Friday, 15 September 2023

A trough hovering about the South Coast will see a N’ly flow through Sat, with good odds for a morning NW breeze and a late tilt back to the NW, especially south of Sydney. Further north freshening N’lies look more likely. A few leftover S swell trains should hold some 2 occ 3ft sets at S facing beaches but energy will be in the way down.

Wednesday, 13 September 2023

We still have a large (1032hPa) high slow moving over NSW directing light N’lies over temperate NSW and SE winds in the sub-tropics. A slow moving frontal progression is gradually working it’s way clear of New Zealand longitudes while sending pulses of S’ly groundswell our way.

Monday, 11 September 2023

A big dominant high (1032hPa) is sitting over SE Australia, with a series of powerful fronts passing well to the south and the progression slowed in New Zealand longitudes. The high is slow moving, setting up a dichotomy with N’ly winds across temperate NSW and a more SE flow in a ridge along the sub-tropics. Across all regions we’ll see pulses of S’ly groundswell this week from the deep fetches located in the Far Southern Tasman. 

Friday, 8 September 2023

The headline act is a complex low system approaching Tasmania with an embedded front and linked to a long inland trough. A NE-E/NE infeed into this system has produced swell from that quarter and as the low clears the swell shadow of Tasmania we’ll start to see swells from the S. Following systems next week look to generate stronger, longer period S’ly swells.

Wednesday, 6 September 2023

A front and small low are now racing across the Tasman with a high over NSW moving into the Tasman and directing a freshening N’ly flow across most of the Eastern Seaboard. So far, so spring. A complex low, front and trough then approaches from the W, bringing a flush of W’ly winds and a S swell.

Monday, 4 September 2023

The following system expected over the weekend now looks a little stronger and under current modelling is expected to be a source of fun sizey S swell, potentially with several large pulses into next week.

Friday, 1 September 2023

No great change to the weekend f/cast. S swells will be the dominant force in the water through tomorrow, mostly mid period stuff whipped up by a proximate fetch of S-SSW winds generated by a front and trough of low pressure forming in the Tasman.

Wednesday, 30 August 2023

There’s a troughy pattern in play at present, with a long trough snaking from inland QLD down to the Central/Southern NSW Coast. Return flow off the back of a retreating high is feeding N’ly winds into the trough line. We’re expecting a front to interact with the trough overnight Thurs to form a low pressure trough in the Tasman.

Monday, 28 August 2023

A trough will extend along the East coast before a front through the latter half of the week brings vigorous S’ly winds by Fri. The trough is expected to move offshore and merge with a more tropical derived depression to form a large trough of low pressure in the Tasman over the weekend. This has been a feature of synoptic prognostic charts for a few weeks now, with forecasts generally tending to weaken and fall apart as the event unfolds. Lets hope this one comes to fruition to deliver some chunky S-SE swell. 

Friday, 25 August 2023

We’ve still got the basic building blocks in place that we mentioned on Wed with the proviso that everything looks a little weaker and disjointed. High pressure moves NE of Tasmania and the troughs remain inland, although we may see a weaker trough area move off the North Coast of NSW early in the week.