We’ve still got a dynamic week ahead as a trough currently off the Gippsland coast moves NE and develops into a broad surface low, backed by a high currently SW of Tasmania.
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The trough looks to rapidly deepen into a broad surface low off the Far South or Gippsland Coast o/night Mon into Tues. There’s still model divergence over the strength and position of this low which will have material impacts on surf size and local winds so stay tuned for updates over the weekend and on Mon.
From there things get more dynamic. The crux of it is a trough moving NE from Bass Strait which looks to rapidly deepen later Mon, possibly forming a broad surface low in the Tasman NE of Tasmania.
Into next week, a polar low passing through the Southern ocean late next weekend looks to send some long period S swell up the pipe early next week
The coming period is promising with great waves on the weekend followed by a good southerly swell mid-next week.
Building levels of northerly windswell will be followed by an east-southeast groundswell on the weekend.
Small levels of E/NE energy ahead of a stronger E/SE groundswell on the weekend.
No great change to the weekend outlook, with a strong high (1030hPa) moving offshore from the south coast of NSW and a coastal low forming off the North Coast of NSW. We’ll see a N’ly flow develop off the high tomorrow with freshening N-NW winds and some small NE windswell developing in the a’noon to 2ft.
Swells from a deeper fetch associated with the polar low under the front bring longer period S swells on Fri.
We’ve got a really dynamic outlook this week as a strong high drifts across from the Bight and a trough drawing in tropical moisture from the Indian Ocean moves across the country and eventually enters the Tasman Sea, with a front and long angled trough and possible surface low expected to form in the Tasman late this week.