COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster

Craig's picture
Craig started the topic in Wednesday, 18 Mar 2020 at 7:44pm

I've created a spreadsheet forecast which I'll update as we go..

There's also a website with live running data.. https://sites.google.com/view/stayhomeaustralia

indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming commented Sunday, 19 Jul 2020 at 12:56pm

Lets just try to agree to disagree Vic on that one

In regard to your comment above you could be right but god i hope you are not, let's hope Australia at least gets vaccines for those that travel overseas.

Please Stunet give me an ignore button for Talking Turkey, Shatners Basoon, Dale Cooper, Factotum, Pupkin, and any new fake profile he decides to create.

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Sunday, 19 Jul 2020 at 1:57pm

Indo. I promise I won't call you out for anti-Dan Andrews comments when you can back up your argument with evidence. Holding politicians to account is important.
Here are the official figures. Victoria has had 5696 confirmed cases. 6 (roughly .1%) went to the BLM rally and there is no evidence they caught it at the rally or spread it.
My big concern with the "get dan/ it's the BLM's fault" campaign is that it let's others off the hook for genuinely shitty actions by blaming others. Scumo has cancelled parliament because it's apparently unsafe. He was at the footy the other day and schools are fine, but parliament can't sit, even remotely. Have a think about that for a while. People from all political persuasions should be horrified at this attack on our democracy, but half the country is on the get dan / forgive scumo program. Albo supporting the cancelled parliament is fucking pathetic.
NSW should be seriously considering or entering a lockdown now. Gladys's recent statement is incredibly weak and nobody could be shocked when NSW gets a second wave. Rather than holding their own to account, conservatives will be blaming Dan. Everyone in power has made mistakes. We need people to put up their hands, own them and fix them. That's what I'm seeing with Andrews. He didn't point the finger at NSW and Border Force over the Ruby Princess fiasco. He just got on with the doing what was necessary.
I simply don't see the Liberal Party doing the same. They've made some shockers and have done virtually nothing to fix them or hold people to account. Rather than admitting their border control has been woeful, they just carry on. The covid safe app is a joke and yet they still pretend it's useful. And they still support Clive Palmer's (who is facing 5 years in prison for fraud) High Court Challenge to open up all state borders. That's fucking madness.
These bums need to own and fix their fuckups rather than point the finger at other people's mistakes. Too much is at stake.
BTW indo. The vaccine distribution will be done to save as many lives as possible, not facilitate overseas travel for privileged Australians. It would be very hard to create an ethical argument saying it should be the other way around.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

indo-dreaming's picture
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indo-dreaming commented Sunday, 19 Jul 2020 at 4:00pm

Bitting my lip :D

Please Stunet give me an ignore button for Talking Turkey, Shatners Basoon, Dale Cooper, Factotum, Pupkin, and any new fake profile he decides to create.

geek's picture
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geek commented Sunday, 19 Jul 2020 at 4:08pm

Politically I can’t really see any fallout for Dan. No doubt hotel situation was a big fuckup but he’s handled things pretty well outside of that. Like you said VL there’s been fuckups all over the country

If the Vic libs were an even a slightly competent alternative he could have been in trouble but O’Brien, Guy, Timmy, Newbury etc would have to the biggest bunch of duds ever assembled for major state political party.

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Sunday, 19 Jul 2020 at 5:51pm

True geek. The Victorian LNP is unelectable rabble. Their candidates come in two main forms. Religious nutters and mediocre private school chaps who are just proxies for developers and other swindlers. People like Newbury and Smith are incapable of original thought and can be guaranteed to do the bidding of their masters.
The private sector wouldn't hire these clowns in a fit. They get pre-selection for the Liberal Party because they are so talentless.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

GuySmiley's picture
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GuySmiley commented Sunday, 19 Jul 2020 at 5:54pm
indo-dreaming's picture
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indo-dreaming commented Sunday, 19 Jul 2020 at 6:39pm

Yeah imagine how much it would suck to not have a second wave of Covid-19, no branch staking scams and not getting in bed with China (belt & road)

Please Stunet give me an ignore button for Talking Turkey, Shatners Basoon, Dale Cooper, Factotum, Pupkin, and any new fake profile he decides to create.

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Sunday, 19 Jul 2020 at 8:27pm

Indo, you really haven't been paying attention have you. No second wave under the liberals in Victoria? Oh please, they've just spent 4 months arguing the Victorian lockdown laws are too harsh. What exactly do you think would happen to infection rates if the LNP got their way and reduced social distancing rules?
As for no branch stacking in the Libs, mate, I spat my tea across the room reading that. It's absolutely rampant. The Vic Libs are being over run by mad religious types.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-06-30/victoria-liberals-religious-right...
It's actually hilarious you think branch stacking doesn't occur in the LNP.
And as for the belt and road, I'm tipping you haven't read the MOU between the Victoria and Chinese governments, and have zero understanding of any arrangement. You just think scaring people with a mention of this arrangement will score you some political points.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

geek's picture
geek's picture
geek commented Sunday, 19 Jul 2020 at 8:27pm

And don’t forgot Gladys Liu Indo!

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Sunday, 19 Jul 2020 at 8:31pm

Gladys got her pre-selection largely due to her fundraising skills with Chinese people. And all those $$$ came with no strings attached eh Indo-Dreaming?

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

truebluebasher's picture
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truebluebasher commented Monday, 20 Jul 2020 at 1:36am

Indo, did come good on that beer...tbb will drink to that...

Vic Local is right in thinking US gets first sip!
UK / Euro / OZ all say they'll surrender their vaccine to Trump.

56% of US say to shove yer fuckin' vaccine...
32% of OZ say to stick yer Covid -19 Jab up yer own arse.

Govt's are well short of Herd Immunity...Vaccine is useless before it is found!
Same 15% in both US & OZ would line up for a Flu Jab but never Covid!
Target group would change if leaders promised to stand down! Fair Swap!

Covid is not good in your body...not one tiny bit!...
Patients honestly feel they will never recover well enough to be of use!
We're talking young female Adults even...
Doctors have no answer...Patients are exhausted after a 1 minute phone call!

WHO Vaccine...
15 points) Vaccine implementation either 2x .5ml doses or 1mL for immunity )
25 points) Vaccine must be ramp distributed by Multi National Company.
25 points) Efficacy is basically the Patent.
25 points) Safety? Disposable Vaccine Party Punch cups & stuff!
10 points) Stability - 50% is minimum as (30% are standard placebos) Shock!

file:///C:/Users/Owner/Downloads/criteria-17-may%20(1).pdf

This is why Oz were quick to sacrifice A List Housos for US DNA bank deposits.
Sure they all fly Oz flag but equally they know they must sell rights to US.

Q&A Introduces Professor Jodie from Doherty Institute.
https://www.doherty.edu.au/people/professor-jodie-mcvernon

See: 100,000's of Mask Free Doherty Corona Tests
https://www.doherty.edu.au/news-events/news/100000-covid-19-tests

blowfly's picture
blowfly's picture
blowfly commented Monday, 20 Jul 2020 at 11:57am

One of the issues that needs more attention is the spread in aged care facilities. In Victoria I think it is now around 40 that have reported cases. The reasons for this go back deep into the neolib agenda of minimum regulation, maximum casual work and minimum wages. The result is poorly trained workers who often work extremely long hours in several different institutions. The decline in standards has been going on for a long time with numerous high profile incidents of neglect and abuse before the pandemic started.
The situation now is that asymptomatic workers are carrying the infection from one institution to another. They have no motivation to get tested since this would put them out of work with no income. This is aggravated by lack PPE, lack of nurses on site, lack of specific training for dealing with the pandemic and inadequate cleaning services, usually provided by workers who are even worse off than the aged care workers. But keep banging on about the BLM protest and which bunch of political parasites are the least competent.

Vic Local's picture
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Vic Local commented Monday, 20 Jul 2020 at 12:12pm

You've hit the nail on the head their blowfly.
The problem is, the conservative scumbags have always seen this virus as a political opportunity rather than a medical crisis that needs to be solved. That's why they keep banging on endlessly about BLM rather than solving the problem of people living pay check to pay check with zero safety net.
That "red tape" cutting, anti union, and anti-training agenda doesn't work well in a crisis and never has.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

indo-dreaming's picture
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indo-dreaming commented Monday, 20 Jul 2020 at 12:47pm

This is how stupid people are, no this is not an old story its from today. (Published 2:47, Monday 20 July 2020 BST)

Notice what the police commissioner has said, am i jumping to conclusions on what he is implying?

Im betting we don't know the whole story.

"Thousands Expected To Attend Black Lives Matter Protest In Sydney Next Week

New South Wales Police are planning on taking organisers of a Black Lives Matter protest to the Supreme Court to stop it from going ahead.

Authorities have learned as many as four thousand people are planning on attending the march in Sydney next week.

Naturally, with the second wave of coronavirus infections causing parts of Victoria to lock down and more cases in NSW, police are worried a massive rally could be detrimental.

NSW Police Commissioner Mick Fuller has issued a warning to people thinking of attending the march, saying they are putting their health at risk.

Relying on some pretty good intelligence from Victoria, we know how dangerous these protests can be, in terms of health," he said to 2GB Radio.

"At the moment, you just can't take chances.

Continued
https://www.ladbible.com/news/latest-thousands-expected-to-attend-black-...

Please Stunet give me an ignore button for Talking Turkey, Shatners Basoon, Dale Cooper, Factotum, Pupkin, and any new fake profile he decides to create.

GuySmiley's picture
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GuySmiley commented Monday, 20 Jul 2020 at 12:54pm

@blowfly,

What you say is true in a general sense but the problems in age care are way deeper and broader. Western family culture of not caring for the frail elderly in the family home mixed with the strident conservative political and religious position imposing aggressive medical care standards beyond all quality of life thresholds in no small part get us to where we are today.

All aged care facilities are required to meet commonwealth (resident) outcome standards. The problems you describe predate neoliberalism here in Australia. As someone who managed 20 outcome standards monitoring teams I can tell you horrific stories of how the elderly were treated. Howard created the Accreditation Agency that all facilities answer to in meeting or not meeting the resident outcome standards. This was a positive thing and outcome standards have improved and the rouge operators some of whom were convicted criminals have all left the industry.

You are correct about the staffing situation but working in aged care isn't glamorous, far from it, there are much better places to work if you are a trained nurse with ambition. I'll add few working in aged care ever want to end up living in one.

We all hope the frail elderly have a good life in aged care but the reality is frequently different not because of poor staffing but because all quality of life has long gone and its only modern medical practice and its medicine that's keeping these poor souls alive. Perhaps dying quickly without aggressive medical care is a better way to go.

loungelizard's picture
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loungelizard commented Monday, 20 Jul 2020 at 1:02pm

now issues in age care is John howards fault guy smiley! did he fuck your mother? its an unhealthy obsession, let it go! you may be less of a miserable old bastard if you do!

garyg1412's picture
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garyg1412 commented Monday, 20 Jul 2020 at 1:06pm

Can't agree more with you on that one Blowfly. Aged care funding is a joke and is getting worse. After Newmarch House you would have thought the government and industry would have had all their ducks in a row but now we have a situation that is going to make the Ruby Princess look like - well like a cruise ship holiday.
I worked in the property side of this industry some time back but still had insight into how things operated and the statistic that blew my mind was that they were feeding the oldies 3 meals a day on a budget of $4.85. And this was a top notch facility. Now translate that budgetary allowance into infection control procedures and personnel and we end up with the shitshow we are now in with these poor elderly residents.

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet commented Monday, 20 Jul 2020 at 1:06pm

I read it as a compliment to him?

"Howard created the Accreditation Agency that all facilities answer to in meeting or not meeting the resident outcome standards. This was a positive thing and outcome standards have improved..."

zenagain's picture
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zenagain commented Monday, 20 Jul 2020 at 1:07pm

Above comment in pretty poor taste LoungeLizard. Mate, there's other ways to disagree I'm sure you would agree.

1173

GuySmiley's picture
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GuySmiley commented Monday, 20 Jul 2020 at 1:07pm

No, LL, you totally misread what I have said. I think Howard did good creating the Accreditation Agency, while the 2 year implementation period was rushed its been a big positive. Poor care standards in aged care predate his governments. Problems exist today because of funding levels but there are also similarities with the child care sector and the "for profit" sector's involvement. Commonwealth funding increases but does that mean increased staffing or increased profits?

blowfly's picture
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blowfly commented Monday, 20 Jul 2020 at 1:26pm

Guy a few points. It is pretty hard to care for your aged parents when you live in an economy in which families cannot manage unless both partners are working. In terms of care, my mother spent the last decade of her life in aged care and had a better life than she had previously had. Her health was good until the last couple of months and she was in a group of people with whom she had much in common. The fact that she had four children and various grand-children living nearby helped.

While she was there the doctor provided by the home was fired for precisely the reasons you identify, that is she did not aggressively medicate the terminally ill to extend their lives. The sad thing is that the complaints came from people who claimed that their relative had died prematurely from lack of treatment.......when no treatment was going to extend their life by more than a few days. Most of the residents were appalled and the company would have preferred to keep the doctor but did not want to risk the complaints becoming public.
Finally, my mother owned her own home and went into care before the 2008 financial crisis so she got a good deal which included refunding her entire deposit. These deals were based on the returns on investment the companies were receiving at the time. Post 2008, these returns fell sharply under-mining their financial plans. This caused a serious decline in the quality of sevices they delivered. How much of that was absolutely necessary and how much was about preserving profits and maintaining the exorbitant salaries of their excessively large management teams, is hard to say.

GuySmiley's picture
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GuySmiley commented Monday, 20 Jul 2020 at 2:22pm

Blowfly thanks for recalling the good news story of your mother, in my experience the best age care was provided by small bush nursing hospitals where the lines of accountability were very clear to all. We each come to this topic with a genuine heartfelt position. Personality I want the good manners to pop off earlier than later. Cheers

truebluebasher's picture
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truebluebasher commented Monday, 20 Jul 2020 at 10:41pm

18th May - Oz Tables WHA Wuhan Expedition + US pull out of UN.
Big Pharm now have major controlling stake in WHO...Nation States surrender!

Surely this changes nothing, as we're all fighting the good fight.

11 July 2020 WHO Advance Team touch down in China on Scomo's Virus Trek
WHO: "There are NO plans to visit Wuhan, the source of the outbreak!" (Say Wot!)
https://www.theweek.in/wire-updates/international/2020/07/17/fgn57-virus...

13 July 2020 - WHA - NZ 'PM Helen Clark - Co chair of...
" The Independent Panel for Pandemic Preparedness and Response." ( WTF )
Looks beyond WHO...to support International Financial Institutions! ( Say Wot! )
https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/healthreport/coronavirus-/...

Code: [ The decimation of Nation State's feelgood Medicare schemes ]
'We'll be strictly sticking to Trump & Scomo's brief...Thank You!'... Next?

"What about Scomo's Wet'n'Wild market expedition?"
'Pretty sure I just answered yer dumb question!'

truebluebasher's picture
truebluebasher's picture
truebluebasher commented Monday, 20 Jul 2020 at 11:18pm

State of Origin BLM up against Qldurrz Covid Council Polls...No contest!

Qldurrz Council Election booth brews with Monday's tuckshop school germs.

No good doin' it by half...go over the top to stun the nation....Qld just did wot!

views from the cockpit's picture
views from the cockpit's picture
views from the ... commented Tuesday, 21 Jul 2020 at 4:12am

I reckon with Covid Im not the only one to reconsider an old habit?
Yesterday did just that.
So the wife and I headed to the local beach to scope a likely punter as we are in unfamiliar territory.
Sure enough sitting alone up on a rock at the end of the beach was a dude -mid-late twenties, wearing a nepalese hat and sunglasses and rolling his own cigarettes in a certain manner.
I sent the wife over with a small note on the pretence of getting a light for her cigarette as way of introduction.
I could tell from a distance via his smile and gesticulating hand movements that he was our man.

Enjoyed a beautiful sunset up on the cliffs above the waves with a few beers and buds.
Happy daze :-)

zenagain's picture
zenagain's picture
zenagain commented Tuesday, 21 Jul 2020 at 8:28am

VFTC, I love these kinds of stories.

1173

shoredump's picture
shoredump's picture
shoredump commented Tuesday, 21 Jul 2020 at 9:14am

There’s a vaccine

Pops's picture
Pops's picture
Pops commented Tuesday, 21 Jul 2020 at 9:51am

Promising, but far too early to start celebrating.
They've shown that the vaccine is safe in healthy adults (which in itself is a big deal - previous coronavirus vaccines attempts e.g. some developed for SARS-CoV-1 have tended to induce such a strong immune response (in animal trials) that the host was killed), but there's several more stages of trials needed to show that it is effective, and that it is safe for people with "underlying conditions".

He who hesitates is lost

factotum's picture
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factotum commented Tuesday, 21 Jul 2020 at 12:30pm

"9News can reveal government spending on the app has cost millions more than previously thought and one of the companies involved in working on it has links to the Liberal Party.

DELV's CEO Masseh Haidary is the husband of Liberal Party Canberra candidate Mina Zaki and in a previous role his company hosted MP Angus Taylor in the past at business events.

An additional $64 million has been spent on advertising, but the government has not confirmed how much of the promotional material landed on the app itself.
"What we thought was a $2 million dud now looks like it's a $70 million dud," Labor's Bill Shorten said today."

https://www.9news.com.au/national/coronavirus-covidsafe-app-could-have-c...

The biggest surprise is that Nine is reporting this in such a manner. The last remnants of Fairfax?

yorkessurfer's picture
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yorkessurfer commented Tuesday, 21 Jul 2020 at 12:51pm

I saw that reported on 9 news last night facto. Buried about 20 minutes into the 1hr programme, blink and you miss it, reported impassively. But there for future reference when accusations of bias get rolled out that our main stream media organisations lean to the right. I still remember the hysterical reporting during the last Labor government.
Every whiff of a Labor fart was reported by the MSM as Rudd or Gillard shitting the bed.(apologies to Jonny Depp and Amber Heard). https://pagesix.com/2020/07/14/the-poop-that-ruined-johnny-depp-and-ambe...

truebluebasher's picture
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truebluebasher commented Tuesday, 21 Jul 2020 at 1:51pm

Good snooping factotum > tbb's APP timeline was looking downright glib.
Kinda hoping for a more on trend Chaotic revamp...that'll do nicely.
Locked in & back on track...
https://www.swellnet.com/forums/wax/491794?page=12#comment-672393

Here's yer reward....factotum

Footy Boofs pimp Tik Tok Teenies $600 for Covid safe'n'secure {Meal Tickets}
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6834993/lobby-group-let-us-play-p...

LUP securing our app
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0S_TrGxvb4w&feature=emb_logo

TAB securing our app
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jWXqx_jJPYE&feature=emb_logo

Crew are right that recent 9 are more straight up than micro managed ABC
That latest APP blow must have reopened the LUP scam....
Reckon they got ABC to cut that Hack Tik Tok link... try it yourself & see...gone!

shoredump's picture
shoredump's picture
shoredump commented Wednesday, 22 Jul 2020 at 10:01am

The mortality rate of CV is 0.0185%

The dismantling of Covid-19 induced panic continues..
Thank God for science?

Please read on:

“Nearly one in four residents in India's capital, Delhi, has been exposed to coronavirus infection, antibody tests on a random sample of people suggest.

The government survey said 23.48% of the 21,387 people whose blood samples were tested had Covid-19 antibodies.

It suggests that infections in the city are much more widespread than the number of confirmed cases indicates.

Delhi has so far recorded 123,747 cases, equivalent to less than 1% of its population of 19.8 million.

At 23.44%, the number of infections would be 4.65 million in a city that size. A government press release says the difference shows that "a large number of infected persons remain asymptomatic".

It even says the figure of 23.48% may be too low because Delhi has several pockets of dense population. But it adds that "a significant proportion of the population is still vulnerable" and all safety measures must be strictly followed.“

https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-asia-india-53...


post picture in facebook comment

With 3663 deaths in Delhi, that puts the mortality rate at 0.0185%

blowfly's picture
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blowfly commented Wednesday, 22 Jul 2020 at 10:32am

"The mortality rate of CV is 0.0185%"
No, the death rate is not determined from the total population. It is determined from the number of infections. On your figures that would be near enough to 3%. The variation in death rates from country to country can have a many causes. As a cautionary number though in the US it is 5.9%.
Your figure is not only wrong it is grossly misleading. There are a lot of people suffering economically at the moment, and you may be one of them, but it is still irresponsible to publish what can really only be described as a lie.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Wednesday, 22 Jul 2020 at 10:41am

Yeah got your maths wrong there sorry Shoredump.

Stok's picture
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Stok commented Wednesday, 22 Jul 2020 at 10:43am

hmmm I'd say it's equally misleading to say the death rate is 5.9%.

The sheer number of asymptomatic, or very mild symptoms, will never really be known - hence the true death rate will never really be known. Comparing positive test results, or even cases recovered vs cases ending in death is confusing to the general public. It also doesn't cover the fact that as this is a new disease, any death where the cause is not directly know is attributed to Covid, if that person has a positive test.

It's also bleedingly obvious that the more developed countries are not being 'harder hit' by Covid, they're just reporting it in a more pragmatic and cautionary way. Caution is good - particularly with a new disease, but the general public can misinterpret caution with fear/panic.

Swine flu pandemic of 2009 was estimated to have infected up to a quarter of the worlds population before it faded out. Covid is looking likely to be similar.

p.s. death rate is one thing, but being sick for more than a couple of weeks, or needing an ICU bed is another. There's a reasonably higher percentage for this.

shoredump's picture
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shoredump commented Wednesday, 22 Jul 2020 at 12:00pm

I don’t lie BB.

I do make mistakes though, as everyone does, and I’ve made a maths error.

4.65 million infected residents of Delhi
(Unless you don’t trust the experts)
3663 deaths

That’s a mortality rate of 0.07%

:)

This new evidence can also be used to blow apart those figures in the US, which was the whole point of my post.
The asymptomatic murky area is starting to clear up.

It’s ok, people make mistakes...

This is new science coming from the Indian government, who I’m guessing are up there with world leaders.

It’s all good, we erred on the side of caution, I get it.
Thank God the building science is showing it to be far less dangerous than first thought.

I still say we should have fixed the global warming issue, or even Africa with all this total world effort, but you know how it played out, the old white guy got the nod

My original point still stands as strong as ever

Ape Anonymous's picture
Ape Anonymous's picture
Ape Anonymous commented Wednesday, 22 Jul 2020 at 11:48am

Funniest shit ever:
SMH - "Infections could be up to 13 times higher than reported in the US"
That means the official death rate could be somewhere between 0.09% and 0.2% of all infections... Ooooooo... the boogieman gotcha!

blowfly's picture
blowfly's picture
blowfly commented Wednesday, 22 Jul 2020 at 12:24pm

"4.65 million infected residents of Delhi
(Unless you don’t trust the experts)"

You haver misrepresented the data.
"The government survey said 23.48% of the 21,387 people whose blood samples were tested had Covid-19 antibodies.
It suggests that infections in the city are much more widespread than the number of confirmed cases indicates."

The assumption you are making is that the cohort that was tested was a representative sample of the entire population of the city. Given the size of the sample and the population of the city this is extremely unlikely. Then there is the other side of the equation that in developing countries many deaths are not investigated so the actual number of COVID deaths could be much higher. Another confounding issue that influences death rates is the difference in demographics between India and Australia. The evidence is clear that the older the population distribution, the higher the death rate. Your approach is misleading and likely to encourage peoplke to minimise their risk........which as this discussion shows cannot be precisely quantified but is high enough to justify the current procedures/
Demo-2

shoredump's picture
shoredump's picture
shoredump commented Wednesday, 22 Jul 2020 at 1:55pm

What a load of bs BB. My sharing of expert scientific data shared by the Indian government is likely to encourage people to minimise their risk. Nice try but that won’t wash with me because it’s not based on any reality. Perhaps I could post a photo of a 9 yo girl with horrific road injuries, and link it to your behaviour of driving 100kmh on the Princes hwy, because you don’t push for an Australia wide 40km maximum speed on all roads. It’s just as ridiculous. You don’t want death, I don’t want death, but it is a small consequence of modern life.
Regarding the results coming out of India, I could believe you about the sample not being accurate, but I prefer to listen to the experts and their suggestion that this is also being conservative, due to population densities. But whatever, you’re entitled to suggest you know better.

My reaction and understanding of the virus will always change and remain true to what the science is telling us.
If the science says the death rate is 5.9% I’ll react accordingly, same as if the science suggests that the rate of death in Delhi is 0.07%, which it does.

The argument of old and sick people keep dying is rubbish to me. Of course they fucking are!

Explain to me why you don’t want to do anything about 3000 local road deaths, what about all the smoking deaths, the half a million annually in the US. Why do nothing there?
If you really believe that US rate of 5.9% and won’t entertain an untested asymptomatic population then good luck to you hahaha

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 commented Wednesday, 22 Jul 2020 at 1:54pm

I'm kind of with you on the argument Shoredump, just not sure you can make a straight extrapolation of the sample out to a city or country wide level.

shoredump's picture
shoredump's picture
shoredump commented Wednesday, 22 Jul 2020 at 2:02pm

Freeride, sure, shave 20% off what I’m saying, keep 80% and you’ve got your real figure.

Point still stands.

The new virus science is building and proving it to be far less deadly than first thought

truebluebasher's picture
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truebluebasher commented Wednesday, 22 Jul 2020 at 2:05pm

Here's the News Article the crew are referring to...
https://www.theage.com.au/world/north-america/covid-19-cases-could-be-up...

CDC - NYC Hot Spot (1/4 exposed to virus) 60% is Herd immunity
Florida- Positive Tests have soared monthly from 2.3% > 10% > 19%

PAHO- Central America (3/10 at increased risk) developing complications >Covid.

NCDC- New Delhi (1/5 had been infected by the virus)
CMC - Cases would be higher in slums & have increased since.

Crew can make of that what they will....
It seems to read '25% are at high risk' over several continental "hot spots".

Recall many are fearful of losing jobs, lives & loved ones the minute they report!
News in March: NYC Carriers were fearful to show symptoms to the Boss.

Also less said : Past cases relapse & readmit from March/April/May infections.
Deaths & No vaccine is a worry but no recovery may be spiking the cases higher.

Stok's picture
Stok's picture
Stok commented Wednesday, 22 Jul 2020 at 2:14pm

It's kind of not new science Shoredump. Most reputable sources we're stating death rates in the order of 1-3% very early on.

It's just consistently we were being reported deaths relating to confirmed cases from pretty much all media sources.

It's no conspiracy, it's just fear and bad news is the most exciting news, so it's the more we hear/see.

garyg1412's picture
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garyg1412 commented Wednesday, 22 Jul 2020 at 2:37pm

Saw this the other day regarding the discussion about death rates. Admittedly was off Facebook but even if it's half correct gives you some eye watering numbers for something that is no worse than the flu.

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shoredump's picture
shoredump's picture
shoredump commented Wednesday, 22 Jul 2020 at 3:20pm

Stok, in Delhi it’s well below 1-3%
It’s 0.07%
@gary, the numbers are even worse for smoking...
No one wants death, but throwing the young and healthy under the bus isn’t the best way to handle it.

Anyone at risk should have gone into hard self isolation, the money could have easily been spent on those wishing to do so. The old should have taken that one on the chin

The mortality rate for heart attack is 12%

Stok's picture
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Stok commented Wednesday, 22 Jul 2020 at 3:04pm

Agreed Shoredump. It's also clear that the virus spreads indoors....mostly to family members within a household.

garyg1412 probably not entirely legit, but an important point all the same. Too much focus on death, not enough clear, balanced reporting on severity of illness, true recovery times (i.e. how many young, healthy people bed ridden in pain for weeks on end?) and long term effects for those without pre-existing conditions.

blowfly's picture
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blowfly commented Wednesday, 22 Jul 2020 at 3:29pm

"My sharing of expert scientific data shared by the Indian government is likely to encourage people to minimise their risk."
Nah, anything that suggests a low risk of infection encourages people to ignore social distancing and other rules designed to reduce transmission. As for "scientific data" please! No detail on the survey beyond a blunt statistic and no attempt to consider the under reporting of COVID deaths. And that's before you extrapolate it to Australia with no consideration of the extreme diffences between the nations. Oh and then there is the issue of you trusting Indian government statistics implicitly while clearly not supporting the Australian government's policies. How does that work?
"No one wants death, but throwing the young and healthy under the bus isn’t the best way to handle it."
No we don't want death so you might like to consider that if Australian infections got to the level you claim exists in Delhi, even on your own mortality figures, that would lead to thousands of otherwise preventable deaths. If your figure turned out to be wrong that would be tens of thousands of avoidable deaths.
The only people who have currently been thrown under a bus are those not entitled to Jobkeeper or Jobseeker and who have no other source of income. Many of these are migrant workers and international students and their treatment has been disgraceful given most do not have any chance of getting home. For the rest, no doubt many have suffered a decrease in income and loss of amenity in not being able to do some of the things they would like to do. If you want that ended as soon as possible the best way would be to support the procedures to reduce infections and refrain from throwing around dodgy figures.

fitzroy-21's picture
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fitzroy-21 commented Wednesday, 22 Jul 2020 at 3:30pm

I agree the death rate in proportion to the known infected is in reality, quite low. The information coming out of India, and other countries, of people being infected without knowledge, just shows how little we know about it. Those that do get it, and know about having it, can have symptoms from mild right through to severe/near death.
The one thing I am learning about Covid that is overlooked, is the long term effects to a portion of the population that have had it, something that really won't be known fully for quite a long time. The permanent damage to lungs and respiratory system including the possibility of damage to heart, kidneys, brain,etc.

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GuySmiley commented Wednesday, 22 Jul 2020 at 3:53pm

A very good friend of mine living in London is likely to have had Covid19. I say likely because there is not testing like we are doing here, you just do an online self assessment. He’s in his late 30s, very fit and healthy and was knocked flat and bed ridden with it for 2 weeks. From that low he has steady improved until last week (about 3 months from initial illness) when he got all the symptoms back (fever, headache, no energy) very quickly but this time they all left him within a few days and he’s back to feeling 95% well again. He has zero confidence in the Tory decimated NHS nor his health to take advantage of EU borders opening to travel anywhere in the northern summer.

JQ's picture
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JQ commented Wednesday, 22 Jul 2020 at 4:08pm

Gotta say shoredump, I don't have a great deal of faith in your understanding of statistics and science. Extrapolating the way you did is ridiculous and doesn't help anyone, least of all yourself.

I really don't get your desire to downplay it, to what end?