Eastern Tasmanian Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 16th May)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Bigger S swell increase into Sat, easing a notch into Sun with SW/S winds Sat, more W’ly Sun
• S swell easing into Mon, likely back up again Tues
• Sizey E-E/NE swell Thurs/Fri as low in Tasman drifts southwards- check back Mon for the latest

Recap

Small E/NE swells filtering down from the tropics are holding a tiny, just surfable wave in the 1-1.5ft range today, down a notch from yesterday when there were 2ft sets. Light offshore winds are providing clean, baby food conditions. 

This weekend and next week (May16— May 23)

No great change to the weekend f/cast. There’s a powerful polar low slow moving under the continent with multiple fetches operating well to the SW of Tasmania. Most of the swell is heading up the pipe for South Pacific targets but we will see long period S swell wrap showing through Sat to 3ft. Winds won’t be ideal for S facing beaches as a front brings a S/SW-S flow but some 3-4ft sets are expected.

Similar size into Sun morning before easing with early SW winds shifting S/SW then W through W/NW as a high approaches from the NW and a front passes to the south.

Into next week and we’ve got good model agreement now that through Mon we’ll see a deep trough develop from the Coral Sea down to a terminus somewhere on the MNC to lower North Coast with good odds we will see a surface low develop at that terminus. Initial winds from the fetch feeding into this system are aimed at NSW so we’ll see a couple of small days for NETas to start next week. Mon sees the end of small S swells with sets to 2ft at S facing beaches and offshore winds from W’ly ridging. 

Some just rideable NE windswell is possible Tues as high pressure drifts to the NE of the state.

Wed looks like a low point with tiny/flat surf. 

By mid week the trough of low pressure in the Tasman is expected to be moving southwards towards the NSW south coast (see below). As it does so, it will drag the E-E/NE fetch feeding into the low with it and aim up into NETas’s swell window. That should see plenty of E/NE swell develop into Thurs and Fri, provisionally into the 5-6ft range both days. As the low heads south Tasmania will be subject to a SW flow, tending more S’ly Fri.

Low moving southwards brings E/NE fetch into the swell window next week

We may see another strong NE fetch develop next weekend, models are mixed on that so we’ll flag it for now as a low confidence event. 

We’ll see how it looks when we come back Mon.

Until then, have a great weekend!