COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster

Craig's picture
Craig started the topic in Wednesday, 18 Mar 2020 at 7:44pm

I've created a spreadsheet forecast which I'll update as we go..

There's also a website with live running data.. https://sites.google.com/view/stayhomeaustralia

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 commented Friday, 20 Mar 2020 at 5:35pm

you can fiddle the numbers but it's hard to hide dead bodies, even in a third world country.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 commented Friday, 20 Mar 2020 at 5:40pm

Random comment I found on the internet.
Not my thoughts but I wonder how widespread they are and how quickly they might take hold if people are forced into severe hardship.

"The average age among Italians who have died from the novel coronavirus is 79.5. It is not a matter of weighing lives against money and convenience. Economic catastrophe has a human cost. It takes years off of lives. Twelve to eighteen months of forced ghettoization is too much to ask. We are being asked to potentially enter another great depression because boomers are unwilling to die of natural causes in their 70s and 80s. This is an outrage. People should be resisting. People should be pledging not to wash their hands until governments agree to end these lockdowns".

sypkan's picture
sypkan's picture
sypkan commented Friday, 20 Mar 2020 at 5:53pm

...very economic rationalist...

isn't that how they sold it to us...

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin commented Friday, 20 Mar 2020 at 5:56pm

Perhaps different strains in different locations ?

Freeride....yep. I think that’s coming. It’ll only take a little bit of prompting.

Unfortunately I think that the depression was coming regardless. The impact of the viral disruption is exponentially exaggerated by the current economic climate.

That’s why I still think there’s a connection somewhere. Opportunism or ....?

sypkan's picture
sypkan's picture
sypkan commented Friday, 20 Mar 2020 at 6:16pm

"you can fiddle the numbers but it's hard to hide dead bodies, even in a third world country."

correct, but depends what u attribute death to, not many people die of cancer in indo, ...apparently... lack of diagnosis more likely...

same corona

also, they have no idea number of infections for comparison. lack of resources, plus, word is, ... rich jakartans too stingey to pay 600k rp for test

poor villager, not even an option...

china numbers, botched, doctored, morphing... maybe purposefully... now irrelevant... (norman swan now flat out rejecting them! ...yesterday!)

eorope, us, korea, japan, etc. much better numbers, more realistic

but still a shortage of testing in most places

sypkan's picture
sypkan's picture
sypkan commented Friday, 20 Mar 2020 at 6:07pm

my biggest fear is the weather thingy...

smoco's been spruiking and following singapore model, schools shut down?, business? targeted testing...

could be major miscalculation if weather a factor

sypkan's picture
sypkan's picture
sypkan commented Friday, 20 Mar 2020 at 6:13pm

doh!

just in case it's not clear...

positif = positive
orang = person
190 = 190

ramadan = scary

https://pecihitam.org/190-orang-positif-corona-usai-hadiri-ijtima-tablig...

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 commented Friday, 20 Mar 2020 at 6:15pm

Singapore's a million times more onto it than the Scomo's used car salesman, too little too late half arsed approach.

sypkan's picture
sypkan's picture
sypkan commented Friday, 20 Mar 2020 at 6:18pm

"Singapore's a million times more onto it than the Scomo's used car salesman, too little too late half arsed approach."

yep, ....so maybe not the best model for us to follow?

....nevermind the weather...

simba's picture
simba's picture
simba commented Friday, 20 Mar 2020 at 6:29pm

They just said that 38% of people that have caught corona in the usa are under 55

simba

I focus's picture
I focus's picture
I focus commented Friday, 20 Mar 2020 at 6:34pm

The successful Asian countries have tested far more and have a better handle on infections who has it and then taken action to isolate them.

Not he case in Oz.

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin commented Friday, 20 Mar 2020 at 8:19pm
Distracted's picture
Distracted's picture
Distracted commented Saturday, 21 Mar 2020 at 8:40am

Interesting story from Italy where a village had 3% of population infected, but they were able to manage by testing and quarantine.

https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-21/one-italian-town-is-bucking-th...

I think that infection rate is a lot more indicative of what has already occurred throughout Italy which is why the number of fatalities is so high. Actually mortality rate will be a lot less than what data is currently showing .
Unfortunately probably shows virus is spreading quicker than governments have realised and so they need to take more action now.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Saturday, 21 Mar 2020 at 8:52am

Wow, just wow.

sypkan's picture
sypkan's picture
sypkan commented Saturday, 21 Mar 2020 at 9:08am

... sounds about fair

if journalists had been doing their jobs properly for the last decade or so, instead of being sensationalist propagandaists, we might not have found ourselves in this position

fuckstick jounalist being called out for continuing to be a fuckstick ...fair call..

sypkan's picture
sypkan's picture
sypkan commented Saturday, 21 Mar 2020 at 9:06am

...that doesn't excuse trump for being a fuckstick...

Westofthelake's picture
Westofthelake's picture
Westofthelake commented Saturday, 21 Mar 2020 at 9:19am

A quote from an old mate,

"Just chatted with a friend of mine who is [edited] very very high up in Finnish Military intelligence. He is well up the information pipeline.
Finland went into [edited] restrictions after seeing what was happening in Italy.
He doesn't mince his words.
The feedback / observations from Finland are:
Italy is f*cked
Spain is f*cked
Germany is f*cked
USA - Trump f*cked it. "

sypkan's picture
sypkan's picture
sypkan commented Saturday, 21 Mar 2020 at 9:54am

that's bleak picture west of...

I've got no doubts trump has fucked this up

I've also got no doubts at all, that if the open border chinese apologist zealots from the other side got in that the numbers would be much the same ...just the language would be nicer...

as they continued their endeavour to keep the public perpetually in the dark...

I focus's picture
I focus's picture
I focus commented Saturday, 21 Mar 2020 at 12:01pm

Distracted they tested everyone and took action / isolated those that had it............................Australia lets 2000 people get off of a cruise ship that had infected people on it and sends them off into the public space.

uncle_leroy's picture
uncle_leroy's picture
uncle_leroy commented Saturday, 21 Mar 2020 at 12:45pm

Don't worry, more cruise ships incoming for WA, she'll be right mate...….

loungelizard's picture
loungelizard's picture
loungelizard commented Saturday, 21 Mar 2020 at 2:50pm

cruise ships I think likely to be the metaphor for the end of this age of globalisation/ entitled consumption. who would get on 1 unless at gunpoint now? it isn't publicised but in Italy the age at which you won't be ventilated is 60. with ventilation 50 % survive the severe pneumonia which is the usual denouement. average period of ventilation around 10-20 days. no early predictor who will/won't survive except age (over 80 v. poor) of the young people (over 30) that die, there is no rhyme/reason who will/won't survive (better than the elderly but those without comorbidity dying)
London already pretty much out of icu beds , staff shortages mean they are having to completely sedate patients with the pneumonia but are already critically low on the necessary meds. interns are being taught how to intubate patients. the only antiviral agent shown to have some (limited) use is unavailable.
the virus is mostly droplet not aerosol. survives up to 4 days on metal.assume every surface in public is covered in it (in Sydney it probably is) don't touch anything! wash your hands before touching your face if you do. if you / your family can go full survival mode, do it.
for avid thread readers, pretty sure I called the covid thing out here before blowin, when I heard china had locked down a city I took appropriate action. (see "conspiracy theory " post. (also got the peak of bitcoin right "shoeshine boy" ) saying that only to perhaps give a little more credibility to above warning (my general liberal tendency out of step with the "fuck neoliberal" vibe here".
the government / scomo is not doing enough so do it yourself, get your kids out of school if you can and batten down the hatches. good luck

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno commented Saturday, 21 Mar 2020 at 4:15pm

well said LL, agree. We've battened down hatches and reefed the main here. It feels surreal looking at all the cafe culture goers, and makes me wonder if I'm insane. Then I see the CT scans of young people's lungs and I realise I'm not. Agree on the surfaces bit. My first CV post was maybe in 'interesting stuff' or 'trigger points' in Jan with a link to some Wuhan hospital scenes and 'WTF?'. When China locked down hard and early the Ms was sufficiently alarmed to go full prep with me.

Edit: the kids inform me Italy no ventilator is now >55 instead of >60.

London is going to be a clusterfcuk, guess where I was supposed to fly into in late April...

Cruise ships ---> Hospital ships ----> tales of gore and horror. That will be the end of this part of globalisation. Hope it doesn't end in war to follow.

One request, if you could call the bottom of the DJIA I'd be most appreciative :) I'm looking intently for bull divs on it right now across multiple timeframes... in vain at present.

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin commented Saturday, 21 Mar 2020 at 4:34pm
tylerdurden's picture
tylerdurden's picture
tylerdurden commented Saturday, 21 Mar 2020 at 5:03pm

Forums are a place for everyone to share an opinion right or wrong.
The reality is that it will be bad, probably ultimately 6 times worse than the average flu related deaths per year.
But we have the surge capacity to cope.
I'm confident that there will be the ICU and hospital resources to cope, albeit there may have to be some rationing of resources. There may be an arbitrary age cut off whereby if you are one day older than the magic number you are not offered a ventilator but I doubt it. It will more likely be on a case by case basis, just like ICU's do at the moment.
Italy and Spain if they were to empty ICU's in other parts of the country and transfer patients there could create ICU space. They won't do it for fear of spreading the virus and logistical difficulty...but they could if they really wanted to.
This may be an option for us.
Each state will have a variable spread and recovery, although to maintain a disease free state we will have to stop interstate travel like they've done in Tasmania.
If you consider each Australian state to be akin to each country in Europe, we have had some significant interventions at very low numbers in some states.
When a given state peaks and starts to recover it may be able to help another state out.
Therefore, at this stage, our national total of cases cannot solely be used as a predictor for the nationwide end point.
I would not be surprised (in fact I would expect) Sydney, Melb and at least SE Old to be in total lockdown like Spain and Italy by about Wednesday i.e. 4 days time.
Our case fatality rate will then appear to go up because no one will be going to get tested.
The advice will be to stay home and only present to Emergency if unwell.
Therefore the increase in denominator will slow down. Simultaneously, those infected last week will start to die next week so the numerator will rise.
However, the true mortality (death rate) will not change during this period.
In total it will be 1-2%, mainly 70+ age group. Mortality of under 50's will be more like 0.1% but there will plenty of examples of fit young people dying.
The return to normal life pre-corona will be many months, maybe a year.
Return to normal will need herd immunity, a vaccine or a sustained period of no new diagnosis...at least 6 months minimum. Then will have to have mandatory 14 day isolation for all international visitors for a long time after that

simba's picture
simba's picture
simba commented Saturday, 21 Mar 2020 at 5:11pm

fuk Blowin thats heavy watching ....reality check

simba

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno commented Saturday, 21 Mar 2020 at 5:30pm

TD good view, quite reasoned. I'd add within a couple of months new ways of supply chains will be up and running, and the weekly shop will be dropped off - or a rationed version of it at first. Hopefully small businesses can leverage this change if it doesn't go under in the meantime. 14 day quarantine will decimate tourism for some time, as will stigma on planes or ships, but really there must be better ways of making our way in the world than selling off our landmarks as experiences until it looks like the crowds and carpark of the 12 Apostles recently.

loungelizard's picture
loungelizard's picture
loungelizard commented Saturday, 21 Mar 2020 at 6:47pm

always hard to pick the bottom. solid small cap health stocks that have sunk with the overall market as a sector is as specific as I will get as an amateur

kirwoods's picture
kirwoods's picture
kirwoods commented Saturday, 21 Mar 2020 at 7:36pm

Ok Boomer.

I focus's picture
I focus's picture
I focus commented Saturday, 21 Mar 2020 at 7:47pm

If you want to stay up to date .........

https://twitter.com/i/status/1240764446810746881

soggydog's picture
soggydog's picture
soggydog commented Saturday, 21 Mar 2020 at 10:21pm

I just went to purchase a ventolin inhaler.
Because of hoarders something that was easily purchased over the counter is now a major head fuck to get. After four different chemists I didn’t get one.
I usually only need it for sport so no preventer prescription means no what was formally over the counter medication.
People are rooted.

mr mick's picture
mr mick's picture
mr mick commented Saturday, 21 Mar 2020 at 8:57pm

Journalists got us to this position? What, the position of Coronavirus? Sorry,but dumb call in my books! Response to Sypkan.

Mr mick

mikehunt207's picture
mikehunt207's picture
mikehunt207 commented Saturday, 21 Mar 2020 at 9:09pm

But the reporting, sensationalism and " fake news" becoming the norm on so much stuff for the last few years just to get clicks has put journalistic credibility on the line for a lot of people. That clip actually made Trump look like he was making a valid point (for once) . Sad state of affairs . Even the ABC is guilty of this . Makes a bunch of surfers on a surfing forum sharing info seem like real news (somewhat) in comparison. Points made here weeks and weeks ago turn out dead right , ideas made weeks and weeks ago are now being spruiked . Northern Territory to close interstate borders coming tuesday,everybody who enters must have mandatory isolation which will be enforced. Fuck might pack the family up and head north...

truebluebasher's picture
truebluebasher's picture
truebluebasher commented Saturday, 21 Mar 2020 at 11:56pm

Thanks for sharing Blowin... hard to link this one about Italian's final requests...
As you can see, patients must die 'alone' fully conscious of the fact...Horrific it is.
https://nypost.com/2020/03/13/italian-doctor-describes-coronavirus-patie...

truebluebasher's picture
truebluebasher's picture
truebluebasher commented Sunday, 22 Mar 2020 at 2:18am

[ QLD HEALTH ALERT ]
Burleigh Point
Rick Shores Beach Pub (Area)
Friday 13th March (Midday - 1:30pm)
39 y/o Man Tested Positive
(A small number that sat near this man may have been exposed)
Phone Doctor ahead...immediately (Check Symptoms)

uncle_leroy's picture
uncle_leroy's picture
uncle_leroy commented Sunday, 22 Mar 2020 at 9:18am

Make sure you take all the smelly vanlife with you @MikeHunt
If the Shire wants to make some money in these dark times, enforce the no camping

sypkan's picture
sypkan's picture
sypkan commented Sunday, 22 Mar 2020 at 11:48am

when you've got sports teams flying around the country, totally kitted out with face masks etc., whilst doctors are having to reuse and recycle theirs in the midst of a pandemic you know your coutries values and priorities are all messed up...

Balance's picture
Balance's picture
Balance commented Sunday, 22 Mar 2020 at 11:43am

Anyone think it's over the top to go get cash out of the bank at this stage...I thought it seemed pretty ridiculous when people were doing that during the GFC...but this feel much worse??

HaddoCurl's picture
HaddoCurl's picture
HaddoCurl commented Sunday, 22 Mar 2020 at 1:44pm

Over the top I suggest Balance. Some places are not accepting cash, the financial system is not broken (yes I know that's debatable) and we've still got power. I started using my digital wallet on the phone yesterday instead of tapping via card.

Haddo

I focus's picture
I focus's picture
I focus commented Sunday, 22 Mar 2020 at 1:55pm

Balance not over the top to have some cash if you want reasons I can go into if you want.

sypkan's picture
sypkan's picture
sypkan commented Sunday, 22 Mar 2020 at 7:23pm

from loungelizard....

"...the virus is mostly droplet not aerosol. survives up to 4 days on metal.assume every surface in public is covered in it (in Sydney it probably is) don't touch anything!"

everything I've read points this way, more droplets of ewww, rather than the floating in the air stuff that makes you paranoid, stuff is more globule than vapour (think cough, sneeze) and I reckon this is why it surprised them in how it behaves eg. initially saying viruses typically last about 5 hours, then it was 12hrs ,a day, days, now I've heard up to 9 days....

It seems it's a bit sticky, and likes smooth solid surfaces ie. infrastructure, handrailss cars, etc. it's a bit like the perfect urban disease in a way

and yeh sydney...

perfect urban disease.... acting strange, different to what we've seen before, sticky, longer lasting, respiritory disease surprisinely attacking other organs.... oh stop it...

"...wash your hands before touching your face if you do."

they're big big on this hands thing, and doing it properly, one can guess because of basic flu common sense that many seem to have forgotten, but also mainly perhaps, because of the stickyness

wash your hands properly!

....pity I cannot buy handwash and sanitizer... soap's good, possibly better, ...but it'd be nice to have the extra armour, especially when 'they're' suggesting it...

good advice and good luck to you

sypkan's picture
sypkan's picture
sypkan commented Sunday, 22 Mar 2020 at 2:31pm

the government are paranoid to act because of economy, fair enough, that's what they do... but they're also paranoid because they're worried about resistence, the aussie spirit and all that...

I think most people are taking this seriously and actiing independently, void of faith in the government, they see little choice... ....well, besides boneheads and backpackers...

I see the government's biggest problem as equal access to resources, that which is required, we are not seeing this at all. and the government's answer is to berate the public

this is not panning out well for them...

Balance's picture
Balance's picture
Balance commented Sunday, 22 Mar 2020 at 2:30pm

Thanks ifocus...probably not necessary, I am going to stick a few bucks under my pillow...though I would be genuinely interested to hear your reasons

I actually messaged a good mate a few hours ago...he said he got a phone call at 1 in the morning a few days ago from a friend who is a big man on campus in Qld health. He had been in a meeting with officials including premier that evening

He told school is no chance of returning after holidays...and to get a few months of cash out if you can. He said govt is considering controlling bank accounts...or something to that effect. Make of that what you will...I have no idea but will play safe and take the advice

Balance's picture
Balance's picture
Balance commented Sunday, 22 Mar 2020 at 2:39pm

And this is pretty funny on toilet paper...aldi I think it was, 1 pack per person policy

My mum went to buy some on friday but all that was left was single rolls...so she tried to buy 2...but was told no sorry 1 per person...fuckers

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 commented Sunday, 22 Mar 2020 at 2:45pm

Supermarkets haven't covered themselves in glory during this.

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather commented Sunday, 22 Mar 2020 at 2:51pm

Steve these countries would have very poor testing and reporting facilities.

*edit I tried responding to your Vietnam/Indo comment but it posted it here for some reason.

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather commented Sunday, 22 Mar 2020 at 2:57pm

Once people panic withdrawing cash out of their banks then it will be the whole
Toilet paper sheep mentality again and then the banks and gov will shit themselves and introduce cash withdrawal limits. Put all your money in cryptocurrency I say!!!

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin commented Sunday, 22 Mar 2020 at 3:02pm

Not BOT , Don ?

I focus's picture
I focus's picture
I focus commented Sunday, 22 Mar 2020 at 4:30pm

Balance lots of reasons but staying clear of conspiracy, big brother control stuff just the fact you may need to trade of buy stuff straight from other people isn't out of the question.

Lock downs will likely bring shortages and cash will be king at such times particularly if you need something from a black market medicines and the like come to mind.

If you don't spend pretty easy just to deposit back into the account no big deal.

truebluebasher's picture
truebluebasher's picture
truebluebasher commented Sunday, 22 Mar 2020 at 5:15pm

New Cleaner Airline vidz expose the weakest link as the cause of outbreak.
Passengers Disembark & all know the only time germs are shared is by Handrails
No wiping of Handrails the cleaners transfer concentrated Germs thru whole plane.
Cleaners Exit by spreading a 3rd lot of germs via the same rail.

New Nation of passengers board & cross spread a new lot as now 4 sets of germs.
Spreading as a 5th lot throughout clean Plane over cleaners handrail germs.
This germ cocktail keeps brewing & brewing without end.

All vids show there is no time to clean the #1 cross contaminating viral hot spot.
In fact several cleaners sign off clipboards at bottom of rail...yep! All sanitised!
Can't any cleaner see that the handrail is the prime contagion (#1 cleaning task!)
Consider this is the smartest hi tech industry that can't see shit!

Most likely the Concord was last Plane to have hand rails cleaned...So old school!
Just saying to probably avoid the hand rail & you might just avoid the Plague.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YZGBQtbsmr4

Also (Never drink potable water, Coffee or Tea on a plane or wash hands)
https://www.msn.com/en-us/travel/tips/should-you-think-twice-about-washi...

tbb is amazed how URBNSURF taps into Airport slurry without Govt Bio security checkpoint.
Not saying nothing...but surfers should know if Govt is OK with Pool Water...(No more Mystery!)

shoredump's picture
shoredump's picture
shoredump commented Sunday, 22 Mar 2020 at 5:36pm

How sad is all this for humanity. Every day I wake up and go through the same emotional response when I remember it wasn’t a bad dream :(
Stay safe everyone