COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster

Craig's picture
Craig started the topic in Wednesday, 18 Mar 2020 at 7:44pm

I've created a spreadsheet forecast which I'll update as we go..

There's also a website with live running data..

tylerdurden's picture
tylerdurden's picture
tylerdurden Friday, 3 Apr 2020 at 12:53pm

I've got a couple of connections Craig, will add any info as I become aware of it.
Hopefully everyone finds the updates informative.
The projections are calculated every day by NSW Health.
The take into account new,active and resolved cases, as well as ICU/ventilation rates plus ICU duration of stay, at the moment that is about 10 days on average I think.
Very complicated.
Curve may take an upsurge April 4-18, which is the incubation time for secondary contacts from the Ruby Princess, hopefully not

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo Friday, 3 Apr 2020 at 2:18pm

Anyone catch the Corona Virus truth vid on utube by Mad Anti Vaxxer
Tom was taken down ....but back up atm..

sypkan's picture
sypkan's picture
sypkan Friday, 3 Apr 2020 at 4:10pm

"For sure Craig. Not having a go at you, just a comment in general. Not sure if the government is talking about such things for psychological reasons (ie: if people feel their measures at working they are more likely to comply) or for political capital."

government totally trying to capitalise on this. the salesman in scumo never sleeps..

if there is any flattening going on, it is due to the public wising up and acting well before the government gave any notice to do so

bloody reckless, totally shameless, dumb marketing, from a dumb government

the smart doctors are predicting a double peak as we hit our exponential curve (may) and then hit winter with one doc saying july august cound be particularly bad

that should also correlate well with the feed from scumo's marketing team taking the heat off ...I wonder if they'll claim that one...

indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming Friday, 3 Apr 2020 at 5:15pm


Thats not fair at all to both federal and state governments, they were warning and educating long ago about the virus and aspects like social distancing etc, but a large percentage of the population ignored these things, Bondi was the big example but the same was happening all around Australia.

Most people now are doing the right thing but people are still ignoring the government we can see it in coastal community's with people staying in their holiday houses and still out and about.

If this curve is flattening it's not because the public volunteered to do the things needed, it's because they were basically forced into it step by step by government and states..

IMHO both federal and state governments in general are doing a very god job, yeah 100% there is fuck ups, some big and stupid ones, and with hindsight they would do better, and there is things I'm pissed off about and dont agree with like ban on fishing in Victoria.

But compared to most of the world and developed countries Australia is doing very well, only really NZ that is doing much better, and i hate to say that because i cant stand their PM) but they only have a population of about Melbourne and dont have the complication of having 5 states and two territories and countless indians that think they are chiefs to deal with like we do.

And then you have success in some Asian countries, Singapore, South Korea, Hong kong and dare i say even China if you can beleive the stats, yes they made the mess, but there is now four countries with a high number of cases, and lets remember it started in China and had no warning like us.

I mean with hindsight it would have been amazing if we did quickly close our borders first thing but who really would have thought what is happening is happening and no country in the world did that. (thats i know of?)

Its early days but a lot of our signs are good especially in daily new cases and our ratio of deaths to cases which is again up there with some of the best in the world

tylerdurden's picture
tylerdurden's picture
tylerdurden Friday, 3 Apr 2020 at 6:43pm

Indo, you’re right.
Bear in mind I am no fan of Scomo nor BMurph due to past performances but you can‘t argue with the outcome so far.
Re Bondi, I don’t blame any of those punters either. It was nudging 40 degrees here in Sydney that day and people are people.
A lot of legislation is protecting people from their own human nature. Hard to know, maybe UV light and 40 degrees killed more virus than it spread??
Scomo made a couple of mistakes but has got away with it, history will probably look upon him kindly as it did with Kevin Rudd after the 2008 GFC.
Our trouble is the tail end of the process and when to let international tourists into the country without 14 days isolation etc.
Plus worldwide shortage of PPE’s in next few weeks when it hits 10 000 000 cases world wide

indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming Friday, 3 Apr 2020 at 7:55pm

All that said although i know all this has to be done i cant say im enjoying my taster of Communism/socialism.

I know if i was still young on the dole id be laughing having my dole cheque doubled, id probably be stoned or pissed right now..

But being a worker/business owner it's not much fun fun being told what you can do and cant do no fishing, no surfing im sure to come.

Who you can see and who you cant.

Go to the shop and half the shelves are empty.

Crazy to think there is people out there that want this kind of thing 24/7 365 days a year :(

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Saturday, 4 Apr 2020 at 7:09am

I don't think anyone wants it 24/7/365 Indo, so let that little fantasy go.

Otherwise, I agree with most of what you've written above.

Distracted's picture
Distracted's picture
Distracted Saturday, 4 Apr 2020 at 8:22am

Interesting correlation being looked at between the typhoid BCG vaccination snd lower death rates to Covid 19. In Australia the vaccine was given across population to mid 1980s. In the States and Italy widespread vaccination apparently did not occur.

indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming Saturday, 4 Apr 2020 at 9:05am

"I don't think anyone wants it 24/7/365 Indo, so let that little fantasy go.

Otherwise, I agree with most of what you've written above."

Surprisingly there is quite a few pro communist party pages on facebook, there is at least there Australian communist party facebook pages and, one even has 13K likes.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Saturday, 4 Apr 2020 at 9:25am

wow, 13 thousand likes.

c'mon mate.

You'd then need to show that those 13 thousand communists were in favour of the lockdowns. They might be more in opposition than you are.

sypkan's picture
sypkan's picture
sypkan Saturday, 4 Apr 2020 at 11:42am

I agree many state governments have done a good job indo, ...of late... they have acted decidely and appropriately (considering), and made some hard calls, ...just ahead of the curve.

they have done this because they basically broke ranks and went it alone, frustrated with the sluggishness and inaction from the federal government, they've jumped the gun ...and thank fuck for that!

I'd say the vast majority of the public have done the same, ..aside from the obvious fuckwits...

sensing the seriousness of the situation (and the uselessness of contemporary media), many people have done their own research, and have been well ahead of the government's announcements, already prepared, mentally and physically for upcoming changes. ...go joe public!

this could have been a total disaster, and still may well be one, after our starting blocks atrocities, especially when these fuck ups are combined with the 'aussie spirit'.

a spirit that makes us an unwieldy beast, but the public has generally been quite sensible and compliant. yeh there's been some fuckwit boomer bad actors, and no idea backpackers, but I'm generally impressed how well many aussies have adjusted behaviours

the last week scumo has appeared reasonable and ok, ...that's after a period of total idiot and reckless. I'll take reasonable and ok, but it'll take a hell of a lot of reasonable and ok to cancel the out the reckless fuckwit that got us in this largely avoidable mess

sypkan's picture
sypkan's picture
sypkan Saturday, 4 Apr 2020 at 12:01pm

...and speaking of no idea backpackers...

someone's gotta school up the euro hipster set currently making a mess of things in bali. I don't know how it's become this way, but it seems your worst bintang binging bogan has way more respect for that island than the supposedly sophisticated ones

they're ruining it, are rude, have little respect, and are wearing thin the delicate welcome for all bule in the years to come...

go home you morons

indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming Saturday, 4 Apr 2020 at 11:41am

"Adjusted" is the correct word, IMHO government has been quite clever in conditioning people to where we are at now.

If this had been sprung on us very fast, i think there could have been real risk of different back lash or social issues etc even now we have had all this crazy panic buying and a big demand increase for fire arms, imagine if people hadn't been slowly conditioned to where are now.

After the fires and this though, it's quite clear there is issues between how things work between government and state and where lines are drawn, especially where you have states with leaders from opposing parties to those in government power, it seems that political games/point scoring happens.

sypkan's picture
sypkan's picture
sypkan Saturday, 4 Apr 2020 at 11:58am

how's the farking cruise ships...

imagine being still on one of those floating lord of the flies hell camps, ...vibes at 40 fathoms by now... virus thick in the air....

those indian recycle yards won't know where to put them all

indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming Saturday, 4 Apr 2020 at 12:04pm

My parents had a cruise ship holiday locked in up the Mekong starting in China just before this started :D

They love their cruise ship holidays, but I've got a feeling they wont be doing another now.

Imagine being one of those cruise liner companies, even when this clears up that industry is never going to recover, its always going to have a stigma ad fear attached to it now.

Balance's picture
Balance's picture
Balance Sunday, 5 Apr 2020 at 8:27am

Deputy chief medical officer...maybe...I am pretty sure he is a character from Southpark

A psychotic scientist of some kind...removes the heads of chickens and sews them on to the bodies of pigs...maybe

I sure wouldn't like to wake up from surgery and see that face smiling down at me

truebluebasher's picture
truebluebasher's picture
truebluebasher Sunday, 5 Apr 2020 at 10:17am

Ok Balance... let's put yer Southpark theory to the test!

About that Award Winning Politicised Strong Public +Private Health Union...
How is that the Media aren't to fond of sabre rattling.

*This is not the Private Motel mass starvation / suffocation of detainees Health Plan.
see: (Meat Flavoured Chunky Custard incident)

Public vs Private (Better known as yet another...Govt Coronavirus Mop Up in isle 4)

28th March -Private say 100,000 out of work with Surgery/Outpatient bans...

Fed Health Minister is given permission to corner WA premier as a Hopeless Goose!

29th March ...1st WA Private Nurses refuse to get Corona Germs (Lack of gear)
Public Heath say Fed's Private Plan is ill thought out...(Private have poor facilities)

31st March- Fed Govt (transperth) Artania Corona patients to 4 Private Hospitals.
All of which freak out & demand Govt to spread Patients germs to other city zones.
By the end of the day the infected > re-transperth'ed to Joondalup Private Hospital.

1st April-Health Minister on TV heralds Citywide Corona transference a breakthru.

2nd April as Private Hospitals refuse more infected lot go to Novatel.

3rd April-1st Private Corona Patient dies (re: Balance above Vid #1 world success).

*So the Minister will repeat that to the Family of Private-Public experiment....Hmm!

*Will Oz Media trip over #1 Public-Private Mop Up! (Trick Question! Ha! Ha!)

*Will anyone care for Artania Fuck Up buried underneath Border Force body bags?

PS: (Yep! tbb agrees with Balance...100% a Southpark episode!)

indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming Sunday, 5 Apr 2020 at 6:12pm

Everything is still looking real positive our daily infection rates are still dropping, was only 90 yesterday, but last two Sundays have seen big jumps so interesting to see if that pattern continues.

They say there is about two weeks lag, so numbers are dropping because of international travel bans.

But surely these restriction will also help prevent new cases.

Recover rates are increasing too which is good.

And our death rate on a word scale compared to infections is a very good ratio.

On a world scale other countries have been flying past us at a crazy rate on overall infections, Norway over took us today, Russia is next in line.

Actually feeling a little proud of our effort now

Statler's picture
Statler's picture
Statler Sunday, 5 Apr 2020 at 6:29pm

No surfing trips — well, unless you're a pro

Travel within the region you are already in is not technically restricted as yet, but the Police Commissioner and the Premier have asked people to stay home and not take holidays.

And the Health Minister Roger Cook has also expressed concern about the dangers of people spreading COVID-19 if travelling between major towns in the same region.

People in the Goldfields have been urged to cancel any plans to travel from Kalgoorlie to Esperance for Easter, and Perth residents were told not to flock to Mandurah.
Daytrips or short drives outside of your region for leisure or recreation are also definitely off the cards.

The checkpoint script also states a surfer driving to a beach outside their region should be turned around, unless they are a pro-surfer in which case they may be exempt.

Who wants to sponsor me , I will sponsor you lets exchange a dollar and a sticker

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Sunday, 5 Apr 2020 at 6:49pm

This is bullshit.

People being told to not sunbake on a beach if they are on their own. People moved out of parks. Told to go for a quick walk around the block then back home....What is this shit ?

If you are practicing social distancing you should do whatever the fuck you want.

Police state rubbish.

alsurf's picture
alsurf's picture
alsurf Sunday, 5 Apr 2020 at 7:02pm

I agree totally blowin
its getting a bit out of hand ,
I'm closer to people at work each day in scomos deemed "essential work"

Statler's picture
Statler's picture
Statler Sunday, 5 Apr 2020 at 7:06pm

I will Try again removing anything that may give people conniptions
The entertainment on this forum is endless as one poster many years ago stated your carrying on lot a bunch of CWA Ladies at a jam making competition
Great article on The SMH on Saturday about how the habits/mindset of people after the great depression regarding debt/lifestyles will be revisited after the great reset that will occur after this. Get your own subscription.

Someone on the threads mentioned the skyscanner flights availability, which made me check Stayz over the Easter period in my local area 149 properties booked out over the Easter week.
Obviously the below has not got through to people from Major cities
"People should avoid non-essential travel within NSW and remain at their primary place of residence. Travel planned or booked for the Easter school holidays should be cancelled or postponed."
"People must stay at home unless they are going to work or school, shopping for food and essentials, getting medical care or supplies, and exercising. You may only leave home with a reasonable excuse – details can be found here. Penalties are in place for breaching these public health orders."
My Local area has been busier than usual (holiday numbers in the lineup) for the last 10 days Sure there is the recent people who have been offered external development opportunities from there current positions and the lost Families who are trying out the beach instead of a weekend of structured team sport for Jim & betty (they really did not look comfortable) The 18-20's group lost without a hangover or a pub/coffee shop to spend their time taking selfies who have decided to explore their world
Majority are not local, Lots of OS Travellers lots of QLD numberplates, Lots of expensive cars and Easter Holidays has not even hit.
Watch the next spike in Covid 19 after Easter in regional areas, the government has had plenty of time to plan for this it will be another failure to chalk up.

truebluebasher's picture
truebluebasher's picture
truebluebasher Sunday, 5 Apr 2020 at 9:08pm

Following post is dedicated to women doing it tough.

Word Health Crisis hides beneath Coronavirus.
Oz is the World capital for Domestic Abuse.

Corona Home Abuse rises (Children > Women)
(Men part included) tbb points out Men have suffered increased abuse also.)

30% rise in US Child Abuse (Florida)

Women's Abuse...
20% rise in US Women Abuse (21% Texas / 22% Seattle / 27% Portland)
20% > Northern Ireland
30% > Cyprus
36% > France
30-50% > UK
40% > NSW
40-50% > Rio
75% > Australia
The higher Oz abuse % resembles Post Destruction (Hurricanes / Earthquakes)

Soon Australian Children will be home schooled in worlds most abusive setting.
Home Schooling Registration requires Court Order Checks & Inspections & more!
All States are racing to hook up Social Credit School without screening of predators.
Please Stop this Madness & insist on basic security screening for Home kids safety.
Dead Set Oz! Wake Up! We are one step from a deadly Screening Fail Disaster.
Stay the Fuck in yer Rape Dungeons is not a Subject you moronic tech heads!

Most of the crew have noticed huge changes & Queues in Malls + Violence about.

(Pause!) This is awkward for tbb to explain this next change as it is unfamiliar.

Women's behaviour has changed notably...
I'm sure i'm not alone in saying women are eyeing men off in a more astute way!
Isolation has women on the back foot...crowds spelt freedom, now ever vigilant.
Queuing in an isolated Mall is not where any woman should be...& it can't last.

tbb believes women need to look men up & down to assess danger.
Also women need men as allies to survive in isolated dangerous world.
So Yes! Men are being looked at in ways women would normally never consider.

(Pause!) That sounds icky but tbb believes women are honing new survival skills.

Needing Men to go out > spend 1 hr in a Queue then refuel car at dodgy servo...
This world is no place for a Woman & they need runners of suitable grade.
tbb has noticed single mother's if you like...checking out providers. (Only Natural)

So, when women look you up & down & they will, they are not hitting on you!
Politely smile in a way to build their confidence, let's them know the're on cue!
Gotta admit, tbb thought he was some scruffy on trend no hoper. (Half right!)

With what we know Oz women are #1 targets so keep an eye out for our sisters.
In France the Chemist Shops have an abuse code word [ MASK 19 ]

PS: Elderly Women are even more fearful.
tbb's Mum won't let me in her house...covert parcel drops in blind spots. (Not many)
TISM...are Oz sons denied a hug from Mum...really! Advice Please.......

indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming Monday, 6 Apr 2020 at 12:01pm

Interesting we did get another spike on Sunday only up to 200 but previous days were 90 & 140 bt not as high as days before that.

Could be coincidence but three Sundays in a row has seen spikes.

Interesting to see the pattern for next few days

Balance's picture
Balance's picture
Balance Monday, 6 Apr 2020 at 12:09pm

Interesting perspective...scary, but interesting

simba's picture
simba's picture
simba Monday, 6 Apr 2020 at 1:21pm

Without a vaccine the only way to get immunity is to catch it,so all the social distancing is good but how long can the country do this ?Not sure if Sweden has the right idea but possibly they have,as the country will emerge in a way better position economy wise than most european countries.....So if the curve flattens out thats great but as soon as people start to go back to any sort of normal work routine in theory the spike will occur again......and economically the country will be facing a huge mountain of debt that could prove insurmountable......catch 22

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Monday, 6 Apr 2020 at 1:26pm

Yep this is now the tricky situation for the Government.

They've suppressed the curve and slowed transmissions and infections right down, but say we get to 10,000 cases, that's 0.04% of the population.

So we can't wait 12-18months for a vaccine and we're nowhere even near herd immunity. Will they then slowly open things up and test people, make sure they're not infected and if so lock down straight away.

There'd be some crazy number crunching and scenarios playing out in the background here.

charles-barkley's picture
charles-barkley's picture
charles-barkley Monday, 6 Apr 2020 at 2:27pm

Whats the maximum number of new cases per day that the health system can handle? If we get 2000 per day (way above current numbers) then after 3 years we don't even cover 10% of the population. Not sure there is a proper long term plan other than hoping for the vaccine.

Balance's picture
Balance's picture
Balance Tuesday, 7 Apr 2020 at 9:05am

I know I am cynical...but I can't help but question the sincerity of all these celebs filling social media with all these messages of hope, concerts, attempts at humour...under the guise of providing some sort of essential humanitarianism

Just has a desperate narcissistic "look at me look at me" attention seeking vibe to it, for mine

So they appear just like all my posts here, is what I'm trying to say

Balance's picture
Balance's picture
Balance Tuesday, 7 Apr 2020 at 10:27am

Anyone else been following this little story and Dr Trump advising people to try this anti malaria drug

Seriously man the guy is a fucking moron

Balance's picture
Balance's picture
Balance Tuesday, 7 Apr 2020 at 10:28am

Fake news

indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming Tuesday, 7 Apr 2020 at 4:25pm

Another drop in numbers for yesterday, down 55 new cases from Sunday.

Russia has now overtaken us in numbers and flying along, Norway and us keep swapping positions for 22nd spot. (we were way up around 15th at one stage so doing well)

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Wednesday, 8 Apr 2020 at 1:46pm

Here's our flattening of the curve, Infection Rates plotted since March 10th..

Pops's picture
Pops's picture
Pops Wednesday, 8 Apr 2020 at 1:48pm

That looks far too neat... Not nearly as much noise in the data as you'd expect.

indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming Wednesday, 8 Apr 2020 at 4:29pm

I like this one better active cases

indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming Wednesday, 8 Apr 2020 at 4:30pm

And daily new cases(only 93 new cases yesterday)

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Wednesday, 8 Apr 2020 at 4:35pm

Here's the RAW data Pops..

Not as pretty.. IR calculated by dividing the current day's cases by the day before.

Pops's picture
Pops's picture
Pops Wednesday, 8 Apr 2020 at 4:44pm

Much better :p
Models should be pretty, but recorded data ought to have a bit of noise!

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Wednesday, 8 Apr 2020 at 4:47pm

That was the raw data plotted :p

Pops's picture
Pops's picture
Pops Wednesday, 8 Apr 2020 at 4:55pm

There you go. Sample size must be large enough to make the noise less of an issue.

Balance's picture
Balance's picture
Balance Thursday, 9 Apr 2020 at 7:24am

Has there been a deliberate shift in the messaging...and we are now being prepared for a herd immunity approach

Seems likely as Mr Morrison has made it pretty clear his current actions can't go beyond 6 months...while the cure for our problems, the vaccine, is 18 months away, best case scenario

Saw an interesting but disheartening interview with a scientist from the csiro tonight, who said finding a vaccine is not guaranteed, and that usually it would take 10-15 years to find one...for a virus from a known source...and this is an unknown source

Feeling pretty down about all this despite the healthy data on Australia's lowering infection rates, and very low death rate

tylerdurden's picture
tylerdurden's picture
tylerdurden Wednesday, 8 Apr 2020 at 10:07pm

Everyone’s got an opinion but some people I’ve spoken to have said peak ICU ventilation rate could be October/November.
Reversal of social distancing is risky while there is one person corona positive with the other 90+% unaffected.
Delaying peak saves ventilators, prevents peak capacity and allows time for evidence to emerg.
Results of randomised controlled treatment trials plus a quantifiable measure of immunity will probably allow return to normal life before a vaccine becomes available.
It’s quite a fascinating real life experiment, nobody knows the answer

Balance's picture
Balance's picture
Balance Thursday, 9 Apr 2020 at 10:20am

I'm also a bit suss on these expert opinions we are constantly being told to listen to...when these experts are on the payroll. Feels like conditioning to me
Whenever the govt gets questioned on any decision, they always deflect and say...we have to listen to the experts!
These are the experts who said it was ok to go to the footy with 20000 others on the opening round of the NRL
It's ok for schools and child care centres to be open
To allow all those ruby princess passengers to disembark freely
Who day don't wear face masks or other ppe in public
Is it independent expert advice or do they tell us what they are told to tell us

Seems more like cash for comment to me

"Despite all my rage I am still just a rat in a cage" profound smashing pumpkins.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Thursday, 9 Apr 2020 at 10:31am

feels like they'll slowly take foot off the brake while maintaining social distancing.

Island Bay's picture
Island Bay's picture
Island Bay Thursday, 9 Apr 2020 at 10:41am

FR, could you please pass them our PM's phone nr?

shoredump's picture
shoredump's picture
shoredump Thursday, 9 Apr 2020 at 10:52am

RCJ didn’t want to climb up the cliff at giant Nazare, but they were the cards dealt to him

Balance's picture
Balance's picture
Balance Thursday, 9 Apr 2020 at 11:24am

How is he doing these days...I heard his brother piggy died recently?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 9 Apr 2020 at 12:51pm

TD, yep my modelling goes out to at worst 18th of October but likely further with recent funding and investment in more beds and ventilators.

tylerdurden's picture
tylerdurden's picture
tylerdurden Thursday, 9 Apr 2020 at 10:26pm

Remember the 10-14 day average ventilation time skews numbers way into the future.
At a 1-2% ventilation rate, even though there have been only 100 or so cases a day for last few days that is 1-2 people needing a ventilator in 2-3 weeks time, lasting 1-2 weeks thereafter...and that’s occurring every day at the moment.
It’s fascinating to see the strategy hereafter.
I think the public system will cope but the reversal of all the current measures is very risky until there are no new cases for maybe 4 weeks straight.
On a side note Craig, I wonder whether the North Steyne “locals” who drive there will heed the Swellnet advice and stay home. JP, PM, RG and the like. Ditto the drive in Queenscliff locals. Hopefully leave it alone for the few of us who actually walk there!

The real Donald Trump's picture
The real Donald Trump's picture
The real Donald... Friday, 10 Apr 2020 at 9:40pm

Get ready for compulsory vaccinations (you'll be marked with an invisible vax tatt) and cashless commerce, just for starters.

The real Donald.