Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Nov 27)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr) 

• Morning peak then easing NE windswells Thurs with clean conditions possible
• Small on Fri with variable winds
• Small NE windswells rebuilding on Sat with strengthening N-NE winds
• Tricky winds Sun with fun NE windswells
• Winds shift offshore Mon with small, fun swells
• Shifty winds next week with small NE-E/NE swells

Recap

NE windswells were in the 3ft range yesterday under a mod/fresh N’ly flow with just a brief window of lighter NW-N/NW winds inshore early. Same again today with N’ly winds expected to tend N/NE-NE at mod/fresh paces and NE windswell in the 3ft range. 

A few workable walls as NE windswell continues

This week (Nov 27-29)

Very little change since Monday’s notes with slow moving high pressure drifting towards New Zealand and a trough and cut-off low approaching from the inland and bight respectively. The N’ly flow gets briefly disrupted by the trough in temperate areas before resetting again for the weekend, generating more NE windswell, with no change to the N’ly pattern in sub-tropical areas. A tradewind flow focussed around the New Caledonia area and out into the South Pacific slot will maintain fun E’ly tradewind surf in the sub-tropics.

In the short run, we’ll see the trough disrupt the northerly flow, with light NW tending W winds early, swirling around and likely tending SE-E/SE in the a’noon. Be prepared for winds around the compass though as the troughy area wavers around the coast. 

Easing NE windswells into Thurs as the fetch gets disrupted, so get in early for some clean 3ft which eases through the day.

Friday should bottom out with mostly minor E/NE swell filtering down from the tradewind fetch, likely offering occ.2ft sets under a light/variable wind flow as the trough wanders around the Sydney basin. By later a’noon we should see the winds shift back E/NE-NE at light paces.

This weekend (Nov 30-Dec 1)

N’ly winds re-strengthen Sat as the cut-off low approaches from the interior and reinforcing high pressure slips in under Tasmania. With the flow strengthening and a proximate fetch off the NSW Central/Southern Coast we should see NE windswell rebuild through the day into the 3, possibly 4ft range. No great quality but there’ll be enough energy for a shortboard surf.

Trickier winds Sun as the cut-off low exits the Gippsland Coast. We should see a general tendency for winds to shift NW, possibly even W/NW-W through the day. Early NE windswell in the 3ft range, eases back a notch during the day, but with a chance of greater quality as winds shift more offshore.

Next week (Dec2 onwards)

The cut-off low moves offshore Mon with an offshore flow for the morning before light NE seabreezes. Clean NE windswell and small E/NE swells offer up a 2ft wave.

Things get shifty from there as a trough line looks to stall out on the Central NSW coastline.

Small NE windswells from winds feeding into the trough will put a floor under wave heights but nothing over weak 2ft windswell is expected.

Winds will be swirling around the trough line with a weak S-SE flow looking likely Wed into Thurs. Don’t put much store on that though as any shift in the trough will reverse winds. 

Further ahead and we may see a front late next week, not looking like much of a swell producer at this stage.

A weak low drifting south out of the tradewind fetch may bring some small E/NE swell late next week, possibly up into the 2-3ft range Fri. 

A strong high cell moving into the Bight suggests a SE surge up the coast medium term - possibly second week of December and may clear the weak, troughy pattern from the Tasman.

In short, pounce on any little clean windows of NE windswell, that looks to be the best of it for a while.

Seeya Fri.