Friday, 10 June 2022

Current ASCAT (satellite wind speed) passes show gales to severe gales extending down to 55S with a tighter core of storm force winds just emerging from behind Tasmania as it tracks NE into the Tasman Sea. The synoptic flow from the fronts and Southern Gyre remains W to W/SW and that will continue all weekend with plenty of wind chill to boot.

Wednesday, 8 June 2022

Strong high pressure support from a 1033hPa elongated high in the Bight is providing tight pressure gradients for the multiple fronts spinning off the gyre. That will lead to numerous over-lapping S’ly pulses over the coming week with a general step-ladder effect expected at least through to Mon. A general offshore flow will accompany these pulses as the fronts drive W’ly biased winds across the temperate to sub-tropical East Coast.

Monday, 6 June 2022

A strong node of the Long Wave Trough is steering fronts into the Tasman Sea while a negative phase of the SAM (Southern Annular Mode) is bringing the southern Ocean storm track into a more northerly latitude, closer to the Australian continent and Tasman Sea. Both those factors will drive a series of strong cold fronts this week, with a step-ladder effect likely on swell pulses as each subsequent front works on an already charged sea state. 

Friday, 3 June 2022

Sunday’s NW quadrant wind trend will be related to an advancing frontal progression across the south-eastern corner of the country, associated with an amplifying Long Wave Trough.

Wednesday, 1 June 2022

Brisk westerly winds and a complex low pressure gyre in the Tasman Sea, with multiple cold fronts and a deep S’ly fetch of gales extending down to 55S have ushered in the first day of Winter.

Monday, 30 May 2022

Another dynamic week ahead but a bit more straightforwards in the sense that all the incoming swell will be from the S - once the current E swell pulse peters out through tomorrow.

Friday, 27 May 2022

Right on cue, as head into the first week of winter, a nice cold outbreak and blast of W’ly winds with accompanying S’ly swells is headed our way.

Wednesday, 25 May 2022

Synoptic pattern still has a ground-hog day feel to it, with a large, slow moving high inching it’s way across the Tasman and a coastal trough lying parallel to almost the entire East Coast. Change is on the way though.

Monday, 23 May 2022

Sub-tropical troughs and the remnants of TC Gina near New Caledonia are maintaining a deep E’ly flow through the Coral Sea while the last in a series of powerful cold fronts are now sweeping up past the South Island of New Zealand with small S to SSE swell pulses to come over the next couple of days from this source.

Friday, 20 May 2022

The frontal progression responsible for the S swell pulses over the last couple of days is now on the New Zealand side of the Tasman, with a large high approaching Tasmania setting up a firm ridge along the coast.