Still on track for a wintry blast this weekend as a strong cold front tied to an intense low currently west of Tasmania sweeps up over the SE overnight and enters the Tasman early tomorrow morning.
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A powerful front and low forming near Tasmania drives gales up from the Bight over the inland of the SE of the continent, then re-enters the Tasman as SW gales to severe gales early Sat morning.
These low centres are focussing areas of E’ly to NE’ly infeed along the trough line- perfectly aimed at east coast targets all the way down to Tasmania.
Surf-wise, whatever configuration of low pressure we end up getting, a broad E’ly infeed in the Southern Coral Sea and Northern Tasman as well as one off the South Coast aimed at Tasmania will generate plenty of E/NE’ly swell into early-mid week.
We’ll see the NE’ly flow continue to develop in the Northern Tasman and Coral Seas through this week, with swells from that E-NE quadrant building through this short term period under an onshore flow.
The dominant player is a massive high moving through the Bight and expected to drift over and eastwards of Tasmania tomorrow to occupy the Tasman for most of the week.
We may see a deepening trough and E/NE-NE infeed dip south later next week bringing some sizey E/NE-NE swell to Tas next weekend.
SE-E/SE swell is the main swell next week as the low remains slow moving in the eastern Tasman.
The weekend’s fronts and lows sweeping up from the south look to consolidate early next week into a much stronger system, backed by a strong high in the Bight.
The great run of east swell finally comes to a close over the weekend.