Punchy east swell for the next few days; then to the south
Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Mon Jan 20)
Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)
- Solid E swell building Tues, easing Wed, with good morning winds
- S'ly change Wed PM
- Average mix of (slowly) improving swells Thurs as winds abate
- Fun clean leftovers Fri ahead of a vigorous S'ly change
- Nice mix of S'ly swells Sat with light winds
- Smaller Sun with good AM winds
- More S'ly swell next week!
Recap
The weekend delivered wild and wooly conditions with strong winds from the S/SE, and a mix of east and south swells up into the 6-8ft range on Saturday, down to 6ft+ on Sunday. Surface conditions improved markedly overnight as winds swung light offshore in a few spots, and a new SE swell has filled in to replace the easing short range S’ly swell (though the E’ly swell is persisting). Wave heights have hovered around the 5-6ft range for most of the day. Winds have gone back onshore this afternoon though it’s not too strong.
Strong lines on the Northern Beaches mid-late Monday afternoon
This week (Jan 21 - 24)
There’s still more to come!
A final low pressure system associated with our recent complex synoptic pattern moved from a position north of New Zealand last week, into the north-eastern Tasman Sea over the weekend. It’s now moving towards the Australian East Coast, but weakening - however has a healthy easterly fetch on its southerly flank.
This is generating a new E’ly groundswell that will arrive tomorrow - probably not in the water at first light, but should be across most coasts by mid-late morning, ahead of an afternoon peak that’ll probably hold into Wednesday morning before then easing.
Again, the models are not resolving this setup very well, estimating a peak tomorrow lunchtime in the 3-4ft range (and suggesting slightly smaller surf for the afternoon and Wednesday). However, I think - after an undersized dawn patrol - we’ll see an increase into the 5-6ft range into the afternoon, with size then easing from 4-6ft to 3-4ft on Wednesday.
Tuesday should also have some easing SE swell in the water too.
Conditions look great on Tuesday morning with light offshore winds ahead of afternoon NE sea breezes. So the best surf will be right at the start of the event when the swell front kicks in, but before the wind swings onshore just after lunch.
Wednesday morning should see a brief period of light morning winds before N/NE breezes start to freshen from mid-morning, ahead of an approaching southerly change that’s due into the Illawarra early afternoon, Sydney mid-afternoon and the Hunter mid-late afternoon. So don’t delay your surf, early will be best.
Thursday will see the southerly flow ease back but probably linger enough to maintain below-average surface conditions. Leftover E’ly swell will be accentuated with short range S/ly tending SE swell from the fetch trailing the change, maybe some 3-4ft sets at south facing beaches but nothing of any major quality (smaller elsewhere).
We'll also see a small pulse of E'ly swell from a reintensification of easterly winds just west of New Zealand's North Island later today and tomorrow - just enough to provide a few 2-3ft sets into Thursday afternoon. This will probably provide the best waves of the day as winds should be light around this time.
Friday has another vigorous southerly change on the way, so early morning will provide the best conditions with light winds and a small mix of leftover swells from the south and east (2-3ft sets at the swell magnets, smaller elsewhere). The afternoon is likely to see a rapid increase in local windswell but quality won’t be high at all.
This weekend (25 - 26)
Saturday has a few swell sources that’ll provide worthwhile energy across Southern NSW.
First of all, strong winds trailing Friday’s change should generate 3-4ft of short range energy at south facing beaches (note: some models suggest a deep surface low may develop in the lee of the change, which could generate larger surf, but the progged alignment isn’t great so I’m pegging back expectations for now).
Concurrently, we’ll see a slightly longer period S’ly swell push through, originating from a polar low traversing the waters below Tasmania, on Tuesday and Wednesday this week. I’m not expecting any more size from this source (across the coast), but it should help to bump up the consistency compared to a single-source event.
Both of these swells will then fade through Sunday, only to be replaced by another south swell in the afternoon, from a front pushing just south of Tasmania on Friday and Saturday. As such the early session may be a little undersized but I’m hopeful for an afternoon increase.
Present indications are for light winds and sea breezes both days, but I’ll firm up the specs on Wednesday.
Next week (27 onwards)
Looks like a boisterous pattern through the Southern Ocean next week which will probably lead to another round or two of punchy south swells. Either way, lots to look forward to.
Comments
After four months of virtually no waves we get two weeks of some good swell even
some chunky waves and BOOM lower back just explodes for absolutely no reason
just woke up with it. It sucks getting old and ive never been fitter.
Get some waves for m boys
Some chunky rippy mothers yesterday arvo on the beach Evo. Hadn't been cleaned up by a 6fter in a while - almost forgot what it was like. Sat half way out to sea waiting on the bombs and didn't get many but the few were damn good. Backed off this morning a fair bit. Was thinking yesterday the banks had improved but it looks pretty long shore gutters this morning.
Echo, FrazP's comments, got a few at local next to home yesterday evening. Easy 6 ft on the sets. Copped a rogue on the head after rocking off into a offshore channel and a rogue came through and swallowed up half of the channel haha. Get well soon Evo.