South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri Aug 1st)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Dynamic weekend ahead with intense low expected to form off NENSW/SEQLD coast
• Small early Sat with a late increase in size across MNC/North Coast in the a’noon, smaller in SEQLD
• Offshore winds north of the low, strong SE south of the low- winds may tend NW through NENSW Sat a’noon
• Large swells developing Sun, biggest in NENSW with W winds tending to S’ly gales
• Large swells through next week, tending to large SE-E/SE groundswells with light winds Tues/Wed
• Wind shifting more S/SE-SE Thurs and then freshening Fri
• Potential for another low to form off North Coast next weekend with large E swells- low confidence so check back Mon for latest update

Recap

Small S swells just showed to 2ft yesterday on the NE Coast of NENSW with tiny surf in SEQLD. Today is seeing more size at S exposed breaks in NENSW with 2-3ft of short period S swell under SW-S winds, remaining tiny in SEQLD.

S swell magnets hoovering up a bit of swell this morning- all hell about to break loose this weekend

This weekend (Aug 2-3)

A wild weekend is ahead as a complex low forms off the NENSW/SEQLD coast, backed by a strong high in the bight which moves SE of Tasmania over the weekend. By dawn Sat a low will be spinning up, likely just north-east of Coffs, with a secondary centre in the Coral Sea. By late morning into the afternoon, near gales to gales form off the Southern flank of the NSW low extending down through the MNC and Hunter, with offshore W even tending NW or N/NW winds through NENSW and SEQLD.  A more W’ly flow in SEQLD is expected, tending more NW south of the border.  South of Coffs looks like howling onshores developing through Sat- but keep eyes on local winds through that area.

 Smaller than you expect for most of the day with windy 3ft surf early, trending upwards through the a’noon but unlikely to exceed 5-6ft of windy short range swell. Surf remains small north of the border on Sat.

O’night Sat into Sun the Coral Sea low will merge with the NSW low forming a deep and powerful low pressure system in the Northern Tasman. The merged low centre then rotates around the edge of the gyre, back SW then NW then NE, getting close to the North Coast and bringing S’ly gales to the North Coast and Gold Coast. 

E’ly severe gales to potential storm force winds develop about the southern flank of the new super low along with the S’ly gales on the western flank. Both those fetches will generate large and powerful surf through Sun. Across Northern NSW we should see building surf  at first light, in the 5-6ft range, building further to 8-10ft+ wth bigger sets through the day, even bigger on the MNC where victory at sea conditions are expected (12-15ft with massive seas). Smaller surf north of the border with the Gold Coast building from 2-3ft into the 8-10ft range across the Tweed Bar, grading smaller into the Coolangatta Points and with large surf at Currumbin and Burleigh (6-8ft). Not much of an increase expected on the Sunshine Coast until late in the day where surf builds to 3-5ft across exposed breaks. 

Next week (Aug 4 onwards)

E’ly gales in a broad fetch remain into the new week with a massive high new New Zealand (1042hPa) acting as supporting cradle for the Tasman low which will be drifting eastwards to a slot north of the North Island. If anything that eastwards movement looks slower than modelled on Wed so large surf will persist at elevated levels for longer. 

Period draws out a notch Mon so we may see even larger sets at big wave spots- up in the 8ft+ range or above in NENSW, smaller 6-8ft on the Gold Coast, 5-6ft on the Sunshine Coast. Lingering S’ly flow still looks to be an issue. We should see a morning SW-S/SW flow, although with lump and bump still around before winds tend mod/fresh S’ly. Surf stays large and pumping all day, maxing out most breaks. 

Just a small easing into Tues- 6-8 with bigger sets still a possibility and lots of juice in the sets. We should see a true land breeze through the morning before a light SE breeze so if you want it big and clean, Tuesday now looks like the day.  Swell direction should be more favourable to the Sunshine Coast through Tues and Wed so expect more of the size there on these days.

Only another very slight easing into Wed expected with 8ft sets still in the water, but slowing down and becoming less consistent (more 5-6ft). Clean again with light offshores tending to light S/SE breezes as a new high pressure ridge builds in weakly.

That ridge will see a strengthening S-SE flow through Thurs- still W-SW inshore early before tending S-S/SE at mod paces. Surf will still be elevated with 5-6ft sets, slowly backing down through the day. Don’t be surprised if there are still 8ft sneaker sets through the morning. It’s an incredibly active sea state.

Unfortunately Fri now looks to be marred by the strengthening high pressure ridge with winds freshening from the S/SE-SE and even tending E/SE through the day. That will see deteriorating surface conditions at all but the most sheltered points with E’ly swells still hanging in the 4-5ft range.

We may even see another strong  E’ly swell next weekend as a very strong high moves SE of Tasmania and another low forms off the NSW Coast. Models have been flip flopping on that possibility all week. We’ll flag it for now and see how it looks Mon. 

Until then, batten down the hatches and have a great weekend!