COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster

Craig's picture
Craig started the topic in Wednesday, 18 Mar 2020 at 7:44pm

I've created a spreadsheet forecast which I'll update as we go..

There's also a website with live running data..

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Blowin Friday, 27 Mar 2020 at 5:59pm

Twitter quote ....

“Imagine making stopping boats the centerpiece of your entire political platform for 10 years, and then failing to stop the one boat that actually f@#king REALLY mattered…….”

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donweather Friday, 27 Mar 2020 at 6:00pm

LOL that's gold Blowin

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donweather Friday, 27 Mar 2020 at 6:02pm

Well fck me, what a brilliant plan. Let's put all new arrivals up in hotels for two weeks. Fcking brilliant, how about we also put the 3200 positive COVID cases also in hotels for three-four weeks (the ones who aren't requiring medical attention obviously) and then we CAN actually contain this shit!!!

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Balance Friday, 27 Mar 2020 at 6:11pm

USA has just overtaken Italy and china for the most recorded cases

Literally no country in the world I would want to be in less right now

Very low testing rates, so actual cases likely much higher
Poor health system...all reports I have seen show the hospitals are overrun and under resourced
Over three million people became unemployed yesterday...meaning they also likely just became uninsured as well
Govt not co ordinated to put it mildly. Not working with each other or health advisors. President wants back to work asap, many parts of the country have only just begun lock downs, others planning them

New Zealand would be pretty high on my list of countries I would like to be...but good luck. Kiaora.

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inzider Friday, 27 Mar 2020 at 7:00pm

Well at least if your an ozzie in NZ you have the same rights as a citizen so you can get welfare or access to the 650 a week the govt are giving workers stuck at home. I feel sorry for the hundreds of thousands of tax paying kiwis in oz now looking at unemployment and no access to any help from scomoron . Like I've said before ,oz govt looks after refugees better than hard working tax paying kiwis. When shit does hit the fan proper and you need some water and food sent over we will probably be there for our ANZAC brothers and sisters

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poo-man Friday, 27 Mar 2020 at 7:37pm

Yep Inzider is totally right. Jacinda has brought it up a few times now but nothing changes. It's just not fair but maybe kiwi government needs to respond .

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inzider Friday, 27 Mar 2020 at 7:59pm

Nah bro
We need to uphold the ANZAC spirit in good faith. We should never sink to the depths of scomoron and the likes of petter dutton. Some of my best mates are ridgy didge oz cobbers and I'll never turn my back on them, I've got their back.

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freeride76 Friday, 27 Mar 2020 at 8:23pm

you're totally right Inzider, I got mates who've lived here 30+ years with Aussie partners and kids and they still get treated like second class citizens.

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fuhrious Friday, 27 Mar 2020 at 8:27pm

Apologies it may have been said but re the Ruby Princess and unloading the people! The responsibility remains with with the NSW Minister for Health ! Minister Health Hazzard! Well done!

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truebluebasher Friday, 27 Mar 2020 at 11:32pm

W.A Premier puffed up all Howard Like...We decide!
German Ship 'Artania' (Tampa 2) Stand off Lasted all of 5hrs!
Dutto said, 'Step aside Loser'..
Now...they're Free to Fly this way'n'that...Covid infected are Staying where?
In the Police Academy? Where are the Aussies Held up! The Kiwis?
This merry'go'round ain't gonna end well! Feeling sick already!

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mikehunt207 Friday, 27 Mar 2020 at 11:50pm

@Inzider ,Spot on mate, Aus gov happy to put itinerant backpackers from everywhere on the dole due to being stuck here due to this virus fiasco with no future plan to fuck them off, 457 visa workers the same but not support Kiwis, SloMo has no fucking idea.

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truebluebasher Saturday, 28 Mar 2020 at 12:39am

Recall Supermarket were outted on pay rip offs + milk Govt 3 month free labour.
Easily sack all unpaid underpaid staff for incoming cheap labour.
Woolies 20,000 extra Jobs
Coles 5,000 (Shelfstacking) This is old news >Coles have front of store crews now!

Govt first promised Supermarkets cheap extended hours by backpackersstackerz

You may think tbb is having a lend...but this happened yesterday & today.
The Airline Hostesses stand out the front of Coles to give you a hard on...(It Works!)
The ground staff sanitise yer hands & Wipe clean yer undercarriage (Basket)
Ya gotta pack yer own Bags now...
4 Indian students take turns sneezing on yer Trolleys, Chix get creeped out! Why?
Baggage handlers dent yer no label mystery tins
backpackers bruise the fruit'n' see how it works...
This is the best link as it also touches on Coles creepy welcome crew.

Craig's picture
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Craig Saturday, 28 Mar 2020 at 1:18pm

// Update //

As days go by we start to get a clearer idea on ICU admissions per cases and also the response by the government regarding ICU beds.

Yesterday the Chief Medical Officer Brendan Murphy stated they could triple the ICU capacity across the country and with this we've changed the available beds from 2,400 to 4,400. That being the existing 2,000 with 20% (400) available for COVID-19, with an extra 4,000 if capacity tripled to 6,000.

ICU rates across NSW and South Australia now indicate that 1.3-1% of cases need ICU, and we've run with the 1.3% value in our model.

With these new adjustments we buy a touch more time and see the breaking point of the health system where all ICU beds become occupied back to April 23rd.

Also one word on the slight slowing of rates of infection nation wide, this is a positive step but we all need to continue to be strict in our social distancing, self isolation and hygiene.

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truebluebasher Sunday, 29 Mar 2020 at 8:09pm

ICU units leave patients mentally & physically retarded (Two thirds suffer)
Longer the treatment the greater the damage.
Rehab can take 6 months.
(Post-ICU Delirium , Reduced Heart Flow, 30% less Lung Capacity)

Sorry! Not the best news for yer Sunday...but best you know / plan for recovery.

Thanx for the Canine Ventilators, but won't that drive us Barking Mad.
What damage are we suffering from our CPAP machines... WTF.

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philosurphizing... Sunday, 29 Mar 2020 at 10:54am

There are 2 versions of the Joe Rogan interview with Micheal Osterholm


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Blowin Sunday, 29 Mar 2020 at 12:32pm

Do you even maths , bro ?

Scummo has said we should be stoked because the rate of new infections ( over a tiny sample size ) has dropped from 25 percent to 15 percent in a week.

Too bad a week ago the caseload was 300 people so 25 percent meant a 75 case increase , whilst a 15 percent increase on the 3500 caseload means a 525 person increase.

Now is not the time to take the foot off the accelerator, Scummo ya moron.

From SMH :

“Health Minister Greg Hunt said the announcements were “changes that would otherwise have taken 10 years have been done in 10 days”.

Mr Hunt also pointed to “positive early signs of flattening the curve” based on new data about the spread of the virus in Australia.

Mr Morrison said the increase in cases was down to 13-15 per cent a day down from 25-30 per cent a week ago.

He said the social distancing measures put in place by the government and the cooperation of the Australian people were having an impact“

truebluebasher's picture
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truebluebasher Sunday, 29 Mar 2020 at 8:12pm

Health News.
28th March 2020 "Australian hospitals to shut, 100,000 staff under threat."

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tylerdurden Sunday, 29 Mar 2020 at 9:48pm

Great insight TBB.
In Aust we have a large reserve of resources in private hospitals.
Nobody knows how this is going to pan out but they could be the resource that saves the country, mainly by taking non-corona patients when the public is near capacity or by the govt purchasing private beds (or entire wards) for corona patients.
So what's 3 extra days of elective surgery at the private hospitals if it helps keep them solvent and able to provide a service in 4-6 weeks time?
Ethical dilemmas like this are everywhere at the moment.

Craig's picture
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Craig Sunday, 29 Mar 2020 at 9:54pm

Infection rates have dropped and we've got more time up our sleeve with the breaking point put back to the 27th of April.

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tylerdurden Sunday, 29 Mar 2020 at 10:26pm

It's more complex than that Craig.
The peak of active cases is predicted for mid/late May, breaking point 1st week of June. Transmission with no known source has started.
For NSW, our "days past 100 cases" started a few days ago.
That's why the govt has increased social restrictions today even though the rate of increase of active cases has seemingly slowed

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truebluebasher Monday, 30 Mar 2020 at 3:34am

tylerdurden now a frontline Private vs Public Health war mid crisis.
PM shut down Private health isolating 100,000 nurses / staff
PM braces for 30% hit to health staff when school is out!
PM says 20,000 visa overstay nurses can step up

Private is asking to step up to Corona frontline or they'll perish
PM is under the pump from Germans & dumps Corona patients at Private suites.

Public Health says no way ...It's just plain stupid as Private aren't yet geared up.
No national deal has been signed for Private Corona Frontline.
Private Nurses threaten Industrial Action.

PM failed to turn boat away, so helps WA Premier with Private Health response.

Artania now has corona patients spread out over 4 WA Private Hospitals
ANF: "We don't care what deal PM & Premier made (won't be put in harms way!)

Wide spreading of Corona over city hospitals has PM's fingerprints all over it!
No Health bodies were informed just idiot leaders making rash decisions.
PM closed Private suites so they can't just ramp up from zero to hero at his request.

PM has stirred up a National Public / Private Health War amidst #1 Health Crisis!
Our PM is considered Non Essential as he has likely spread the virus thru Perth!
If only he had stayed at home!

PS: Add to this 7 mystery Planes jetting out of Melbourne 11:20 for Guangzhou
Another viral P&O batch from who knows where...Oz Borders are spiralling outta control.

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philosurphizing... Monday, 30 Mar 2020 at 8:59am

Insight into the race to develop a vaccine.
It's a razors edge we are walking.
Here is a part of the story that reverberated the most for me.

Most of this money will go towards trials and production, the costs of which are now frequently borne by drug companies. After the 80s, when a series of mergers left the pharma industry in the hands of a few behemoth companies, vaccines fell thoroughly under the sway of market forces, subject to the kind of logic that prompted Goldman Sachs, in a 2018 report, to wonder: “Is curing patients a sustainable business model?” (It isn’t, the analysts concluded.)

Craig's picture
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Craig Monday, 30 Mar 2020 at 9:33am

Yeah thanks again Tyler for the additional info and will continue to track and adjust as we go.

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Balance Monday, 30 Mar 2020 at 10:26am

Craig all your information, as has been mentioned, is awesome thanks

Are you able to get stats on numbers of non covid patients entering ou hospitals recently...would be interested to see what impact all the current lockdown measures are kids sport, less traffic on our roads, less boozy weekends at clubs...whether that has equalled less hospitalizations

Also regarding vaccines...if what many are saying is true...that this has been deliberately released on the world...(and I am not saying that isn't true) would be logical to think that they would be the ones to magically come up with the cure, slightly before anyone else did. I would imagine there to be some dollars to be made in that

Will be interesting to watch that space...sure hope it is soon.

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tylerdurden Monday, 30 Mar 2020 at 11:24am

Just to clarify Craig, those estimates were for NSW only.
I have no idea about the rest of the country, each state will almost certainly have a different break point estimate.
There also may be a spike in positive cases timed to key events.
The Ruby Princess docked 19th March, expect surge approx 4-10th April.
Festival goer positive at Golden Plains festival 15th March, possible surge related to that event this week 30th March-5th April.
May or may not occur, may be blended in to national increase.
A delayed peak may prevent overwhelming of resources but also may allow for further accumulation of ICU/PPE and results of clinical trials to tailor treatment

Craig's picture
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Craig Monday, 30 Mar 2020 at 12:35pm

Lots of data here Balance from NSW Health but not on other admissions, just COVId-19.

Just been told lack of positive tests on weekend might be from people not going to testing clinics as were way emptier than has been. Or is that just because there are less people being infected and showing symptoms. Will see later today/early tomorrow with the updated numbers..

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Balance Tuesday, 31 Mar 2020 at 8:54am

This thing got really REAL for me in the last 24 hours...there is a big difference between observing a tragedy from a distance, and being confronted with it face to face

Like most anyone else, a few weeks ago I sent a message to anyone I knew that was vulnerable, and offered to help if I their shopping for them etc

Yesterday the father of a mate messaged me...asking if I could pick up a few things for him. Good old fella, mid to late seventies...but has had three heart operations or so in the last five years, and some serious lung issues from a life of smoking various substances

He got remarried very late, and has two daughters in their mid twenties...they both came home from uni in Sydney the day before yesterday

One of them developed flu like symptoms yesterday

Fuck. Won't forget the look of fear in old mates eyes yesterday, for a long long time...the look that said this might be a death sentence

Young girl can stay with me for the time being, and get tested...but fuck me, it could be too little too late. This is real

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udo Tuesday, 31 Mar 2020 at 10:26am

Baliwaves insta
Bali lockdown Euro style FFS !

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Pops Tuesday, 31 Mar 2020 at 11:03am

Interesting that NSW is reporting a decrease in testing numbers.
Which way does the causal arrow go?
Less new cases ---> less tests required? Or,
Less tests performed ---> less new cases identified?

I suspect the latter.

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mowgli Tuesday, 31 Mar 2020 at 1:40pm

Can't escape the fact the previous and new confirmed case results still heavily biased by testing criteria...

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Pops Tuesday, 31 Mar 2020 at 2:03pm

I suspect that no. deaths will be a more reliable way of tracking the spread trend if/when numbers really start ramping up.

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truebluebasher Wednesday, 1 Apr 2020 at 12:06pm

The following is personal Health procedure as experienced by tbb.
tbb is sharing 'hidden' Health procedure to inform Crew / families.

*GP Appointments are now mostly by phone...booked via auto queue.
You must stay in (durr!) and wait (Approx 30mins for your GP house phone-call).
GP phone call can be as long as usual GP consult or...(re: Follow up face to face!)
Doctor can then arrange for a face to face follow up appointment as with myself.
Eg: Day 1 phone am > GP phones am > Book next am: GP (Face to Face).

*Some Health Clinics still offer Pathology...
A Closed GP Pathology recommended Outpost (pop up) Labs.
tbb has noticed GP pathology that is distant from treatment rooms remain Open.
(Lab 101) Possibly viral cross contamination (Pathology < > Treatment Rooms)

*Note: GP Clinics aren't keen on promoting services so most think they're closed.
Don't be afraid to ask! You'll find most services are available via GP referral.

*Hospital Outpatient referrals are delaying some 1st appointments by extra forms.

*Regular Outpatients are being asked (prompted) for scaled down or end of care.
Don't feel pressured as many will relapse as isolation prevents healing options.

*Lifeline (Slight delay -Minute or Two)
Very kind listeners and take notes to personalise outcomes while empowering you!
tbb highly recommends & salutes #1 swellnet for Lifeline support. Thank You!

PS: Stir crazy with cabin fever...don't hesitate to seek assist via GP or Lifeline.

Craig's picture
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Craig Wednesday, 1 Apr 2020 at 3:59pm

With infection rates decreasing and trending lower we've seen the ICU breaking point (health system saturation) pushed out to early May. On top of this announcements by the government in opening up beds in Private Hospitals and the Victorian Government investing in an additional 4,000 ICU beds, this now makes the forecast "breaking point" almost redundant and out to at least the 17th of May, which is a great thing.

We'll have plenty of capacity under current strategies. I'll continue to track the data and provide useful analysis on how Australia is tracking through this pandemic.

Oh and here's a graph of the dropping infection rates..

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Solitude Wednesday, 1 Apr 2020 at 6:14pm

Can we really be advertising a drop of a couple of days? I’m a bit over hearing media reporting that our curve is bending. Good stuff, but seriously I don’t think joe blow needs to feel like we’re out of the woods yet.

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Craig Wednesday, 1 Apr 2020 at 6:32pm

I feel similar, don't want too much good news as we can't take the foot off, but I'm just keeping the data updated..

Stay vigilant.

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Solitude Wednesday, 1 Apr 2020 at 6:38pm

For sure Craig. Not having a go at you, just a comment in general. Not sure if the government is talking about such things for psychological reasons (ie: if people feel their measures at working they are more likely to comply) or for political capital.
Thanks for the information.

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billythekid Wednesday, 1 Apr 2020 at 7:10pm

Just hurry up and die already

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Sheepdog Wednesday, 1 Apr 2020 at 7:20pm

Ummmmm re open the politics forum.... I hardly come here anymore since it's turned "like totally chill dude"

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indo-dreaming Wednesday, 1 Apr 2020 at 7:41pm

@Sheepdog The politics thread might have been closed, but good or bad the politics talk hasn't stopped here, the no politics thing lasted about 2 weeks if that.

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poo-man Wednesday, 1 Apr 2020 at 9:11pm

So it does seem if Australia is trending down. NZ is also heading down and we've now got over 700 cases with only 1 death and that was a 73 year old with multiple other issues. As each day goes by our sample size is getting bigger and yet the death rate isn't moving. And only 2 in ICU. Didn't Italy have a death rate north of 10% at that stage? So it surely isn't just the age of the population and density. Any more word on whether the strains down here aren't as potent? The government is doing it's best to keep talking up the crisis but the numbers aren't stacking up

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Westofthelake Wednesday, 1 Apr 2020 at 9:16pm

I had to take my son to the chemist tonight to get some ear drops for an infection. Curious as to where I might find any hand-sanitizer I was directed to the front to look for a big white box.
So on the way out I found the box with clear 250ml bottles.


Yea, nah. I'll stick with soap and water at home.

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GuySmiley Wednesday, 1 Apr 2020 at 10:59pm

Craig, that latest graph you posted looks like my weight loss chart hahaha, about one kg for the month wtf

g'day sheepdog, happy to join with you in a new politics forum, wanna start with Slo-mo - Mr too little too late

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truebluebasher Thursday, 2 Apr 2020 at 12:39am

WHO : Get that Mask off yer look stupid!
If yer not sick don't wear a Mask!
If you are with or caring for an infected patient then yes, wear a mask!
If you have the virus then Yes...wear the mask.

In fact an ill fitting mask can increase your chances of getting the virus.
Masks are a priority item ...not for yuppie street fashion.

Rip that mask off yer face, put it back in the pack & return it to the store...NOW!
Then stay the fuck at home you old farts...well that's what i'm hearin'

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simba Thursday, 2 Apr 2020 at 7:01am

Well this is taking it to extremes the vid and see what the cop does...

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udo Thursday, 2 Apr 2020 at 7:31am

Greyhound / Finally the last bus into Byron..

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tylerdurden Thursday, 2 Apr 2020 at 10:37pm

Unless something miraculous happens the next 3 weeks looks absolutely awful for Portugal.
Hopefully our flattening of the curve only encourages everyone to try harder.
Peak ICU occupancy now predicted by some to be October. Good in some ways, prolonging the agony on others

indo-dreaming's picture
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indo-dreaming Thursday, 2 Apr 2020 at 11:19pm

Wonder what the truth on North Korea is, totally free?

Apparently if it gets hit its vulnerable though as has a veery weak medical system.

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seaslug Friday, 3 Apr 2020 at 1:21am

Very good question ID, you are correct about the heath system

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Pops Friday, 3 Apr 2020 at 9:43am

ID, not idea to the truth of this, but I read a couple of weeks ago that their infection count kept jumping between 1 and 0, because as soon as someone was diagnosed they shot them.

Craig's picture
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Craig Friday, 3 Apr 2020 at 11:11am

Yep TD, my model not including Private Hospitals is now out to June 8th (be further including these PH beds). IR rates continue to fall.