COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster

Craig's picture
Craig started the topic in Wednesday, 18 Mar 2020 at 7:44pm

I've created a spreadsheet forecast which I'll update as we go..

There's also a website with live running data.. https://sites.google.com/view/stayhomeaustralia

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 3:54pm
Craig wrote:

Oh wait, it's been topped.. I quit.

Why would they want to make a big deal out of demonstrating the power of their weapon and then not tell anyone what they’d done?

The Empire made no secret of the Death Star’s power to blow up planets. They were stoked on its performance. Rightfully so! Whatever your feelings about Alderan, the Empire sure showed the rebels how to build a fucking space station.

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overthefalls Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 3:59pm

Is natural immunity more effective than vaccines in preventing serious illness due to covid? There’s not a great deal of evidence either way due to complex variables.

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blackers Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 4:00pm
Craig wrote:

Oh wait, it's been topped.. I quit.

No ash? My arse.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-60065767

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Craig Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 4:08pm

Yeah holes all over that post, not even going to waste any time on it.

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Craig Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 4:09pm

They couldn't land the relief planes because Ash kept gathering on the runway!

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Blowin Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 4:37pm
overthefalls wrote:

Is natural immunity more effective than vaccines in preventing serious illness due to covid? There’s not a great deal of evidence either way due to complex variables.

You’ll have to take that up with the US CDC who finally admitted it to be so a few days ago.

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Roadkill Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 4:42pm
overthefalls wrote:

Is natural immunity more effective than vaccines in preventing serious illness due to covid? There’s not a great deal of evidence either way due to complex variables.

Protection with booster shots offers better protection than natural immunity.

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 4:45pm
Roadkill wrote:
overthefalls wrote:

Is natural immunity more effective than vaccines in preventing serious illness due to covid? There’s not a great deal of evidence either way due to complex variables.

Protection with booster shots offers better protection than natural immunity.

Lol.

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Blowin Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 4:48pm

Just when you think it can’t get any more fanciful and ridiculous, just when you’re certain that the public is going to simultaneously pissing themselves laughing cause they’ve all just realise they’ve been had, you get this stuff….

“Health minister Greg Hunt has stated that those infected with Omicron will still need to get booster shots:

“If you have had omicron, but the simple message is – you still need to be boosted. We want all Australians to come forward to be boosted and once you cleared your symptoms, then it’s appropriate for you to come forward so long as you are eligible for your dose.”

Lolololol

Give it up you silly hunt!

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overthefalls Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 4:49pm
Blowin wrote:
overthefalls wrote:

Is natural immunity more effective than vaccines in preventing serious illness due to covid? There’s not a great deal of evidence either way due to complex variables.

You’ll have to take that up with the US CDC who finally admitted it to be so a few days ago.

Thanks, Blowin. Could you provide a link?

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Roadkill Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 4:51pm

Protection is also increased if a no vaxxed person gets covid and then has a booster once recovered.

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Supafreak Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 4:53pm

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monkeyboy Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 4:56pm

How are the authorities going to get the booster numbers up....mmmmmm I wonder.

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Ben Harding Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 4:57pm
overthefalls wrote:

Is natural immunity more effective than vaccines in preventing serious illness due to covid? There’s not a great deal of evidence either way due to complex variables.

Funny you mention that.. I was at my doctors this morn' and he said there was? Something to do with the number of pathogens you build immunity to after having caught the virus over injecting the smaller number of spike proteins within the vaccine. He referenced the CDC on that one. The crazy part about our catch up was he told me that he has had two shots of pfizer and two shots of AZ! I asked why the hell did you do that. He said he is not afraid of them nor concerned about the risks, and that he was going to have to take them anyway, so why not? Hard to argue so I didn't bother asking anymore about it. Also said that if you give everyone in the world panadol some crew will keel over, it's just the way it is with medicine.

The very next sentence he said about a month prior he realized his family are displaying Covid symptoms; wife has a cough, the kids are sick and he isn't. He gets tested and the results come back +. Absolutely no symptoms for him. His family display the classic ones but nothing serious. Shitload of information (hard to know what to make of it all) to take in this morning haha and left feeling even more confused in a light hearted way though. The only thing that he doesn't agree with is the vaccine mandates. Interesting morning for sure. I enjoyed the candour from him.

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overthefalls Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 5:00pm

From what I’ve read, the CDC stated that natural immunity was more effective when delta was the dominant strain and that the effectiveness of natural immunity with omicron is not fully understood yet. The CDC also warned that both vaccines and natural immunity have declined with the new dominant variant.

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Stok Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 5:02pm

Twisted Sister have been pretty vocal about telling the anti-everything freedom at all costs brigade to NOT use their song.

Lead singer also had covid, and was glad he was vaccinated.

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Stok Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 5:04pm
Blowin wrote:

.......finally admitted........

Is it just me, or is this phrase used like 100 times a day by the USA far right anti vax crew?

The other classic one is 'What we've known all along'.

For example:

'The Biden administration finally admitted what we've know all along, that freedom rocks, and no one should take any medicine or vaccine ever'.

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 5:09pm
Stok wrote:
Blowin wrote:

.......finally admitted........

Is it just me, or is this phrase used like 100 times a day by the USA far right anti vax crew?

The other classic one is 'What we've known all along'.

For example:

'The Biden administration finally admitted what we've know all along, that freedom rocks, and no one should take any medicine or vaccine ever'.

It’s just you.

Congrats on another attempt to delegitimise a post without referring to the actual topic. A personal specialty of yours!

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Blowin Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 5:12pm
overthefalls wrote:
Blowin wrote:
overthefalls wrote:

Is natural immunity more effective than vaccines in preventing serious illness due to covid? There’s not a great deal of evidence either way due to complex variables.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7104e1.htm

You’ll have to take that up with the US CDC who finally admitted it to be so a few days ago.

Thanks, Blowin. Could you provide a link?

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7104e1.htm

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Blowin Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 5:13pm
Roadkill wrote:

Protection is also increased if a no vaxxed person gets covid and then has a booster once recovered.

Seriously bloke, you’re so broken that every time you post all I hear you saying is “ It rubs the lotion on its skin or it gets the hose again “.

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Roadkill Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 5:14pm
Blowin wrote:
Roadkill wrote:

Protection is also increased if a no vaxxed person gets covid and then has a booster once recovered.

Seriously bloke, you’re so broken that every time you post all I hear you saying is “ It rubs the lotion on its skin or it gets the hose again “.

funny, when you talk all I hear is lies.
whatever..lol

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Supafreak Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 5:28pm
Stok wrote:

Twisted Sister have been pretty vocal about telling the anti-everything freedom at all costs brigade to NOT use their song.

Lead singer also had covid, and was glad he was vaccinated.

Do you understand that the truckies protest is about mandates not vaccination ? The majority of truckies are vaccinated, it has been stated that this is anti - mandates not anti- vaccination, weird how you can’t figure this out .

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 5:31pm
Roadkill wrote:
Blowin wrote:
Roadkill wrote:

Protection is also increased if a no vaxxed person gets covid and then has a booster once recovered.

Seriously bloke, you’re so broken that every time you post all I hear you saying is “ It rubs the lotion on its skin or it gets the hose again “.

funny, when you talk all I hear is lies.
whatever..lol

Name a single lie I’ve said on this thread.

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Blowin Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 5:34pm
aaron61 wrote:

Hmm.

https://www.theblaze.com/news/fauci-children-ages-4-and-under-will-likel...

Fauci told people that you got AIDS by being in the same room as someone infected and through normal contact , not exchanging bodily fluids.

Fauci has been a lying clown since dot.

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burleigh Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 5:35pm
Roadkill wrote:
overthefalls wrote:

Is natural immunity more effective than vaccines in preventing serious illness due to covid? There’s not a great deal of evidence either way due to complex variables.

Protection with booster shots offers better protection than natural immunity.

Hahahahahahaha ok you gronk

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The real Donald... Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 5:37pm

NEIL YOUNG - When you are SO WOKE... you cancel yourself. !!

pmsl .

***Trigger Warning.

I hope Neil Young will remember... southern man don't need him around anyhow,

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Blowin Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 5:37pm
aaron61 wrote:

Hmm.

https://www.theblaze.com/news/fauci-children-ages-4-and-under-will-likel...

Never forget that the initial justification for injecting kids was to prevent them from spreading it to parents. Now that the “vaccines prevent transmission“ scam has been walked back …..what’s the justification for injecting kids?

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Stok Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 5:37pm
Supafreak wrote:
Stok wrote:

Twisted Sister have been pretty vocal about telling the anti-everything freedom at all costs brigade to NOT use their song.

Lead singer also had covid, and was glad he was vaccinated.

Do you understand that the truckies protest is about mandates not vaccination ? The majority of truckies are vaccinated, it has been stated that this is anti - mandates not anti- vaccination, weird how you can’t figure this out .

I didn't actually say anything about that, you'll see I referred to them as the 'anti everything' brigade.

I say this essentially because this collective of people were anti mask, anti lockdown, anti vax, anti mandate etc etc. Sure, there probably were some people (like you) who were pro all of the above, but now are anti mandate, but for the most part, I'd guess that the anti everything crew have been there from the start - wishing and praying the pandemic will just disappear and not wanting to make any sacrifice or changes to their lives.

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aaron61 Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 6:02pm

Insert "Following ze orders" joke.

How convenient.

https://greatgameindia.com/covid-rules-software-error/

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The real Donald... Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 6:20pm

DO NOT BE ALARMED.

Australian Defence Force personnel will conduct counter-terrorism training in the greater Perth metropolitan area of Western Australia from February to December 2022.

The training will be conducted during the day and night.

The public should not be alarmed if they see or hear military watercraft, vehicles, unmanned aerial surveillance systems and military personnel carrying weapons.

https://www.army.gov.au/our-news/army-exercises-alerts/australian-defenc...

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Stok Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 6:23pm

Lol

Hey Blowin, first sentence from Aaron's link:

'It has finally been revealed that the unjust covid rules...'

Like it's been known all along, by the SMART ones. What a joke.

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Michael Adam Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 6:34pm

Anyone else out there equally concerned about the dangers of the virus as they are about the danger of government overreach and corruption or just me?

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Michael Adam Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 6:36pm

Concern over “terrorism” is close to zero.

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groundswell Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 6:41pm

Yeah lol what happened to all the terrorists and alkidha however you spell it...?

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Supafreak Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 6:45pm

Stok, I’m anti- mandates have been since day one . With lockdowns, I thought they were necessary at the beginning but not towards the end when communities 1000klms from Sydney were locked down because of an outbreak , plus someone would test positive visiting and suddenly 100,000 got locked down for a week or more with no other transmissions. It happened a few times in the northern rivers and many businesses needlessly suffered. Nurses that caught and recovered from covid threatened with losing their jobs if they didn’t get vaccinated was not really following the science . Japans government in my opinion has handled this pandemic way better than our mob , plus doctors there are allowed to be doctors and treat patients without fear of being struck off . We now live in a country where the government dictates how you are treated. Doctor patient relationship took a dive in this pandemic. Government mandates for aged care made sense in the beginning but now are pointless . You can throw me in whatever basket you like , your lists are pathetic.

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gromfull Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 7:04pm
Supafreak wrote:

Stok, I’m anti- mandates have been since day one . With lockdowns, I thought they were necessary at the beginning but not towards the end when communities 1000klms from Sydney were locked down because of an outbreak , plus someone would test positive visiting and suddenly 100,000 got locked down for a week or more with no other transmissions. It happened a few times in the northern rivers and many businesses needlessly suffered. Nurses that caught and recovered from covid threatened with losing their jobs if they didn’t get vaccinated was not really following the science . Japans government in my opinion has handled this pandemic way better than our mob , plus doctors there are allowed to be doctors and treat patients without fear of being struck off . We now live in a country where the government dictates how you are treated. Doctor patient relationship took a dive in this pandemic. Government mandates for aged care made sense in the beginning but now are pointless . You can throw me in whatever basket you like , your lists are pathetic.

couldnt agree with more superfreak, we live in the same area , must be the beautiful clear air and water that makes us feel this way, and think with a bit of common sense

there are so many red flags that i cant believe that people dont want to question the way this has been delt with and constant pressure of getting vaccinated, fark the stats even when put in peoples faces, go against their narrative, now going after the kids, the parents that are following suit im shocked by it all.
i watched my kid who is 10 flick it in 24hrs, that was all the proof i needed to know that another red flag has been proven, hope your getting plenty of waves

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overthefalls Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 7:13pm

Blowin, this is from the link you provided:

“Vaccination protected against COVID-19 and related hospitalization, and surviving a previous infection protected against a reinfection and related hospitalization during periods of predominantly Alpha and Delta variant transmission, before the emergence of Omicron; evidence suggests decreased protection from both vaccine- and infection-induced immunity against Omicron infections”

“Initial infection among unvaccinated persons increases risk for serious illness, hospitalization, long-term sequelae, and death; by November 30, 2021, approximately 130,781 residents of California and New York had died from COVID-19. Thus, vaccination remains the safest and primary strategy to prevent SARS-CoV-2 infections, associated complications, and onward transmission.”

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gromfull Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 7:19pm
Blowin wrote:

Just when you think it can’t get any more fanciful and ridiculous, just when you’re certain that the public is going to simultaneously pissing themselves laughing cause they’ve all just realise they’ve been had, you get this stuff….

“Health minister Greg Hunt has stated that those infected with Omicron will still need to get booster shots:

“If you have had omicron, but the simple message is – you still need to be boosted. We want all Australians to come forward to be boosted and once you cleared your symptoms, then it’s appropriate for you to come forward so long as you are eligible for your dose.”

Lolololol

Give it up you silly hunt!

Gooday blowie, id like to know how they know who had what variant, because when you test positive they dont tell you what variant you have, so i asked my doctor, he said they dont know and couldnt answer me as to why the dont tell you,

do they really know how to identify the different variants
what are they acheiving if they do know in not tell the patient as to what variant they have

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gragagan Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 7:27pm
groundswell wrote:

Yeah lol what happened to all the terrorists and alkidha however you spell it...?

Isis? The fake islamic "terrorist" group set up to give the US and it's allies (us) an excuse to attempt to overthrow the Syrian government? They're not needed for the time being

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aaron61 Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 7:31pm
Stok wrote:

Lol

Hey Blowin, first sentence from Aaron's link:

'It has finally been revealed that the unjust covid rules...'

Like it's been known all along, by the SMART ones. What a joke.

Yes, fucking hilarious.

The “pandemic of the unvaccinated” was caused by a computer glitch. That was the conclusion of the Health Minister of Germany Karl Lauterbach, after months of vilifying the unvaccinated in the nation’s second largest city, Hamburg.

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Stok Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 7:32pm
Supafreak wrote:

Stok, I’m anti- mandates have been since day one . With lockdowns, I thought they were necessary at the beginning but not towards the end when communities 1000klms from Sydney were locked down because of an outbreak , plus someone would test positive visiting and suddenly 100,000 got locked down for a week or more with no other transmissions. It happened a few times in the northern rivers and many businesses needlessly suffered. Nurses that caught and recovered from covid threatened with losing their jobs if they didn’t get vaccinated was not really following the science . Japans government in my opinion has handled this pandemic way better than our mob , plus doctors there are allowed to be doctors and treat patients without fear of being struck off . We now live in a country where the government dictates how you are treated. Doctor patient relationship took a dive in this pandemic. Government mandates for aged care made sense in the beginning but now are pointless . You can throw me in whatever basket you like , your lists are pathetic.

Ok Supa, makes sense, your position is clear. I dont really like mandates either, but I don't see Australia getting anywhere near the vax rates it got without them. I do liken them to the many mandates on vaccinations we already have, and believe we wouldn't have needed them if there wasn't such a pushback on all levels of action taken by governments to reduce the effects covid within community.

I also know Japan and Australia are vastly, vastly different, I'd be interested to know the vax rates, general support of government and 'word on the street' as to how people really feel there. We're there protests?

Like it or loathe it Australia is and always has been a nanny state, where the value of life is very, very high. The rules, red tape, restrictions, fines, high minimum wage, Medicare etc etc all indicate that our governments are set up to value human life very highly. I believe fundamentally, this is the basis of the strategies we've taken against covid, and the toughness of the restrictions is a response to the unruliness of Australians as a whole.

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indo-dreaming Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 7:53pm
gromfull wrote:
Blowin wrote:

Just when you think it can’t get any more fanciful and ridiculous, just when you’re certain that the public is going to simultaneously pissing themselves laughing cause they’ve all just realise they’ve been had, you get this stuff….

“Health minister Greg Hunt has stated that those infected with Omicron will still need to get booster shots:

“If you have had omicron, but the simple message is – you still need to be boosted. We want all Australians to come forward to be boosted and once you cleared your symptoms, then it’s appropriate for you to come forward so long as you are eligible for your dose.”

Lolololol

Give it up you silly hunt!

Gooday blowie, id like to know how they know who had what variant, because when you test positive they dont tell you what variant you have, so i asked my doctor, he said they dont know and couldnt answer me as to why the dont tell you,

do they really know how to identify the different variants
what are they acheiving if they do know in not tell the patient as to what variant they have

If you have had Covid it's fairly easy to work out the likelihood of what variant you had by when you had it unless its close to the 50/50 swap over time between Delta and Omicron and also the symptoms between Delta and Omicron are different,

10 down on the right for Australia variant graph
https://covariants.org/per-country

Only 3% Delta now in Australia.

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Supafreak Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 8:19pm

@gromfull , this is just a wild guess as to why you weren’t informed of what strain you had . Possibly the test confirms you have covid but different testing is needed to work out which strain and unless you were hospitalised then they wouldn’t bother as the man hours and costs would be enormous. Possibly someone like san guine or tyler durdan might have a better answer. …….edit , I just did a quick search and came across this so now I’m changing my guess to fucknose https://www.tga.gov.au/ability-covid-19-tests-detect-emerging-genetic-va...

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Stok Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 8:13pm
gromfull wrote:
Blowin wrote:

Just when you think it can’t get any more fanciful and ridiculous, just when you’re certain that the public is going to simultaneously pissing themselves laughing cause they’ve all just realise they’ve been had, you get this stuff….

“Health minister Greg Hunt has stated that those infected with Omicron will still need to get booster shots:

“If you have had omicron, but the simple message is – you still need to be boosted. We want all Australians to come forward to be boosted and once you cleared your symptoms, then it’s appropriate for you to come forward so long as you are eligible for your dose.”

Lolololol

Give it up you silly hunt!

Gooday blowie, id like to know how they know who had what variant, because when you test positive they dont tell you what variant you have, so i asked my doctor, he said they dont know and couldnt answer me as to why the dont tell you,

do they really know how to identify the different variants
what are they acheiving if they do know in not tell the patient as to what variant they have

Are you seriously asking blowin that question?

Honestly, did you really go to the doctor, ask them that, then think "hmmmm, I know, I'll come on swellnet and ask Blowin".

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Roadkill Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 8:23pm

This is why lockdowns have been so good for Australia. The longer we kept covid out, better treatments and how to treat was developed in overseas hospitals. We know so much more, we were the lucky country. This is what the anti vax idiots here failed to understand. https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/the-way-we-treat-covid-has-cha...

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Roadkill Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 8:24pm
Stok wrote:
gromfull wrote:
Blowin wrote:

Just when you think it can’t get any more fanciful and ridiculous, just when you’re certain that the public is going to simultaneously pissing themselves laughing cause they’ve all just realise they’ve been had, you get this stuff….

“Health minister Greg Hunt has stated that those infected with Omicron will still need to get booster shots:

“If you have had omicron, but the simple message is – you still need to be boosted. We want all Australians to come forward to be boosted and once you cleared your symptoms, then it’s appropriate for you to come forward so long as you are eligible for your dose.”

Lolololol

Give it up you silly hunt!

Gooday blowie, id like to know how they know who had what variant, because when you test positive they dont tell you what variant you have, so i asked my doctor, he said they dont know and couldnt answer me as to why the dont tell you,

do they really know how to identify the different variants
what are they acheiving if they do know in not tell the patient as to what variant they have

Are you seriously asking blowin that question?

Honestly, did you really go to the doctor, ask them that, then think "hmmmm, I know, I'll come on swellnet and ask Blowin".

Dr snowflake.

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burleigh Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 8:40pm
Roadkill wrote:

This is why lockdowns have been so good for Australia. The longer we kept covid out, better treatments and how to treat was developed in overseas hospitals. We know so much more, we were the lucky country. This is what the anti vax idiots here failed to understand. https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/the-way-we-treat-covid-has-cha...

Lol, there are loads of early treatment options. Just not in patient so no money.

But never fear Pfizer to the rescue with their own version sold at top dollar.

What a miracle.

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Ben Harding Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 8:55pm
gragagan wrote:
groundswell wrote:

Yeah lol what happened to all the terrorists and alkidha however you spell it...?

Isis? The fake islamic "terrorist" group set up to give the US and it's allies (us) an excuse to attempt to overthrow the Syrian government? They're not needed for the time being

Still some heavy shit going on over in the Middle East/Syria … Ethiopia is also going through an extremely gnarly civil war. Their PM won a Nobel Peace Prize two years ago for ending the decades long conflict with Eritrea. Fast forward to 2022 and he wants and has begun to try to exterminate and bury (literally, his words) 7.07 million people from an opposing regional area. It’s all still happening, you just have to search for it. Those peace prizes have a knack of landing in the laps of straight up killers.

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Roadkill Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 8:47pm
burleigh wrote:
Roadkill wrote:

This is why lockdowns have been so good for Australia. The longer we kept covid out, better treatments and how to treat was developed in overseas hospitals. We know so much more, we were the lucky country. This is what the anti vax idiots here failed to understand. https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/the-way-we-treat-covid-has-cha...

Lol, there are loads of early treatment options. Just not in patient so no money.

But never fear Pfizer to the rescue with their own version sold at top dollar.

What a miracle.

Right on cue…the head village idiot.