COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster

Craig's picture
Craig started the topic in Wednesday, 18 Mar 2020 at 7:44pm

I've created a spreadsheet forecast which I'll update as we go..

There's also a website with live running data.. https://sites.google.com/view/stayhomeaustralia

Blowin's picture
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Blowin commented Wednesday, 3 Jun 2020 at 9:50am

The GFC....call it what you want.

I’m not so much defending Trump as I am attacking the collusive and undemocratic push by established media to delegitimise an elected leader’s position.

I don’t know about the Fox News birther thing. If they piled in then they’re no better.

But when the Australian Broadcasting Commissioner starts parroting a conspiracy theory driven by political imperative....that’s when it’s too ugly to contemplate.

stunet's picture
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stunet commented Wednesday, 3 Jun 2020 at 9:51am

Well fair enough then.

But for mine, I find Trump's use of it a weak attempt at a shiny bauble, and also deeply ironic because the last global recession was his country's doing.

And further, he wants to deregulate financial markets even more. They're his own wet market.

sypkan's picture
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sypkan commented Wednesday, 3 Jun 2020 at 10:51am

the difference between the US virus and the china virus is economic hardship sucks. and economic hardship with a stinking virus thick in the air really sucks

people dont like to get sick, they don't like misery, and they dont want to live amongst a thick air of plague probably even more so than economic hardship

china was kind enough to give us both

the fact the dose they gave us is shrouded in secrecy and corruption just adds to generally downer atmosphere

the fact many people have seen this coming for years, yet we walked into it under dogmmatic blind faith just hurts way down inside, it's the ultimate doh!

shortenism's picture
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shortenism commented Wednesday, 3 Jun 2020 at 11:47am

Covid Death Rate 10 X lower than WHO claims. Infectious diseases physician and Associate Professor of Medicine, Eran Bendavid
https://www.skynews.com.au/details/_6161061157001?fbclid=IwAR1CjyIb8FSIS...

Its similar to the flu FFS. Why are we in lockdown again.. Strain on ICU is way off in the rear-view mirror..

I focus's picture
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I focus commented Wednesday, 3 Jun 2020 at 12:56pm

Indo agree totally with your previous comments.............I always knew you would come over to the leftard side one day............ feeling there could even be a bromance here.

I focus's picture
I focus's picture
I focus commented Wednesday, 3 Jun 2020 at 12:57pm

"Its similar to the flu FFS"

Really, how do you come to that conclusion?

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Wednesday, 3 Jun 2020 at 1:13pm

"Its similar to the flu FFS"

Really, how do you come to that conclusion?"
Shortenism comes to that conclusion because he heard it somewhere and really wants to believe it. He's a muppet.
Meanwhile the experts, not to mention the mass graves in Brazil, tend to indicate this isn't just a flu.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

indo-dreaming's picture
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indo-dreaming commented Wednesday, 3 Jun 2020 at 1:31pm

"Indo agree totally with your previous comments.............I always knew you would come over to the leftard side one day............ feeling there could even be a bromance here."

I know you are probably joking , but not believing in conspiracy theories isn't a left or right thing, just seems like common sense.

Unfortunately the things that shortenism believe and the views he shares is popular among both left and right and judging from what i see on social media quite popular among surfers. (surprise we don't have more shortenism's here)

BTW. I use to actually be very left leaning in my views and for a very long time, i use to vote Green, then Labor my views have only changed in the last few years after i guess just taking more of an interest in certain issues, news, economics, politics etc and i think certain issues have got me reevaluating things.

Blowin's picture
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Blowin commented Wednesday, 3 Jun 2020 at 1:35pm

Fake news :

Vic Local commented SUNDAY, 29 MAR 2020 at 8:10PM
That's terrible. Noosa will be a virus hotspot within weeks. When retirees on the Sunshine Coast start dying, the full horror of this weekend might dawn on the loggers.

Vic Local's picture
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Vic Local commented Wednesday, 3 Jun 2020 at 1:41pm

Indo Dreaming, TBH, I don't have a massive problem with the right side of politics, except when they are A. Corrupt. B. Racist or C. Anti-science.
The big problem is, the LNP is now dominated by corrupt, anti-science, racists. Turnbull was neither A, B or C and that's why he had to get the chop by his colleagues.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

shortenism's picture
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shortenism commented Wednesday, 3 Jun 2020 at 1:54pm

Hey Vic, while you were distracted trying to find stones to throw you must have missed where that conclusion came from = Infectious diseases physician and Associate Professor of Medicine, Eran Bendavid.

shortenism's picture
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shortenism commented Wednesday, 3 Jun 2020 at 1:59pm

Hahahahaha Blowin!! There he is... Exposed... Deception and fear-mongering = Vic

indo-dreaming's picture
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indo-dreaming commented Wednesday, 3 Jun 2020 at 3:17pm

@Vic Local

Dont kid yourself the left and left side of politics also tick all those boxes.

Vic Local's picture
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Vic Local commented Wednesday, 3 Jun 2020 at 3:35pm

Shortenism. You're an absolute clown who cherrypicks research to support a conclusion and ignores the serious questions marks.
https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/stephaniemlee/stanford-coronavirus-...
Here you go big fella. Little article about Eran Bendavid, and who funded his research.
You finally think you've found an expert to back up your insane conspiracy theories only to find out, his research wasn't peer-reviewed, was funded by a person who owns an airline, is now subject to a whistleblower complaint, and has been heavily criticised by others in the field. Ouch.
PS Way to ignore the mass graves in Brazil.
PPS. I see the story came from an Eran Bendavid interview with Andrew Bolt. It's a classic example of how News Limited try to give a shit, discredited study some credibility. Why am I not surprised people like Shortenism fall for crap science and even worse journalism.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

shortenism's picture
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shortenism commented Wednesday, 3 Jun 2020 at 3:56pm

hahaha ok Vic, good research. Thanks for the link. Thought you went quiet for a while.. Scurrying around to find some dirt on shortenism's ref.. Yep its all pretty funny, I mean your predictions about catastrophic life loss on the sunny coast prove's that no-one is immune from getting things wrong, not even Vic..

Vic Local's picture
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Vic Local commented Wednesday, 3 Jun 2020 at 4:01pm

Hey Shortenism. I'm happy to admit I got that wrong about the Sunshine Coast, but here's the thing: When people get things wrong by being too cautious it's actually a good thing. When people get things wrong about Covid 19 by pretending it's not serious, tens of thousands of people die early. Exhibit A: USA. Exhibit B Brazil.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

shortenism's picture
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shortenism commented Wednesday, 3 Jun 2020 at 4:15pm

Yeah Vic, you are about as correct with the Sunny Coast call as the mainstream journalism has been globally on this issue.. It all started with the Imperial College modelling, funded by you know who... yep I get models are always wrong but its not the first time Imperial College put out some questionable predictions. Basically, the whole thing was built on a turd and was always going to be one and leaves fellas like you and me pouring hours into making sense of yep a turd... Death is a part of life and if you really look at the cause of death stats in the USA and Brazil, what part of the pie chart is actually COVID?

Vic Local's picture
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Vic Local commented Wednesday, 3 Jun 2020 at 4:36pm

"It all started with the Imperial College modelling, funded by you know who"
No I don't now who provided the funding.**

** Please let is be George Soros. Please let is be George Soros. Please let is be George Soros

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

Pops's picture
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Pops commented Wednesday, 3 Jun 2020 at 4:40pm

"models are always wrong" ... does anyone else see the irony in that being written on a surf forecasting site?

He who hesitates is lost

Vic Local's picture
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Vic Local commented Wednesday, 3 Jun 2020 at 4:51pm

Nice one pops.
Any leader with any commonsense would collate a very large number of models, from the most knowledgable experts, and determine a most likely scenario based on current evidence. A commonsense leader would then err on the side of caution because the consequences of underestimating the potency of the virus is much more severe than the costs of overestimating the potency of the virus.
A sensible leader would then constantly listen to the experts and examine how accurate the modelling was, and evaluate more recent research.
Only a complete fucking moron would ignore the modelling and say the virus would "magically go away in spring".

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

views from the cockpit's picture
views from the cockpit's picture
views from the ... commented Thursday, 4 Jun 2020 at 4:48am

Love irony Pops!
Classic work TBB.
The world truly is Utopia on steroids.
BTW I don't swallow everything Auntie throws at me and I have written to them several times complaining of what I consider shoddy or unbalanced reporting.
The real bad news is that history has proven that individualism never works out in the long run.
We're all in it together either by choice or force or the "system" breaks down EVERY time.
But Im gonna run with it as long as I can- pity the next generations...

shoredump's picture
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shoredump commented Thursday, 4 Jun 2020 at 7:52am

Global death toll on our roads has reached 1.35 million annually says WHO

https://www.who.int/publications-detail/global-status-report-on-road-saf...

We could all drive under 40km on every road and save over a million lives every year (young ones too) but I fear the economy will get priority.

Yep, the economy will get priority over 1 million lives, each and every year

Crazy world we live in hey!

Vic Local's picture
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Vic Local commented Thursday, 4 Jun 2020 at 8:30am

"BTW I don't swallow everything Auntie throws at me and I have written to them several times complaining of what I consider shoddy or unbalanced reporting."
Is that you "views from the cockpit"?
I hope so, because it would explain where Shaun Micallef got his Mad as Hell "Casper Jonquist" character from. You two even look alike.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

truebluebasher's picture
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truebluebasher commented Sunday, 7 Jun 2020 at 1:36am

Oz Borderline Exemptions (Review) [ swellnet crew's covid-19 exclusive ]
Thanx to news hounds that helped sneak the crew in behind the iron curtains.

Intro: Oz borderz were sold as 'Rock Solid' which is code for "Heavily corrupted".
The following stats were randomly collated over 4-6 weeks of peak lockdown.
(To save on space, just ask for dates! Ok! ) Stats do ring true as to the peak period.

Note: (Exempted) Different by o/s / Isolation / Quarantine / Interstate /Transit mode.
Police do not release this information & there are no reports that hint they ever will.

Oz (Flight passengers) inbound (Exempted-6872) + ( Denied-262)
Cruise ships o/s inbound > Govt overrule > No Quarantine > Flights Out...
'International (Sex/Drugs) licenses' were waved thru all state Border blockades.

Oz Flight / Cruise pass > (Quarantine in non approved "Zero Ventilation" *****cells)
Guards + No air led to PTS / Suicide / Miscarriage / Mental breakdowns. (Horrific!)
All Medical staff said it was frightful, stressful & unhealthy & then got sacked.
CEO's + A-Listers + Moguls travelled most, but were exempt on 'medical grounds'.

International Flights Out (Govt are allowed flexi powers to rid o/s Viral Loads)
Govt exempts Corona Cruiseships quarantine > Mobilize 2-7 Flights out at a time.
We all saw Cruises being sent out to sea with viral patients by the dozen...See ya!

Aussie Jet-setters (Outbound)
Personal Business 514 exempt + 277 denied
Pre booked - Calendar 189 exempt + 92 denied
Total Outbound Flights 2,937 exempt + 1065 denied

Interstate Borders ( Note: Mining was exempt > Boosts WA FIFO figures)
Mining towns kicked up a stink + Mining CEO's dodge quarantine (To meet Pollies!)
WA flights inbound - 3000 exempt + 900 (Isolated)

WA (daily transit snap shot) : FIFO 216 / o/s crew 65 / Road 166
WA (Total Borders) 21,000 exempt + 68 denied

SA (o/s flights in) 22 exempt + 1 infection

NT. (Border Blockade/s) 11,000 exempt + 698 denied

Qld (Border Blockade/s) 238,529 exempt + 2848 denied

Border Politics...
15th June - NZ (border bubble) with Oz
Japan + UK have shown interest in Oz & other low cases destinations.

Interstate ACT wish to resume flights with Qld / SA

(Note: Opposition Pollies & News are grilling Leaders to reopen the borders!)

Here are some News Polls asking readers to keep the Borders Closed ...
(OZ : 77%) + WA 88% + Qld 78% + Vic 76% + NSW 70%
Political Polls to keep Border closed ( ALP 83% + Green 81% + LNP 75% )

The Wall campaigners might prefer the simple life & local fare without the fuss!
We do see that Mother Earth & animals are pretty stoked about events.
Social distancing pleased no end the 100'000's of STFAH village idiot dobberz.
Oz also suffered #1 Fines > Alcoholism > DV > Breakdowns > Racism.

tbb can't get outta the house, let alone make a run for the border...crew's call it is!

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo commented Sunday, 7 Jun 2020 at 8:55pm

Peter Fruitcake Evans is on 60 mins atm with his conspiracy theorys

Dale -Cooper's picture
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Dale -Cooper commented Monday, 8 Jun 2020 at 12:43pm

Who?

Next...

“The dog leg. That dog had four legs. One you found in my trunk. The other three went out with the information you're thinking about right now. Two people you don't want coming around here if anything bad happens to me.”

Vic Local's picture
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Vic Local commented Monday, 8 Jun 2020 at 2:11pm

NZ no longer has Covid 19 restrictions. Well played Jacinda, NZ medical pros, and all the kiwis who got their shit together.
Meanwhile, the USA and Brazil are basket cases. Where's Billythekid to defend his "let the virus spread as quickly as possible" opinion now?

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

inzider's picture
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inzider commented Monday, 8 Jun 2020 at 4:39pm

Yes well played jacinda. Now I'm unemployed trying to live off $300 dollars a week with two teenagers.
Well played ? , we saved some old people and some fat people and now we have a suicide spike a domestic violence spike and 5 homicides in the last week. Well played . Dont think so

Spuddups's picture
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Spuddups commented Monday, 8 Jun 2020 at 5:01pm

You're hard to please. I think it's an outstanding achievement. Would have been a crap tonne worse if we'd gone down the USD/Italy/UK road.

inzider's picture
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inzider commented Monday, 8 Jun 2020 at 5:15pm

Hard to please?
If the fucking dodgy cunt chinese govt hadn't been such a pack of arseholes this virus might have been contained somewhat better without fucking my life over so badly

saltyone's picture
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saltyone commented Monday, 8 Jun 2020 at 6:10pm

Well this is interesting ..

I spoke of this months ago during my research of the covid19 being mutated and having inserts after discovering this scientists research paper from back in January - interestingly it didn’t get media exposure and was kept quiet ..

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/338957445_Uncanny_similarity_of...

And now just recently scientists in Belgium are talking about inserts into covid and how it could only be man made . And now getting a lot of media exposure .

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidnikel/2020/06/07/norway-scientist-clai...

Vic Local's picture
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Vic Local commented Monday, 8 Jun 2020 at 6:15pm

Inzider, there's not a country in the world that's economy hasn't been crushed. You were getting a downturn no matter what. NZ is the gold standard in avoiding a medical crisis. If you can't recognise how well your government (and the NZ people) have handled this crisis, there's no pleasing you.
There's literally no country in the world that wouldn't want to be in NZ's position right now.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

saltyone's picture
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saltyone commented Monday, 8 Jun 2020 at 7:44pm

https://time.com/5847483/melinda-gates-covid-19/

Interesting when she says after health care workers black people will be targeted next .
How fitting after the blm protests with thousands upon thousands of black people in the streets. Prepare for second wave . And the subsequent “solution”.
Last minute reporting that George Floyd had covid19( tested positive 6weeks prior to arrest ) .

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saltyone commented Tuesday, 9 Jun 2020 at 12:18pm
shortenism's picture
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shortenism commented Tuesday, 9 Jun 2020 at 1:35pm

Interesting indeed saltyone.. You don't need to be a rocket scientist to see how the dots connect. How Floyd's death (RIP), made it through the gatekeeper to go 'viral' is the first question. Things just dont go viral unless the media gatekeepers want them to.. The Media went hardcore from COVID to Economic Armageddon, to race rioting and now back to....?? I didn't see that Floyd tested COVID positive,, Wonder what went on the poor bugga's death certificate...

Vic Local's picture
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Vic Local commented Tuesday, 9 Jun 2020 at 3:29pm

I know Shortenism, you're so onto this whole scam. I can't believe the lockdown laws in Australia weren't deemed unconstitutional because the government relies on the green constitution not the real one in the red binder. And anyway, all laws made after John Kerr ceased to be GG are invalid because he signed his resignation letter with his right hand when everyone knows he's left handed. They were probably unconstitutional anyway because of the secret amendments to the Magma Carta, but the left handed thing sealed the deal. Anyway, to get around the unconstitutional laws, all you have to do is shout "no consent" three times while holding up the crossed arm symbol. you know the one they use in "Deal or no deal". It's all a massive scam, and don't get me started on Bill Gates and his fucking tracing injections.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

shortenism's picture
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shortenism commented Tuesday, 9 Jun 2020 at 3:36pm

Udo, how you can call someone a fruitcake. I mean look at us, sharing our important thought provoking comments on life's most important issues via this crappy (I mean excellent!!) little website anonymously... Who's the fruitcake(s)? At least Pete is out there, sharing his knowledge and thoughts, being real and emotional. Power to him!!!!

shortenism's picture
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shortenism commented Tuesday, 9 Jun 2020 at 3:45pm

"There's not a country in the world that's economy hasn't been crushed". Now read this out loud to yourself 50 times Vic..... Seeing the consistency?

saltyone's picture
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saltyone commented Tuesday, 9 Jun 2020 at 3:50pm

Shortenism - yep infuriating all of it and more shitstorm to come no doubt . “Getting Past the Gatekeeper” -yeah good point considering the censorship at the moment .. hence why I think it was all planned even the riots .. the perfect distraction / divide/storm .. I would say thousands of $$ thrown at it if not millions . The cop has been sentenced and still riots going on. Plus too much that is suss -no cpr done at scene / area wasn’t contained as crime scene / Floyd’s autopsy showed fentanyl/methamphetamines/cannabis. And he had heart disease, sickle cell, hypertension and SARS cov . He was a known criminal . Easy target I say . Set up. Used to work with cop . Some say he is still alive . Which also wouldn’t surprise me . Check out this footage at his funeral or “funeral” ..
https://youtu.be/6Vph7pc0vFA
Seriously ??

Vic Local's picture
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Vic Local commented Tuesday, 9 Jun 2020 at 4:11pm

Have you seen how easily the pall bearers lifted the "gentle giant's" coffin? There was obviously no body in it.
I heard George was paid $6.72 mil and given a house in Hawaii for his role in the whole thing. The crisis actors who played the role of witnesses were very well remunerated too, but they obviously had to sign a confidentiality clause. The downside for them is, their acting careers are on hold unless they do some sort of super hero roles behind a mask. Some obviously had to get tattoos removed too. The truth will come out eventually, probably get uncovered by that Alex Jones bloke.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

shortenism's picture
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shortenism commented Tuesday, 9 Jun 2020 at 4:16pm

Far out, were the masks to hide laughing... It all sounds/looks very suss saltyone from the time it happened. Given the sequence of events, you would have to consider it was a further play to distract, divide and just continue the low vibrational fear mongering.. The motive? Well its shut down further protests and keeping borders closed here in Oz, so you can only imagine it furthered this everywhere.. Just plays into the hands....

Vic Local's picture
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Vic Local commented Tuesday, 9 Jun 2020 at 4:37pm

And the worst thing is, Antifa, paid for by Soros, are in cahoots with the Trump organisation to lock down the USA. Those Machiavellian forces don't understand the CCP are double crossing everyone and are realising phase two of the so-called "coronavirus". And who wins in the end? That's right, the Rothschilds. I can't believe people can't join the dots.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

Dale -Cooper's picture
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Dale -Cooper commented Tuesday, 9 Jun 2020 at 4:57pm

I blame rugby league...

“The dog leg. That dog had four legs. One you found in my trunk. The other three went out with the information you're thinking about right now. Two people you don't want coming around here if anything bad happens to me.”

Vic Local's picture
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Vic Local commented Tuesday, 9 Jun 2020 at 5:08pm

You mean Rugba-league which we all know is a code word for you know what.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

Blowin's picture
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Blowin commented Tuesday, 9 Jun 2020 at 5:19pm

Vic Local.....I wouldn’t go bleating about the gullibility of others if I was you. Just yesterday you were gloating about a White supremacist attack on a BLM protest which turned out to be a disgruntled Mexican.

Vic Local's picture
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Vic Local commented Tuesday, 9 Jun 2020 at 5:35pm

Whatever blowin.
the guy who drove his car into the protest and shot someone was a self professed KKK leader. Here's the BBC report.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52973398

I can't wait to see your source saying the guy wasn't a white supremecist but a "disgruntled Mexican".

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

shortenism's picture
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shortenism commented Tuesday, 9 Jun 2020 at 5:54pm

Hey Vic, have a look at this, Senator Bill Heffernan Senate Enquiry speech. "Child pedophilia rife in Australian Judicial & Political System, with a list of 28 persons of interest including an ex-PM... Fast track to 6:05 and be ready to be blown away https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Wc1AdMu-VWC8rKdiXEifl-Rti4bRntkF/view

Excuse me if i'm a little bemused to trust our political leaders and law makers in their motivations.

Vic Local's picture
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Vic Local commented Tuesday, 9 Jun 2020 at 5:55pm

Oops. My bad. I got my crazies mixed up. The KKK guy was in Virginia not Seattle. See that Blowin. I admit my mistakes and correct them ASAP. I don't try and bluff my way out of it.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

inzider's picture
inzider's picture
inzider commented Tuesday, 9 Jun 2020 at 6:02pm

Coming back to the covid induced recession , NZ has done a great job deleting covid and covid has done a great job deleting my job. Now I get to survive on $330 a week with 2 teenagers. Fuck yeah stoked to be in NZ on such an amazing welfare system.
You dont know how lucky you have it in oz

saltyone's picture
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saltyone commented Tuesday, 9 Jun 2020 at 7:24pm