South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri July 18th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Building S/SE tending SE swell over the weekend with small waves across semi-exposed points and beachies in the morning
• Plenty of E/SE swell next week with waves on beachies and points as low drifts through Northern Tasman
• Still a possibility for a more significant E swell next weekend as low reintensifies in the South Pacific next week- check back Mon for updates

Recap

S swells hung in there yesterday with size to 2ft at S exposed breaks in NENSW (best swell magnets saw some 3ft sets), with tiny surf in SEQLD. Conditions were clean early under light winds before a’noon NE seabreezes. Today is seeing small surf in the 1-1.5ft range or less with early offshore breezes already tending more S’ly as a low develops off the North Coast.

Not much happening, even on the magnets. Tomorrow will see more action

This weekend (July 19 - 20)

No great change to the weekend f/cast, with a small low currently winding up east of Coffs Harbour and developing S’ly winds.

Offshore W-SW winds are still expected Sat morning with winds swinging S’ly early in the piece and reaching fresh paces through the day.

 With the low winding up o/night and into tomorrow we’ll see an initial boost in short range S swell tomorrow, tending more S/SE through the day with size up to 3ft in NENSW, 2-3ft by close of play in SEQLD where surf will still be tiny for the early. 

Similar winds for Sun, early W to SW breezes tending mod/fresh S’ly through the day. We’ll see continuing S through S/SE swell in the 3ft range likely build a notch through the a’noon. 

Next week (July 21 onwards)

We’ve got more clarity on the low in the Northern Tasman which slowly drifts towards a central position in the South Pacific slot roughly equidistant between New Caledonia and the North Island. There’s still some model divergence later next week but for now we’ve got reasonable confidence a broad fetch will develop through the Northern Tasman (see below) as high pressure moves into the Tasman and supplies an anchor for the low.

That should see a few days of quality SE tending E/SE swell with Mon building into the 3-4ft range under morning SW land breezes tending to mod SE breezes in the a’noon.

Size builds into the 3-4 ft with occ. 5ft sets on Tues and we’ll see early W winds with lighter S-SE winds as pressure gradients ease as the low moves away. Lots of fun surf on the beachies and peelers on the Points once the wind comes up S-SE.

Wednesday looks great as a pressure gradients slacken right and light winds and variable a’noon seabreezes sets in. Size should hold in the 3-4ft range at least- GFS has a slightly more bullish outlook than EC. Under the best case scenario we’re looking at 3-5ft of quality E/NE swell but worst case is still really fun 3 occ. 4ft so pencil in Wed.

Thurs also looks great with similar size surf and winds shifting SW-S as a trough or small low forms off the NSW coast.

That leads to low confidence in the outlook for the rest of the week. 

It’s likely we’ll see some sort of E-E/NE infeed into the trough/low with more swell from that direction later next week. 

GFS is also still suggesting an intensification of the low as it tracks out past New Zealand which could lead to a pulse of longer period E swell into next weekend. 

Into next weekend and EC is suggesting a major low pressure centre tracking into Bass Strait and then into the Tasman with a strong W’ly blast followed by some S swell as the low moves into the Tasman.

GFS holds the troughy pattern in the Tasman with possibility of more E’ly swell from infeeds into troughs or lows.

Definitely looks like an active period ahead either way so check back Mon and we’ll see how it’s shaping up.

Until then, have a great weekend!