Mix of swell sources with flukey winds on top

Ben Matson picture
Ben Matson (thermalben)

Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wed 22 Jan)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

  • Average mix of (slowly) improving swells Thurs as winds abate
  • Fun small leftovers Fri AM ahead of developing S'ly winds 
  • Easing S/SE swells Sat with light AM winds
  • New S'ly swell for Sun with early light winds, though inconsistent
  • More S'ly swell next week

Recap

E’ly swells built in size on Tuesday from 3-5ft at dawn to a solid 6ft around lunchtime, with early light variable winds giving way to afternoon sea breezes from the E/NE. Size has eased today from 4ft at dawn to 3ft this afternoon, with early light offshore winds ahead of a southerly change that reached Wollongong just after 1pm, and Sydney just before 3pm.

Inside out at the Island late morning Tuesday

This week (Jan 23 - 24)

No major changes to the outlook for the next few days.

Southerly winds will gradually ease through Thursday though early morning will still see below average conditions at exposed spots. There’s a chance for an early window of lighter SW winds across one or two coasts (such as the Northern Beaches) but it’s not a high confidence scenario. 

However, by the time the afternoon rolls around we should be back to a moderate S/SE flow and it’ll probably be light by the end of the day. This should allow conditions to slowly improve.

As for surf, we’ll see a mix of small leftover east swell from today, but a more dominant south swell generated by the trailing fetch behind today’s change, with size around 3-4ft at south facing beaches. 

Late afternoon should also see a new flush of E’ly swell from a fetch that developed off the North Island of New Zealand earlier this week. No major size is expected but we should see 2-3ft sets from this source. 

Friday morning’s still looking fun with a mix of small leftover swells from the south and east (2-3ft max, easing through the morning) ahead of a developing southerly change that will ruin conditions into the afternoon.

Synoptically, it’s a slightly more complex setup than previously thought, as we’ll see a surface trough develop in the western Tasman Sea tomorrow in the lee of today’s change, which may evolve into a closed low on Friday morning - before merging with an approaching southerly change (due into the Gippsland early Friday morning, and the NSW South Coast mid-late morning). 

However, the closed low - east of the South Coast on Friday morning - may instigate a swing in the wind direction to the south across Sydney/Hunter/Illawarra coasts in the morning, which won’t be the southerly change per se, but it could still affect surface conditions. The main strength in the southerly flow probably won’t kick in until mid-late afternoon.

Anyway, long story short: aim for an early surf on Friday as conditions are only likely to deteriorate as the day wears on, not improve.  

This weekend (25 - 26)

As suggested in Wednesday’s notes, I’m not keen on the alignment of this Tasman Low.

Furthermore, model guidance has weakened the trailing fetch behind Friday’s southerly change (i.e. east of Bass Strait) which means our south swell potential for the weekend is lower.

Given that the Tasman Low will be positioned E/SE of Sydney on Friday night, albeit with a S/SW fetch aimed up towards New Caledonia, I’m still going to hold out hope for some sideband energy from the S/SE providing 2-3ft sets across south facing beaches (smaller elsewhere). And the Hunter may see a little more size, but the trend will be down through the day. Expect early light variable winds ahead of afternoon NSW sea breezes. 

Sunday has a new southerly swell inbound, generated by a broad though unremarkable polar low and front currently tracking well south of Tasmania. This should increase most south facing beaches into the 2-3ft range, with occasional 3-4ft sets across the Hunter region. It’ll be quite inconsistent though.

Early light variable winds and afternoon NE sea breezes are also expected across the region on Sunday, so there should be good surf at the swell magnets - but expect tiny surf elsewhere. 

Next week (27 onwards)

A stronger, slightly more northern storm track - though less favourably aligned - will push under Tasmania on the weekend, generating some small sideband south swell for the start of next week. 

This will then be followed by an intense low south of Tasmania around Tuesday - again, poorly aligned within our swell window - but displaying very long swell periods (18+ seconds) that could exaggerate surf heights across south swell magnets considerably around Wednesday.

It’s too early to hone in on specific sizes, so I’ll take a closer look on Friday - however, although this could be a major swell producer for Victoria, I think the poor alignment and Tasmania’s shadowing effects will likely downplay this system’s potential for NSW surfers. 

See you Friday!

Comments

FrazP's picture
FrazP's picture
FrazP Thursday, 23 Jan 2025 at 1:43pm

Unfortunately the recent swell didn't do much to fix up the shite banks. Sand has moved around a bit but seems that unless the swell is a good 4-5ft plus and breaking on the outer banks it's still crud with deep long shore gutters and then just a straight shorey - ughhh

sean killen's picture
sean killen's picture
sean killen Thursday, 23 Jan 2025 at 9:11pm

Snuck a wave in yesterday afternoon..been trying to keep fit, holy shit how quickly do you loss surf fitness..30 duck dives and paddling non stop for an hour in a rip bowl smashed me ..too long between surfs and festive season caught up with me ..

bbbird's picture
bbbird's picture
bbbird Thursday, 23 Jan 2025 at 9:18pm

Try a reef at h.t.
Good gutters for fishing; maybe acute angle swell to move the sand along this week....?