COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster

Craig's picture
Craig started the topic in Wednesday, 18 Mar 2020 at 7:44pm

I've created a spreadsheet forecast which I'll update as we go..

There's also a website with live running data.. https://sites.google.com/view/stayhomeaustralia

Supafreak's picture
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Supafreak Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 5:52pm
JQ wrote:

Here's a rational, clearly laid out explanation of how the '20x less likely' figure is arrived at.

https://theconversation.com/your-unvaccinated-friend-is-roughly-20-times...

It's fairly logical and easy to follow. The information from the CDC at the address below in no way contradicts this at all.

https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2021/s0730-mmwr-covid-19.html

Thanks JQ , I was actually hoping for something from a well respected peer reviewed science journal but guess I will have to settle for the conversation.

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 5:55pm
JQ wrote:

Here's a rational, clearly laid out explanation of how the '20x less likely' figure is arrived at.

https://theconversation.com/your-unvaccinated-friend-is-roughly-20-times...

It's fairly logical and easy to follow. The information from the CDC at the address below in no way contradicts this at all.

https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2021/s0730-mmwr-covid-19.html

Looks like you must’ve missed the 2nd paragraph there mate. Here it is :

“Today, some of those data were published in CDC’s Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR), demonstrating that Delta infection resulted in similarly high SARS-CoV-2 viral loads in vaccinated and unvaccinated people. “

As for the complete refusal to counter the other link and your preference for disparaging the motivations of the authors….yeah, I’m not sure if that argument actually works anywhere beyond the playground.

bluediamond's picture
bluediamond's picture
bluediamond Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 5:56pm
JQ wrote:

Here's a rational, clearly laid out explanation of how the '20x less likely' figure is arrived at.

https://theconversation.com/your-unvaccinated-friend-is-roughly-20-times...

It's fairly logical and easy to follow. The information from the CDC at the address below in no way contradicts this at all.

https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2021/s0730-mmwr-covid-19.html

I could only find this in 2nd link JQ
"Today, some of those data were published in CDC’s Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR), demonstrating that Delta infection resulted in similarly high SARS-CoV-2 viral loads in vaccinated and unvaccinated people. High viral loads suggest an increased risk of transmission and raised concern that, unlike with other variants, vaccinated people infected with Delta can transmit the virus. This finding is concerning and was a pivotal discovery leading to CDC’s updated mask recommendation. The masking recommendation was updated to ensure the vaccinated public would not unknowingly transmit virus to others, including their unvaccinated or immunocompromised loved ones."

JQ's picture
JQ's picture
JQ Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 5:56pm

Not sure if this link is going to work properly as it's interactive but anyway...

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cumulative-excess-deaths-per-million-...

This is a graphic that shows cumulative excess deaths per million, by default the time period is set from Jan 5, 2020 to Nov 14, 2021.

What this shows is how many more deaths than expected there were per million people over the aforementioned period. There is no differentiation between those who died with covid, from covid or from anything else. This merely shows how many more deaths there were than statistical trends predicted there should have been, this is a useful measure of the impact of the pandemic on an overall society scale.

COVID tests have no bearing what so ever on this data.

If you hover your mouse over the USA, you'll see the cumulative excess deaths per million over that roughly 2 year period. When I do that, the figure I see is 2490.82. From what I can find from a quick google, the US population is about 329 million, multiplying these figures together we come to 819,479. That is how many more people have died over that period than statistically should have. 819,479 people.

But to certain posters, 'that's just life'. A small price (for others) to pay to further a shitty grievance narrative.

bluediamond's picture
bluediamond's picture
bluediamond Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 5:57pm

whoops. Snap.

JQ's picture
JQ's picture
JQ Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 5:59pm
Supafreak wrote:

Thanks JQ , I was actually hoping for something from a well respected peer reviewed science journal but guess I will have to settle for the conversation.

No worries Supa, not sure what you mean you say 'settle', you've frequently gone much lower than that. If you actually read the article, it is not a scientific study, it is explaining the statistics more than anything.

indo-dreaming's picture
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indo-dreaming Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 6:01pm
Vic Local wrote:

Australia has been one of the least impacted countries. This is both in terms of health and economic .

Yep Scomo did a pretty decent job of handling Covid from both a health perspective and an economical perspective, the only major fuck up was in Victoria from a guy who isn't a team player and wanted to do things differently to other states and fucked up quarantine management and even after an enquiry they still didn't find out who made the decision.

And no the vax rollout wasn't botched up, we had Astrazeneca quite early a vax not based on mrna tech so in theory the vax that should have had least vax hesitancy and a vax that can be produced here, unfortunately it had issues as we know with blood clotting.

New Zealand was in exactly the same position as us by that time much of the world really needed vaccines and we didn't so we went to the back of the line, which makes sense.

We now are looking at one of the highest vaccination rates in the world.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 6:00pm
bluediamond wrote:

You're right Andy.M. It's purely an assumption based on the growing numbers of protesters every weekend, the growing number of protests, the more coverage these protests are getting in the media, even if they don't want to cover them, (hard to hide 100,000 plus people), but also people i talk to, seeing more and more people voicing their concerns on social media who wouldn't have before. That statement was misleading. To clarify, it's my assumption.

In order to contribute to the occasional bout of polite discourse contained within this thread, can I offer an alternative viewpoint?

Let's imagine that for whatever reason, the government had adopted an entirely different approach, perhaps one more inline with the wishes of the anti-vaxxers. Or whatever. Choose something different to what's on the menu right now.

I'd wager there'd be at least an equal number of people protesting the government's strategy, and that over time, if the government held firm in its views, the number of protesters would slowly increase.

Point being: I'm unsurprised that there is some form of opposition to what's going on. I think this was inevitable no matter what happened.

AndyM's picture
AndyM's picture
AndyM Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 6:01pm
bluediamond wrote:
AndyM wrote:

Again

@bluediamond
"i'm part of a growing majority of people asking legitimate questions,"

I'm kinda intrigued as to how you figure this.

You're right Andy.M. It's purely an assumption based on the growing numbers of protesters every weekend, the growing number of protests, the more coverage these protests are getting in the media, even if they don't want to cover them, (hard to hide 100,000 plus people), but also people i talk to, seeing more and more people voicing their concerns on social media who wouldn't have before. That statement was misleading. To clarify, it's my assumption.

Cheers mate.
Out of interest, 100,000 people is 0.4% of the population.

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 6:01pm
Roadkill wrote:
JQ wrote:

Interesting to read Blowin's link.

Have a look in the 'about us' section:

"A group of multi-disciplinary professionals, who perceived the global reaction to Covid, and lockdown in particular, as overwrought and damaging to the point of causing a great tear in the fabric of society, established PANDA (Pandemics Data & Analytics) in April 2020. As a politically and economically independent organisation, PANDA seeks to develop science-based explanations and test them against international data. Policy recommendations for governments and other institutions can be developed from these. PANDA stands for open science and rational debate, for replacing flawed science with good science and for retrieving liberty and prosperity from the clutches of a dystopian “new normal”."

So there's their agenda, laid out pretty plainly.

https://www.pandata.org/about/

And that is why anything blowin posts is garbage..with a bias.

Come on bloke. You’ve made fifty posts today and not one of them has contributed a single worthy point of discussion and not even a single truth related to covid. You’d just said you were done for the day because you couldn’t back up your claim and so you decided that discretion was the better part of valour. Yet here you are back, so it seems even that was not factual.

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 6:06pm
thermalben wrote:
bluediamond wrote:

You're right Andy.M. It's purely an assumption based on the growing numbers of protesters every weekend, the growing number of protests, the more coverage these protests are getting in the media, even if they don't want to cover them, (hard to hide 100,000 plus people), but also people i talk to, seeing more and more people voicing their concerns on social media who wouldn't have before. That statement was misleading. To clarify, it's my assumption.

In order to contribute to the occasional bout of polite discourse contained within this thread, can I offer an alternative viewpoint?

Let's imagine that for whatever reason, the government had adopted an entirely different approach, perhaps one more inline with the wishes of the anti-vaxxers. Or whatever. Choose something different to what's on the menu right now.

I'd wager there'd be at least an equal number of people protesting the government's strategy, and that over time, if the government held firm in its views, the number of protesters would slowly increase.

Point being: I'm unsurprised that there is some form of opposition to what's going on. I think this was inevitable no matter what happened.

Differing opinions and protest are the hallmarks of democracy.

Segregating society, encouraging uncivil division and the demonisation of a subset of that society is not the hallmark of a functioning democracy.

Nor is the punitive apartheid situation whereby a subset of our community is arbitrarily denied employment and access to public life, community and infrastructure.

None of the above is found in a functioning society. That is the main issue, not the fact that people disagree with government policies.

The transition towards inequitable authoritarianism was not inevitable.

Supafreak's picture
Supafreak's picture
Supafreak Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 6:06pm

JQ , there’s a good reason that the US had such a high death rate . People would go to hospital feeling unwell, tested and confirmed that they had covid . Then they were sent home and told to take tylenol . After 2 weeks people were getting admitted to hospital in advanced stages of the disease. Do you think the medical advice was appropriate ? Other doctors got together and tried everything possible. Today those doctors are the bad guys.

bluediamond's picture
bluediamond's picture
bluediamond Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 6:06pm
AndyM wrote:
bluediamond wrote:
AndyM wrote:

Again

@bluediamond
"i'm part of a growing majority of people asking legitimate questions,"

I'm kinda intrigued as to how you figure this.

You're right Andy.M. It's purely an assumption based on the growing numbers of protesters every weekend, the growing number of protests, the more coverage these protests are getting in the media, even if they don't want to cover them, (hard to hide 100,000 plus people), but also people i talk to, seeing more and more people voicing their concerns on social media who wouldn't have before. That statement was misleading. To clarify, it's my assumption.

Cheers mate.
Out of interest, 100,000 people is 0.4% of the population.

How dare u expose my shitty maths!! But yeah still feel like there's a big shift.

JQ's picture
JQ's picture
JQ Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 6:11pm
Blowin wrote:

Looks like you must’ve missed the 2nd paragraph there mate. Here it is :

“Today, some of those data were published in CDC’s Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR), demonstrating that Delta infection resulted in similarly high SARS-CoV-2 viral loads in vaccinated and unvaccinated people. “

As for the complete refusal to counter the other link and your preference for disparaging the motivations of the authors….yeah, I’m not sure if that argument actually works anywhere beyond the playground.

Ah, the playground, setting a higher bar than discourse with your good self then mate. The link you posted is clearly from people who have an agenda, and that's fine, anyone who says they don't in something like this is almost certainly lying. It is however important context to the information you provide.

Now, yes, you are correct, vaccinated people can present with similarly high viral loads, but that's not the whole story.

Vaccinated people clear their viral loads much faster:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.28.21261295v1

"Conclusion The mRNA vaccines are highly effective at preventing symptomatic and severe COVID-19 associated with B.1.617.2 infection. Vaccination is associated with faster decline in viral RNA load and a robust serological response. Vaccination remains a key strategy for control of COVID-19 pandemic."

The above, combined with the fact that a vaccinated individual IF infected is less likely to suffer symptomatic (coughing, sneezing - expelling virus containing droplets) COVID-19 means that a vaccinated person is far less likely to transmit.

Roadkill's picture
Roadkill's picture
Roadkill Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 6:12pm
Blowin wrote:
Roadkill wrote:
JQ wrote:

Interesting to read Blowin's link.

Have a look in the 'about us' section:

"A group of multi-disciplinary professionals, who perceived the global reaction to Covid, and lockdown in particular, as overwrought and damaging to the point of causing a great tear in the fabric of society, established PANDA (Pandemics Data & Analytics) in April 2020. As a politically and economically independent organisation, PANDA seeks to develop science-based explanations and test them against international data. Policy recommendations for governments and other institutions can be developed from these. PANDA stands for open science and rational debate, for replacing flawed science with good science and for retrieving liberty and prosperity from the clutches of a dystopian “new normal”."

So there's their agenda, laid out pretty plainly.

https://www.pandata.org/about/

And that is why anything blowin posts is garbage..with a bias.

Come on bloke. You’ve made fifty posts today and not one of them has contributed a single worthy point of discussion and not even a single truth related to covid. You’d just said you were done for the day because you couldn’t back up your claim and so you decided that discretion was the better part of valour. Yet here you are back, so it seems even that was not factual.

Yawn. Nope, still not interested.

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 6:17pm
JQ wrote:

Not sure if this link is going to work properly as it's interactive but anyway...

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cumulative-excess-deaths-per-million-...

This is a graphic that shows cumulative excess deaths per million, by default the time period is set from Jan 5, 2020 to Nov 14, 2021.

What this shows is how many more deaths than expected there were per million people over the aforementioned period. There is no differentiation between those who died with covid, from covid or from anything else. This merely shows how many more deaths there were than statistical trends predicted there should have been, this is a useful measure of the impact of the pandemic on an overall society scale.

COVID tests have no bearing what so ever on this data.

If you hover your mouse over the USA, you'll see the cumulative excess deaths per million over that roughly 2 year period. When I do that, the figure I see is 2490.82. From what I can find from a quick google, the US population is about 329 million, multiplying these figures together we come to 819,479. That is how many more people have died over that period than statistically should have. 819,479 people.

But to certain posters, 'that's just life'. A small price (for others) to pay to further a shitty grievance narrative.

How many of the excess deaths are the result of the postponed surgeries, suicides, overdoses, domestic assaults, additional drinking and drink driving through unstructured living AKA unemployment and work from home, undetected and untreated diseases , home renovation injuries, liver destruction, stress induced disease , exacerbated lifestyle diseases due to confinement etc etc etc from the covid mitigation measures ?

As your post states, there is no way to ascribe fatalities to varying causes and no way to establish true contributing factors towards death. Your intention to link it to deaths from covid has no evidentiary basis.

Supafreak's picture
Supafreak's picture
Supafreak Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 6:16pm
JQ wrote:
Blowin wrote:

Looks like you must’ve missed the 2nd paragraph there mate. Here it is :

“Today, some of those data were published in CDC’s Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR), demonstrating that Delta infection resulted in similarly high SARS-CoV-2 viral loads in vaccinated and unvaccinated people. “

As for the complete refusal to counter the other link and your preference for disparaging the motivations of the authors….yeah, I’m not sure if that argument actually works anywhere beyond the playground.

Ah, the playground, setting a higher bar than discourse with your good self then mate. The link you posted is clearly from people who have an agenda, and that's fine, anyone who says they don't in something like this is almost certainly lying. It is however important context to the information you provide.

Now, yes, you are correct, vaccinated people can present with similarly high viral loads, but that's not the whole story.

Vaccinated people clear their viral loads much faster:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.28.21261295v1

"Conclusion The mRNA vaccines are highly effective at preventing symptomatic and severe COVID-19 associated with B.1.617.2 infection. Vaccination is associated with faster decline in viral RNA load and a robust serological response. Vaccination remains a key strategy for control of COVID-19 pandemic."

The above, combined with the fact that a vaccinated individual IF infected is less likely to suffer symptomatic (coughing, sneezing - expelling virus containing droplets) COVID-19 means that a vaccinated person is far less likely to transmit.

JQ this is a pre-print , it hasn’t been peer reviewed, if I were to put up non peer reviewed paper then certain individuals would be loosing their shit .

sypkan's picture
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sypkan Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 6:30pm
Vic Local wrote:

"no, Im saying we need to take stock of what just happened"
OK sypkan. Let's do that.
Australia has been one of the least impacted countries. This is both in terms of health and economic impacts. This is due to a variety of reasons. I will list a handful of major ones.
1. Luckily we are an island
2. The premiers treated covid as a health problem primarily and stared down the idiot PM who wanted to go to the footy and protect the economy first.
3. We have an advanced health system.
4. We have a very high vaccination rate due to sensible policies and a culture of looking after ya mates.
When you compare Australia with other western nations, we have done very well.
Australia did have longer lockdowns than most other nations because of two main reasons.
1. The vaccine rollout was botched. Scumo fucked it up big time and it started 6 months later than Europe and North America.
2. The general public saw what happened in Europe, India, USA etc and accepted lockdowns as the least worst option.
Australia, with 90% + vaccination rates, low case numbers, a good hospital system, and summer on the way is in a vastly superior position compared to all other western nations. (with the exception of NZ which is a tie).
sypkan, you've sooked about our governments' response for 2 years now. Anyone with any brains (not you supafreak, burleigh, blowin et al) who has followed your rants knows Australia would be in terrible state if you got your way.
You've cried so hard, I don't understand why you don't emigrate to a country that has implemented covid policies more to your liking. Try England or the USA.
You'd have something to really cry about if you were in those countries this coming winter.

well that's not taking stock vicvocal, that's you yelling at me with your usual bias political point scoring dribble...

again...

nothing new in your list, most those points i've made myself, if you ever cared to actually listen...

the context of the conversation was you and your band of merry zealots making the perplexing point that niger's largely non existent health system is the reason niger didn't get smashed by covid, ...despite their government doing essentially nothing...

interesting 'theory'...

australia, one of the most (over) reactive government in the world... versus... developing niger and others, who essentially did nothing....

that's the taking stock, not you yelling...

as to the rest of your post... more absolute bullshit...

again..

I haven't been 'sooking' about anything for two years, if you had the facilities of comprehension, a functioning memory, and a mind capable anything beyond self righteous drubbling anger... you would know that I advoated many restrictions and actions well before even your beloved state premier's actions were actioned, and have supported all sorts of measures throughout this mysterious two year account of me you have imagined...

mate, you don't do comprehension...

context... nuance... non- bias... critical thought... civility... thinking generally... anything it seens...

beyond angry man propaganda and belittling

mate, give up on the character assasination routine, it's tedious, especially coming from one so clearly lacking character

you are ...officially, the biggest, most deranged delusional, egocentric moron I have ever encountered...

so nice work there

but seriously, get help, all that hostility is not good for you, your cause, or society

JQ's picture
JQ's picture
JQ Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 6:21pm
Supafreak wrote:

JQ , there’s a good reason that the US had such a high death rate . People would go to hospital feeling unwell, tested and confirmed that they had covid . Then they were sent home and told to take tylenol . After 2 weeks people were getting admitted to hospital in advanced stages of the disease. Do you think the medical advice was appropriate ? Other doctors got together and tried everything possible. Today those doctors are the bad guys.

Those treatments were unproven Supa - remember, some people are stupid enough to inject and/or drink bleach.
Personally, having no medical training outside of a first aid course I did 10+ years ago, I can't really offer a qualified assessment of it, but as a whole I trust the medical profession and by and large they were on the same page.

I watched a few of thing you linked and the doctors promoting various treatments were certainly in earnest, but my suspicion is that they were perhaps not looking at it from a society wide perspective, the way that a chief medical officer has to for instance. As an example - which may not be correct for all the proposed treatments - a treatment which requires intensive supervision and administration by a doctor is all but useless in a pandemic, as there aren't enough doctors to treat all the sick in this manner. Just an example of how a doctor may be correct, but not looking at it from a society wide perspective.

How many people do you think decided not get vaccinated based on the various treatments that were not proven to a sufficient level to garner official health department approval? How many lives do you think this has cost?

JQ's picture
JQ's picture
JQ Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 6:25pm
Blowin wrote:

How many of the excess deaths are the result of the postponed surgeries, suicides, overdoses, domestic assaults, additional drinking and drink driving through unstructured living AKA unemployment and work from home, undetected and untreated diseases , home renovation injuries, liver destruction, stress induced disease , exacerbated lifestyle diseases due to confinement etc etc etc from the covid mitigation measures ?

As your post states, there is no way to ascribe fatalities to varying causes and no way to establish true contributing factors towards death. Your intention to link it to deaths from covid has no evidentiary basis.

You are misrepresenting me Blowin, I am specifically stating that you cannot ascribe those figures to deaths from covid. I am saying they sum up the overall societal impact of the pandemic, nothing more, nothing less. As I said in my original post:

"What this shows is how many more deaths than expected there were per million people over the aforementioned period. There is no differentiation between those who died with covid, from covid or from anything else. This merely shows how many more deaths there were than statistical trends predicted there should have been, this is a useful measure of the impact of the pandemic on an overall society scale."

Stop putting words in my mouth.

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 6:32pm

Wow, sypkan, still comparing us to Niger.
This is idiotic in the extreme and you know it. What is it with conservatives fighting even harder when they know they are wrong?
Oh and ID, your love for Scumo is getting a little silly. Do you seriously think he's performed well during the pandemic? He abdicated his role in quarantine to the states, tried to undermine state border closures, fucked up the vaccine rollout, left the aged care sector woefully exposed, and still hasn't built any fit-for-purpose quarantine facilities after 2 fucking years.
I'd say Australia has done very well despite the bloke from marketing not because of him.

Supafreak's picture
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Supafreak Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 6:48pm
JQ wrote:
Supafreak wrote:

JQ , there’s a good reason that the US had such a high death rate . People would go to hospital feeling unwell, tested and confirmed that they had covid . Then they were sent home and told to take tylenol . After 2 weeks people were getting admitted to hospital in advanced stages of the disease. Do you think the medical advice was appropriate ? Other doctors got together and tried everything possible. Today those doctors are the bad guys.

Those treatments were unproven Supa - remember, some people are stupid enough to inject and/or drink bleach.
Personally, having no medical training outside of a first aid course I did 10+ years ago, I can't really offer a qualified assessment of it, but as a whole I trust the medical profession and by and large they were on the same page.

I watched a few of thing you linked and the doctors promoting various treatments were certainly in earnest, but my suspicion is that they were perhaps not looking at it from a society wide perspective, the way that a chief medical officer has to for instance. As an example - which may not be correct for all the proposed treatments - a treatment which requires intensive supervision and administration by a doctor is all but useless in a pandemic, as there aren't enough doctors to treat all the sick in this manner. Just an example of how a doctor may be correct, but not looking at it from a society wide perspective.

How many people do you think decided not get vaccinated based on the various treatments that were not proven to a sufficient level to garner official health department approval? How many lives do you think this has cost?

Those treatments were unproven ? thousands of lives saved by Dr Joseph Varon who is still saving lives today and you say unproven ? 600 patients treated in Australia and none died but again you say treatment is unproven? FMD what would it take ? So JQ you believe go home and isolate take tylenol is the best advice ? OK , I disagree

JQ's picture
JQ's picture
JQ Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 6:44pm
Blowin wrote:

How many of the excess deaths are the result of the postponed surgeries, suicides, overdoses, domestic assaults, additional drinking and drink driving through unstructured living AKA unemployment and work from home, undetected and untreated diseases , home renovation injuries, liver destruction, stress induced disease , exacerbated lifestyle diseases due to confinement etc etc etc from the covid mitigation measures ?

As your post states, there is no way to ascribe fatalities to varying causes and no way to establish true contributing factors towards death. Your intention to link it to deaths from covid has no evidentiary basis.

To further expand on Blowins post we could look at the official tally of covid deaths from the US which currently sits at 778,489 according to the CDC.

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailydeaths

And compare that figure to the one I extrapolated from the excess death figures of 819,479. This suggest two things to me.
1. The 778,489 figure is probably reasonably accurate.

2. The excess deaths due to the secondary effects of the pandemic, be that related to restrictions causing mental anguish or covid overloaded hospitals having to postpone surgeries and other medical procedures are somewhere around 40,990 - a solid order of magnitude less really.

Also interesting to compare the excess death figures from Australia and the US. Given the US had a comparatively very lax response to the pandemic, while we had one of the strictest responses. As from before, from this location:

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cumulative-excess-deaths-per-million-...

One can see that Australias excess deaths were actually negative! On a per-capita basis Australia had -31.83 excess deaths per million compared to the US with 2490.82 per million. Now there's obviously loads and loads of factors at play, but it certainly puts a hole in the concept of all these deaths being caused by COVID related restrictions.

JQ's picture
JQ's picture
JQ Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 6:49pm
Supafreak wrote:

[
Those treatments were unproven ? thousands of lives saved by Dr Joseph Varon who is still saving lives today and you say unproven ? 600 patients treated in Australia and none died but again you say treatment is unproven? FMD what would it take ? So JQ you believe go home and isolate take tylenol is the bedt advice ? OK , I disagree

Settle down there tiger, don't put words in my mouth. I agree with the medical consensus, which at this point in time seems to be that the treatments you've spoken about lack the necessary evidence.

Neither you nor I are qualified to properly assess the veracity of the medical trial data Supa. I believe that as a whole the medical profession does have our best interests, as a society, in mind.

What do I believe is the best medical advice? The advice you get from your doctor.

Do you think you'll ever be vindicated? If so, when? Based on what you were saying many months ago, it should've all come out by now...

AndyM's picture
AndyM's picture
AndyM Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 6:50pm

@Blowin
"Differing opinions and protest are the hallmarks of democracy."

The problem is, we've gone so far past differing "opinions", we've gone into the territory of different epistemologies.
That a big problem for a functioning democracy/society.
Especially when the "logos" (reason) in epistemology has to a fair extent been tossed out the window.

sypkan's picture
sypkan's picture
sypkan Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 7:00pm
Vic Local wrote:

Wow, sypkan, still comparing us to Niger.
This is idiotic in the extreme and you know it. What is it with conservatives fighting even harder when they know they are wrong?
Oh and ID, your love for Scumo is getting a little silly. Do you seriously think he's performed well during the pandemic? He abdicated his role in quarantine to the states, tried to undermine state border closures, fucked up the vaccine rollout, left the aged care sector woefully exposed, and still hasn't built any fit-for-purpose quarantine facilities after 2 fucking years.
I'd say Australia has done very well despite the bloke from marketing not because of him.

really?

that's your response?

you are a twit

you are also the 'conservative' champ

answer me this vicvocal... you angry petrified little man conservative fake left twit...

what do you think happened in indonesia?

what changed, worked, didn't work... to such an extent in a developing abysmally vaxxed country...

...that the indo news are now asking... 'did corona just disappear?'

it's quite a turnaround mate, and just so you know, Im probably a lot closer to this little non vax miracle action than you think

and, I can tell you, as someone who's family's grandma 'died with covid' in indo... and who's family works in health care in indo... and who's family had covid at about a 50% rate in indo....

it's quite a turnaround... first hand knowledge champ...

so inform me oh all knowing one... what the hell happened to turn it around?

twit

indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 6:57pm
Vic Local wrote:

Wow, sypkan, still comparing us to Niger.
This is idiotic in the extreme and you know it. What is it with conservatives fighting even harder when they know they are wrong?
Oh and ID, your love for Scumo is getting a little silly. Do you seriously think he's performed well during the pandemic? He abdicated his role in quarantine to the states, tried to undermine state border closures, fucked up the vaccine rollout, left the aged care sector woefully exposed, and still hasn't built any fit-for-purpose quarantine facilities after 2 fucking years.
I'd say Australia has done very well despite the bloke from marketing not because of him.

The results speak for themselves even you admit we have done well..

1. One of the lowest Covid death rates in the world, and would be much much much lower if it wasn't for Dans arrogance and fuck up that fucked up our figures.

2. The predicted recession, last a few months.

3. One of the worlds highest vax rates.

In regard to giving quarantine responsibility to the states, that was a smart move, it would have been crazy for the government to try to oversea quarantine in all states, it's just no realistic.

As for purpose built quarantine centres, which countries have built them? even NZ found the option not viable pretty much every country in the world used hotel quarantine or home quarantine.

It's obviously just a scape goat for Dan because of his huge failures and sadly he got it, 200 million that you can bet will blow out to more than that, and will barely get used.

Supafreak's picture
Supafreak's picture
Supafreak Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 7:00pm
JQ wrote:
Supafreak wrote:

[
Those treatments were unproven ? thousands of lives saved by Dr Joseph Varon who is still saving lives today and you say unproven ? 600 patients treated in Australia and none died but again you say treatment is unproven? FMD what would it take ? So JQ you believe go home and isolate take tylenol is the bedt advice ? OK , I disagree

Settle down there tiger, don't put words in my mouth. I agree with the medical consensus, which at this point in time seems to be that the treatments you've spoken about lack the necessary evidence.

Neither you nor I are qualified to properly assess the veracity of the medical trial data Supa. I believe that as a whole the medical profession does have our best interests, as a society, in mind.

What do I believe is the best medical advice? The advice you get from your doctor.

Do you think you'll ever be vindicated? If so, when? Based on what you were saying many months ago, it should've all come out by now...

Trials are currently being held by the NIH, Oxford university and Monash university , they are 3 trials, 7 more have also started in various universities in the US and around the world, many countries have adopted the protocols outlayed. Japan has no restrictions on doctors prescribing ivermectin. Do you really believe if there was zero evidence all this would be happening ? Enjoy your night

bluediamond's picture
bluediamond's picture
bluediamond Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 7:01pm

Just as an aside on democracy, I was listening to an interview with an American Indian fella on the community radio station the other day and his thoughts on democracy were interesting in that democracy didn't fare well for his people at all, as they were the ones that were sacrificed for democracy...same as here in Australia I guess. I know its a topic for another thread, it was just something that got me thinking.

JQ's picture
JQ's picture
JQ Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 7:02pm
Supafreak wrote:

Trials are currently being held by the NIH, Oxford university and Monash university , they are 3 trials, 7 more have also started in various universities in the US and around the world, many countries have adopted the protocols outlayed. Japan has no restrictions on doctors prescribing ivermectin. Do you really believe if there was zero evidence all this would be happening ? Enjoy your night

Seriously, can you just settle right down. I'm glad there's trials happening, so there should be, I've never said there was zero evidence - stop making stuff up just because you're shitty.

Supafreak's picture
Supafreak's picture
Supafreak Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 7:11pm
JQ wrote:
Supafreak wrote:

Trials are currently being held by the NIH, Oxford university and Monash university , they are 3 trials, 7 more have also started in various universities in the US and around the world, many countries have adopted the protocols outlayed. Japan has no restrictions on doctors prescribing ivermectin. Do you really believe if there was zero evidence all this would be happening ? Enjoy your night

Seriously, can you just settle right down. I'm glad there's trials happening, so there should be, I've never said there was zero evidence - stop making stuff up just because you're shitty.

Settle down ? I think you may be a bit sensitive JQ .

shortenism's picture
shortenism's picture
shortenism Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 7:44pm

Don’t shoot the messenger:

Prof Christian Perronne, confirmed yesterday the rapidly deteriorating situation in Israel and the UK and stated that vaccinated people should be put in quarantine. He went on to say that unvaccinated ppl are not dangerous, vaccinated ppl are dangerous to others.

Roadkill's picture
Roadkill's picture
Roadkill Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 7:54pm
shortenism wrote:

Don’t shoot the messenger:

Prof Christian Perronne, confirmed yesterday the rapidly deteriorating situation in Israel and the UK and stated that vaccinated people should be put in quarantine. He went on to say that unvaccinated ppl are not dangerous, vaccinated ppl are dangerous to others.

Shorty as the messenger, is an idiot.
https://www.logically.ai/factchecks/library/ff3a5e49

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 8:05pm

"Don’t shoot the messenger:"
Oh please,
Prof Christian Perronne has been widely discredited but he's the darling of the conspiracy theorists.
He was interviewed in Hold-up (2020), a French film that puts forward the idea that the coronavirus crisis sits at the center of an elaborate international conspiracy. Despite having been removed from several video-sharing platforms, it has been viewed more than two million times.
Perronne was also dismissed from his university.
shortenism, you're an absolute joke.

Roadkill's picture
Roadkill's picture
Roadkill Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 8:19pm

Shorty…do you ever think to check something before you post it? Just for credibility sake and all.

burleigh's picture
burleigh's picture
burleigh Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 8:43pm

Surprise Surprise. Hospital employees taking gifts from Big Pharma and not declaring

https://www.couriermail.com.au/subscribe/news/1/?sourceCode=CMWEB_WRE170...

shortenism's picture
shortenism's picture
shortenism Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 8:50pm

Far out you guys are wound up, ready to strike! Hahahaha... I keep telling u but u aren’t listening. He was removed from his uni? And? He was in a film suggesting Covid is a global conspiracy? And? Fact checkers said it’s not true? And? He was removed from platforms? And?

All of these things should tell you he is someone worth listening to. Especially as YouTube and FB narrow your reality into their narrative.

burleigh's picture
burleigh's picture
burleigh Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 8:53pm

Peer reviewed study of hydroxychloroquine + zinc + Azithromycin is safe and effective for Covid treatment.

Why has the TGA banned this? Why do they only want to jab jab jab and one more jab (this year) then keep jabbing

Are patients dying that could be saved?

P.S: There is no swear words so Viclocal most likely wont understand or relate and roadkill may find a comma in the wrong spot and discredit the entire study.

https://www.cureus.com/articles/76496-therapies-to-prevent-progression-o...

shortenism's picture
shortenism's picture
shortenism Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 8:52pm

Furthermore Burleigh why does YouTube list the mention of it as a reason for a ‘strike’.. Yep she’s a twisted world.

burleigh's picture
burleigh's picture
burleigh Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 8:54pm
shortenism wrote:

Furthermore Burleigh why does YouTube list the mention of it as a reason for a ‘strike’.. Yep she’s a twisted world.

Yep, and why does the #naturalimmunity on instagram go to a Covid website?

burleigh's picture
burleigh's picture
burleigh Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 9:00pm

Are you ever going to believe you have been fooled?

No Significant Difference in Viral Load Between Vaccinated and Unvaccinated, Asymptomatic and Symptomatic Groups When Infected with SARS-CoV-2 Delta Variant

Here is the study link:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.09.28.21264262v2

mattlock's picture
mattlock's picture
mattlock Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 9:08pm

Surprise surprise burliegh. Instagram shucksters taking gifts from suckers and not declaring.
I've got no evidence, it's just a hunch.

burleigh's picture
burleigh's picture
burleigh Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 9:17pm
mattlock wrote:

Surprise surprise burliegh. Instagram shucksters taking gifts from suckers and not declaring.
I've got no evidence, it's just a hunch.

nah, you completely missed the mark, but nice try.

bluediamond's picture
bluediamond's picture
bluediamond Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 9:19pm

What a fucking joke. We are seriously letting this happen as a country?
50 police officers lose their jobs. For what. 50!
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-12-01/covid-19-vaccination-mandate-enfo...

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 9:20pm
shortenism wrote:

Far out you guys are wound up, ready to strike! Hahahaha... I keep telling u but u aren’t listening. He was removed from his uni? And? He was in a film suggesting Covid is a global conspiracy? And? Fact checkers said it’s not true? And? He was removed from platforms? And?

All of these things should tell you he is someone worth listening to. Especially as YouTube and FB narrow your reality into their narrative.

Oh FFS shortenism. All of these things should tell you he is someone who IS NOT worth listening to.
"Especially as YouTube and FB narrow your reality into their narrative." We don't get our covid information from those sources you idiot. Sensible people go to multiple credible scientists, who haven't been kicked out of their universities, doing proper research.
You on the other hand do your resurch on YouTube.
It's pretty bloody clear to everyone that you will grab hold of anything that supports your conspiracy theories, no matter how discredited the source is.
You're beyond help. Way too far down the rabbit hole.

burleigh's picture
burleigh's picture
burleigh Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 9:21pm
bluediamond wrote:

What a fucking joke. We are seriously letting this happen as a country?
50 police officers lose their jobs. For what. 50!
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-12-01/covid-19-vaccination-mandate-enfo...

This is why we protest.

Group 1 industries must be fully vaccinated by December 31
Industries determined to have high transmission risk, vulnerability risk or are necessary or critical to the safety of the community.

number 10: Aboriginal peoples

WTF?

Roadkill's picture
Roadkill's picture
Roadkill Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 9:26pm
bluediamond wrote:

What a fucking joke. We are seriously letting this happen as a country?
50 police officers lose their jobs. For what. 50!
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-12-01/covid-19-vaccination-mandate-enfo...

Reign in the fake outrage. Did you even read what you posted?
50 officers did not lose their jobs. They would not be at work today as they have not had their first shot..they will get visited by senior cops now to discuss why and what their plans are.

What a dick you are…at least try to be honest.

gragagan's picture
gragagan's picture
gragagan Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 9:27pm
Roadkill wrote:
bluediamond wrote:

What a fucking joke. We are seriously letting this happen as a country?
50 police officers lose their jobs. For what. 50!
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-12-01/covid-19-vaccination-mandate-enfo...

Reign in the fake outrage. Did you even read what you posted?
50 officers did not lose their jobs. They would not be at work today as they have not had their first shot..they will get visited by senior cops now to discuss why and what their plans are.

What a dick you are…at least try to be honest.

On leave with full pay

JQ's picture
JQ's picture
JQ Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 9:32pm
burleigh wrote:

Are you ever going to believe you have been fooled?

No Significant Difference in Viral Load Between Vaccinated and Unvaccinated, Asymptomatic and Symptomatic Groups When Infected with SARS-CoV-2 Delta Variant

Here is the study link:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.09.28.21264262v2

At the risk of engaging with fools...

This is not the full story burleigh.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.28.21261295v1

"Conclusion The mRNA vaccines are highly effective at preventing symptomatic and severe COVID-19 associated with B.1.617.2 infection. Vaccination is associated with faster decline in viral RNA load and a robust serological response. Vaccination remains a key strategy for control of COVID-19 pandemic."

bluediamond's picture
bluediamond's picture
bluediamond Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 9:39pm

Oh i'm sure they'll be back. Must have just forgotten.
Thanks for the insult too. Again.