Cedar Meats management ignored reports of workers who believed they may have had coronavirus in mid-April as "rumour and innuendo" weeks before health officials shut down the abattoir.
Between April 13 and 17, Cedar Meats and Labour Solutions, the labour-hire firm that provides more than half of the Cedar Meats workforce, had daily phone calls about a small group of workers, some of whom were off on sick days, who told management they believed they had COVID-19 or believed their co-workers were infected.
A staff member who later tested positive worked in the factory until April 17, ten days before the Victorian Health Department first contacted Cedar Meats about a positive case."
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/cedar-meats-dismissed-report...

indo-dreaming's picture
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indo-dreaming commented Thursday, 9 Jul 2020 at 3:54pm

@loungelizard

100% BTW Do you live in SA?

shortenism's picture
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shortenism commented Thursday, 9 Jul 2020 at 3:55pm

Garyg, could work but i'd say Vic, Indo, yourself and plenty more fear ridden, do gooding citizen's would probably push in on the nanna's, possibly even undercover to claim your own patch of safe territory up on level 8. Ppl when in fear will go to any length to escape this highly contagious and dangerous virus (that you have to go door knocking to find).

indo-dreaming's picture
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indo-dreaming commented Thursday, 9 Jul 2020 at 4:02pm

ha ha that's the closest I've ever got to being labeled a "do gooder"

loungelizard's picture
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loungelizard commented Thursday, 9 Jul 2020 at 4:07pm

yep, sa indo, been a good autumn/winter here.
covid hardly an ideological battle, state governments varying degrees of competence, my understanding is when the first cedar meats positive came through he denied having worked there for preceding month and noone bothered to check (privacy!) wether that was incompetence (most likely) or conspiracy (they donated money to labor), who knows because your government wont answer questions (theres an inquiry going on!) nsw fucked the ruby princess, now victoria have fucked up as well. no ideology here, just idiots

shortenism's picture
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shortenism commented Thursday, 9 Jul 2020 at 4:08pm

lizzard, yep the food supply chain is within sight of this agenda too. Interesting how many meat processing plants get the numbers... Manufactured / fake processed foods have been becoming more mainstream. I guess if I wanted to gain complete control of human population I would want to keep us in a continual state of fear, sensor the information put out, remove cash, control the food supply, water supply, vaccination programs and then bombard us with EMF. But that's what I would do... Hang on......?

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Thursday, 9 Jul 2020 at 4:19pm

"Luck is being passed off for good policy and management."
Ain't that the truth Stok.
During this pandemic every government has made mistakes. Some big, some small, some with consequences, some without. Multiple state governments have hired private security guards for quarantine hotels. This hasn't resulted in spikes except in Melbourne where the guards shared a lighter, and allegedly porked a guest or two.
Some states have got away with really stupid things like allowing a 1000 person music festival, and allowing a plane load of people from Melbourne to head out into the streets without testing. That's just pure luck.
And then we have the completely useless covid safe app!!!
The crazy thing is, people up in NSW think this is just a Victorian problem. I ducked up there for work the other week and was absolutely shocked at the behaviour of people up there. Just a crazy lack of social distancing. It's like people from NSW genuinely believe they are immune to the virus and can carry on as normal. Nobody could be shocked if there is a massive spike in cases up there. And don't fall for the blame Dan routine. It's the partiers and cafe/pub goers who are putting that state's economy and health system at risk.
Oh and blowin, before you get on your high horse, I worked alone, drove up there, and was very strict with social distancing and hygiene.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

shoredump's picture
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shoredump commented Thursday, 9 Jul 2020 at 4:23pm

I’m just glad that in the middle of modern civilisations current disintegration, that it’s gotten all cold and wet, and global warming went away. That was lucky

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Thursday, 9 Jul 2020 at 4:26pm

And then you see this! Face palm..

Spuddups's picture
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Spuddups commented Thursday, 9 Jul 2020 at 4:28pm

It’s like when someone comes to you complaining of a sore foot so you punch them in the nose. They stop complaining about their foot after that.

Vic Local's picture
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Vic Local commented Thursday, 9 Jul 2020 at 4:28pm

Where's that Craig?

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Thursday, 9 Jul 2020 at 4:29pm

Double Bay last night, the Golden Sheaf.

shortenism's picture
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shortenism commented Thursday, 9 Jul 2020 at 4:34pm

Good one em, being human, they will be fine and I hope you got arrested Craig for creeping around on your camera.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Thursday, 9 Jul 2020 at 4:37pm

Say what shortenism? Creeping around?

Firsly anyone can take an image in a public place and second it's NOT my photo, it's on the news sites and third fuck off with your poorly guided assumptions and conspiracy crap.

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Thursday, 9 Jul 2020 at 4:38pm

Ha Ha, know the place well. It must have paid off the cops in the 80s because it was one of Sydney's most under-aged pubs. A photocopy of my birth certificate with a changed date was good enough for the bouncers. I looked 14 at best!!
That photo must crush the spirits of medical professionals.
When the second wave happens in Sydney half the muppets in that photo will be blaming someone else rather than admitting their own behaviour was a bit silly.
PS Nice reply to that muppet shortenism.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

shortenism's picture
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shortenism commented Thursday, 9 Jul 2020 at 4:42pm

Yep thats what I wrote creepy

Vic Local's picture
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Vic Local commented Thursday, 9 Jul 2020 at 4:47pm

Congrats blowin, you're no longer the biggest idiot on this site. Shortenism's stupefying commentary, and the high probability he's a pure mouth-breather, means he takes the title from you.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

shortenism's picture
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shortenism commented Thursday, 9 Jul 2020 at 4:55pm

hahaha, thanks Vic but I couldn't give a flying turd for popularity contests, especially here... There's a topic and we're all engaged on it. How good is that. Not a one size fits all festival like yourself and Craig might prefer. But hey you guys are getting some anger out, clearly so thats a positive you can take away.

GuySmiley's picture
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GuySmiley commented Thursday, 9 Jul 2020 at 4:56pm

FFS.

I thought people were literate here.

I said the biggest mistake not the only one. There have been plenty of mistakes with Covid19 and maybe the quarantine hotels in Vic is one of them. As was the cruise ships.

Think about it, if we had closed our boarders 4+ weeks earlier with strict quarantine no Covid19 and domestic economy working uninterrupted.

Craig's picture
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Craig commented Thursday, 9 Jul 2020 at 5:07pm

Just noticed your question re why the spreadsheet and site haven't been updated shortenism.

It's because as infection rates dropped and the ICU capacity was bolstered, it became redundant. The breaking point was put out over a year away. Which was the aim of the whole thing.

Since then I've been tracking Victoria's rates of infection and it's not too bad at the moment, around 1.14 averaging the last week (when it first hit Aus we were escalating at 1.25, that's a doubling in cases every 4 days). This also has to be taken into context with the mass testing, so likely picking up a lot more cases compared to the first time around.

The one worry is the community transmission part, hence the lockdown.

Infection rates..

fitzroy-21's picture
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fitzroy-21 commented Thursday, 9 Jul 2020 at 5:08pm

VL - "Where's that Craig?"
Craig - "Double Bay last night, the Golden Sheaf."
VL - "Ha Ha, know the place well."
Gold...

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Thursday, 9 Jul 2020 at 5:12pm

Haha Fitz.

Also the irony of shortenism wanting me arrested for taking a photo, but he's anti-vaccine and anti-police state. Say what??

Vic Local's picture
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Vic Local commented Thursday, 9 Jul 2020 at 5:13pm

A radical mate of mine said that Australia should have a complete lockdown of borders in January. He also said it wouldn't happen because the powers that be did not have the stomach for the economic pain that would cause.
It's staggering that these same forces that didn't lock down the borders early continue to push the same failed message.
Should have listened to the radical in January. We'd be at the G with 100,000 other fans watching Richmond thrash the Pies without a care in the world.*
*Pies fans excluded.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"