COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster

Craig's picture
Craig started the topic in Wednesday, 18 Mar 2020 at 7:44pm

I've created a spreadsheet forecast which I'll update as we go..

There's also a website with live running data.. https://sites.google.com/view/stayhomeaustralia

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin commented Sunday, 22 Mar 2020 at 6:07pm

Chin up , mate.

We are still kicking and breathing for now. It’s one thing to think long and hard about a situation and another to needlessly stress about it.

Chill. Go watch the sunset.

Life is still good !

Never forget .... https://youtu.be/SJUhlRoBL8M

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 commented Sunday, 22 Mar 2020 at 6:03pm

I've been out and about at odds hours, steering clear of humanity.
got a fridge full of fresh fish after some red hot sessions and my main income stream outside of writing will be designated an essential service.
very lucky.

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin commented Sunday, 22 Mar 2020 at 6:07pm

Tailor ?

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 commented Sunday, 22 Mar 2020 at 6:18pm

yeah, got shiteloads of trevs too but let them go.

had a pelagic hookup, I think a mackerel, bitten off at the swivel.

tailor smashing poppers, lots of aerial antics.

meanwhile local cafes still full of baby boomers drinking coffee.

weird times.

sypkan's picture
sypkan's picture
sypkan commented Sunday, 22 Mar 2020 at 7:17pm

re. money. Im a cashman, every time, every opportunity, avoid the card like the plague (ironically) literally never used tap and go in my life

...until last week, ....haven't stopped using it since, much cleaner, much less interaction in your interaction, no dirty money...

pulled some cash out, then realised having it in the bank has its merits too. doing all their transactions online, and getting stuff dropped outside apartments helped wuhan get through this thing, and is probably now helping italy, along with various other electronic intrusions

I think we are all going to have to accept more e-intrusions into our lives into the future

I never thought I would ever say that

a little contraband cash is always good

I focus's picture
I focus's picture
I focus commented Sunday, 22 Mar 2020 at 7:12pm

"meanwhile local cafes still full of baby boomers drinking coffee.

weird times."

Wow backed right off here.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 commented Sunday, 22 Mar 2020 at 7:39pm

wheres that I Focus?

I focus's picture
I focus's picture
I focus commented Sunday, 22 Mar 2020 at 8:44pm

Deep southern reaches of.......................Mandurah

I am surrounded by 70 year old plus neighbor's many with underlying issues and many saying this could be it my heart goes out to them.

On a more negative note worse than life and death swell has been totally fu(ked lately and not looking forward to school lockdowns, all of the young rippers out paddle me.

sypkan's picture
sypkan's picture
sypkan commented Sunday, 22 Mar 2020 at 9:46pm

best exponential growth/pandemics for dummies vid i've seen...

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=2660801087350872&id=17391561...

Westofthelake's picture
Westofthelake's picture
Westofthelake commented Sunday, 22 Mar 2020 at 10:03pm

Good one Syppo.

Fascinating to realise that out of 60 days it takes 54 days to get to 1% and within the next 7 days it goes to 100%. Now that's an exponential growth curve!

And the crowd roars, "Flatten the curve!"

sypkan's picture
sypkan's picture
sypkan commented Sunday, 22 Mar 2020 at 10:31pm

...we know how..

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/21/the-case-for-shutt...

just no political will, might, maybe, leadership, anything...

it's like watching a slow motion train wreck...

tylerdurden's picture
tylerdurden's picture
tylerdurden commented Sunday, 22 Mar 2020 at 10:35pm

Time will tell.
Remember our current number of positive cases is not grouped into one physical location.
SA, Tas, ACT, WA and NT are now effectively fully isolated from each other and the eastern seaboard.
I expect they will rise exponentially then plateau soon, say in the next 3 weeks.
NSW, Qld and Vic will act like their own entities seperate to each other as well.
It will be chaotic but I am very confident we will not see scenes like China or Italy.
Death rate around the world at the moment is approx 12% of closed cases and approx 5% of active cases are serious. Gives you an idea that your chances of surviving it are somewhere between 88-95%.
Just gotta hope you can keep paying the bills in the meantime, that’s the real worry

truebluebasher's picture
truebluebasher's picture
truebluebasher commented Monday, 23 Mar 2020 at 12:43am

Oz Health Report Card (May come as a shock to many, as it did to me!)

tbb earlier reported that a Chlorinated Salt pool would kill the virus...(Yeah, Right!)

Qld Govt : "The Chlorine within public swimming pools will help to kill the Virus!"

Forward: Oz States ramped up Emergency Surgery to 30% to clear for Coronavirus.
https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/queensland/elective-surgery-he...

Coronavirus strips back Oz Health to the bare bones...
Re: tbb recently reported being the only Outpatient at Hospital...(Read On!)
tbb basically saw the end of a massive concerted effort to clear the decks.
Doctors & Nurses were simply buying some well earned time before the shit storm.

Now 'Emergency' only represents (6% of Total Oz Patients @ March 2020 )

Emergency Surgery Only (This is the order of the day until the back of the virus!)

Elective Surgery (Category 2 & 3) Postponement (500,000) Oz Wide

Outpatient Cancellations Gold Coast Hospital Only = 4,000 / week

Pathology (Closed at GP's & Hospital > Emergency Appointments)

tbb: A Vaccine roll out goes against Oz wide Health Plan in place..(Impossible!)
Vaccine would need to be delayed several months in fear of reinfection.

X- Rays (Emergency Only)...reminder, this is strictly for 6% of patients

Dental = Postponed (Emergency Dental Only)

School Dental Vans / Clinics cancelled (Emergency Only)

Eating Disorder Clinics Closed. (Emergency Waiting Room ?)

Health Staff: Expected Loss & Back Up
Private School Parents - 80% ? (Perhaps a survey of part volunteers in health!)
School Parents > (Health Workers) 30% (PM won't mention the VISA backup!)
Overstay VISA Nurses ( Plan B > 20,000 staff ready on lower pay!)

https://www.qld.gov.au/health/conditions/health-alerts/coronavirus-covid...

views from the cockpit's picture
views from the cockpit's picture
views from the ... commented Monday, 23 Mar 2020 at 12:59pm

Jacinda Ahern-
"Tens of Thousands will die".
Such irresponsible comments will only reinforce panic and fear.
Must be taking a leaf from the Morrison, Frydenberg and McLachlan speech handbooks.
Only have to look at them to see they are intellectually bereft.
Makes me sick!!!

AndyM's picture
AndyM's picture
AndyM commented Monday, 23 Mar 2020 at 1:09pm

Troll.

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin commented Monday, 23 Mar 2020 at 1:13pm

tylerdurden's picture
tylerdurden's picture
tylerdurden commented Monday, 23 Mar 2020 at 1:20pm

She said it Andy but context was without lockdown 10’s of thousands COULD die.
She’s technically correct but unnecessary to say it.
6000 people die per year in Australia due to alcohol.
This Coronavirus pandemic may surpass that here in Oz but unfortunately 6000 more will die from alcohol next year and the year after that etc

sypkan's picture
sypkan's picture
sypkan commented Monday, 23 Mar 2020 at 1:29pm

"6000 people die per year in Australia due to alcohol."

dumb argument

it's a managed tragedy, where people experience an 'early death' due to the possible effects of alcohol.... possibly... maybe...

there's not much unknown about many people currently dying from the pandemic, dying despite the best medical help in the world....

the unknown, why this particular virus is having such an impact

the known, our leaders are well below average

AndyM's picture
AndyM's picture
AndyM commented Monday, 23 Mar 2020 at 1:32pm

Shit argument Tyler.

I don’t think it’s unreasonable for a head of state to re-iterate the potential seriousness of the situation.

Why wouldn’t you say it?

I realize this country is a disciple of U.S.- style bullshit positivity and juvenile euphemisms but let’s treat other like adults.

tylerdurden's picture
tylerdurden's picture
tylerdurden commented Monday, 23 Mar 2020 at 2:59pm

Alcohol is an ever present unseen killer Andy, mainly affecting those who drink but frequently not.
It will kill more under 50’s this year than Coronavirus by a long, long way.
Risk mitigation has brought down the mortality rate of alcohol per capita, way down. Risk mitigation will reduce the mortality of corona as well.
As of yesterday approx 1 in 100 people who were tested (ie fulfilled the criteria) were positive.
It’s likely 1000’s of people in this country will die but very unlikely you, I or anyone reading this website will be one of them. May happen, who knows

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather commented Monday, 23 Mar 2020 at 3:02pm

Sorry this was in response to the FB video link provided above.

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=2660801087350872&id=17391561...

This is brilliantly put and hopefully will show the masses why social distancing is the only answer. Although he keeps talking about "closed schools" and yet Australia keeps telling Australian's our schools are safe to send our children too each day.

Pull your head in Aussie Government and fcking close schools NOW!!!!

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin commented Monday, 23 Mar 2020 at 3:14pm

Dont you love people making firm announcements regarding the volumes and effects of an unprecedented virus which has only just commenced its exponential growth climb ?

Westofthelake's picture
Westofthelake's picture
Westofthelake commented Monday, 23 Mar 2020 at 3:15pm

tylerdurden's picture
tylerdurden's picture
tylerdurden commented Monday, 23 Mar 2020 at 3:18pm

Don, I agree.
Despite various health officials saying they don’t know what role children have in the spread of the virus, I personally think it is almost certain that children can pass it on to adults. May well be that the majority of spread is via child to parent who then transfers it around to other adults.
If true it’s not easy to solve apart from simultaneous school closure and full in home lockdown

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin commented Monday, 23 Mar 2020 at 3:21pm

Closing schools would be impossible and disproportionate !

Just like closing the international border was impossible and disproportionate.

tylerdurden's picture
tylerdurden's picture
tylerdurden commented Monday, 23 Mar 2020 at 3:38pm

And I agree with that Blowin.
It will be bad but not catastrophically bad with the current mitigation strategy ie slightly less than the number of deaths per year compared to alcohol
However, the mitigation strategies to keep the number of deaths down will have a massive economic impact and take a long time to recover, it’s all a balance

uncle_leroy's picture
uncle_leroy's picture
uncle_leroy commented Monday, 23 Mar 2020 at 3:41pm

Open the gates and they will come -
The MSC Magnifica is carrying 1700 passengers, including 250 with respiratory illnesses, is due to arrive in Fremantle.
https://www.perthnow.com.au/news/coronavirus/coronavirus-crisis-sick-pas...

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin commented Monday, 23 Mar 2020 at 3:59pm

I was wrong about Jacinta Ahern.....showing her class.

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno commented Monday, 23 Mar 2020 at 4:24pm

Hat tip to Labor premiers McGowan and Andrews too.

tylerdurden's picture
tylerdurden's picture
tylerdurden commented Monday, 23 Mar 2020 at 4:29pm

All the pollies want is to keep they peak surge below the available resources, this will have the least short term impact on the economy.
They could have shut everything 2-3 weeks ago, nipped it in the bud and ruined the economy. They were well aware of that option and were directly told by 4000+ doctors to do that. They decided not to on balance of risks: lives vs the economy. They know what they’re doing, not making it up on the run like it seems.
Jacinda has done the right thing by locking NZ down early but she’s prone to sensationalism.
There is no way 10000+ people would have died in NZ, that’s a beat up

AndyM's picture
AndyM's picture
AndyM commented Monday, 23 Mar 2020 at 4:41pm

"There is no way 10000+ people would have died in NZ, that’s a beat up"

It's ridiculous that you can have any firm assertions about figures like that.

tylerdurden's picture
tylerdurden's picture
tylerdurden commented Monday, 23 Mar 2020 at 5:25pm

Technically you are right Andy, without any intervention 10000+ people may have died, just like Jacinta said. But with a modicum of intervention that number would have been way, way lower. So yes, she's technically right but unfortunately it's a sensationalist comment
Her exact comment:

"If community transmission takes off in New Zealand the number of cases will double every five days," she said.

"If that happens unchecked, our health system will be inundated, and tens of thousands of New Zealanders will die."

AndyM's picture
AndyM's picture
AndyM commented Monday, 23 Mar 2020 at 6:06pm

Tyler I think it's a fair statement to ram home the importance of taking this seriously.

Which a lot of people obviously aren't.

tylerdurden's picture
tylerdurden's picture
tylerdurden commented Monday, 23 Mar 2020 at 7:02pm

Very true Andy.
Re Blowin's article, great info.
You may have notice it said that some countries started restrictive lockdown measures before 1000 cases, some others after.
Consider each state of Oz akin to a country in Europe.
Each state has started lockdown measures well under a thousand cases.
NSW really started today with about 700.
The long term economic impact of early mass closures is hard to measure and may in itself cost lives.
There is no convenient solution.
I don't like Scott Morrison nor Brendan Murphy.
The former was seemingly devoid of compassion as both Immgration and Social Services Minister. The latter did not win friends when he was at the Austin (hated by some ED guys) and made some very disparaging comments about anaesthetists, the very group that are going to bail this country out of a massive problem if the SHTF in a big way.
It's very complicated, there is no easy answer, all options have major negatives.
But despite my distaste for Morrison and Murphy, I think the path they've chosen is not the worst. Time will tell

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Monday, 23 Mar 2020 at 9:06pm

Just an update on Australia's trajectory in flattening the COVID-19 infection curve and the tightening restrictions.

We're still on the same trajectory with cases rising at 1.23x the day before, which means we'll be reaching peak ICU capacity by April 8th (no change).

This is why everything is being shut down to drop this curve and to not overwhelm the health system.

I've had some great friends help setup this website which will provide running updates on how Australia is tracking at #flatteningthecurve

https://sites.google.com/view/corona-daily-au/

Please share around and stay isolated and adhere to social distancing guidelines.

Also look after and check on in everyone in this extraordinary time.

truebluebasher's picture
truebluebasher's picture
truebluebasher commented Tuesday, 24 Mar 2020 at 12:09am

Crew Salute Craig & Sara for outstanding work...please thank the team also.
Exactly what we needed to come to terms with...explains the here & now!

tbb just wants to add that craig was already front line with the Lifeline Gig.
Double civic duty earns a Double Salute & Top Oz nomination from the crew.
swellnet #1

I focus's picture
I focus's picture
I focus commented Monday, 23 Mar 2020 at 9:47pm

Excellent Craig (again....still) clever way to frame the urgency of action.

Edit sorry Sara you too.

flow's picture
flow's picture
flow commented Monday, 23 Mar 2020 at 9:54pm

So what's the story with surfing in Sydney? Can we surf if it's quiet or are all beaches closed?

Fliplid's picture
Fliplid's picture
Fliplid commented Monday, 23 Mar 2020 at 10:17pm

.

etarip's picture
etarip's picture
etarip commented Monday, 23 Mar 2020 at 10:52pm

Shut the schools.

Our 14yo neighbour has just found out Tonight that she needs to go for a covid19 test, due to a positive case confirmed at her school. We didn’t see her over the weekend, but did see her dad who stopped over to drop some stuff off at our place. Now I’m off work til the results come back, my wife has a history of chronic illnesses / compromised immunity, we have young kids and my mother is not in good health.
How many other families are in the same boat from one infected kid at a school for 5 days last week?
Someone tell me that the impact on the economy would be too great if we’d taken 2-3 weeks break from school last week. FFS.

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno commented Monday, 23 Mar 2020 at 11:17pm

Thankyou Craig & co for the charts. It's getting toward the out of control stage and we are going to have to respond hard - and actually start testing and tracing +ve people coming in and all their contacts and quarantining them, as South Korea did. Not the Ruby Princess approach at all.

Blowin's Medium article above is about the best I've read, and the only approach that has been successfully proven to get infections under control and save the health system, as South Korea has done. China seems to have used it well, too, in getting official Hubei new infection numbers down - though I reckon their official numbers for total infections might be a great understatement.

In addition, here's one part of the UK response that will be fascinating:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/mar/17/uk-manufacturers-regear...

etarip, hope your family & self remain well, as well as your neighbour and the students at their school.

etarip's picture
etarip's picture
etarip commented Tuesday, 24 Mar 2020 at 5:41am

Thanks VJ. I reckon it’s going to be fine - chances are low, consequences are high.

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin commented Tuesday, 24 Mar 2020 at 5:59am

That’s the thing , Etarip , most people will be perfectly fine .

But those that aren’t will be not very fine at all.

Isn’t it strange how with the way the virus mostly targets aged people that many young don’t give a fuck ?

If it was a Muslim feeling paranoid about racism on a train it’d be a hashtag sympathy campaign #illridewithyou . And if it was a girl getting unwanted advances it’s full society #metoo.

Even Chinese getting ( supposedly ) vilified due to the origins of the virus was worthy of a social media solidarity movement.

But asking crew to avoid spreading the virus so that a few of our elders may live ?........Get fucked ! Too much to ask.

Australia needs to value its elders. Put a First Nations septuagenarian on TV and they’re assumed to be a “respected elder “ , put a septuagenarian White Australian on TV and they’re assumed to be a greedy old pokie -stabber , single handedly responsible for the price of housing and deserving of open ridicule. ( OK Boomer....WTF ?)

philosurphizingkerching's picture
philosurphizingkerching's picture
philosurphizing... commented Tuesday, 24 Mar 2020 at 7:03am

Here is a really excellent and easy to follow presentation, especially the graphics.
How the virus got out.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/22/world/coronavirus-spread....

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Tuesday, 24 Mar 2020 at 7:44am

Great article Philo, thanks for sharing. Will get onto that Medium article

Fliplid's picture
Fliplid's picture
Fliplid commented Tuesday, 24 Mar 2020 at 8:07am

The animated chart towards the bottom of the BBC article shows the daily numbers of reported cases worldwide. US goes balistic from mid March. No doubt from better testing but registered cases are almost doubling each day.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51048366

views from the cockpit's picture
views from the cockpit's picture
views from the ... commented Tuesday, 24 Mar 2020 at 8:55am

Crack me up Westy!

It never ceases to amaze me that people cant accept their mortality.
Life is a fluke, a stroke (or 2;-) of luck.
It's not a gift, it's not a right,
Some have more luck than others but sooner or later luck runs out.

sypkan's picture
sypkan's picture
sypkan commented Tuesday, 24 Mar 2020 at 10:02am

"...Isn’t it strange how with the way the virus mostly targets aged people that many young don’t give a fuck ?

If it was a Muslim feeling paranoid about racism on a train it’d be a hashtag sympathy campaign #illridewithyou . And if it was a girl getting unwanted advances it’s full society #metoo."

"... But asking crew to avoid spreading the virus so that a few of our elders may live ?........Get fucked ! Too much to ask."

it's bizarre hey, bizarre to the exteme...

morally reprehensible to consider where and how this virus might have developed - normal stuff enquiring minds do....

but totally cool to not think about your fellow australians, the not so young, sick and old - once normal behaviour that protected all communities...

people even having corona parties ffs.

brainwashing is a powerful tool ...just look at dumb cunt...

thank you contemporary uni system, you've created the craziest, most non sensical, self sabotaging, clusterfuck ever... nice work...

zenagain's picture
zenagain's picture
zenagain commented Tuesday, 24 Mar 2020 at 9:54am

Great info-graphics Philo.

Very informative.

I'd be very skeptical just how 'contained' the virus is in China though.

1173