Eastern Tasmanian Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri May 23rd)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Large NE swell Sat with strengthening NW winds
• Slowly easing E/NE swell Sun with strong NW tending N/NW winds
• Moderate sized N windswell Mon with strong N/NW winds
• Mod-large S'ly swell like Tue PM with strong SW winds
• More strong S swell Wed, easing Thurs
• Reinforcing S swell pulse Fri/easing Sat
• More S groundswell into the first week of winter

Recap

Fun sized E/NE swell to 2-3ft yesterday under NW winds, has built further into today with 3ft surf, still on a building trend through the a'noon under NW-N winds.

This weekend and next (May 23 - 30)

After a hectic week of La Niña influenced weather (for those south of the trough at least in NSW!) we should be on the other side of it this weekend as the trough/low continues to slide down the East Coast towards the Gippsland/Bass Strait coast. As it does it aims up the fetch of E/NE winds into the NETas swell window and we’ll see increasing swells from the NE direction o/night and into Sat. 

Expect surf in the 5-6ft range Sat with some bigger sets possible through the day, a bit wind affected eaglet under NE winds before winds shift NW through W/NW and clean things up. Sat should be pumping. 

Strong NW tending N/NW winds will persist Sunday as a low approaches from the west with swells shifting more E/NE and easing, still 4-5ft+ thanks to the slow peeling away of the fetch east, towards New Zealand.

By Mon we’ll see easing swells from the nor-easter event with 3ft surf, and a reinforcement in local NE windswell to 3ft as a brief intensification of pre-frontal N’ly winds occurs across Bass Strait. Fresh/strong N’lies shift NW-W/NW in the a’noon as a strong front approaches.

By Tues a strong cold outbreak with a front sweeping up over the SE of the continent and a deep low shifting into the Tasman will be taking place. We’ll see a fresh S’ly swell on the build through the day. A mix of directional S swell trains as a very broad fetch moves into the Tasman and SE of Tasmania. The European model has a very powerful low moving NE into the Tasman , with GFS a slightly weaker system.

Expect surf in the 3-4ft range early, building to 6-8ft at S exposed breaks under fresh SW-S/SW winds.

Size holds into Wed before easing Thurs with winds shifting S’ly on Wed and tending light/variable Thurs as high pressure passes over the state. 

Follow-up fronts look to supply reinforcing S’ly energy into Fri/Sat, likely with some size to it, although models are still divergent over the strength and track of the following fronts.

High pressure then occupies the Tasman with settled conditions and W’ly ridging over Tasmania.

More strong frontal activity under the continent and below 40S to the polar regions suggests S’ly groundswell pulses into the first week of winter.

We’ll investigate that further on Mon.

Until then, have a great weekend!