We’ve got a classic winter, stratified pattern with a high pressure belt over the continent, extending out into the Tasman Sea and a robust W’ly storm track below the maritime continent. We’ll see frontal intrusion into the Tasman early this week, with a small front passing into the Tasman today and a stronger system following behind it tomorrow- generating more pulses of S swell mid week.
A trough and cold front are being rapidly shunted southwards by a blocking high which is moving NE into the sub-tropical Tasman and weakening. The current swell sources are all drying up leaving us with small background swells.
A powerful front has passed through the Tasman, creating our current S’ly groundswell. A more compact but even stronger storm is right behind it, reaching peak strength halfway across the lower Tasman before slamming into the South Island.
Some powerful but zonal frontal activity will cross the far lower Tasman and send some long period S swell up the Tasman Sea pipe, some of which will wrap into the NSW Coast. Another frontal system then pushes into the Tasman Sea later this week and into the weekend. A typical winter week.
Fridays S’ly change is linked to a robust front (and long angular trough of low pressure in the Tasman) and the northwards intrusion into the Tasman will bring plenty of directional S swell- up into the 4-5ft range at S facing beaches, bigger 6ft at least, on the Hunter
Looks like we’ve got an upgrade in store for Thursday’s size.
We’ve got a mobile pattern this week with high pressure over NSW slipping out into the Tasman, before a trough and front push into the Tasman in advance of another high cell moving over Southern NSW into the Tasman. We’ll see quite a few wind changes this week as a result and modest upgrade in S swell energy as the trough and front develop a handy fetch in the Tasman
Blocking high pressure in the Central Tasman has a ridge up the QLD Coast, with weak pressure gradients across NSW leading to pre-frontal N-NW winds. Not much surf on offer either day.
Cold fronts have passed through the Tasman and the high pressure will now exert a blocking effect, steering fronts well away from the swell window or ensuring a zonal (W-E) flow through the end of the week and into the weekend.
Another week begins with a classic winter El Niño pattern. High pressure over the continent with a W’ly flow being enhanced by a series of mobile fronts and parent lows, sending small S swell pulses our way.