COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster
Australia is approaching 48 million covid tests, is that money well spent ? I don’t know the wholesale price of a test but I remember sypkan linking an article that had each Australian valued at 25 million per person for the government covid response. Again is that money well spent when our hospitals are in such bad shape. ? Good government with the best health advice in the world ?
no
no
and no...
@bluediamond
"i'm part of a growing majority of people asking legitimate questions,"
No blue diamond. You're not. You're part of the rabble.
Your fellow travellers are the idiots in the streets of Melbourne every Saturday yelling absolute shit and causing trouble.
Business owners in Melbourne have been warned to expect trouble this Saturday due to the passing of the non-controversial Pandemic Bill. Given the chatter on social media, violence is expected. Hopefully it won't happen, but nobody could be shocked if it does.
The LNP in Victoria are an absolute fucking disgrace. Their MPs have been supporting these idiots by speaking at their rallies. Last night we saw complete fuckwit MPs like Bev McArthur claiming Dan Andrews could declare a pandemic when there were zero cases. A complete fabrication.
The LNP leader Lobster Guy said they don't support the bill and won't go into lockdowns. What a fucking knob. If you don't support the bill, the CHO gets to declare pandemics and introduce laws to control it.
These people are absolute scum. They've danced with the idiot mob, despite their violence. Anything that happens on Saturday has been thoroughly encouraged by the cynical and dangerous dogs in the LNP.
just for a minute, imagine there's a big nasty pandemic just around the corner...
the big one
I mean a real big nasty existential crisis style pandemic like they've been long predicting...
not this claytons pandemic various forces have tried to will to be the big one
the resources and reaction thrown to this one are going to look rather silly and ridiculous ...so bloody ridiculous...
not to mention the emptying of the cookie jar of resources arsenal for another disaster, and the squandering of public compliance, good will and cohesion
I really really hope the big one isn't just around the corner, but it wouldn't surprise me if it is... and I really really fear for the global reaction to it... both in terms of means and public will / cooperation to face it...
"not this claytons pandemic"
5.21 million deaths and 262 million cases and counting. And that's a bare minimum.
Please sypkan, do tell us all when this pandemic ceases to be a "Claytons Pandemic" and becomes a real one.
bluediamond wrote:Johknee wrote:bluediamond wrote:.... even after repeated attempts to keep a conversation civil and polite....
bluediamond wrote:If you or VL spoke like that to my face i definitely wouldn't be the 'victim'.
Another civil and polite response. I'll keep score.
Wow! You'd really do that for me?
Thanks! Fun life you must have....shit for brains! (put that one in your tally)
Point proven.
bluediamond wrote:Johknee wrote:bluediamond wrote:Johknee wrote:bluediamond wrote:.... even after repeated attempts to keep a conversation civil and polite....
bluediamond wrote:If you or VL spoke like that to my face i definitely wouldn't be the 'victim'.
Another civil and polite response. I'll keep score.
Wow! You'd really do that for me?
Thanks! Fun life you must have....shit for brains! (put that one in your tally)Thank you. Three. Why so angry? Keep it civil.
I'm assuming you actually do indeed have faeces taking up the space inside of your skull, if you haven't followed the above comments and can't understand why, quite simply, i'll not back down from bullies....which is what they, and you are. Online or in person. Whatever. Otherwise, civility and politeness is all you'll ever get from me.
I'd assume most people couldn't be arsed giving it back but hey, i've got the day off due to no jab....i'm part of a growing majority of people asking legitimate questions, and you sir/madam are the people doing all you can to delegitimise the asking of those questions.
Point reaffirmed..
there aren't people dropping in the street like there will be if a really serious disease like ebola sweeps the world
and, the people dying are largely old and with comorbidities, in more rational parts of the world we call that... ''life'
and your hypobolic numbers fail to make the discretion of...
'died with covid'
'died of covid'
and, 'cases' ... pfffffff.... such a meaningless number... for soooo many reasons!!
but carry on champ, hyping it up and irrationality is what you do...
Of course you can't trust the numbers, they don't suit sypkans narrative, therefore they (and anything else contradictory) must be discarded.
Burleigh, a lot of vaccines require boosters.
BD, less than 10% of the adult population is not a majority.
BTW, I share your opposition to vaccine mandates and passports, but I’m all for getting vaccinated. As my old man (a retired 86 year-old doctor) said: you should get the covid vaccine, but you shouldn’t have to get it.
JQ wrote:Of course you can't trust the numbers, they don't suit sypkans narrative, therefore they (and anything else contradictory) must be discarded.
And all those so-called covid patients and so called hospital workers are obviously crisis actors.
sypkan wrote:there aren't people dropping in the street like there will be if a really serious disease like ebola sweeps the world
and, the people dying are largely old and with comorbidities, in more rational parts of the world we call that... ''life'
and your hypobolic numbers fail to make the discretion of...
'died with covid'
'died of covid'
and, 'cases' ... pfffffff.... such a meaningless number... for soooo many reasons!!
but carry on champ, hyping it up and irrationality is what you do...
Hey clown, remember that guy shot in NZ…he died from gunshot wounds with covid.
What did you post? You posted…NZer dies from covid!
but carry on champ, hyping it up and irrationality is what you do...such a disingenuous individual you are.
'Of course you can't trust the numbers, they don't suit sypkans narrative, therefore they (and anything else contradictory) must be discarded.'
dude, who said anything about can't 'trust' the numbers?
it's about having a realistic idea of what they actually represent
which, with case numbers, isn't much
overthefalls wrote:Burleigh, a lot of vaccines require boosters.
BD, less than 10% of the adult population is not a majority.
BTW, I share your opposition to vaccine mandates and passports, but I’m all for getting vaccinated. As my old man (a retired 86 year-old doctor) said: you should get the covid vaccine, but you shouldn’t have to get it.
With respect OTF. Not getting a vaccine puts others in danger, and puts additional pressure on the hospital system. There has to be consequences for making stupid decisions that impact others, and those consequences should minimise the danger to others. Hence my support for passports. Why should normal people pay a price for the dickheads?
Vic Local wrote:JQ wrote:Of course you can't trust the numbers, they don't suit sypkans narrative, therefore they (and anything else contradictory) must be discarded.
And all those so-called covid patients and so called hospital workers are obviously crisis actors.
you're a pathetic little man who knows cheap shots and nothing else
cheap shots that mean nothing, because they are so off the mark and wrong they're worthless
much like a lot of what you write
overthefalls wrote:BTW, I share your opposition to vaccine mandates and passports, but I’m all for getting vaccinated. As my old man (a retired 86 year-old doctor) said: you should get the covid vaccine, but you shouldn’t have to get it.
Spot on OTF.
All my direct family are vaccinated. We all had reactions to the vax from mild to hospitalisation. But the usual COVID Clowns on here refuse to accept or acknowledge that this actually happens because they "don't know anyone who had a reaction". And because I have voiced my opposition to the thought of being forced (I was vaxed before the mandates) these same clowns then automatically assume my bias and categorise me in the anti-vax club.
It is the disease of the dumb.
Roadkill wrote:sypkan wrote:there aren't people dropping in the street like there will be if a really serious disease like ebola sweeps the world
and, the people dying are largely old and with comorbidities, in more rational parts of the world we call that... ''life'
and your hypobolic numbers fail to make the discretion of...
'died with covid'
'died of covid'
and, 'cases' ... pfffffff.... such a meaningless number... for soooo many reasons!!
but carry on champ, hyping it up and irrationality is what you do...
Hey clown, remember that guy shot in NZ…he died from gunshot wounds with covid.
What did you post? You posted…NZer dies from covid!
but carry on champ, hyping it up and irrationality is what you do...such a disingenuous individual you are.
uuuummmm ok...
once again, you have me mixed up with some conspiracy nutter living rent free in your brain
you're getting weird now
More to yesterdays post from burleigh..
Interesting the wife said “whether his death was vaccine-related or not, he should have been made more aware of potential side effects.” when talking to a real /journalist / media group….as opposed to the rant on instagram that burleigh took as fact.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-delta-outbreak-coroner-investigat...
overthefalls wrote:Burleigh, a lot of vaccines require boosters.
BD, less than 10% of the adult population is not a majority.
BTW, I share your opposition to vaccine mandates and passports, but I’m all for getting vaccinated. As my old man (a retired 86 year-old doctor) said: you should get the covid vaccine, but you shouldn’t have to get it.
True although not entirely sure those numbers are correct, who could be.
But what i will say, if that is true, is that i'd assume the other 90% are the ones who went out and panic bought toilet paper at the start of a pandemic of a virus which affected the respiratory system.
So to put all my faith in that 90% and their critical thinking is gonna take some convincing.
But yeah, i'm with you on the vaccine thing. Do or don't, your choice.
FWIW, i'm not anti vax. Just anti this trial vax being forced onto populations.
Supermarket shelves don't lie!!
"It is the disease of the dumb."
the dumb and counter productive...
seriously, some of these guys are not that dumb... but their behaviour...
deranged has other connotations... but it's the only suitable word...
some have never made it back!
its a crisis on top of a crisis, and some of you really need to take a breath and chill out a bit, for your own good
"once again, you have me mixed up with some conspiracy nutter living rent free in your brain"
If this is true, it doesn't mean you're not a conspiracy nutter sypkan.
Your latest brain fart about "really serious pandemics" in the future is just ridiculous.
You're basically arguing that we don't need to worry about covid (5.21 million deaths bare min) because something worse might happen in the future.
Do you take the same attitude with school shootings in the USA?
no, Im saying we need to take stock of what just happened
and how some places did fuck all and seemingly fared better or not much worse than us
australia took one of the most extreme paths on the planet, now is time for reflection on that path, but zealots like you are so beholden to a compromised and twisted narrative you cannot even hold a conversation
you are the nutter!
not thinking straight, not healthy...
i put you on the same level as the 5G fruitcakes
Im in neither camp, despite your most desperate of desperate efforts to put me there
just try open your mind a little, seriously, you're not a well functioning unit
Can someone explain to me how me being vaccinated protects those around me ? Omicron has shown just how ridiculous that statement from government and media is . As far as case numbers go , it’s not a realistic reflection of hospitalised patients , but the media love the hype .
Again
@bluediamond
"i'm part of a growing majority of people asking legitimate questions,"
I'm kinda intrigued as to how you figure this.
Supafreak wrote:Can someone explain to me how me being vaccinated protects those around me ? Omicron has shown just how ridiculous that statement from government and media is . As far as case numbers go , it’s not a realistic reflection of hospitalised patients , but the media love the hype .
An unvaccinated person is 20 x more likely to pass on covid to others. Your viral loading is reduced due to vaccines thus you don’t pass it on as much.
Supafreak wrote:Can someone explain to me how me being vaccinated protects those around me ? Omicron has shown just how ridiculous that statement from government and media is . As far as case numbers go , it’s not a realistic reflection of hospitalised patients , but the media love the hype .
An unvaccinated person is 20 x more likely to pass on covid to others. Your viral loading is reduced due to vaccines thus you don’t pass it on as much.
"Can someone explain to me how me being vaccinated protects those around me ?"
This really isn't complicated super freak.
Vaccinated people are much less likely to A. Catch covid and B. Spread covid.
Sure it isn't perfect but we do know the vaccine helps control the spread of the virus.
One thing the anti-vaxxers are really good at is letting the perfect be the enemy of the good.
You're also more likely to catch covid and as you move around the community, before symptoms show, you can be passing covid onto others around you.
Supafreak wrote:Can someone explain to me how me being vaccinated protects those around me ? Omicron has shown just how ridiculous that statement from government and media is . As far as case numbers go , it’s not a realistic reflection of hospitalised patients , but the media love the hype .
I'll have a go supafreak, ...just to mix it up with my 'conspiracy theories'...
1. if sick, you are less transmissable than an unvax person, this has been proven somewhat, but that margin does seem to be waning
2. you are less likely to get sick, good for you, good for everybody
3. if you do get sick, you likely will be less sick, so less coughing and sneezing shit everywhere infecting others
4. you're less likely to be hospitalised, which has all sorts of benefits for all
Roadkill wrote:Supafreak wrote:Can someone explain to me how me being vaccinated protects those around me ? Omicron has shown just how ridiculous that statement from government and media is . As far as case numbers go , it’s not a realistic reflection of hospitalised patients , but the media love the hype .
An unvaccinated person is 20 x more likely to pass on covid to others. Your viral loading is reduced due to vaccines thus you don’t pass it on as much.
That’s entirely incorrect.
Try again. Use facts this time.
https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2021/s0730-mmwr-covid-19.html
Hey BD, Thanks for the respectful reply. I reckon those who panicked and stocked up on toilet paper are a minority. Also, I have confidence in my critical thinking skills; they’re not perfect, but they usually serve me well enough. As for the vaccine being a trial or an experiment, that’s a gross exaggeration. However, I have to admit my own bias; I grew up in a family of medical professionals, so I can’t help but listen to them, especially my father who is now retired and has no links with, or fear of, medical authorities. He just says what he thinks, based on over fifty years of medical practice. By extension, I understand why some people don’t trust the medical establishment, especially if they’ve had negative experiences.
Blowin wrote:Roadkill wrote:Supafreak wrote:Can someone explain to me how me being vaccinated protects those around me ? Omicron has shown just how ridiculous that statement from government and media is . As far as case numbers go , it’s not a realistic reflection of hospitalised patients , but the media love the hype .
An unvaccinated person is 20 x more likely to pass on covid to others. Your viral loading is reduced due to vaccines thus you don’t pass it on as much.
That’s entirely incorrect.
Try again. Use facts this time.
https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2021/s0730-mmwr-covid-19.html
So now you're happy to quote CDC data…the same CDC that you have been bagging as full of lies since…forever?
AndyM wrote:Again
@bluediamond
"i'm part of a growing majority of people asking legitimate questions,"I'm kinda intrigued as to how you figure this.
You're right Andy.M. It's purely an assumption based on the growing numbers of protesters every weekend, the growing number of protests, the more coverage these protests are getting in the media, even if they don't want to cover them, (hard to hide 100,000 plus people), but also people i talk to, seeing more and more people voicing their concerns on social media who wouldn't have before. That statement was misleading. To clarify, it's my assumption.
Roadkill wrote:Blowin wrote:Roadkill wrote:Supafreak wrote:Can someone explain to me how me being vaccinated protects those around me ? Omicron has shown just how ridiculous that statement from government and media is . As far as case numbers go , it’s not a realistic reflection of hospitalised patients , but the media love the hype .
An unvaccinated person is 20 x more likely to pass on covid to others. Your viral loading is reduced due to vaccines thus you don’t pass it on as much.
That’s entirely incorrect.
Try again. Use facts this time.
https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2021/s0730-mmwr-covid-19.html
So now you're happy to quote CDC data…the same CDC that you have been bagging as full of lies since…forever?
That article is 5 months old…plenty of more updated data since then.
@bluediamond
"i'm part of a growing majority of people asking legitimate questions,"
What planet do you live on?
You’d better read this :
https://www.pandata.org/understanding-relative-risk-reduction-and-absolu...
Before you read this:
overthefalls wrote:Hey BD, Thanks for the respectful reply. I reckon those who panicked and stocked up on toilet paper are a minority. Also, I have confidence in my critical thinking skills; they’re not perfect, but they usually serve me well enough. As for the vaccine being a trial or an experiment, that’s a gross exaggeration. However, I have to admit my own bias; I grew up in a family of medical professionals, so I can’t help but listen to them, especially my father who is now retired and has no links with, or fear of, medical authorities. He just says what he thinks, based on over fifty years of medical practice. By extension, I understand why some people don’t trust the medical establishment, especially if they’ve had negative experiences.
Like wise Overthefalls, and not implying you weren't a critical thinker.
I did notice you mentioned about asking your dad a question about a link i posted once which was good to see his feedback.
I do have alot of trust in doctors....medical professionals.
I don't trust governments suppressing information that doctors could be sharing that they're not allowed to due to towing the line. As soon as information isn't free and available it's hard to not be suspicious, especially in the current climate. I think the doctors and all health professionals are doing an amazing job in this current situation.
Roadkill wrote:Roadkill wrote:Blowin wrote:Roadkill wrote:Supafreak wrote:Can someone explain to me how me being vaccinated protects those around me ? Omicron has shown just how ridiculous that statement from government and media is . As far as case numbers go , it’s not a realistic reflection of hospitalised patients , but the media love the hype .
An unvaccinated person is 20 x more likely to pass on covid to others. Your viral loading is reduced due to vaccines thus you don’t pass it on as much.
That’s entirely incorrect.
Try again. Use facts this time.
https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2021/s0730-mmwr-covid-19.html
So now you're happy to quote CDC data…the same CDC that you have been bagging as full of lies since…forever?
That article is 5 months old…plenty of more updated data since then.
Show me the differing data.
Blowin wrote:You’d better read this :
https://www.pandata.org/understanding-relative-risk-reduction-and-absolu...
Before you read this:
No thanks. Nope..not interested.
Blowin wrote:Roadkill wrote:Roadkill wrote:Blowin wrote:Roadkill wrote:Supafreak wrote:Can someone explain to me how me being vaccinated protects those around me ? Omicron has shown just how ridiculous that statement from government and media is . As far as case numbers go , it’s not a realistic reflection of hospitalised patients , but the media love the hype .
An unvaccinated person is 20 x more likely to pass on covid to others. Your viral loading is reduced due to vaccines thus you don’t pass it on as much.
That’s entirely incorrect.
Try again. Use facts this time.
https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2021/s0730-mmwr-covid-19.html
So now you're happy to quote CDC data…the same CDC that you have been bagging as full of lies since…forever?
That article is 5 months old…plenty of more updated data since then.
Show me the differing data.
Nope, not interested. Enjoy your day.
Roadkill wrote:Blowin wrote:Roadkill wrote:Supafreak wrote:Can someone explain to me how me being vaccinated protects those around me ? Omicron has shown just how ridiculous that statement from government and media is . As far as case numbers go , it’s not a realistic reflection of hospitalised patients , but the media love the hype .
An unvaccinated person is 20 x more likely to pass on covid to others. Your viral loading is reduced due to vaccines thus you don’t pass it on as much.
That’s entirely incorrect.
Try again. Use facts this time.
https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2021/s0730-mmwr-covid-19.html
So now you're happy to quote CDC data…the same CDC that you have been bagging as full of lies since…forever?
Roadkill, can you provide the link to back your statement that unvaccinated are 20 x more likely to spread covid,. I genuinely want to read where you got that information from.
I'd say it's an interesting read thanks Blowin..
"It is also important to take into account the trial design itself. In this case Pfizer designed the trial, and they are highly experienced in setting up trials for success. The trial compared the case numbers in the vaccinated vs control (placebo) groups where a case of COVID-19 was defined as an individual who experienced symptoms and had a positive test for SARS-CoV-2 infection. This is arguably a weak endpoint, as incidence of severe disease and death, the very outcomes one would hope the vaccine prevents, were not considered."
"no, Im saying we need to take stock of what just happened"
OK sypkan. Let's do that.
Australia has been one of the least impacted countries. This is both in terms of health and economic impacts. This is due to a variety of reasons. I will list a handful of major ones.
1. Luckily we are an island
2. The premiers treated covid as a health problem primarily and stared down the idiot PM who wanted to go to the footy and protect the economy first.
3. We have an advanced health system.
4. We have a very high vaccination rate due to sensible policies and a culture of looking after ya mates.
When you compare Australia with other western nations, we have done very well.
Australia did have longer lockdowns than most other nations because of two main reasons.
1. The vaccine rollout was botched. Scumo fucked it up big time and it started 6 months later than Europe and North America.
2. The general public saw what happened in Europe, India, USA etc and accepted lockdowns as the least worst option.
Australia, with 90% + vaccination rates, low case numbers, a good hospital system, and summer on the way is in a vastly superior position compared to all other western nations. (with the exception of NZ which is a tie).
sypkan, you've sooked about our governments' response for 2 years now. Anyone with any brains (not you supafreak, burleigh, blowin et al) who has followed your rants knows Australia would be in terrible state if you got your way.
You've cried so hard, I don't understand why you don't emigrate to a country that has implemented covid policies more to your liking. Try England or the USA.
You'd have something to really cry about if you were in those countries this coming winter.
Interesting to read Blowin's link.
Have a look in the 'about us' section:
"A group of multi-disciplinary professionals, who perceived the global reaction to Covid, and lockdown in particular, as overwrought and damaging to the point of causing a great tear in the fabric of society, established PANDA (Pandemics Data & Analytics) in April 2020. As a politically and economically independent organisation, PANDA seeks to develop science-based explanations and test them against international data. Policy recommendations for governments and other institutions can be developed from these. PANDA stands for open science and rational debate, for replacing flawed science with good science and for retrieving liberty and prosperity from the clutches of a dystopian “new normal”."
So there's their agenda, laid out pretty plainly.
Here's a rational, clearly laid out explanation of how the '20x less likely' figure is arrived at.
https://theconversation.com/your-unvaccinated-friend-is-roughly-20-times...
It's fairly logical and easy to follow. The information from the CDC at the address below in no way contradicts this at all.
https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2021/s0730-mmwr-covid-19.html
I wonder if you had lost your business and home if you would feel the same way VL plenty of people have lost everything . From the beginning the best health experts in the world according to you and scomo, said a vaccine was the only way to end this pandemic so throw a ton of money at vaccine research and meantime if you get sick go home and isolate. Best medical advice in the world? Really ? Don’t even try early treatment ? Wait to see how sick you get get ? Best medical advice ? And you call everyone else idiots.
Supafreak wrote:Roadkill wrote:Blowin wrote:Roadkill wrote:Supafreak wrote:Can someone explain to me how me being vaccinated protects those around me ? Omicron has shown just how ridiculous that statement from government and media is . As far as case numbers go , it’s not a realistic reflection of hospitalised patients , but the media love the hype .
An unvaccinated person is 20 x more likely to pass on covid to others. Your viral loading is reduced due to vaccines thus you don’t pass it on as much.
That’s entirely incorrect.
Try again. Use facts this time.
https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2021/s0730-mmwr-covid-19.html
So now you're happy to quote CDC data…the same CDC that you have been bagging as full of lies since…forever?
Roadkill, can you provide the link to back your statement that unvaccinated are 20 x more likely to spread covid,. I genuinely want to read where you got that information from.
I can’t recall the exact place I got that figure..but it is easy to remember.
However, try these.
https://www.sbs.com.au/news/your-unvaccinated-friend-is-roughly-20-times...
https://theconversation.com/no-vaccinated-people-are-not-just-as-infecti...
JQ wrote:Interesting to read Blowin's link.
Have a look in the 'about us' section:
"A group of multi-disciplinary professionals, who perceived the global reaction to Covid, and lockdown in particular, as overwrought and damaging to the point of causing a great tear in the fabric of society, established PANDA (Pandemics Data & Analytics) in April 2020. As a politically and economically independent organisation, PANDA seeks to develop science-based explanations and test them against international data. Policy recommendations for governments and other institutions can be developed from these. PANDA stands for open science and rational debate, for replacing flawed science with good science and for retrieving liberty and prosperity from the clutches of a dystopian “new normal”."
So there's their agenda, laid out pretty plainly.
And that is why anything blowin posts is garbage..with a bias.
I've created a spreadsheet forecast which I'll update as we go..
There's also a website with live running data.. https://sites.google.com/view/stayhomeaustralia