We’ll then see a few days of elevated surf with strong winds to low end gales in the southern flank of the low aimed up at Tasmania.
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A low moves through Bass Strait Sun and looks to stall for days with swell producing winds aimed up straight at Tasmania’s east coast.
A front moving into the Tasman Tues then interacts with the low, causing a robust deepening of the low and a complex pattern as a trough spins off the low and moves north while a further trough of low pressure forms off to the south.
We’ve currently got a deep polar low with two strong embedded fronts tracking NE into the lower Tasman. High pressure moves up over NSW with light winds Sat, tending NW Sun as high pressure moves to the NE and a front passes to the south.
It’s an impressive fetch with severe gale to storm force winds in a wide band moving NE, only offset by winds being not perfectly aimed up the pipe.
Tomorrow will be great across open beaches ahead of a windy south swell Wednesday, best as it eases.
As it does it aims up the fetch of E/NE winds into the NETas swell window and we’ll see increasing swells from the NE direction o/night and into Sat.
We'll see building levels of NE tending E/NE swell this period follow by a windy, cold S'ly swell.
These small lows may move north, then east and finally south or may coalesce in a more classic Tasman Low or ECL variant. Either way we should see some quality E/NE swell for Tas as the fetch draws out through the Tasman.
By mid week the trough of low pressure in the Tasman is expected to be moving southwards towards the NSW south coast.