Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Fri Jan 17)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Large windy waves on Saturday
• Very ordinary but slowly improving conditions on Sunday with easing winds and swells
• Large SE groundswell Mon with light winds
• Solid E'ly swell Tues PM and Wed AM, though winds will freshen N/NE
• S'ly change Wed PM
• S'ly groundswell next Saturday (or thereabouts)

Recap

Large windy swells built to 6-8ft on Thursday and are now pushing a stormy 8-10ft at south facing beaches. S/SE winds are currently gusting 65kts at Wattamolla (just south of Sydney) and reached 55kts at Norah Head (Central Coast) earlier this afternoon.

Solid on the Cenny Coast this arvo

This weekend (Jan 18 - 19)

In general, it’s a bleak weekend ahead.

Winds are modeled to veer slightly more to the S/SE thru’ SE early Saturday morning, maintaining gale force strength (down a touch from this afternoon, but only a little). So conditions will be craptacular almost everywhere but there’ll be waves on offer if you’re prepared to scout around the sheltered southern corners and novelty spots. 

Wave heights will remain elevated, comprising a mix of short range southerly swell and a smaller underlying E/NE groundswell from a tropical system that developed in the north-eastern Tasman Sea earlier this week.

Wave heights will probably come down a touch from today but exposed spots should still be pushing 6-8ft+.

Winds will ease more noticeably on Sunday and probably veer slightly more S/SE thru’ S’ly. The chance for a brief window of early light SW winds for Sunday has somewhat evaporated across locations between the Hunter and Illawarra, though it’s certainly a chance along the Far South and South Coast. Mind you, we’ll need a stiff offshore for a couple of hours to iron out the bumps and this isn’t likely, so expect wobbly conditions at best in these parts.

Wave heights will still be quite solid, at least 4-5ft and maybe some leftover 6ft sets across the Hunter and Central Coasts but conditions really won’t be very attractive. Much better surf is expected in the days following so unless you’re totally desperate, give the early a miss. But, we should see a slow improvement throughout the day so perhaps pencil in an afternoon session where the bumpy conditions may upgrade slightly to become lumpy.

Next week (Jan 20 onwards)

As mentioned in Wednesday’s notes, the Tasman Sea currently has a number of active low pressure centers, driving strong winds from a couple of directions across various parts of the basin.

The best low (for Southern NSW surfers) is currently forming off the SW tip of New Zealand’s South Island, and will track north-west towards Australia over the weekend, setting up a solid SE groundswell for Monday.

The models have cooled a touch with wind strength projections associated with the low, but there’s a decent captured fetch being set up and I think this will over-compensate to some degree - so despite our surf model only calling 4ft for Monday, I still think we’ll see some of the region’s more reliable reef breaks pushing up into the 6ft range, even a handful of 6-8ft bombs at times. 

Locations not directly open to the SE won't pick up as much size, so southern corners and sheltered points should have smaller, more manageable options.

The good news is that light variable winds are expected on Monday as the weekend's coastal low weakens and drifts north-east into the Tasman, so surface conditions should clean up nicely. Exposed spots will probably still have a few lumps through the lineup but in general I’m expecting really good, solid waves to kick start the working week.

But it doesn’t end there.

As also mentioned in Wednesday’s notes, another one of the weekend’s low pressure systems - this one just north of New Zealand - will track into the north-eastern Tasman Sea on Monday, strengthening easterly gales that will generate a solid E’ly swell due to arrive sometime on Tuesday and hold into Wednesday morning.

The models are still not 100% on this scenario right now, and it's quite likely that Tuesday morning may be between-swells (i.e. undersized) but Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday morning are currently on track for some solid waves in the 4-6ft range.

We will however be at risk of freshening N/NE winds at this time as a front approaches from the south-west. So, options may be limited to northern corners. But for now it’s another great swell event to track over the coming days.

Otherwise the long term has a local S’ly change for Wednesday afternoon and a solid long range S’ly groundswell from an associated polar low that will track below Tasmania mid-week. This swell is expected to arrive across Southern NSW around Saturday (or thereabouts) and should provide 4-6ft surf at reliable south swell magnets. 

So, there’s plenty on the boil.. Have a great weekend and see you Monday!