COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster

Craig's picture
Craig started the topic in Wednesday, 18 Mar 2020 at 7:44pm

I've created a spreadsheet forecast which I'll update as we go..

There's also a website with live running data.. https://sites.google.com/view/stayhomeaustralia

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 2:05pm

TD, what about the effect on serious illness/death?
Is that longer lasting according to your understanding?

burleigh's picture
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burleigh Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 2:05pm
overthefalls's picture
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overthefalls Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 2:20pm
burleigh wrote:

https://www.instagram.com/p/CZQesM9PynA/?utm_medium=copy_link

Funny, but a bogus analogy from somebody who thinks he knows better than everybody else because he was a great basketball player. Similar ilk to Pat Cash.

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tylerdurden Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 2:21pm

Long term side effects obviously unknown Freeride. Some rapid onset adverse events can have lifelong consequences, like the clotting for example.
Neurological issues, malignancy, fertility effects will remain to be seen

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 2:25pm

I mean the effects on reducing illness/death from Covid.

Does that endure past 3 months according to your understanding?

Stok's picture
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Stok Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 2:46pm
burleigh wrote:

https://www.instagram.com/p/CZQesM9PynA/?utm_medium=copy_link

Nah....we don't have lots of other forms of protection, but do have other forms of contraception.
Also, we figured out how pregancy works quite a while ago. Covid is novel.

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tylerdurden Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 2:52pm

Not sure Freeride. Some Israeli scientists have apparently recommended against a second booster (4th dose).
At the start when they said the vaccines last 12 months then you need a booster I believed them.
At each stage when they bought forward the timeframe from 6 to 5 to 4 to 3 months I believed them.
I guess soon we’ll work both out: how long the boosters last and whether the 4th dose is worth it

Roadkill's picture
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Roadkill Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 3:07pm
burleigh wrote:

https://www.instagram.com/p/CZQesM9PynA/?utm_medium=copy_link

This clown would probably try and compare COVID with polio. Like, only a total idiot would.

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indo-dreaming Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 3:18pm

The third shot (1st booster) is suppose to give you about 70% effectiveness but after 3 months you are down to 50% effectiveness, then 4 months down to 40% etc.

I think the 4th shot 2nd booster pushes you up to 90% effectiveness for a while

Recent article on it

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2022/01/19/1071809356/covid-bo...

burleigh's picture
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burleigh Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 3:19pm

Love it how you fools get so triggered by an instagram post. yet this morning i posted about a 7 year old with pericarditis including the report number and there was silence.

Roadkill's picture
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Roadkill Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 3:25pm

You're talking yourself up, burleigh. Nothing you say or post triggers anyone on here.
It's more.....we just laugh at how stupid you actually are :)

Craig's picture
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Craig Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 3:26pm

This has to take the cake! Fark me just seen on a friends FB..

And what's a blood cloth?

Stok's picture
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Stok Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 3:31pm

Haha! Thanks for sharing Craig, that's as good as it gets!

Imagine how afraid you must be day to day, thinking you could breathe in spike proteins from the 90% vaccinated population.....

Also - LOL - how do you almost enter a coma?

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 3:34pm

For sure that’s Fake news, Craig.

That’s as much made up bullsh1t as when Blindboy tried to claim that naturally aquired immunity was less effective than the vaccines at suppressing Covid.

How can a science teacher hate science so much?

Just more covid misinformation to wade through from the Covid Cultists. When their shouty declarations are routinely disproven, they pretend it never happened.

Stok's picture
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Stok Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 3:36pm
burleigh wrote:

Love it how you fools get so triggered by an instagram post. yet this morning i posted about a 7 year old with pericarditis including the report number and there was silence.

Bogut has been a constant whinger right thoughout the whole event of covid. He's the epitome of self centred-ness. He frequently posts low brow memes which are plain wrong and get cheap laughs out of similar minded folk to him - all while covid rampages around the world.

Of course it's farked up to imagine any young child having a reaction such as that, it's not something any of us are really in a position to discuss, and it certainly shouldn't be something to use as a basis for your disregard of the seriousness of covid and the neccessity of vaccinations.

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flollo Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 3:37pm
indo-dreaming wrote:

The third shot (1st booster) is suppose to give you about 70% effectiveness but after 3 months you are down to 50% effectiveness, then 4 months down to 40% etc.

I think the 4th shot 2nd booster pushes you up to 90% effectiveness for a while

Recent article on it

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2022/01/19/1071809356/covid-bo...

This is still not bad, I have a flu shot every year and I think it's about 50%.

Roadkill's picture
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Roadkill Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 3:41pm
Blowin wrote:

For sure that’s Fake news, Craig.

That’s as much made up bullsh1t as when Blindboy tried to claim that naturally aquired immunity was less effective than the vaccines at suppressing Covid.

How can a science teacher hate science so much?

Just more covid misinformation to wade through from the Covid Cultists. When their shouty declarations are routinely disproven, they pretend it never happened.

How come when Robo posted 3/4 family members had developed cancer from the vaccine...you never called it out as "made up bullshit", blowin?

That gets a pass but craig's post gets called out?
(how very selective of you)

Craig's picture
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Craig Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 3:41pm

Oh wait, it's been topped.. I quit.

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gsco Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 3:54pm

they are funny, need more of that stuff in here

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 3:51pm
Roadkill wrote:
Blowin wrote:

For sure that’s Fake news, Craig.

That’s as much made up bullsh1t as when Blindboy tried to claim that naturally aquired immunity was less effective than the vaccines at suppressing Covid.

How can a science teacher hate science so much?

Just more covid misinformation to wade through from the Covid Cultists. When their shouty declarations are routinely disproven, they pretend it never happened.

How come when Robo posted 3/4 family members had developed cancer from the vaccine...you never called it out as "made up bullshit", blowin?

That gets a pass but craig's post gets called out?
(how very selective of you)

Because Robo presented his as anecdotal whilst Blindboy presented his as established and indisputable scientific fact. He then used his “facts” to beat people over the head.

He even said those who were Anti - Science questioned the ridiculous notion that the millions-of-years-old naturally aquired immunity was bettered by a hastily invented vaccine which had underachiever at every measure.

He also declared that those who questioned his lie were dangerous to public health and should be officially silenced.

That’s the difference between Robo and Sicko.

Roadkill's picture
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Roadkill Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 3:54pm
Blowin wrote:
Roadkill wrote:
Blowin wrote:

For sure that’s Fake news, Craig.

That’s as much made up bullsh1t as when Blindboy tried to claim that naturally aquired immunity was less effective than the vaccines at suppressing Covid.

How can a science teacher hate science so much?

Just more covid misinformation to wade through from the Covid Cultists. When their shouty declarations are routinely disproven, they pretend it never happened.

How come when Robo posted 3/4 family members had developed cancer from the vaccine...you never called it out as "made up bullshit", blowin?

That gets a pass but craig's post gets called out?
(how very selective of you)

Because Robo presented his as anecdotal whilst Blindboy presented his as established and indisputable scientific fact. He then used his “facts” to beat people over the head.

He even said those who were Anti - Science questioned the ridiculous notion that the millions-of-years-old naturally aquired immunity was bettered by a hastily invented vaccine which had underachiever at every measure.

He also declared that those who questioned his lie were dangerous to public health and should be officially silenced.

That’s the difference between Robo and Sicko.

More it suits your agenda...all good. Carry on.

ps, I was talking about Craig's post getting called out. Yet you focused onBB and ignored answering. As usual.

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 3:54pm
Craig wrote:

Oh wait, it's been topped.. I quit.

Why would they want to make a big deal out of demonstrating the power of their weapon and then not tell anyone what they’d done?

The Empire made no secret of the Death Star’s power to blow up planets. They were stoked on its performance. Rightfully so! Whatever your feelings about Alderan, the Empire sure showed the rebels how to build a fucking space station.

overthefalls's picture
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overthefalls Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 3:59pm

Is natural immunity more effective than vaccines in preventing serious illness due to covid? There’s not a great deal of evidence either way due to complex variables.

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blackers Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 4:00pm
Craig wrote:

Oh wait, it's been topped.. I quit.

No ash? My arse.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-60065767

Craig's picture
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Craig Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 4:08pm

Yeah holes all over that post, not even going to waste any time on it.

Craig's picture
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Craig Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 4:09pm

They couldn't land the relief planes because Ash kept gathering on the runway!

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 4:37pm
overthefalls wrote:

Is natural immunity more effective than vaccines in preventing serious illness due to covid? There’s not a great deal of evidence either way due to complex variables.

You’ll have to take that up with the US CDC who finally admitted it to be so a few days ago.

Roadkill's picture
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Roadkill Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 4:42pm
overthefalls wrote:

Is natural immunity more effective than vaccines in preventing serious illness due to covid? There’s not a great deal of evidence either way due to complex variables.

Protection with booster shots offers better protection than natural immunity.

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 4:45pm
Roadkill wrote:
overthefalls wrote:

Is natural immunity more effective than vaccines in preventing serious illness due to covid? There’s not a great deal of evidence either way due to complex variables.

Protection with booster shots offers better protection than natural immunity.

Lol.

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 4:48pm

Just when you think it can’t get any more fanciful and ridiculous, just when you’re certain that the public is going to simultaneously pissing themselves laughing cause they’ve all just realise they’ve been had, you get this stuff….

“Health minister Greg Hunt has stated that those infected with Omicron will still need to get booster shots:

“If you have had omicron, but the simple message is – you still need to be boosted. We want all Australians to come forward to be boosted and once you cleared your symptoms, then it’s appropriate for you to come forward so long as you are eligible for your dose.”

Lolololol

Give it up you silly hunt!

overthefalls's picture
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overthefalls Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 4:49pm
Blowin wrote:
overthefalls wrote:

Is natural immunity more effective than vaccines in preventing serious illness due to covid? There’s not a great deal of evidence either way due to complex variables.

You’ll have to take that up with the US CDC who finally admitted it to be so a few days ago.

Thanks, Blowin. Could you provide a link?

Roadkill's picture
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Roadkill Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 4:51pm

Protection is also increased if a no vaxxed person gets covid and then has a booster once recovered.

Supafreak's picture
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Supafreak Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 4:53pm

monkeyboy's picture
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monkeyboy Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 4:56pm

How are the authorities going to get the booster numbers up....mmmmmm I wonder.

Ben Harding's picture
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Ben Harding Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 4:57pm
overthefalls wrote:

Is natural immunity more effective than vaccines in preventing serious illness due to covid? There’s not a great deal of evidence either way due to complex variables.

Funny you mention that.. I was at my doctors this morn' and he said there was? Something to do with the number of pathogens you build immunity to after having caught the virus over injecting the smaller number of spike proteins within the vaccine. He referenced the CDC on that one. The crazy part about our catch up was he told me that he has had two shots of pfizer and two shots of AZ! I asked why the hell did you do that. He said he is not afraid of them nor concerned about the risks, and that he was going to have to take them anyway, so why not? Hard to argue so I didn't bother asking anymore about it. Also said that if you give everyone in the world panadol some crew will keel over, it's just the way it is with medicine.

The very next sentence he said about a month prior he realized his family are displaying Covid symptoms; wife has a cough, the kids are sick and he isn't. He gets tested and the results come back +. Absolutely no symptoms for him. His family display the classic ones but nothing serious. Shitload of information (hard to know what to make of it all) to take in this morning haha and left feeling even more confused in a light hearted way though. The only thing that he doesn't agree with is the vaccine mandates. Interesting morning for sure. I enjoyed the candour from him.

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overthefalls Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 5:00pm

From what I’ve read, the CDC stated that natural immunity was more effective when delta was the dominant strain and that the effectiveness of natural immunity with omicron is not fully understood yet. The CDC also warned that both vaccines and natural immunity have declined with the new dominant variant.

Stok's picture
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Stok Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 5:02pm

Twisted Sister have been pretty vocal about telling the anti-everything freedom at all costs brigade to NOT use their song.

Lead singer also had covid, and was glad he was vaccinated.

Stok's picture
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Stok Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 5:04pm
Blowin wrote:

.......finally admitted........

Is it just me, or is this phrase used like 100 times a day by the USA far right anti vax crew?

The other classic one is 'What we've known all along'.

For example:

'The Biden administration finally admitted what we've know all along, that freedom rocks, and no one should take any medicine or vaccine ever'.

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 5:09pm
Stok wrote:
Blowin wrote:

.......finally admitted........

Is it just me, or is this phrase used like 100 times a day by the USA far right anti vax crew?

The other classic one is 'What we've known all along'.

For example:

'The Biden administration finally admitted what we've know all along, that freedom rocks, and no one should take any medicine or vaccine ever'.

It’s just you.

Congrats on another attempt to delegitimise a post without referring to the actual topic. A personal specialty of yours!

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 5:12pm
overthefalls wrote:
Blowin wrote:
overthefalls wrote:

Is natural immunity more effective than vaccines in preventing serious illness due to covid? There’s not a great deal of evidence either way due to complex variables.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7104e1.htm

You’ll have to take that up with the US CDC who finally admitted it to be so a few days ago.

Thanks, Blowin. Could you provide a link?

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7104e1.htm

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 5:13pm
Roadkill wrote:

Protection is also increased if a no vaxxed person gets covid and then has a booster once recovered.

Seriously bloke, you’re so broken that every time you post all I hear you saying is “ It rubs the lotion on its skin or it gets the hose again “.

Roadkill's picture
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Roadkill Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 5:14pm
Blowin wrote:
Roadkill wrote:

Protection is also increased if a no vaxxed person gets covid and then has a booster once recovered.

Seriously bloke, you’re so broken that every time you post all I hear you saying is “ It rubs the lotion on its skin or it gets the hose again “.

funny, when you talk all I hear is lies.
whatever..lol

Supafreak's picture
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Supafreak Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 5:28pm
Stok wrote:

Twisted Sister have been pretty vocal about telling the anti-everything freedom at all costs brigade to NOT use their song.

Lead singer also had covid, and was glad he was vaccinated.

Do you understand that the truckies protest is about mandates not vaccination ? The majority of truckies are vaccinated, it has been stated that this is anti - mandates not anti- vaccination, weird how you can’t figure this out .

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 5:31pm
Roadkill wrote:
Blowin wrote:
Roadkill wrote:

Protection is also increased if a no vaxxed person gets covid and then has a booster once recovered.

Seriously bloke, you’re so broken that every time you post all I hear you saying is “ It rubs the lotion on its skin or it gets the hose again “.

funny, when you talk all I hear is lies.
whatever..lol

Name a single lie I’ve said on this thread.

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 5:34pm
aaron61 wrote:

Hmm.

https://www.theblaze.com/news/fauci-children-ages-4-and-under-will-likel...

Fauci told people that you got AIDS by being in the same room as someone infected and through normal contact , not exchanging bodily fluids.

Fauci has been a lying clown since dot.

burleigh's picture
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burleigh Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 5:35pm
Roadkill wrote:
overthefalls wrote:

Is natural immunity more effective than vaccines in preventing serious illness due to covid? There’s not a great deal of evidence either way due to complex variables.

Protection with booster shots offers better protection than natural immunity.

Hahahahahahaha ok you gronk

The real Donald Trump's picture
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The real Donald... Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 5:37pm

NEIL YOUNG - When you are SO WOKE... you cancel yourself. !!

pmsl .

***Trigger Warning.

I hope Neil Young will remember... southern man don't need him around anyhow,

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 5:37pm
aaron61 wrote:

Hmm.

https://www.theblaze.com/news/fauci-children-ages-4-and-under-will-likel...

Never forget that the initial justification for injecting kids was to prevent them from spreading it to parents. Now that the “vaccines prevent transmission“ scam has been walked back …..what’s the justification for injecting kids?