Victorian Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday July 18th)

Best Days: Every day this period, with the beaches to the east Tuesday morning and Wednesday afternoon/Thursday

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Large W/SW groundswell today with persistent NW winds, easing into tomorrow AM
• Mod-large, reinforcing W/SW groundswell for tomorrow PM, easing slowly Sun with some mid-period swell in the mix
• Strong N-N/NW tending N/NW winds tomorrow AM, NW into the PM
• Fresh NW winds Sun AM, easing and tending N/NE later to the east
• Moderate sized SW groundswell Mon AM, easing, smaller Tue
• Strengthening N-N/NE winds Mon
• Strong N-N/NE tending N/NW winds Tue
• Moderate sized W/SW groundswell Wed with N/NW tending N/NE winds
• Easing swell Thu with gusty N/NE tending NE winds

Recap

Our first pulse of groundswell filled in and peaked Wednesday night across the regions, with yesterday morning offering great but slowish 4-5ft sets across the Surf Coast under offshore winds. A change moved through during the day creating deteriorating conditions and this morning we’ve got our secondary pulse of larger W/SW groundswell in the water.

The Surf Coast is the pick again with clean 5-6ft sets on the magnets, with a slight drop due through the day as winds hold from the NW.

Good sized sets and conditions today

This weekend and next week (Jul 19 - 25)

Two swell pulses down, one to go.

The secondary pulse of large W/SW groundswell from a strong progression of storms under the country should peak through today, with it due to ease into tomorrow morning under early, strong N-N/NW winds.

Through the afternoon though, our third and final pulse of W/SW groundswell is due, with it coming in a touch under the size seen today. This was generated by a final fetch of severe-gale W/NW winds moving in on the active sea state generated by storm linked to today’s swell.

This should see the Surf Coast building from 3-5ft in the morning to a stronger 4-5ft through the late afternoon, then easing Sunday from the 3-5ft range. To the east, the morning looks to be 6ft+, building back to 6-8ft with easing sets again from 6ft+ due on Sunday morning.

It’s worth noting that there’ll also be some mid-period W/SW swell in the mix Sunday from a weak front moving through tomorrow evening.

Coming back to the local winds and those early, strong N-N/NW winds tomorrow are due to shift more NW into the afternoon with Sunday seeing fresh morning NW winds, easing into the afternoon and even tending N/NE-NE to the east later.

Into Monday, we’re set to see the easing trend slowed one final time by a small, strengthening low drifting south-east through our swell window on Sunday. A fetch of W/NW gales looks to maintain 3-4ft sets early on the Surf Coast Monday, easing through the day with 5-6ft waves to the east, smaller Tuesday.

Local winds for this swell look best for the beaches with a strengthening N/NE breeze through Monday, N/NE-N tending N/NW through Tuesday.

Now, as flagged in Wednesday’s notes, a deepening mid-latitude low in the Bight is expected to drop south-east into our swell window on Tuesday and with this we’re expected to see a great fetch of W/SW gales projected in our western swell window. This looks to generate a moderate sized increase in W/SW groundswell Wednesday, likely to 3ft on the Surf Coast and 4-6ft to the east.

Winds could be favourable for both coasts and N/NW in the morning before shifting N/NE into the afternoon but we’ll confirm this Monday.

As the swell eases Thursday, it looks like N/NE tending NE winds will favour the exposed beaches with the next run of swell likely to kick in from next weekend. Have a great weekend!