COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster

Craig's picture
Craig started the topic in Wednesday, 18 Mar 2020 at 7:44pm

I've created a spreadsheet forecast which I'll update as we go..

There's also a website with live running data..

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GuySmiley Monday, 18 May 2020 at 9:15pm

Not sure about that Andy, Indo prefers his female politicians to be unintelligent, inarticulate, mostly illiterate who speak in single syllables like Hanson. The very same dumb arse politician who was caught red handed trying to get money out of the far right’s NRA on the promise of subverting Australia’s gun laws. It’s Pauline that leaves Indo all hot and bothered!

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Distracted Monday, 18 May 2020 at 9:19pm

Comparing stats between countries very difficult due to different definitions and data collection methods. Death rate might be one comparison, see article from BBC using that shows an extra 10,000 dead in a week in UK above the five year average.
So it’s not a hoax.... but it’s a very sneaky virus. It’s going to create a massive ethical dilemma between economy and the health care of the aged and susceptible.
Still don’t get why Indo is not getting smashed though.

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Blowin Monday, 18 May 2020 at 9:26pm

Yes , I think hoax is probably the wrong word.

I don’t doubt there’s a deadly disease getting around. Things just dont add up though.

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GuySmiley Monday, 18 May 2020 at 9:29pm

Media Watch ABC TV tonight is giving Alan Jones the farewell the shit stain deserves, apparently over 500 advertisers left 2GB after his attacks on ... Jacinta Ardern, speeding up his “retirement”.

Vic Local's picture
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Vic Local Monday, 18 May 2020 at 9:32pm

Distracted, I would say Indonesia's figures are much worse than reported simply because of the way their society is structured and the limited medical care in villages.
The average PusKesMas wouldn't have the ability to test for the virus. Kepala Desas would not be notified of all Covid deaths, and they may not be passing on figures further up the chain.
Interesting that the four countries with the highest number of infections are all lead by nationalistic strongmen / showmen. All these countries saw spikes in infections about a month after Italy and Iran got whacked. Who knew listening to experts was important?

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AndyM Monday, 18 May 2020 at 9:33pm

Jeez I love Jacinda ;)

Vic Local's picture
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Vic Local Monday, 18 May 2020 at 9:35pm

True that Guysmiley. Jones deserved to get absolutely roasted. It's going to be interesting when the bully loses his pulpit. I suspect many of his victims are going to be dishing out some revenge when Jones can't strike back.

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Vic Local Monday, 18 May 2020 at 9:38pm

"Africa was supposed to have “ a quarter of a billion deaths “ !!!!!"
Still waiting on your source Blowin.
Come on big fella. Show us who made that claim or put up your hand a say, "I was wrong, I make things up".

Dale -Cooper's picture
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Dale -Cooper Tuesday, 19 May 2020 at 8:59am

Alan Jones may have vacated the 2GB dungeon, but he'll still be (mal)lingering.

God's waiting room awaits. AKA Sky After Dark.

Where brain cells go to die.

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sypkan Tuesday, 19 May 2020 at 10:29am

it'd be nice if people could at least try to be a bit objective in these hyperpatisan times, as it seems we're heading to a weird and dangerous place, where no one is willing to listen to anything that doesn't align with one's own tribe.

Yes trump has made a bit of a mess of things, but it was a fuck up with tests from the CDC that spawned much of america's woes, you won't hear about that at wapo or nyt. luckiky 4 corners had a look at it. this combined with a hyper combative political landscspe is what has fucked the US over more than anything else, and that ain't all donny's fault...

consider the calling of flight bans as 'racist', and pelosi pushing for business as usual in downtown chinatown,'ve really gotta wonder if the numbers could have been much better. ...I don't need to wonder actually, the open borders froot loops would've been way slow to act...

"...Beyond the mere partisan bias involved, however, the media’s fear-mongering has inflicted serious damage. Sean Trende of RealClearPolitics has examined how failed prophecies of COVID-19 doom tend to disappear down the memory hole. The doomsayers typically refuse to admit they were wrong, and “a failure to acknowledge errors foments cynicism and further distrust of experts.” Because of this failure, a crucial question goes unanswered: Why were they wrong?

...all this, combined with censorship trigger fingers at youtube, fb, etc. it is all setting us up for a massive crisis of confidence going forward I reckon., we are not already there... you ain't seen nothing yet...

It seems the west is plagued by our success. successfull developments in health, society, maagement etc. have empowered us considerably, but they have also made us vulnurable. keeping the oldies ticking away, preserved in hospitals, and homes away from family, means we have new challenges and dilemmas to face that have effected our numbers significantly.

compare this to countries lke indo, where oldies are not as 'preserved' generally, and still live with family til death, of course outcomes will vary greatly

" Fumento put it, in the early stages of a contagious outbreak “the disease grabs the low-hanging fruit,” killing the most vulnerable, but as time goes on, the disease “finds it progressively harder to get more fruit." In the case of COVID-19, the most vulnerable were the elderly and people with certain underlying health problems, such as obesity, hypertension, and diabetes. Many people reading this column are in one of these high-risk categories, but you’re not dead yet, are you? Why not? You may believe that “social distancing” accounts for your survival, and you may be right. On the other hand, however, you may have already been infected with the coronavirus and recovered without ever experiencing serious symptoms. As testing for the virus has become more widespread, we have learned that asymptomatic cases are quite common. For example, when staff and inmates at a Tennessee prison were tested last month, more than half tested positive for coronavirus, but 98 percent of those who did test positive were asymptomatic. Such results point to the likelihood that the number of people infected by COVID-19 is much larger than the number of reported cases, and that in turn indicates that the disease is much less deadly, in terms of what’s called “infection fatality rate” (IFR.) A recent study in Indianaconcluded that about 45 percent of infected people never developed symptoms, and only 1 in 173 infections were fatal, an IFR of 0.58 percent."

much new 'evidence' about asymptonmatic cases, indo, jails, france, it looks like the virus may have already been allowed to rip through many societies, and we were none the wiser...

it's very well known that viruses affect different societies, countries, and environments very differently, maybe it was actually a bit dumb to lockdown whole countries, clearly new york is a vastly different place to an isolated farm, yet some argue 'the freedum fighters' are too dumb to know what's good for them, hindsight will reveal all...

the whole thing is looking a bit hoaxy atm, a bit overcooked, totally overdone,

a few months ago that definitely wasn't the case

we learn and move on from such events as this, hopefully

that's what we used to do anyway...

Vic Local's picture
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Vic Local Tuesday, 19 May 2020 at 11:30am

"no one is willing to listen to anything that doesn't align with one's own tribe."
Sypkan, I'm happy to listen to opinions that differ from my own. What I'm not prepared to do is let completely untrue statements stand without correction. This is especially the case when fabrications are used to justify a racist agenda.
If people let racist bullshit go unchecked, it leads to a very dark place.

Dale -Cooper's picture
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Dale -Cooper Tuesday, 19 May 2020 at 1:08pm

For the media/political landscape, I think an easy-to-use 'grifter recognition' app should be mandatory.

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sypkan Tuesday, 19 May 2020 at 1:47pm

I wasn't talking about you two specifically

...but if the shoe seems comfy...

there was an article in there somewhere, but it was spectator, so....

on it goes

carry on...

Dale -Cooper's picture
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Dale -Cooper Tuesday, 19 May 2020 at 2:03pm

Obviously haven't downloaded the GR app, have you Sepp?

Apps! We don't need no stinkin' apps!

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truebluebasher Monday, 20 Jul 2020 at 6:38pm

Bat shit crazy lady's Coronavirus recipe

1994 Hendra virus victims + 1996 Lyssavirus victims

2006 CSIRO Vic employ Shi Zhengli (3months) + 2011-14 Zhou Peng (Doctorate)
Testing / Papers were joint funded by Oz CSIRO /China WIV
2006-13 With CSIRO isolation method Shi / Peng linked Horseshoe bats to SARS

2009 PREDICT are Global (61 countries) 5yr Cycles to study (pandemics)
Testing involves 140,00 animal samples many from (Wet Market hunters)
2016/7 China BL4 Lab/s come on line as World's frontline research.
WHO argue to drop City/Country name shaming as disincentive to China's BL4
Any new virus ...(In this case) Corona Virus Disease 19 or Covid-19
CSIRO former employees head up WIV BL4 (France / US are main funding)
Wuhan Institute of Virology is Bat Lady's PREDICT HQ.

2016 - US Review > (WIV) Shortage of Bio Safety
2018 - US Inspections > Risky studies, poor safety
2018 - US Review > Mismanagement & mishandling of disposal
Dr Richard Ebright tried tirelessly to end such careless research.
18 Dec 2018 - Sydney Uni (Bio security) warn of Pandemic.

20 Feb 2019 - CSIRO (Tracking trials of Oz Pandemic) see: US Crimson Contagion.
Aug 2019 - Australian Heath Management Plan for Pandemic Influenza.(Update >Borders)$File/w-AHMPPI-2019.PDF

2019 Shi identifies the need for 'chimeric' receptor.(Consumed twin strengthens the Spike to humans)
WIV + WCDCP are built near Wildlife Markets for exotic bounty & trade back deals.
Local Wet Market traders & suppliers (Most local customers) are immune to viruses.
Note: Virus experts warned of Test Monkeys biting & scratching..(re: in a market!)
Delivery boys do their usual Lab to Wet Market rounds
10 years of brewing critters with high metabolic rates headed for the Market !
Example of known like cross species coronavirus test creatures
(Reservoir)- Horse shoe Bat -
(Vessel)- Himalayan Civet (aka Pneumonia)
(Spike)- Pig< >Monkey (Chimera) @ nearby lab.(For Frozen Embryos)
Traders & Customers, now Test subjects for Coronavirus, whether they or Lab knew it.
As the lab critters were being sold off at the wet Markets (Standard practice)
Scientists seemingly thought Wet market immunity would contain lab flu's & any virus.
A casual extension of the lab tests, upon 'known- non contagious' human guinea pigs .
First were nearby mall 'flu victims' & were contagious, but nothing too sinister.
These would be from the final stages of 'near spiked' coronavirus animals.
As coronavirus 'spiked animals' mixed in, it became an uncontrolled end game test.
10 years all or nothing...could the' lab coronavirus' - spike a known 'immune trader.'

Unforeseen 'Flu' (Coronavirus) cases are reported from the Wet Market.

End of November a huge fire destroys 'evidence' in the Market..(All fridges, the lot)
Then more 'Flu cases' appear!
26-30th Dec WHO office ignored reports & fails to investigate or inform.
Dr Zhang Jixian (Hubei Provincial) informed of 180 novel coronavirus cases.
Taiwanese officials alerted WHO of potential outbreak
31st Dec- China reported virus to WHO (Much after 24 hrs #1 directive).

1st Jan - Shi was personally notified of (Viral) hospital patients > transferred to Institute.
1st Jan - { The Markets were bio blasted }...oddly traders were allowed to retrieve Fish...only!
2nd Jan -WIV boss Yanyi Wang: "Say nothing!"
2nd Jan- Reporter is jailed for 76 days reporting coronavirus genome.
5th Jan- Dr Zhang Yongzhen (Shanghai PHCC) Sequences the Genome (Withheld)
Early Jan - China orders original samples of virus to be destroyed.
11th Jan- Dr Zhang publishes online ....the next day >
12th Jan- China closes Dr Zhang's Lab for Rectification
Early Jan -China orders all early samples of virus to be destroyed.
14th Jan- WHO can't be sure if Wuhan virus is transmitted between Humans.
28th Jan - WHO heaps praise on China for handling & sharing info.
30th Jan - WHO declares virus a concern
31st Jan - CSIRO 1st to grow the virus outside of sister lab WIV.(re:Doherty Lab)

3rd Feb - WHO: Spread is slow, risk is low > 5m leave Wuhan for international destinations.
16 Feb - WHO Team arrive in China (Selected members were not allowed to visit Wuhan.)

3 March - WHO: Covid 19 does not transmit as effectively as the Flu.
11 March - WHO ("Pandemic") by now in 114 countries (100,000 cases/ 4,000 dead)
31st March WIV is 110% sterilized as contract expires

30th April - Trump claims he has proof that WIV started the Pandemic.

1st May - OZ PM reckons not the Slab but the Lab's Wet Market is the Hot Spot!
WHO Emergency Committee endorses investigation into origins of outbreak.
18th May - Australia tables Covid-19 "origin" investigation endorsed by WHA .
18th May- US gives notice to leave WHO (effective-6 July 2021) Quality Letter!

20th May - China places Tariffs on OZ trade.
Big Pharm now own 50%+ stake in WHO & boss measly Member States.

PM: Oz funded & partnered Wuhan Institute of Virology...
WIV also supply Resmed Covid Drugs for ( US [+] $3,120 / patient)
WIV 10 year funding ran out end of Sept 2019 + 6 month rushed end game..
Program extended to 31st March...long enough to trial Chinese Experiment.

61' participating WHO countries all agree (Their WHO lab is 100% sterile of guilt)
All since demand that the Lab's Wet Market be Nuked one more time.
Jiang Shi Cheng : "Shut your Stinky Mouth!"

sypkan's picture
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sypkan Tuesday, 19 May 2020 at 3:39pm

you're onto it tbb, all over it

it's a sordid little tale, most of it already proven true

but it's all conspiracy theory

velocityjohnno's picture
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velocityjohnno Tuesday, 19 May 2020 at 3:57pm

tbb good digging


all the corona news that's fit to print, reported without fear or favour:

might want to send that to 'empty stadium seats' on twitter

Vic Local's picture
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Vic Local Tuesday, 19 May 2020 at 4:01pm

"we learn and move on from such events as this, hopefully
that's what we used to do anyway"
That's not how things work in the days of alternate facts and the loudest megaphone.
The days of examining the evidence and coming up with a sensible policy have long gone. What we see now is nutcase politicians having a policy and then reverse engineering the facts to justify it. Anyone with a different opinion is wilfully ignored or hounded down. Remember the firefighters who were ignored because Smoko didn't want to hear any contrary opinions about climate change? How did that work out for Australia?
Remember when George W Bush was desperate to invade Iraq, he made up a story about their (non-existent) WMDs and brandished a dossier as proof they existed? What a fucking ongoing disaster that turned out to be. Trump has taken this attitude to a whole new level, even to the point where he's taking (or lying about taking) a useless drug, with serious side effects, to combat Covid 19.
These fuckers argue especially hard when they know they are completely wrong.
Sorry sypkan, but debating these crackpots is pointless. You can't change their minds. Calling out their bullshit and hoping others can spot it too is the only sensible option.

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indo-dreaming Tuesday, 19 May 2020 at 4:59pm

In Blowins defence he probably just said billion instead million.

As the prediction about a month ago was for over quarter of a million deaths in Africa or I've seen 300,000 thrown around by the WHO last month.

And recent predictions are Africa will end up with a quarter of a billion cases.

It's hard to know exactly what to think about figures, deaths etc in Indonesia as there is many factors like lack of testing etc, but it does seem like Indonesia and many other tropical climate countries are not getting hit as hard as many expected,

The minister of tourism in Indonesia has said this week they hope to open Bali and other areas of Indo to tourism by October.

Guess we will wait and see.

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Blowin Tuesday, 19 May 2020 at 5:13pm

Indo , from what I’ve seen you’re probably right about the Africa numbers.

Must’ve been 250M infections. Even going off the 2 percent mortality they’re calling it sounds ridiculous. That equates to 5 Million deaths.

That’s the WHO prediction for the FIRST YEAR of the virus. Seeing the virus has been around since the start of the year, that means approximately 249,990,000 deaths in the next seven months.

That is 1,190,381 deaths every day till New Year’s Eve.....Lol.

And yet people get upset that “ experts “ arent getting their due respect after they’ve been wrong time after time.

The same WHO which said attempting to prevent intercontinental transmission of the virus by containment was racist .

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Tuesday, 19 May 2020 at 5:17pm

Just found this :

The WHO is saying that 250 M Africans will get Wuflu in the first year leading to 190K deaths ......huh ?

That’s a mortality rate of less than 0.1 percent.

Even their doomsday scenarios say it’s a hoax.

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Vic Local Tuesday, 19 May 2020 at 5:42pm

Oh FFS Blowin, get your millions and your billions straight.
One paragraph you kind of admit you fucked up your previous post and say it's 250,000,00 infections (not deaths) and the very next paragraph your back talking about "249,990,000 deaths in the next seven months."
You've got the arrogance/stupidity of Otto from A Fish Called Wanda and the numeric abilities of Dr Evil from Austen Powers!!!

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Tuesday, 19 May 2020 at 6:04pm

Wait a minute....Vic Local is right about something for once.

Bit of beer addition going down there.

Should read 5 million deaths in 210 days = 23810 deaths per day.

Still , those calcs are pointless now , the WHO has determined that it is just a flu , bro.

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Blowin Tuesday, 19 May 2020 at 6:10pm

BTW ...Vic Local.

I may be in a good mood now , but why not lay off the ridiculous following me around and insulting me with every post ?

I’m trying real hard to respect Stu and Ben’s wishes to clean the site up a bit by not responding in the manner you deserve. Perhaps you could act accordingly.

How’s that sound ?

No safety nets , cobber. Act like a human being or don’t bother responding to anything I write.

Spare me the blah blah justifications for your new found amusement of typing naughty words and just give it a miss. I’m not interested.

AndyM's picture
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AndyM Tuesday, 19 May 2020 at 6:18pm

Maybe VL is more of a Brenda than a Karen...

Vic Local's picture
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Vic Local Tuesday, 19 May 2020 at 6:21pm

Just get your facts right and lay off the racism and we're all good blowin. Keep posting BS, and I will keep calling you out for it.
Fare deal I think. Maybe stick to posting about fishing.

Vic Local's picture
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Vic Local Tuesday, 19 May 2020 at 6:31pm

Really Andy M. Go back and re-read the thread. I'm not the one questioning the experts and making up figures to back up the conspiracy theory that the virus is a hoax. That's Brenda blowin's gig, not mine.

truebluebasher's picture
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truebluebasher Tuesday, 19 May 2020 at 6:41pm

tbb only wondered why every world leader was scared of the lab! (Call me silly!)

Key Research Glossary
Science = (ACE2) / [S]pike / chimera / Furin .

Dr No = Daszak flips the truth to argue for no limits & more money
Trump's NIH sidekick is soon going the same way as the WHO.

Good Guy = Dr Richard Ebright tried his best to stop evil, deserves a science award.

Credit where it's due...
Here's some decent world Journos that will restore your trust in Media.

Justin Fendos

Fred Guterl, Naveed Jamali, Tom O'Connor

Simone McCarthy, Linda Lew, William Zheng, Echo Xie & Phoebe Zhang

Ian Birrell

Dale -Cooper's picture
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Dale -Cooper Tuesday, 19 May 2020 at 6:48pm

Yeah, gotta agree with Vic.

Who's ticking all those boxes again, Andy?

Gossipy and addicted to booze? Check.

Googles and believes they're an expert? Check.

Summons the manager? Check.

Left out the bog-standard bigotry and weird foul mouth psychological projection.

But you get the picture...

Dale -Cooper's picture
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Dale -Cooper Tuesday, 19 May 2020 at 6:49pm

Well, the rest of us do, anyway.

truebluebasher's picture
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truebluebasher Tuesday, 19 May 2020 at 9:58pm

swellnet bookclub

Crew review this week's best seller...
"The Eyes of Darkness" by Dean Koontz.

Why change 1981 Gorki Lab to Wuhan Lab & why in 1996..

1956 Wuyan Lab/s > were off the radar until post SARS > US 2005 Testing.
1981 Aids > Mostly shared needles were the nasty bit thru > 2000's
1989 China Tiananmen Square horrified folk for a decade on?
1993 Simpsons Episode ...Simpsons did have a certain sharp cred back then.
1996 Without internet why would a US Author change Labs without inside word.
Millennium Bug + Computer Viruses soon scared the fuck outta everyone!

Here are the altered Passages...see what you think!
Bloody top notch scare either way!

Late '90's makes this an all ages Gig! C'mon crew, what trip is this new waver on?

velocityjohnno's picture
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velocityjohnno Tuesday, 19 May 2020 at 10:18pm

yep tbb you are getting there, wait till you find the yoichi articles...

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tylerdurden Wednesday, 20 May 2020 at 10:01am

For all the experts on here, remember that the incidence of anything has a numerator and a denominator. Picking apart faults in quantifying both gives you an estimate of the accuracy of the process.
In terms of Covid-19 there is a discrepancy between overall prevalence vs cases tested positive because there is a massive variation worldwide in availability and rates of testing. The denominator is positive tests, not overall true prevalence. Numerator is death rate, again questionable due to definition of a Covid related death bring highly variable.
Both numerator and denominator have false positives and negatives....think about all these things before you criticise any government or health agency when they produce figures

Craig's picture
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Craig Wednesday, 20 May 2020 at 10:08am

To true TD.

shortenism's picture
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shortenism Wednesday, 20 May 2020 at 10:54am

Its all a storm in a teacup, a monumental scam, which ever way you look at it. This narrative being introduced around the 'the new normal', 'things we'll never be the same'.. I hope all your radar's are pinging hard when you're hearing that. Here's a prediction = restrictions will ease slightly, then there will be another 'outbreak' sometime in Spring/early summer, which will trigger lockdown #2 just in time for the mandatory vaccine (that is already ready because its not a vaccine), which out of desperation will be largely accepted.

mowgli's picture
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mowgli Wednesday, 20 May 2020 at 11:58am

TD on to it. I think those who say "mass numbers predicted for X & Y developing nations, but numbers not there????", whilst in the same breath admitting that they understand the data collection in these places is probably well below par....but finish/open by saying "honestly guys, it's probably all over blown ya see?"- may want to re-read their sentence inconsistencies. You come across as a little bit loopy/ranty.

If listening carefully to what the likes of Australia's CMO, and Fauci et al actually say; the only things that there's certainty on are:
- There is a massive range in the methods and scale of testing - for live symptomatic cases, for live asymptomatic cases, for deaths, and for antibodies - going on, by country, let alone even across some State/Provincial jurisdictions.
- So we won't have a high level of confidence about what has, is and might transpire until we have consistent, mass data collection, where variables across the different approaches can be controlled for.
- Very, very low % of Australian population have formal qualifications in epidemiology and other relevant disciplines.*
- China definitely sought to cover it up from the beginning and is now trying to position itself as the good guy/saviour because it wants to supplant the US as the global hegemonic power.**

As for those (I think you're one of them Blowin'?), saying things to the effect "look, this massive number was forecast, and just like Y2K, it never really eventuated", may want to consider the message underpinning this Betoota Advocate article...

The reason Y2K didn't result in the end of modern society/total disaster is because...the predictions were made...they were sound....with enough time in steps were taken by people who knew what they were doing to avoid mass unmitigated disaster...those steps worked....hey presto. But with Y2K, and perhaps with SARS-COV-2, the media blathered on and on about it much more and for much longer than they needed to. But we can all help with that but not clicking on any articles in relation to it. Believe me, they do adapt content on a topic based on how many people are reading it...

* & ** I clearly added this in for the lols but also they're totally on the money.

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mowgli Wednesday, 20 May 2020 at 11:51am

Oh, and there's also this one from The Shovel...

So we can add this to the long list of things a surprisingly large proportion of Australian's (and elsewhere) have qualifications in along with virology, vaccination, climate change, bushfires, AI, robots, investing (especially property) microeconomics....

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sypkan Wednesday, 20 May 2020 at 1:30pm

Its all a storm in shorternism's teacup. a monumental scam it seems, looking at it from one of the luckiest places on earth. This narrative of a 'new normal' and 'things will never be the same' could lead to a real positive change, as we finally realise the futility of competing in the daily rush hour 7.00-18.00 grind. but I hope you all have your radar's cranked, as the surveilance state is right at your door. Here's a prediction (a somewhat obvious logical chronological one) = restrictions will ease slightly (yesterday), then there will be another 'outbreak' sometime in Spring/early summer, as complacency and lessening restrictions naturally allow a second spike, which will trigger lockdown #2 just in time for a (possible) mandatory vaccine, pending virus severity (that's already being flat out pursued leading to some questionable credibility) which out of desperation will be largely accepted.

not having a go shorternism, just taking the conspiracy lens out of the equation

fwiw, i see how you see it that way, but I reckon it just comes down to worldviews. it's basically cooperation versus collusion versus conspiracy...

choose your own perspective

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Blowin Wednesday, 20 May 2020 at 1:03pm

Geez , Mowgli , a person isn’t allowed to have an opinion now ?

This isn’t China . No one is endangered by the open questioning af a situation which has totally disrupted society and will continue to do so for decades now that our nation is so heavily indebted. If I’m told that I can’t visit my family, meet friends or travel then too right the authorities dictating rules better be accountable .

Nowhere have I claimed to be an expert. This ludicrous trend whereby it’s common to publicly shame for daring question authority is a fucking disgrace. Such cutting satire suggesting that someone has to be an expert to hold an opinion ! The real experts are so routinely wrong that there comes a time when every thing they say has to be taken with a grain of salt.

Not sure why you focus on regular punters having an opinion when those opinions are LITERALLY no less correct than the expert advice anyway. Wrong is wrong irrespective of who’s saying it. At least the bloke in the street has an excuse to be wrong ...they’re just fucking guessing.

The expert prediction for 60 million deaths was widely reported ....hows that looking ? Note this statement from the very pinnacle of expert knowledge at 1:40


So how about easing up on the ridicule of those who have started in good faith only to have ineptitude, blatant incompetence and the utter lack of genuine insight thrown repeatedly in our face by those we are supposed to defer to ? I understand that the gathering of knowledge on the virus is an ongoing process you understand this ? The fact that so little is known about the virus is exactly why the narrative is doubtful. When the experts repeatedly fail to show any comprehension of the situation why would you retain faith in them ?

As for the figures .....Take Iran as an example. When the virus was peaking there was no ambiguity about testing , symptomatic , asymptomatic . The virus was obvious and undeniable. People were dying .

The Iranian government let the virus go nuts. People were encouraged to lick that famous prayer wall in order to avoid the virus. The spread of the disease could not have been enabled any better.

Total death toll of about 7000 out of a population of 82M. Less than 9 people dead out of every 100,000 and they are virtually all octogenarians. How has this not been accounted for ?

Don’t blame me when I begin to doubt the experts after they’d predicted hundreds of thousands of deaths and it’s not even 10K.

Don’t blame me for developing a healthy skepticism after being told that Indonesia would see 80,000 deaths per week in April when the death rate at the time was and is a minute fraction of this amount.

I’m just someone reading bullshit claim after bullshit claim when I’ve got nothing else to go off. The fact that I’m not an epidemiologist renders me vulnerable to the false claims being constantly thrown around. Exactly how many times am I to believe a prediction/ statement only to have it not just fail to eventuate , but to find that is totally , wildly , fantastically inaccurate before I’m allowed to start doubting what I’m told ?

Exactly how many guesses does an expert get before their credibility is in question ?

And in the meantime...I will keep having an opinion. I make no claim to expertise. If people were only allowed to pass opinions on subjects to which they were highly qualified then virtually every topic would be out of bounds. You couldn’t even comment on the weather.

* Yes , it’s Sky news. Ad Hominem. Ad Hominem. Whatever.
The relevant bit is video of the head of the WHO. Smart people can ignore the rest. Although 4:40 is worth watching also just to see how owned the WHO is.

PS Did you know that the average age of Wuflu mortality in the USA is higher than the average lifespan ?

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mowgli Wednesday, 20 May 2020 at 1:12pm

Oh's another long one...

Man you get defensive more often than not, Blowin. I'm convinced some times (not always, because you do seem to be on the receiving end of - IMO - unjustified ad hominem attacks when it comes to your thoughts on immigration, China, etc) you seem to read far too much into what people may/may not be saying about you, and this perhaps clouds your vision in the sense you completely miss what else they did/didn't say...

To wit...

"a person isn’t allowed to have an opinion now ?" Of course they are. I thought it was clear my post is framed rather to point out that perhaps people put forth these opinions a little strongly, given they seemingly know very little. That is to say, opinion presented as "it's quite clearly obvious to anyone with a brain!"...perhaps that's just my interpretation of what people put forth here (though the rhetoric of many would support otherwise). But genuine attempts at objectivity seem to be missing from many...

I also sought to point out inconsistencies in posts/opinions...posts like yours I might add....which you did again in response to me...which I find...a bit baffling...

I said (literally the first sentence): "I think those who say "mass numbers predicted for X & Y developing nations, but numbers not there????", whilst in the same breath admitting that they understand the data collection in these places is probably well below par"

To which you went ahead and responded with...
[in your 4th paragraph] "I understand that the gathering of knowledge on the virus is an ongoing process you understand this ? The fact that so little is known about the virus is exactly why the narrative is doubtful."

[your ~7th paragraph] "Total death toll of about 7000 out of a population of 82M.
Don’t blame me when I begin to doubt the experts after they’d predicted hundreds of thousands of deaths and it’s not even 10K. "

So not only does it appear you question in your 4th para whether I realise the gathering of knowledge and data etc on the pandemic is mixed (despite it being the first of my dot-points...hence my bafflement and questioning how closely you read to responses/others' posts..), you then present the reported Iranian figures as evidence that "experts" got the predictions wrong.....seriously.....baffling....

Let's look at what I was saying (again)...
- People with relevant qualifications and experience predict a range of scenarios based on inaction...they say without intervention it "could be as bad as XYZ deaths..." (note the context on the totals...not their fault if you do the audio equivalent of taking a man-look)
- Nations take steps to avoid the worst case figures...including Iran (eventually). Voila, worst case figures so far avoided....hooray for...the physics of cause & effect?
- The data is incomplete/inconsistent across many nations for a host of reasons. The "experts" openly acknowledge this and try to build this into their modelling, which covers a range of scenarios...not their fault if you don't hear the qualifiers or the MSM doesn't focus on those bits...

I'll add, I've got a close friend in DoD intel, and another from Iran, who both assure me that the real death tolls is orders of magnitude higher because an enormous number of deaths have occurred in recent months, from an "unknown" (read: nobody checked) illness and these figures were so far above the norm the highest probability for the cause is COVID-19....same goes for many other places.

Hence, why your requests for support can fall on deaf ears and be puzzling to others. Your opinions are riddled with inconsistencies and calls to others to be consistent despite you yourself often not adhering to the same standard. Perhaps explains why some others on here get a bit irate with you.

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mowgli Wednesday, 20 May 2020 at 1:29pm

I think I'll highlight this bit because it really appears to be a key thing you're missing from your "but why are they so wrong" based arguments..

- Nations take steps to avoid the worst case figures...including Iran (eventually). Voila, worst case figures so far avoided....hooray for...the physics of cause & effect?
- the data is all over the the reported figures may be grossly under stating....soooooooo maybe the estimates weren't wrong, but the data collection is?

It's like someone saying "If we don't put all this effort into teaching people to swim, there'll be super high mass drowning rates" and then we do that....and then in 2020 someone says "look at these fuckwits from them 70s who predicted by 2020 we'd have over 2 million drowning deaths!!! Hasn't happened! Fucken experts don't know shit....add that to the tally I keep on my "experts dunno shit" notepad in my shed"..... I don't think I need to labour the point further for fear of insulting your intelligence....

So, why do I reiterate this particular point? Because you KEEP. OFFERING. OPINION. Whilst acknowledging that you personally DON'T. KNOW. SHIT. and that OTHERS. DONT. EITHER. and the SITUATION. IS. EVOLVING. and we all have INCOMPLETE. AND INCONSISTENT. WHY IS NOBODY AGREEING WITH ME/SAYING MY OPINIONS DON'T KNOW SHIT

oh my gosh....PLEASE STAHP.....if not for your blood pressure, do it for the kids or future generations or something.

I can't believe I sort to using all caps like a 55+ yr old ranting on the internet/in the letters section of the Sunshine Coast Daily...

Also, in my short time on this planet, I can't help but notice people tend to carry on when others get things wrong (especially "experts"), but it's all quiet on the western front the 90% of the time when things go as expected/forecast... Must be the human condition...

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sypkan Wednesday, 20 May 2020 at 1:44pm

I blame the models

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sypkan Wednesday, 20 May 2020 at 1:45pm

objectification is the devil's work

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Blowin Wednesday, 20 May 2020 at 2:52pm

Mowgli ....I know what you’re saying about the Stats being unreliable, but even allowing for discrepancies of “ many orders of magnitude “ isn’t enough. Unless you mean hundreds of thousands of deaths , which I’m assuming you aren’t. Even if Iran underreported a hundred thousand deaths then it’s still nowhere near the expected outcome.

As for Iran mitigating the situation....come on, they proactively encouraged the spread for so long that the virus must have been uncontrollable beyond that point.

Don’t you remember the Iranians were told to visit their prayer wall and pray for safety ? They did this by the tens of thousands. Actually going out of their way to lick the same part of wall as thousands of others. You could not have designed a more efficient way to spread the virus.

The predicted hundreds of thousands ( millions ! ) of deaths should have ensued , irrespective of whatever post-event antics the Iranian government tried to impose.

Look , I don’t understand why you feel compelled to defend these ridiculous predictions based on flawed modelling. As to me ignoring the “ 90 percent of correct predictions “ , exactly which predictions would they be ?

Basically every piece of officially released information has been wrong .

Not like the experts don’t still control the narrative....there is no alternative. My guesses will never jeopardise the credibility of those qualified enough to making the decisions , but surely I’m allowed to pose a few questions when they are repeatedly incorrect in their public statements ? I’m just trying to prompt discussion AFTER I’ve watched the official narrative fail to materialise.

You wonder why I get defensive when you went out of your way to portray people like myself who have an opinion as “ frustrated experts “. You even post a couple of articles expressly satirising my position.

Where’s the satire for the world reknown experts who keep getting it wrong ?

I notice you didn’t address the link which showed the head of WHO talking absolute shit. Why aren’t you taking the piss out of that ?

If you want to satirise anything, satirise this dribble

Best case scenario...15 million dead FFS.

“In that 'low-end' pandemic, the study estimates that more than 15million people would die within the first year of the outbreak, which started in China last December. “

And you think I’m not allowed to have an opinion after seeing garbage like this paraded around as science ? When they can just pump out anything with the caveat that it’s highly uncertain, why aren’t I allowed to have an opinion. They know fuck all , I know less what if I write something on the internet about it ?

And you know what ? I bet the expert epidemiologists we are discussing also have an opinion on geopolitics, investing , property , bushfires or whatever else I’m not allowed to express my perspective on because I’m not an expert .Big fucking deal. The world keeps turning.

Countless articles on here about board design and fin performance and I’m pretty sure that everyone contributing doesn’t have a PhD in hydrodynamics. What’s the difference ?

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shoredump Wednesday, 20 May 2020 at 2:40pm

Movie stars are just people, so are medical professionals. The jet you fly out on post covid is just a tin can put together by a bloke doing his best at work that day.

Experts are allowed to get it wrong, there’s no shame in that. I saw John John fall on wave at Pipeline once*

*just joking of course that never happened

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mowgli Wednesday, 20 May 2020 at 3:09pm

shoredump gets it.

I didn't say you can't have an opinion. I'm just pointing out how frequently you contradict yourself/perhaps don't hold yourself to the same standard you want others to adhere to. But when you do this, don't be surprised when others come after your opinions, or as you say "attack" your opinions.

I think you only got halfway to agreeing with me on the Iran thing. It's likely (not for certain) that the real numbers are higher because of, as you say, under-reporting. But as I said, Iran's actions did reduce the result. From what I am told by people with info from directly on the ground Iran did swing really hard the opposite way relative to their original approach, once the shit hit the fan. I don't accept that "it was too late" as you say, because every person who doesn't have it and stays home is another person who has just significantly reduced the probability that (a) they will contract it and (b) spread it. It's worth mentioning that the Iranian people acted largely ahead of any government directives*. My Iranian friend has multiple family members that are doctors back in Iran, and this is what he has told me.

I haven't looked, but have the numbers originally forecast been revised down? Let's not forget we knew very little about the virus. At that stage the models had typical virus spread to go on, broken info coming from China (and already whispers we weren't getting the full story), and the most recent and relatable example being SARS-COV-1...which had a mean death rate of 11% in the end. If you're a pandemic modeller, and Mr/Mrs Government comes to you in mid-January and says "Ok Dr Blowin, how bad could this be?" You're probably going to err on the side of caution and give a large number....better safe than sorry eh?

Though I'm with you on whether the head honchos at the WHO perhaps need to hand in their resignations. It begets questions concerning their governance systems when they simply parrot what China told them about the situation. Mind you, I'm sure a not unwholly reasonable defence might be "what other info are they supposed to go on?". However, it does appear something is amiss at the top of the WHO when they continue to take China's side, even when there's enough unverifiable evidence (because the CCP wants it that way) to suggest China covered it up, continues to do so, and its actions probably made the situation worse. I mean, that interview by the Hong Kong journo and her questions about Taiwan's expulsion from the WHO was extremely concerning to put it mildly.

Maybe I've seen too many movies, but I often the only explanation I can come up with for these sort of baffling ongoing head honcho head in the sand responses is the particular entity that stands to lose (whether it's the CCP, or Adani**, or Republicans) have something very compromising on them. How else to explain their behaviour in the face of very strong evidence contrary to their position?

*Same happened here funnily enough, public transit data shows a lot of aussies sent themelves into iso almost a fortnight ahead of ScoMo's requests (I was one of them).

**Am I the only one that remembers that a bunch of the strongest Adani advocating politicians (not to go too far off topic) went to an Adani-family wedding with Ms Rinehart waaaay back when the Adani family first started making moves in the Gallilee Basin? Don't tell me the probability is zero when George Christensen is spending 1/4 of the year up in the Phillipines and the AFP is getting aheads up from the local coppers saying "oi fellas, you may want to have a quiet word with him"...

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mowgli Wednesday, 20 May 2020 at 3:10pm

fuck me my posts are long.

I need to take a course in "how to rant on an internet forum, succinctly"

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Pops Wednesday, 20 May 2020 at 3:32pm

Nah, keep 'em long. They're good reads for the most part.

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Blowin Wednesday, 20 May 2020 at 3:53pm

Mowgli...your posts - the longer the better.

I’ve usually just smashed a high powered coffee when I’m posting rants like these. It’s like cheap gak. The words just keep coming.

BTW....I’m allowed to contradict. I’m not an expert !

Not sure if you are aware , but I was one of the first and hardest proponents of the impending doom scenario. I came home from Indo a month early and went into iso straight away. Even had to defend my decision to do so on here cause most people thought I was acting like an epidemic girly-man.

It’s the failure of the experts to account for pretty much everything which has since made me doubt their word.

Discovering that some of the talking heads are obviously captured by corruption / blackmail as youve just referred hasn’t increased my faith in them.

In saying that .....I’ve now got something to say on the interesting stuff thread.....

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Dale -Cooper Wednesday, 20 May 2020 at 3:59pm

Keep on trucking, Mowgli.

There's been more than a few that have already gone through the Blowie Do-si-do on here over the years.

Realise it's all about the dance! Doesn't really matter what 'track' is playing.