COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster

Craig's picture
Craig started the topic in Wednesday, 18 Mar 2020 at 7:44pm

I've created a spreadsheet forecast which I'll update as we go..

There's also a website with live running data.. https://sites.google.com/view/stayhomeaustralia

indo-dreaming's picture
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indo-dreaming commented Thursday, 28 May 2020 at 8:52am

I think its also just got to do more with a better understanding, diagnose & observation on these things, i went through my life having never been diagnosed with anything, being not the worst but always towards the lower end of my classes at english and maths, but always being among the best often the best in class at things like art and anything to do with my hands especially in high school trade type subjects, i always had friends and never really bullied though.

Im most likely somewhere on the lower end of autistic spectrum and defiantly dyslexic or related, im sure it's obvious just from how i write my post.

Please Stunet give me an ignore button for Talking Turkey, Shatners Basoon, Dale Cooper, Factotum, Pupkin, and any new fake profile he decides to create.

sypkan's picture
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sypkan commented Thursday, 28 May 2020 at 1:01pm

"Im most likely somewhere on the lower end of autistic spectrum and defiantly dyslexic or related, im sure it's obvious just from how i write my post."

...someone has to take hold of this golden opportunity, facto's self restaint can't hold much longer...

you may well be 'defiantly dyslexic' indo, but i reckon you are almost certainly not definitely dyslexic

definitely not definitely dyslexic actually, you're writing now...

technically dyslexic refers to the most extreme cases of not being able to read and write, just as technically OCD only refers to the most extreme cases of OCDness, same ADD, ADHD, ODD, etc.

...and once ASD....

these are extreme debillitating conditions, or once were, before they entered into the public's vocabulary, now everyone's ocd about something

you're right there was lots of underdiagnosis before, as some kids were just a bit 'slow' or 'naughty', but now we're well into the realms of overdiagnoses, of all of these conditions. especially with asd, autism, as it has become a bit of an umbrella term, way to quickly applied, to a range of conditions

mikehunt touching on the tabboos there...

I won't let that stop me...

this is really hard to talk about, too much guilt and blame etc., hence us never talking about it... but I reckon a lot of crew amongst themselves have had your conversation mike

I don't reckon its necessarily about raves and pills, though the growth, then mainstreaming, of that culture and associated amphetamime use must have had a huge impact

I reckon it's more about substance abuse in general, before women realise they're pregnant largely, then the rare cases where women don't change their behaviour, which is just gambling with the worst of it all

there was a great abc docco about 'speed kids' or something like that. over a few weeks they looked at various kids diagnosed with ADD, ADHD, and presribed with dexy's. one poor mum put her ADHD daughter's condition down to her drinking through pregnancy. not excessively, just the government advised 2-3 a day or whatever it was (which has been revised). poor mum was racked with guilt, daughter was loose and tough to look after, I really felt for her, tough gig, very brave of her to tallk about it

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velocityjohnno commented Friday, 29 May 2020 at 4:37pm

NZ so successful in eradicating coronavirus, that they are going to extend the method to STIs - I don't know how they will achieve this tbh

https://www.smh.com.au/world/oceania/down-to-just-one-covid-19-case-nz-i...

"Gatherings of up to 100 people are now allowed, though physical distancing between strangers still a part of the regime.

"What needs to happen now is before people re-enter the realm of sex with casual partners, they need a test," Myers said."

I think the sex might have already started before you have tested for it...

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GuySmiley commented Friday, 29 May 2020 at 5:48pm

Beat me to it VJ, a great result for the NZ people and its leadership. Next trip to the South Island is looking good for later in the year if Australia continues on this current trend.

Blowin's picture
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Blowin commented Friday, 29 May 2020 at 5:54pm

https://www.swellnet.com/forums/politico/495029

Not sure why this hasn’t come up on the home page as a stand alone thread ?

inzider's picture
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inzider commented Friday, 29 May 2020 at 6:14pm

I'm pro choice. You want to vaccine go for it. If you dont I understand your right to not go there. Some of the comments on here are seriously fucked in the head.

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tylerdurden commented Friday, 29 May 2020 at 8:07pm

But Inzider if you choose not to vaccinate then you put those that have vaccinated at risk, as well as your stupid self

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fitzroy-21 commented Friday, 29 May 2020 at 8:37pm

@Tyler, if you are vaccinated, how are those that aren't putting you at risk??

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tylerdurden commented Friday, 29 May 2020 at 10:00pm

See above.
In short, if enough choose not to be vaccinated then herd immunity will not be reached then the disease is a chance of re-emerging.
Vaccines greatly reduce your chance of getting the disease but don’t eliminate the risk.
Therefore, if the disease re-emerges then a small number of those already vaccinated will get the disease.
Herd immunity is the ultimate aim of vaccinations and those who choose not to vaccinate reduce the likelihood of it being achieved.
The TGA only approve a vaccination program if it is orders of magnitude better than not vaccinating, so therefore I find it hard to understand where the “pro-choice” crowd get their info. Cereal packet maybe? Or don’t understand stats? Or worse still choose not to because they think herd immunity will be achieved without them and therefore don’t need to take any risks

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MidWestMonger commented Saturday, 30 May 2020 at 9:46am

An observation re: Mike hunts comments
I knew a heavily pregnant girl who refused to quit smoking weed. Used to get angry when we broached the subject. ‘You don’t know how sick I feel without it’
Anyway she had a happy little boy but as the other kids started crawling, talking , learning he just sat there banging toys together smiling but not anywhere near the same learning curve.

Blowin's picture
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Blowin commented Saturday, 30 May 2020 at 9:08pm

Are we still sure it’s not a total hoax....really ?

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html

Any chance someone with a bit of expertise in interpreting medical statistics could explain these low fatality rates ?

shoredump's picture
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shoredump commented Sunday, 31 May 2020 at 7:32am

0.004 is the most accurate case fatality rate we have now. Am I reading that right

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shoredump commented Sunday, 31 May 2020 at 7:49am

I’d love some clarification too Blowin

I’ll tell you what I reckon happened.
We listened and followed medical experts advice.
Sounds harmless enough, but what if we did the same with dieticians. BBQs would be banned, beer also. All chocolate and soft drink would be removed from shelves. Everyone would start panic buying kale, actually that’s wrong it’d still be toilet paper for some reason.
All the fun would be sucked out of life, the dieticians would be vindicated however because diet related cases would drop dramatically.
But, you know, is it worth it?
Here’s another idea, we could drive at 40kmh on every road and every freeway because you remember, it’s a sin to ignore the economy and practicality and put anything before the obvious lives that will be saved.
Stay the fuck below 40 everyone

The CMO did his job and he did it well.
We are living in his paradise.

I wish for Mason Ho to be in charge for a little while and see where that takes us

indo-dreaming's picture
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indo-dreaming commented Sunday, 31 May 2020 at 8:28am

I don't like the word Hoax for me that's too strong, but i think shoredump post above makes a good point.

It was a smart approach that we have taken, both from a health a political aspect, but moving forward maybe the approach needs to be varied and factor in economy and lifestyle a bit more, its surely can't be sustainable to keep taking the current approach for much longer.

Please Stunet give me an ignore button for Talking Turkey, Shatners Basoon, Dale Cooper, Factotum, Pupkin, and any new fake profile he decides to create.

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saltyone commented Sunday, 31 May 2020 at 9:20am
Blowin's picture
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Blowin commented Sunday, 31 May 2020 at 9:31am

If the WHO was serious about the Wuflu , their actions of insisting global borders remained open was an act of blatant incompetence at best . More likely just the result of corruption of the WHO leadership.

https://www.smh.com.au/national/35-000-infections-the-cost-of-a-one-week...

The concept of the WHO is a global necessity. The current status of the WHO in regards is politicisation means that it needs root and branch reformation.

Trump has the right idea. Whether it’ll lead to a similar international institution with a more independent political neutrality remains to be seen.

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stunet commented Sunday, 31 May 2020 at 9:42am

"Trump has the right idea."

He does? Trump is retreating from global institutions. Who the hell do you think is going to fill the void?

I'd say Trump is the polar opposite to what America and the world needs now. 

Let's face it, most current critics hadn't even heard of the WHO before last December and remain clueless to its charter, it's past successes, and it's internal machinations.

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saltyone commented Sunday, 31 May 2020 at 9:43am

Yes they stuffed up big time . Possibly intentionally. Either way it’s a strong stance he is taking and yes will definitely be interesting what will develop internationally with other health institutions . Maybe without reliance on globalist funders with their own set of agendas the playing field can be evened out.

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stunet commented Sunday, 31 May 2020 at 10:05am

"...yes will definitely be interesting what will develop internationally with other health institutions."

Jeez, have people been paying no heed to Trump since he got in power?

Nothing will eventuate. Trump has no intention of creating new global institutions, and even if he did the rest of the world is hardly going to leave an established agency to sign up to a new one headed by a fading superpower.

For those who don't get it yet, Trump isn't talking to the world, he's talking to his voters; he's playing domestic politics. He's not an internationalist and never will be.

Because of that, he is precisely what the world, and more specifically America, DON'T need right now.

For all his tough talk - again, it's just a performance for his voters - he's simply making it easier for China to fill the breech.

JQ's picture
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JQ commented Sunday, 31 May 2020 at 10:19am

Come on Blowin, even you can't be silly enough to think that Trump wants an organisation with 'independent political neutrality'.

If he wants any form of international organisation at all, he would want the exact opposite of that which you have described.

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Westofthelake commented Sunday, 31 May 2020 at 10:21am

Spot on Stu.

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troppo dichotomy commented Sunday, 31 May 2020 at 10:40am

WHO should already be in Wuhan investigating the origins of the outbreak.

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sypkan commented Sunday, 31 May 2020 at 11:40am

the WHO needed to be called out, even some of the most apologist internationalists have acknowledge that. there must be corruption

Trump's right in calling it out, their whole act was abysmal. its just rather unfortunate that trump's inheritness will channel any changes to questionable alternatives

global organisations are on the decline regardless, the apparent corruption is no longer ignorable, across the board, luckily people are talking of middle power alliances developing to fill the void, australia, japan, korea, maybe france, germany etc. from europe type stuff, indo, phillipines this could be a good thing, the global bodies have been shown to be too open to corruption and too distant to know whats going on.

I don't think we have to accept the inevitabilty of china as the new superpower, it appears their power is much shakier than much of the world believes it to be. their little virus weapon of war didn't go down too well, and many of the more 'internationalist' countries are now at least humming trump's tune even if they dont intend to sing it

more localised common interest agreements, and avoid the two super power model we've come to accept, doesn't sound all bad

trump just ain't really the guy to negotiate the transition...

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shoredump commented Sunday, 31 May 2020 at 11:37am

Although I agree with him simply making it easier for China to fill the breech, I also think that a significant portion of the world are also well aware of this, and what we are seeing is the beginning of them (let’s say us and EU plus a few others) growing some balls and also filling that void.
Some politics going on already that suggests this is true.
Point taken on WHOs many past victories, but right now it’s a major fucked up puppet show, and absolutely Trump should stop spending money on propping up the world when they are a fading super power, to focus on themselves.
Do we have an explanation from China on the cessation of phone use at the Wuhan lab and surrounding streets in October yet?
Given the facility it happened at, and the number of people that have died through out the world from CV19, it’s a pretty big deal
Edit: I agree Spykan

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Blowin commented Sunday, 31 May 2020 at 1:26pm

Not sure what your point is Stu , regarding the past glories of the WHO.

It’s obvious that they are now entrenched as a tool of political machination for China. I’m not talking about the boots on the ground performing the work , I’m talking about the upper hierarchy.

The performance of the WHO was a liability on the global fight against the virus. This is inarguable. Read the link I posted this morning about the amount of cases Australia would have seen had we not ignored the WHO and left our borders open. Any assessment of the WHO’s performance is based on current achievements, not shit they did a decade ago.

This was the largest pandemic in a century and the WHO failed comprehensively . This plunged the globe into chaos. Not sure why you’d choose to overlook that and congratulate them on other circumstances. When they were really , really needed they chose partisan politics over humanity.

As for China filling the breach.....pfft.

The US has donated ten times to the WHO as China. The CCP doesn’t support international bodies it just bribes / corrupts key players within the institution in order to get their way. China completely ignored the WHO dictates to address the wild animal trade which was meant to be enacted post SARS.

A global institution is meant to protect every nation and serve every nation as equals. China has no respect for international law or international institutions beyond their usefulness as a means to achieving the goals of the Chinese government.

Trump is policing the South China Sea which is the quintessential trade route requiring international agreement whilst the rest of the world sits on their hands. Trump is not as isolationist as you think , he just doesn’t seem to like taking it in the rear and having the US fund all these global institutions whilst other countries ignore their responsibilities such as funding commitments.

The US still pays for the vast , vast majority of these global institutions. Without the US many would not exist. China has displayed no interest in meeting the funding requirements its nation is obliged to pay....they just want control.

PS....Here’s a list of the last year’s contributions to the WHO.

https://www.who.int/about/finances-accountability/funding/AC_Status_Repo...

USA paid multiples of China , Germany, France , Japan. Why don’t these countries contribute more ?

China has sat with its dick in its hands for years paying very little, abusing its position as a developing nation ( Lol ) whilst the USA haters show utter ingratitude for the contributions from the USA both financial and supporting. Now we are meant to think that China is going to start raining cash on these international bodies ? Like fuck.

Blowin's picture
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Blowin commented Sunday, 31 May 2020 at 1:30pm

JQ....not sure what you’re on about.

Trump has been paying the US’s oversized share of these global institutions for over three years now without demanding control. The whole “ Trump as dictator “ trope is a piss take.

JQ's picture
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JQ commented Sunday, 31 May 2020 at 1:54pm

Sound like you've got it sorted eh Blowin:

'It’s obvious that they are now entrenched as a tool of political machination for China. I’m not talking about the boots on the ground performing the work , I’m talking about the upper hierarchy.'

Let's call off that inquiry, waste of time hey.

Blowin's picture
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Blowin commented Sunday, 31 May 2020 at 2:01pm

JQ....Occam’s razor gets dropped around here a fair bit. Why not employ it to the behaviour of the WHO ?

Or maybe you’ve got a better explanation for the absolute clusterfuck handling of the Wuflu by the WHO ?

It was either incompetence or political....pick your poison.

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JQ commented Sunday, 31 May 2020 at 2:00pm

That's an interesting link Blowin, I wonder if this explains that kawasaki-like disease that has appeared in some children.

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JQ commented Sunday, 31 May 2020 at 2:06pm

Blowin, I'd wager the WHO has been politically influenced, yes by China, but undoubtedly by all of the other major powers too. Yes to varying degrees, China may be the worst, who knows.

No one knows (except perhaps the top level WHO people) until there is a proper, impartial inquiry.

While I don't doubt that China would have put a lot of pressure on the WHO to be favourable to them, I also think that if the virus had originated in Russia or the US for example, similar political pressure would have been exerted. Yes, maybe more, maybe less, but I think it's been plain for everyone to see how politicians the world over will prioritise the economy over the health of their citizens.

What do you think Donald would've done had the virus originated in the US and the WHO was going to recommend other countries shut down travel from the US? Do you think he would call it a sensible decision and go along with it? Sure, he probably wouldn't have cried racism, but you can be damn sure he'd have a big old tantrum about it

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Blowin commented Sunday, 31 May 2020 at 2:19pm

I’m not particularly interested in a hypothetical about Trump.

The behaviour of the WHO appeared for all intents and purposes to have been orchestrated to prioritise preservation of CCP image over the fundamental mandate of their existence which is world health.

I can only go from what I’ve seen and read from a variety of sources. The recorded timeline of action and the public announcements from the WHO don’t give this keyboard observer any confidence in their behaviour whatsoever.

Other keyboard observers might come to a different conclusion based on their deep knowledge of the WHO.

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JQ commented Sunday, 31 May 2020 at 2:33pm

Sypkan, are you seriously suggesting China released the corona virus deliberately to harm their political rivals?

"their little virus weapon of war didn't go down too well"

This just seems utterly bizarre to me.

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Blowin commented Sunday, 31 May 2020 at 2:40pm

So much for Trump abandoning international institutions

https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/donald-trump-says-he-will-pos...

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Blowin commented Sunday, 31 May 2020 at 2:43pm

Public healthcare is for commies !

https://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/local-news/covid-survivor-receives...

Stories like this never fail to amaze me.

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Fliplid commented Sunday, 31 May 2020 at 3:05pm

The thing that amazes me even more is that there are Australians who actually want to go down the path of a user pays system and believe small government is the answer. Every time another government asset is sold off or funding is cut to hospitals and education we get a bit closer to the American system. Good luck to your kids and grand kids who will have to live with that.

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shortenism commented Sunday, 31 May 2020 at 3:23pm

More mainstream starting to pick up on it finally... Have a listen to the QLD Health Minister and Palaszczuk..... So what is the mortality rate........Really....? https://www.skynews.com.au/details/_6159621090001

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loungelizard commented Sunday, 31 May 2020 at 3:42pm

I think so. how do you explain them criticising Australia for banning Chinese travellers (exporting their virus)at the same time as they had complete internal lockdown? doesn't mean they invented the virus but I think they took the opportunity to spread some international mayhem. ask the tibetans/ Uighurs in reeducation camps if they are nice guys

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loungelizard commented Sunday, 31 May 2020 at 3:43pm

re JQ I think so. how do you explain them criticising Australia for banning Chinese travellers (exporting their virus)at the same time as they had complete internal lockdown? doesn't mean they invented the virus but I think they took the opportunity to spread some international mayhem. ask the tibetans/ Uighurs in reeducation camps if they are nice guys

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JQ commented Sunday, 31 May 2020 at 5:21pm

I think it's very naive to think that the virus would not have spread loungelizard. It's very contagious and many carriers are asymptomatic. I've heard quite a few reports of initial cases occurring in various countries well before it was initially thought to have started.

China's economy will suffer greatly from this, as everyone's will, I think theirs even more than most, given their reliance on exports. I think It's a pretty preposterous theory that they spread it deliberately loungelizard.

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sypkan commented Sunday, 31 May 2020 at 6:39pm

"Sypkan, are you seriously suggesting China released the corona virus deliberately to harm their political rivals?

"their little virus weapon of war didn't go down too well"

This just seems utterly bizarre to me."

I'm not saying they deliberately released it. but they most certainly weaponised it when they stopped all domestic flights from wuhan but continued international ones. that was a conscious decision, calculated

as was giving misinformation and dodgy data

china's non kinetic war

that's at best...

ie least malicious

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sypkan commented Sunday, 31 May 2020 at 6:49pm

". I think It's a pretty preposterous theory that they spread it deliberately loungelizard."

how else do you explain stopping all domestic flights and continuing international ones whilst constantly lying and denying?

it was a choice, not negligence, they knew exactly what they were doing, and they knew more than anyone at that time how contagious the virua was, but they kept it secret, locked down, whilst pushing out their citizens across the globe

a dog act at best

that's without even considering the starting point

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JQ commented Sunday, 31 May 2020 at 6:38pm

'how else do you explain stopping domestic flights and continuing international ones whilst they constantly lied and denied?'

I would put that down to pride, perhaps thinking it's easier to hide / downplay if they can keep the information suppressed.

The core motivator, as always, is money. Hiding / Downplaying is beneficial to their (or anyones government in that position) economy. I don't see how deliberately - as you seem to be claiming - spreading the virus over the globe benefits them economically. They are going to suffer just as much, if not more, than anyone else.

I also think it's naive to think that transmission of this virus across the globe could have been stopped. We're too interconnected for that now days.

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JQ commented Sunday, 31 May 2020 at 6:39pm

If, on the outside chance you are correct Sypkan - I would certainly classify it as a 'dog act', might even suggest stronger language than that.

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sypkan commented Sunday, 31 May 2020 at 6:52pm

Im trying to understate it

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sypkan commented Sunday, 31 May 2020 at 7:00pm

its an economic war, they don't want real war, its all part of their plan, the virus pushed them to act about five years too early, forced their true face, their true intentions

luckily for us...

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JQ commented Sunday, 31 May 2020 at 7:17pm

Yeah nah sypkan, starting to get into conspiracy style crap there man.

It's an economic war where they put a few rounds through their own feet too?

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Vic Local commented Sunday, 31 May 2020 at 7:22pm

Sypkan, you might want to loosen the tin foil hat.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

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shortenism commented Sunday, 31 May 2020 at 7:45pm

Forget China lads, I'd be having a good look at your own Govt. Did you watch the link above, which has the QLD Health Minister openly admitting that any death where you have Covid-19, even if you didn't die from it is registered as a COVID-19 death. So you could fall down the stairs with COVID in your system and die from a broken neck, but you on paper died from COVID.. I mean really?? What about the 100th death in Oz, 92 with dementia.. Was that death dementia related or was it COVID?? Not sure about you guys but to me thats a serious indication that this whole stage show is based on mud. Same things happening the world over. So yeah China has a role to play but who doesn't.

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Vic Local commented Sunday, 31 May 2020 at 7:59pm

Dementia is a syndrome which comes on relatively slowing and effects the brain. Covid 19 attacks the lungs with patients requiring a ventilator in severe cases. I'm tipping doctors can probably tell the cause of death. And has anyone with a broken neck been written up as a Covid 19 victim. Seems like a bit of a long shot to me.
Love to know your thoughts on 5G and Bill Gates Shortism..

"angry online, smiley in the brine"