Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri Jan 10th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Not much for the weekend with small E/NE swells and light/mod N-NE winds Sat, slightly stronger on Sun- both days should be surfable
• Start of next week now looking small and weak with small E/NE swells likely
• Should see a small bump in size from the E/NE-E mid week (Wed or Thurs) as a small low moves down from sub-tropics
• Unstable pattern later next week with potential low moving off South Coast bringing a spike in S swell Fri
• Possible E-E/SE swell Sun from infeed into low
• Very low confidence in outcomes due to model divergence- check back Mon for latest updates

Recap

Yesterday came good, as winds relaxed, allowing a morning land breeze and clean conditions on 3-4ft of SE swell. Surf is holding in this morning, although down a notch from yesterday with sets still to 3ft under light winds now tending to light E’lies then clocking around NE through the day. 

Best day in a while yesterday

This weekend (Jan 11-12)

 No great change to the weekend f/cast. High pressure drifting towards New Zealand and a broad inland low maintain a mod E-NE flow across most of the Eastern Seaboard. 

The current SE-E/SE swell fades out with small E-E/NE swells hanging in there to 2ft through Sat. 

Not much difference to conditions or surf size on Sun. Compared to expectations on Wed we should see winds stay a little lighter through Sun with early light breezes (NW) tending to mod a’noon NE breezes. 

Nothing amazing but there should be a small, surfable wave on hand. 

Next week (Jan 13 onwards)

Weak high pressure in the Tasman with a very unstable air mass drifting eastwards over the continent. We should see a couple of days of light winds with weak E-NE breezes and small NE windswells to 1-2ft through Mon and Tues.

During this time, models are suggesting a small trough of low pressure will bud off the inland low and drift into the Coral Sea off the SEQLD Coast.

Initially the localised fetch will benefit the sub-tropics with a useful increase in E tending E/SE swell from Tues into Thurs. 

The small low looks to move southwards through the week aiming up at more temperate areas as it does so. 

Expect some revision on Mon but a small increase in E/NE’ly swells should be on tap through either late Wed or into Thurs, up into the 2-3ft range under light winds.

From there, outcomes become prone to very large error bars. The crux of it is the fate of the inland trough of low pressure as it approaches the Tasman. 

GFS suggests the inland trough moves Northwards, with a trough spawning a small low east of Tasmania and rapidly deepens o/night into Fri with strong winds to gales developing off the south coast and Bass Strait (see below). Under this scenario we would expect a rapid spike in new S swell through Fri, up into the 5-6ft range at S facing beaches. The low then washes out and becomes absorbed into the general trough of low pressure hovering in the inland. Local S swells rapidly ease into the weekend, then rebuild as an E’ly infeed into the low extends out towards the North Island through the Tasman. This would see a new E-E/SE swell fill in through Sun into Mon.

More low pressure then potentially forms off the QLD coast and in the lower Tasman later in the week. 

The EC prognosis is for a low off the Far South Coast to stall next to the coast with no real S’ly flow expected and a minor NE infeed initially, drawing out into the Tasman over the weekend and generating useful E/NE swells. 

With poor run to run and model to model consistency confidence is very low on outcomes. Check back Mon and keep fingers crossed one of the more surf-filled outcomes is still a live possibility.

Until then, have a great weekend!