Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri Nov 29)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr) 

• Small NE windswells rebuilding on Sat with strengthening N-NE winds
• Tricky winds Sun with a morning peak in NE windswell- keep tabs on local winds as trough hovers around
• Winds shift offshore Mon with small, fun swells
• Shifty winds next week with small NE-E/NE swells
• Starting to look a bit more energetic medium term- possible sizey S swell and tropical developments

Recap

A few fun waves yesterday with a combo NE-E/NE swell offering up 2 occ. 3ft surf. Conditions were clean early under light land breezes with NE winds kicking up in the a’noon. A trough has brought unsettled conditions today with early variable winds now tending mod S’ly before swinging around E/NE again. Size has dropped to the 2ft range with the very occ. bigger set. 

Quality low but some workable waves from the NE-E/NE

This weekend (Nov 30-Dec 1)

No change to the weekend f/cast. We’ll see the N-NE flow re-strengthen on Sat as a large high slips in under Tasmania and multiple troughs and a cut-off low forming over the interior tighten the pressure gradient along the coast. Small surf too start in the 2ft range under a persistent N-NE flow (possibly NW inshore briefly on the Northern Beaches) before winds kick to fresh paces. We’ll see NE windswell build in the a’noon to a reasonable size, up in the 3ft range with the chance of a bigger set here and there. 

Model divergence for Sun makes extra error margins for the wind outlook but surf size looks locked in as the N-NE fetch up the coast extends northwards and reaches a peak in the early hours of the morning as it infeeds into the cut-off low moving into Bass Strait (see below).

That suggests a peak in size to 3-4ft in the morning with winds from the N-N/NW. From there, winds will depend in the movement of a trough. EC maintains a fairly stiff N’ly flow most of the day, tending N/NW late in the a’noon. GFS suggests the troughy area moving over the region and bringing a lighter variable NE-E/NE flow. Keep tabs on local winds due to this shifty troughy pattern bringing wind changes or lighter breezes. There’ll be surfable options Sun, but NE windswell size should ease through the a’noon as the impending trough shunts the fetch eastwards away from the coast. That will be offset by a continuing E/NE swell filtering down from the top of the high.

Next week (Dec2 onwards)

Offshore winds Mon morning as the trough clears the coast.  We may see a S’ly flow just tickle the Illawarra depending on how far north the trough moves. Either way, winds should be light and conditions clean for the morning before a NE breeze kicks in for the a’noon. Fun sized E/NE swells in the 2 occ. 3ft range offer up plenty of beachie options. 

Winds then shift back to the N and look to hold a light N’ly flow until Wed, at this stage, where another weak trough brings a shallow S’ly change. We’ll revisit winds on Mon, but the change looks to push into Sydney Wed. 

Fun sized E/NE swells hold in that 2 occ. 3ft range Tues with light NW breezes early tending to light N’lies so workable beachies again on the menu, as long as you don’t expect too much in the way of size of quality.

Easing swells Wed with a weak S-SE flow suggest a possible lay day.

Further ahead we may see a weak front late next week supply a small flush of S swell next weekend.

The medium term is starting to look more muscular as move into the second week of summer. There are model suggestions of a stronger SE surge and potential tradewind band developing, potentially enhanced by a long, angled trough in the Coral Sea/Northern Tasman. EC is suggesting a powerful low moving below the Tasman in advance of that, later next weekend which would generate some sizey S swell. At the moment that is way too far in the distance to have any confidence in but the fact models are starting to hint at these developments bodes well for a little more size medium term.

We’ll see how it looks on Mon. Until then, have a great weekend!