COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster

Craig's picture
Craig started the topic in Wednesday, 18 Mar 2020 at 7:44pm

I've created a spreadsheet forecast which I'll update as we go..

There's also a website with live running data..

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freeride76 Sunday, 19 Apr 2020 at 10:01am

It's open season for every fucking conspiracy theory kook to milk their 15 minutes of fame.

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philosurphizing... Sunday, 19 Apr 2020 at 11:31am

The long held judgement of the majority of the scientific community was proven wrong in 2009 by Dr. Judy Mikovits and other scientists who discovered that something unexpected and very harmful was happening in laboratories throughout America and the world. They discovered that a retrovirus called XMRV (xenotropic murine retrovirus) and other related retroviruses were now present in 6% of Americans and that this retrovirus was appearing in a very high percentage of people with diseases such as prostate cancer, Chronic Fatigue Syndrome, autism, Lou Gehrig’s Disease, treatment resistant Lyme disease, and Parkinson’s Disease.
The term “xenotropic” indicates that the virus had a non-human origin and it is now able to live and multiply in humans. This retrovirus had an appearance that was similar to mouse virus, but it also had qualities of human virus. It was a chimera – like a mythical beast – part human and part mouse. It was accidentally created in laboratories when a naturally occurring mouse virus recombined with a human virus found in a prostate cancer culture.
This would be confirmed in 2011 by European researchers. Their 2011 article stated:
One of the most widely distributed biological products that frequently involved mouse tissue, at least up until recent years, is vaccines, especially vaccines against viruses … It is possible that XMRV particles were present in virus stocks cultured in mouse cells for vaccine production, and
Vaccines and Retroviruses: A Whistleblower Reveals What the Governm...
7 of 23 6/7/2018, 3:50 PM
that the virus was transferred to the human population by vaccination. [7] Retroviruses Released into the Air and Escape Laboratories
Image source [6].
What scientists didn’t realize was the way they managed their mouse colonies and managed the production of their human cell lines created conditions in laboratories where viruses could unexpectedly mutate and recombine with one another. Even more astounding was the fact that these retroviruses could easily reproduce themselves and travel through the air.
Up until 2009, scientists didn’t know that retroviruses could be aerosolized. Retroviruses that were in mice were being released into the air and travelling through their facilities to other labs where human cell lines were being cultivated. Once there, they were able to infect human cultures. They became part of the cells and part of the products that were made from the activity of the cell lines, such as the antigens used in vaccines. The retroviruses also infected lab workers. Government Cover-up and Lies Thus far, I have provided some very basic information about retroviruses – where they came from and how they facilitate human disease — but there is much more to the story. We need to explore why the U.S. government doesn’t want you to know that many strains of retroviruses exist, and why they don’t want you to suspect that they are making you sick.
I recently spoke with Dr. Judy A. Mikovits, Ph.D., to gather her inside perspective about these questions. Dr. Mikovits has dedicated her life to being a research scientist in honor of her
Vaccines and Retroviruses: A Whistleblower Reveals What the Governm...

Cromwell's picture
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Cromwell Sunday, 19 Apr 2020 at 12:38pm

In the unlikely event that this hypothesis proved correct I would still rather risk chronic fatigue than smallpox, polio, or diphtheria.

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Blowin Sunday, 19 Apr 2020 at 12:56pm

What is your specific field of expertise, BB ?

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Cromwell Sunday, 19 Apr 2020 at 12:56pm

Oh and the autism link to vaccination cited in your link is nonsense. There have been numerous large scale studies into this and the incidence of autism amongst those vaccinated is the same as those not vaccinated so whatever hypothesis is suggested to link them is simply wrong. There is no causal association. See here.

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murphy Sunday, 19 Apr 2020 at 1:09pm

Philo....You forgot to dig a little deeper...or maybe decided not to...if you did you might have discovered this and saved us all a lot of time wading through another conspiracy theory...

In 2009, biologist Judy Mikovits, who was then the research director of the Chronic Fatigue Syndrome-focused Whittemore Peterson Institute (WPI), published a paper on what she and many others thought to be a major scientific breakthrough in the prestigious journal Science. Her team alleged to have demonstrated an association between a newly discovered retrovirus called “xenotropic murine leukemia virus-related virus” (XMRV) and the poorly understood condition known as Chronic Fatigue Syndrome (CFS), suggesting a potential viral cause for CFS.

The paper received substantial international coverage. However, as with so many other potentially groundbreaking studies, nobody — including many of the same researchers involved with the original study — was able to replicate its results. Numerous attempts failed to replicate the study, and the research itself came under increasing scrutiny for sloppy methods and its reliance on misleading or manufactured figures.

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shortenism Sunday, 19 Apr 2020 at 3:21pm

Still at it freeride, too scared to look over the edge..?

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velocityjohnno Sunday, 19 Apr 2020 at 4:47pm

Back to forecasting numbers, does anyone have info on why Singapore numbers are going back up after a small flattening/pause?

And some Sunday music, possibly related to topic:

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velocityjohnno Monday, 20 Apr 2020 at 6:06pm

thanks for that.

"Until April, Singapore appeared to be on top of the outbreak.
But clusters that government testing appears to have missed quickly grew and the number of daily cases shot up.
The more relaxed attitude taken in Singapore compared to other countries was only viable if infections from overseas were kept out, and new potential cases were detected and dealt with quickly.
Once this measure failed, the speed at which the virus could pass from person to person was greater than it would be in a place with heavy lockdown and social distancing measures."

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Monday, 20 Apr 2020 at 6:56pm

Huey forbid any of us gets struck heavily by this virus . Here’s the most practical article I’ve seen if the worst happens

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truebluebasher Tuesday, 21 Apr 2020 at 8:51am

Excellent share Blowin...deserves a companion piece...' been working on one!
This home nursing example describes benefits over restrained hospital bed care.
Calls for more ventilators > [FACT] most covid-19 patients put on ventilators go on to die!
Tip! If they say patients heart gave out...that's most likely the ventilator & they know why!
The longer on the ventilator the more vegetable like the effect...sadly many die from ventilators
All patients were too doped out & restrained to flag warning signs.
tbb + other CPAP patients are least surprised by the high death toll from like ventilators.


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Craig Tuesday, 21 Apr 2020 at 9:04am

Yeah great link there Blowin.

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I focus Tuesday, 21 Apr 2020 at 1:00pm

That was a good find Blowin thanks for putting it up.

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truebluebasher Thursday, 23 Apr 2020 at 7:17pm

tbb will make good with his promise of foreboding revelation...
Most Covid-19 patients put on ventilators die, doctors call for an end to ventilators.
Yet world is obsessed with supplying more ventilators.

tbb knew the answers why but waited until medicos flagged the death toll.
[disclaimer] tbb has sported a mask & machine for 6 years now & knows why!
Do doctors & manufactures support this info for better outcomes. Yes!
If tbb shared best practice..would it be adopted in ICU by Hospitals..sadly not!

Choose: Paper Bags > Puffers > Sleep Cubes > Ventilators > Astronaut Suits.

Air Intake.
Not surprising most share a similar size inflow & pressure. (Lungs are only so big!)
Personal: (Clean) Puffers / Spirometers vs (Contagious) Bongs
Home: (Clean) CPAP > Sea Air vs (Pollutants) Traffic / Factories fumes & dust
ICU: (Contagious) > Many uncleaned valves + Shared gear = more chance of virus.

Air (General)
Personal: (Perfect) Amount is prescribed for individual relief. (No more or Less)
Home: (Improves) Public Settings on Private Machines (tbb controls own settings)
ICU: (Poor) Doctors prescribe by body mass, lastly by patient's physical tolerance.

Air Hose
CPAP outpatients soon know to keep the in tube well below mouth Height.
Closed Body is a Toxic Swamp & humidity rises water up the Air Pipe into mouth.
This Toxic process can lead to Pneumonia real fast as in ventilators. (Tragic!)

[ Important ] CPAP machines therefore store low & are sensibly read from above
Alternatively one can fit heated tubes or tbb > Door Snakes work fine.(Cheaper!)
Outpatients customize Humidity to suit weather or Air Pressure.

ICU are not designed for Outpatients comfort nor for patient to read.
Ventilators are geared to Nurses Working & Reading quickly from suited height.
Therefore (tbb- check 100%) Ventilator inflow tubes feed from above the patient.
Resulting in 1st stage > Regurgitation > Bacteria > Pneumonia > (2 weeks) Death!

Note: Patients are sedated or by Muscle relaxant for intubation.
Complications: Bacteria + Loss of voice for long time...some permanent.

(Explanation) Air pressure is another main reason patients are dying.

tbb ramped down CPAP setting [8] (Above) to ICU Covid-19 settings > [5=low]

PEEP or Exit breath is set at 16 breaths per minute.
CPAP Breaths 'in' per Minute is (7) vs ICU minimum 'out' = 14 > 22 > 35 bpm.
tbb then applied an ICU micro filter to Exaltation Port.

You'll soon feel the exhaustion & pain on a healthy body.
The Filter blocks any correction or catch up breath so tears or puts holes in lungs.
This is called VALI - Ventilator Associated Lung Injury.

Micro Filter is needed in controlled ICU settings...vital to protect nurses.
Nurses need finest Ventilator filters vs Patients need the filter off for rapid healing
Patients are actually stewing in own Toxic juices.(Doctors call it a toxic swamp)
Home care can adopt a more flexible arrangement (See: Blowin-link Above!)

Nearly all medicos swear EP Peep Valve excuses higher bpm as if patient is fine?
Wrong! The micro filter blocks near all Exaltation...Patient is painfully exhausted
After 2 minutes tbb's abdomen was aching & After 5mins regurgitating.(Bacteria!)
Most Patients sense beginning of the end & rip the Hose out ( Hence Sedation!)
This is the first step to VAP Ventilated Assisted Pneumonia!

Nurses monitor all Vitals usually on 4 hr rotation.
In the net few days the aim is to wean patients off the ventilators.

1 Week on...nurses switch from semi invert to prone position to clear the lungs.
(As said) Now the Tubes run downward further...patient is gurgling on humidity.
This is a real serious situation...Likely the turning point for the worse not better.
tbb can only feel the suffocation of Patients at this means to say Stop!

Bed sores, Blood Clots, Skin / nose infection, Blurred ltd vision..constant Noise.

Ventilator Recovery (Months > Years > Never!)
PTS, Delirium, Anxiety, Depression, Cognitive Dysfunction, Memory Loss, Paranoia, Voice / Reading / Writing / Thinking Loss, Scarred painful lungs, Broken Sleep, Muscle Wasting, Respiratory failure without ventilator reliance.

tbb has often mentioned his worsening muscle weekness... more so today! Horrid!
Always thought CPAP may be making my Myositis Worse...
What is never said is poisoning from the VOC Volatile Organic Compounds.
Imagine breathing inside a plastic cupboard for 2 weeks non stop..(That's sick!)

Doctors keep telling us, you'll die without the breathing machines...
[News] Now more are dying plugged into these breathing machines.
What is the World gonna do with a Gazillion Killing Machines?

PS: Salute to Doctors & Nurses! + (Thanks for speaking out!)
This week we see endless medicos pleading that...Ventilators are killing patients.
tbb long thought the same...just stoked that Doctors are onto it big time!
{RIP} To all those that died from Ventilators before the Virus got them..Just horrific!

Fliplid's picture
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Fliplid Thursday, 23 Apr 2020 at 7:37pm

Jeez tbb that’s going to give me nightmares tonight.

Salute to you too

Craig's picture
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Craig Thursday, 23 Apr 2020 at 7:46pm

Wow TBB, very interesting and thanks for detailing all that. It's some great info.

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alsurf Thursday, 23 Apr 2020 at 9:26pm

excellent tbb will be passing this info around, as my son got ventilated assisted injury not too long ago , but doctors weren't to sure on what the cause was .

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Balance Friday, 24 Apr 2020 at 3:51pm

Side note tbb...I'm no longer sure about why that Justin Trudeau gets all the attention he does...surely Pedro Sanchez is a far more attractive man?

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velocityjohnno Friday, 24 Apr 2020 at 8:41pm

Excellent article Blowin. Geez tbb ,that's food for thought. whoa.

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velocityjohnno Friday, 24 Apr 2020 at 8:42pm
Craig's picture
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Craig Friday, 24 Apr 2020 at 9:46pm

Yeah very interesting again VJ, not sure where we go from here eh, can't just keep making money out of thing air. Well you can, but the flow on effects in the long term..

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velocityjohnno Friday, 24 Apr 2020 at 10:15pm

Yep, if there's one thing that's surprised me, it's been how long it has survived with making money out of thin air. I think the more damaging thing that has just occurred, more damaging than the virus; is the profound oil supply shock, and virus-triggered demand shock. That could change things.

Consider for a moment we're playing cards in the smoking room of the Titanic, we sense a jar, a vibration, go outside to see some ice on the deck. Then everything feels moving and smooth again, so we get back to the cards. The ship won't stop for 15 minutes, and it won't begin to list for a half hour.

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Blowin Saturday, 25 Apr 2020 at 12:10am

Great analogy , VJ.

Most fuckers don’t realise that our economy is holed below the waterline and that Scomo’s “ Jobseeker “ is just a line of government credit to big business which simultaneously hides the unemployment rate.

If your on the Jobseeker dole ,you’re not counted as unemployed !

Might be doing wonders for the confidence of the economy....which is something, I guess.

But it does change the fact that Australia is currently taking on water and our bilge pump was offshored due to beneficial arbitrage twenty years ago.

Keep your eyes peeled for who gets thrown a life raft if you’re wondering if neoliberalism has been dealt a death blow . Hint .....the LNP are manning the life rafts with their favourite lobbyists whilst the man in the street starts treading water in sub zero temperatures.

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Cromwell Saturday, 25 Apr 2020 at 8:51am

"our economy is holed below the waterline"
True but we will recover much more rapidly than the US and Europe. As you say the thing to watch is who benefits from that recovery. Morrison has already made it clear he wants a return to tax cuts for business and other trickle down policies but with unemployment still high as the election approaches he might implement more moderate policies.

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views from the ... Saturday, 25 Apr 2020 at 9:28am

Thanks Blowin for the "at home" recovery solution and TBB.s info too
With virtually no chance of getting into a local hospital should it come to that, I have bookmarked your links!
Cheers fellas
PS - interesting VJ article.

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AndyM Saturday, 25 Apr 2020 at 9:40am

VJ - modern monetary theory and do we even have to pay back the debt?

What do you think?

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Cromwell Saturday, 25 Apr 2020 at 10:06am

Andy my take is that mmt is largely correct. As long as the money supply does not exceed productivity it should not produce inflation. The problem is that if the increased money supply is used non-productively to boost the price of existing assets, then it further increases inequality. The money needs to be used as it is being used now, that is being pumped into the economy at a level which will increase demand and, hopefully, boost employment. Unfortunately all the signals so far are that the government intends to go back to business as usual and continue with trickle down economics. The most fundamental economic rule is that the purpose of the economy is to maintain and increase the well being of the community. Neoliberalism has got it arse backwards and has exploited the community to serve a false economy that serves the few at the expense of the many.

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AndyM Saturday, 25 Apr 2020 at 11:00am

So this - " the pandemic stimulus and quantitative easing [are] proof the old rigid economic doctrines are made-up — a way of keeping people working hard with lower expectations"

and this - " taxes do not pay for government spending but are just a way of managing inflation"

are largely true?
If that was widely accepted that'd be somewhat of a game changer, to say the least.

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Cromwell Saturday, 25 Apr 2020 at 11:13am

Why not? If, as is usually the case, there is unmet demand at the same time as unemployment and under-employment, then the economy has the potential to expand and the money supply could increase. Theory is easy, getting it to work in a complex global economy is the difficult bit, but if it is recognised as true, then yes it is a game changer. The dominant paradigm will have been subverted.

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Jamyardy Saturday, 25 Apr 2020 at 12:10pm

"As long as the money supply does not exceed productivity it should not produce inflation."
With respect to Hospitality workers and Airline staff receiving Jobkeeper allowance out of "printed money", would this not create inflation given no bums in seats at restaurants and very few planes in the skies (in effect paying people to not work) ? Possibly those workers are a small piece of the pie and may have very little impact in the scheme of things. Its an interesting theory QE. Why would they not print money to pay for infrastructure projects, then use tax payer money to pay off the national debt, and get rid of it. And like a Govt Bond, they do say it has to be repaid, and what happens in 10yrs time (or whatever period) and if the economy is not in better shape and they are unable to pay back that low interest rate "loan". Interesting times ahead.

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Cromwell Saturday, 25 Apr 2020 at 12:35pm

I don’t think so as it is replacing their income at a lower level and so will be spent mainly on essentials they would have bought anyway so no increase in demand.

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Johan Wohlleben Saturday, 25 Apr 2020 at 11:49pm

Wow tb b, my wife is a nurse and has been stressing big time about the possible Covid influx. Mostly about courses on intubation and respirators. Not actually treating anyone as cases are low in WA. Makes you wonder sometimes.

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tylerdurden Sunday, 26 Apr 2020 at 8:18am

One of the many benefits of flattening the curve is the ability to learn from other countries. Intubation is not necessarily the answer.
Non-invasive ventilation is preferred until absolutely necessary, and the intubation rate in some centres have gone down. Initially because of a lack of ventilators so therefore people just sat on a ward but then they realised a lot of these people did quite well.
Each place is different but with time more controlled trials will show the optimal treatment for a given set of circumstances, and as a country with relatively low numbers at this point we can learn from that and apply the knowledge if and when it gets bad here.
Early drug treatment and non-invasive ventilation may be the optimal therapy, will have to wait and see

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indo-dreaming Sunday, 26 Apr 2020 at 8:58am

Australia is killing it now, last 5 days haven't gone over 20 new cases a day and even as low as 4 cases a day.

We have gone from about 20 on a world scale to about 40+

Comparing per one million, cases and deaths we are even now doing better than NZ

Aus= 263
NZ= 303


Which is impressive as we took less strict lock down measures and had the added influx from that damn Ruby Princess cruise liner.

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truebluebasher Sunday, 26 Apr 2020 at 10:34am

First Up ...Big Salute to all Anzac / frontline crews & Families

Thanx all for reading painstaking research, all will be rewarded with next level gig.
tbb is not saying that lightly, as we may yet need a minor $50 upgrade.(No pain!)
Again a huge salute to Doctors who are open to any possible tiny glitch...Heroes!

Abominable Snowman's Cold [ X File ] gets more hits than Bat Shit Crazy Wetlab Ratz
Fellow conspiracy theorists cop a pie in their face from Sci Fi Movie 'The Thing'.
Starting to look like yer average garden variety alien bug...nothin' weird to see here!

Frosbite (Covid Toes) as in (Purple) Toes in younger Adult Covid-19 Patients

Happy Hypoxics refers to Living Dead patients multi tasking on half Oxygen levels.
Incredibly creepy Covid -19 is such that patient slowly adapts until near chronic.
Totally unaware of any loss of half their breathing function (Silent Hypoxia)
If this were to happen in standard ICU they'd be dead...(re: US > Zombies > guns)

Covid-19 > Frostbite > Low Blood Oxygen > ARDS > Pneumonia > Hypoxemia > Sepsis

Doc's prescription...could save a lot of lives & wasted resource...

Tip: Covid-19 latest must have, finger on the pulse Panic Buy
What's New > [Oximeters]...Wot? Them nifty finger clips...don't ask...just buy one already!
Chemist Warehouse flagged a strict 20million Oximeter Limit per / Chinese buyer.

Online $25 (Chinese Knockoff) Slightly or maybe (Heavily) trampled item..

Dump the Amazonian Tracker App for Oximeter Perimeter
Rather be probed by a tiny prick than violated by big brother Amazonian members.

Huey: "Wish you were here yesterday...keep paddlin' crew, next set for sure!"

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velocityjohnno Sunday, 26 Apr 2020 at 12:02pm

Further to Indo:

Latest charts show downtrend in cases, watch those community known/community unknown cases (small numbers). But overall we are doing well.

Updated snapshot for regional Vic

WHO 'No Evidence' that previous COVID patients have immunity, paper published Friday.

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udo Sunday, 26 Apr 2020 at 12:37pm

Slim from baliwaves has new update on Bali life atm.

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Fliplid Sunday, 26 Apr 2020 at 12:45pm

Are they Covid toes Udo?

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velocityjohnno Sunday, 26 Apr 2020 at 6:29pm

From the Age:

"Victoria will not bow to pressure by winding back its strict stay-at-home orders at least until May 11 when the current state of emergency ends, Chief Health Officer Brett Sutton has said."

Profile of nations doing well. ZAF looks to be still increasing with a later start. SKorea has few transmissions now.

Singapore responds to infections amongst migrant workers

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Blowin Sunday, 26 Apr 2020 at 8:06pm


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mowgli Thursday, 30 Apr 2020 at 11:19am

not sure if Cromwell was supportive of making dollars to spend on Infra.

But from the reading I've done over and the people I've spoken to over the years, that is definitely the best approach. So long as there are robust local procurement criteria, to ensure that when the big global infra firms naturally come a running (as they did during and immediately after the GFC, notably from Spain and Canada) to tender for such projects, as much of the money as possible stays onshore.

This is the best approach (along with closing all the tax loophole non-sense for multi-nationals and the wealthy, and even getting rid private healthcare subsidies...but perhaps that's a forum stoush for another day/thread!).....because it:
(1) we've got backlog of infrastructure upgrade/replacement needs, especially of the more ecologically sustainable kind (i'm talking energy but also fast rail....fucking ever expanding highways lanes do sweet fuck all)
(2) spending via procurement creates a competitive process, leading to favourable cost-benefit results (well, historically it did, before State and Fed pollies of both sides started doing all these terrible PPP deals that help rent-seekers like TransUrban make a motza)
(3) Infrastructure is a pretty broad term; lots of different asset classes are in need. This leads to a raft of new SMEs popping up to sub-contract to the larger players. This in turn leads to capital spend on plant and facilities, which then flows out to other local suppliers (e.g. the local Kennards or Titan Shed franchisee).
(4) The Infrastructure needs are country-wide. So it's a pretty good way of spreading the dosh, and it also helps to pick up any workers laid off from the mining and residential/apartment construction sectors.
(5) Yes it takes a bit longer (anywhere from 6-18 months) for that money to start spreading across the economy, but it does abetter job at doing this than just giving every punter $1000 to spend on whatever they like. Which is typically some food, perhaps some whitegoods, and bevvies. It doesn't lead to the greater return per $ you get from #1-4 above.

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velocityjohnno Monday, 4 May 2020 at 12:21pm

Outbreak in meat works in Melbourne's western suburbs:

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velocityjohnno Monday, 4 May 2020 at 12:21pm

Outbreak in meat works in Melbourne's western suburbs:

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Vic Local Monday, 4 May 2020 at 1:13pm

Mowgli, In terms of infrastructure development, Australia has made some really bad choices, and this virus has changed all the decision making dynamics. There's been a large depopulation in the country and there's no short term political appetite for international skilled labour or bigger foreign student numbers. Also the home working revolution, and general economic decline, means the number of journeys made will be significantly less than predicted. Looks like we are building some big white elephants in the transport sector. Could be worse, Korea is half way through a 24,000 unit container ship building program. Container ships with that capacity are about as popular as New Cruise Ships at the moment. But hey, we're getting $60 billion subs. Wooohoooo.

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velocityjohnno Wednesday, 6 May 2020 at 1:07pm

What we need is surely a monorail.

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zenagain Wednesday, 6 May 2020 at 1:10pm

Ha ha!

and an Ostrich farm.

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velocityjohnno Wednesday, 6 May 2020 at 1:11pm

Meatworks outbreak update:

"The Cedar Meats coronavirus cluster continues to grow following revelations health authorities failed to alert the abattoir when the first case was diagnosed more than a month ago.

Four extra cases have been identified in the past 24 hours, bringing the cluster to almost 50 people – making it Victoria’s biggest known outbreak of COVID-19.

A cluster was first suspected by the health department on April 24, but the government has since revealed an initial case was actually diagnosed more than a month ago, on April 2."

"At the time, the health department did not consider the Brooklyn meatworks to be an exposure site because the infected person said he wasn't at work while infectious for "weeks" beforehand and all the time he was symptomatic."

"A second and third person linked to the cluster were diagnosed on April 24 and 25, but the health department did not advise the company to test all 350 workers until April 30 – when even more cases were discovered."

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velocityjohnno Wednesday, 6 May 2020 at 1:16pm

This is concerning.

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velocityjohnno Wednesday, 6 May 2020 at 1:25pm

Ha ha!

and an Ostrich farm."

That's nothing Zen, wait for my First Pet Homeowners Grant - up to $800K toward each family pet obtaining its own first property. Budgies count too. That will keep up house prices!