COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster

Craig's picture
Craig started the topic in Wednesday, 18 Mar 2020 at 7:44pm

I've created a spreadsheet forecast which I'll update as we go..

There's also a website with live running data.. https://sites.google.com/view/stayhomeaustralia

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 2 Dec 2021 at 11:44am

Great post GSCO.

saltyone's picture
saltyone's picture
saltyone Thursday, 2 Dec 2021 at 11:49am

Superfreak I didn’t watch the clip but read his words . Yes all very bizarre

shortenism's picture
shortenism's picture
shortenism Thursday, 2 Dec 2021 at 12:16pm

Good on you freeride! So you should. And maybe we should apply jungle rules to this whole pandemic while we're at it ei. Breath air, live free, tune into your environment, release the fear of the enemy, which cannot be seen or heard other than through the tv.

tubeshooter's picture
tubeshooter's picture
tubeshooter Thursday, 2 Dec 2021 at 12:43pm

Looks like some naughty people won't even be getting a lump of coal from Santa this year ..
https://babylonbee.com/news/santa-to-replace-naughty-or-nice-list-with-v...

sypkan's picture
sypkan's picture
sypkan Thursday, 2 Dec 2021 at 1:49pm

excellent post gsco

as you point out, there is incredible pressure within these systems not to break ranks... often just good ol' peer pressure funny enough... amongst a heap of other pressures...

it is just plain ridiculous and insultung the picture some try to paint on here, of an education, science, and research establishment generally above these forces

(bloody laughable if you understand the theory that underpins the things they are often advocating...)

there is always bias, however the neoliberalisation of western institutions in particular has had proound effects. coupled with the overseas student meat grinder, it's a disaster...

funnily enough the 'public' many belittle, have seen and understood this for a long time, even if they cannot arriculate it

people like to blame everything on trump, and now the new proxies... 'conspiracy theorists' and anti-vaxxers... but really, the rise of all of these phenomena are a sympton of a system long corrupted... not the cause! ...blaming all modern woes on these symptons - as those accepting of the hegemony tend to do - just deflects, defers, and generally makes matters worse... not generally actually... most bloody definitely!

more crew need to speak up

not more conversations shut down

as gsco points out, being challenged and arguing the case is part of the process, or was...

Supafreak's picture
Supafreak's picture
Supafreak Thursday, 2 Dec 2021 at 1:43pm

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Thursday, 2 Dec 2021 at 1:53pm

What do people expect to happen when our community has been set up to fail by those in charge? You honestly didn’t foresee healthy citizens, who may have played by every single rule and moral obligation society has ever thrown at them, to remain calm at all times when ludicrous segregation policies are affected which exclude them from entire parts of society?

I don’t condone retail staff or employees feeling the brunt of the anger resulting from this irrational and politically motivated apartheid, but it was always going to happen. Our community has been wedged into this situation.

With 90% plus vaccination rates there is zero legitimate reason why society can’t function without restrictions. The apartheid has no scientific basis and many in the scientific community state that there is no justification for the medical apartheid. It is politics plain and simple. Any politicians toying with the freedom of Australian citizens in order to pander to a voter demographic need to be tied to an ants nest and covered in honey.

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Thursday, 2 Dec 2021 at 2:02pm

Prediction : Society allowed to reopen to the unvaccinated mid December purely to allow money to flow for Christmas. I imagine that restrictions will be reimposed after Chrissy holidays ( maybe mid February) in order to crank up the booster shot obligations. They might even put it off till after Easter so that spending happens and use the impending cooler weather as PANIC for booster requirements for all.

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Thursday, 2 Dec 2021 at 2:05pm

Justification for booster shots. You are being softened up. A new normal is being massaged into being.

SMH sub heading:
With the arrival of the Omicron variant, booster shots are looking more urgent. So, what side effects can you expect?

fitzroy-21's picture
fitzroy-21's picture
fitzroy-21 Thursday, 2 Dec 2021 at 2:33pm

I believe there will be more pushback from normal everyday people about the boosters. Plenty of people have begrudgingly had the vax due to a variety of reasons, they feel they have complied and that should be that, but a booster will be the last straw. I'm hearing it from people I never expected it of.

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Thursday, 2 Dec 2021 at 2:41pm
fitzroy-21 wrote:

I believe there will be more pushback from normal everyday people about the boosters. Plenty of people have begrudgingly had the vax due to a variety of reasons, they feel they have complied and that should be that, but a booster will be the last straw. I'm hearing it from people I never expected it of.

For sure. Vaccination rates were sitting at below 30% before they started talk of coercion. No one gave a fuck about them. Vaccination rates didn’t take off until the reality of the apartheid was explained. Those figures are more accurate than any polling when it comes to establishing public enthusiasm for covid vaccines.

The majority of people just weren’t interested until the government forced them into getting it. Even then it was a case of “ You’re going to have to get it sooner or later” not a vibe of “ Well I was going to get it anyway “.

I’ve yet to meet a single person who is keen for a booster. It’s a bit of a line in the sand after everyone thought they could just appease the authoritarianism away.

Bullies never respect appeasement and our government is a bully.

gragagan's picture
gragagan's picture
gragagan Thursday, 2 Dec 2021 at 2:55pm

Founder of anti-vax christian TV show dies after contracting covid

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-12-02/daystar-marcus-lamb-covid-death/1...

shortenism's picture
shortenism's picture
shortenism Thursday, 2 Dec 2021 at 2:57pm

Newsflash : SA records 18 new cases as outbreak grows from a reunion event.

Note, only vaccinated ppl attended the event...

Roadkill's picture
Roadkill's picture
Roadkill Thursday, 2 Dec 2021 at 2:59pm
fitzroy-21 wrote:

I believe there will be more pushback from normal everyday people about the boosters. Plenty of people have begrudgingly had the vax due to a variety of reasons, they feel they have complied and that should be that, but a booster will be the last straw. I'm hearing it from people I never expected it of.

The majority of people will listen to the science and get booster shots. I see plenty at my work that have had the booster. No big deal for 90% of the population, that will do the right thing.

fitzroy-21's picture
fitzroy-21's picture
fitzroy-21 Thursday, 2 Dec 2021 at 3:01pm
Roadkill wrote:

No big deal for 90% of the population, that will do the right thing.

The right thing by who and what exactly?

suchas's picture
suchas's picture
suchas Thursday, 2 Dec 2021 at 3:03pm
gragagan wrote:

Founder of anti-vax christian TV show dies after contracting covid

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-12-02/daystar-marcus-lamb-covid-death/1...

How many anti-vaxxers are now in heaven? Are they segregated??

gragagan's picture
gragagan's picture
gragagan Thursday, 2 Dec 2021 at 3:08pm
suchas wrote:
gragagan wrote:

Founder of anti-vax christian TV show dies after contracting covid

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-12-02/daystar-marcus-lamb-covid-death/1...

How many anti-vaxxers are now in heaven? Are they segregated??

Good question. Who's the doorman to heaven, St Peter? Maybe St Peter is an anti-vaxxer, whilst heaven is for vaxxed only.
Sounds like a good idea for a sit-com

Roadkill's picture
Roadkill's picture
Roadkill Thursday, 2 Dec 2021 at 3:12pm
fitzroy-21 wrote:
Roadkill wrote:

No big deal for 90% of the population, that will do the right thing.

The right thing by who and what exactly?

For everyone...even the unvaxxed benefit from the 90% of people that do the right thing.

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local Thursday, 2 Dec 2021 at 3:13pm
fitzroy-21 wrote:
Roadkill wrote:

No big deal for 90% of the population, that will do the right thing.

The right thing by who and what exactly?

By themselves and others. You'd have to be an idiot not to see this.

sypkan's picture
sypkan's picture
sypkan Thursday, 2 Dec 2021 at 3:15pm
fitzroy-21 wrote:

I believe there will be more pushback from normal everyday people about the boosters. Plenty of people have begrudgingly had the vax due to a variety of reasons, they feel they have complied and that should be that, but a booster will be the last straw. I'm hearing it from people I never expected it of.

yep, im vaxxed... for whatever reasons...

last thing i expect to do is line up for dubious boosters every 6 months

get faaarrrrked

fitzroy-21's picture
fitzroy-21's picture
fitzroy-21 Thursday, 2 Dec 2021 at 3:15pm

VL. Wasn't a question directed at you Moron.

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local Thursday, 2 Dec 2021 at 3:15pm
shortenism wrote:

Newsflash : SA records 18 new cases as outbreak grows from a reunion event.

Note, only vaccinated ppl attended the event...

IT'S NOT PERFECT DICKHEAD. And if they were unvaccinated the medical consequences would be much worse.
WTF is it with the anti-vaxxers wanting perfect protection from the virus and then encouraging everyone to have no protection from the virus.
STFU idiots.

fitzroy-21's picture
fitzroy-21's picture
fitzroy-21 Thursday, 2 Dec 2021 at 3:20pm

[quote=sypkan (directed at VL)

"beyond angry man propaganda and belittling

mate, give up on the character assasination routine, it's tedious, especially coming from one so clearly lacking character

you are ...officially, the biggest, most deranged delusional, egocentric moron I have ever encountered..".

A very fair and true assessment.

A conclusion many of us come to a long time ago.

Supafreak's picture
Supafreak's picture
Supafreak Thursday, 2 Dec 2021 at 3:28pm
sypkan wrote:
fitzroy-21 wrote:

I believe there will be more pushback from normal everyday people about the boosters. Plenty of people have begrudgingly had the vax due to a variety of reasons, they feel they have complied and that should be that, but a booster will be the last straw. I'm hearing it from people I never expected it of.

yep, im vaxxed... for whatever reasons...

last thing i expect to do is line up for dubious boosters every 6 months

get faaarrrrked

UK is already recommending boosters every 3 months for the vulnerable. Wont be long and Australia will follow that your not fully vaccinated unless you have had a booster and therefore………….,, no soup for you !

shortenism's picture
shortenism's picture
shortenism Thursday, 2 Dec 2021 at 3:34pm

Yeah, no shit VL. Not perfect is an understatement.

But it is what was sold to you as your ticket to freedom.... How is that going for you?

Not outraged at those broken promises? Just angry at those who point it out ei?

Potentially 'not perfect' will be the quote of 2021.. I'm sure the Politicians will start saying it, as will big pharma. Hunt has already bolted, he can see the writing on the wall.. Good to see your starting to admit it.

indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming Thursday, 2 Dec 2021 at 3:38pm
Roadkill wrote:
fitzroy-21 wrote:

I believe there will be more pushback from normal everyday people about the boosters. Plenty of people have begrudgingly had the vax due to a variety of reasons, they feel they have complied and that should be that, but a booster will be the last straw. I'm hearing it from people I never expected it of.

The majority of people will listen to the science and get booster shots. I see plenty at my work that have had the booster. No big deal for 90% of the population, that will do the right thing.

I wouldn't be so sure, i think we will see a steady decline in booster take up over time.

I will get my booster but the real motivation will be to get to Indo and not only jump hoops needed, but if i get Covid over there i dont want to waste my time being sick.

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local Thursday, 2 Dec 2021 at 3:40pm

"But it is what was sold to you as your ticket to freedom.... How is that going for you?"

Very well shortenism you stupid man. I'm looking forward to crossing state lines for a big family XMAS get together, business is back on track, and apart from wearing a mask inside certain venues, life is exactly the same as pre-covid times for me. All because 95% of our LGA is double vaxxed.

Will you be going to the Freedumb riot this weekend?

sypkan's picture
sypkan's picture
sypkan Thursday, 2 Dec 2021 at 3:43pm
Supafreak wrote:
sypkan wrote:
fitzroy-21 wrote:

I believe there will be more pushback from normal everyday people about the boosters. Plenty of people have begrudgingly had the vax due to a variety of reasons, they feel they have complied and that should be that, but a booster will be the last straw. I'm hearing it from people I never expected it of.

yep, im vaxxed... for whatever reasons...

last thing i expect to do is line up for dubious boosters every 6 months

get faaarrrrked

UK is already recommending boosters every 3 months for the vulnerable. Wont be long and Australia will follow that your not fully vaccinated unless you have had a booster and therefore………….,, no soup for you !

first 'vaccination' ever that requires 3 month boosters...

either hurry and get better at the science, or stop pushing your bandaid measures that seem largely unjustified

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local Thursday, 2 Dec 2021 at 3:52pm

"that seem largely unjustified"
Just another 8,000 more deaths overnight bringing the total to 5.22 mil. Tell us sypkan, how many deaths do you think are needed before the vaccines becomes "justifiable."
Do ya reckon we should just wait until the tally hits 10 mil before rolling up the sleeves?
you do realise covid isn't going away anytime soon without vaccines.

sypkan's picture
sypkan's picture
sypkan Thursday, 2 Dec 2021 at 4:09pm

"Just another 8,000 more deaths overnight.."

yeh, and how old an chubby were they?

got some figures to back up your fear mongering champ?

never ever ever ever heard of a 'vaccine' that requires 3 monthly trips to the doc...

that ain't a vaccine...

either:

rename it

actually make a vaccine

start telling me the truth about why it is proving so difficult to treat

or, expect all sorts of resistance, I'm not signing up for a 3 monthly medical regime that is unproven

sorry

indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming Thursday, 2 Dec 2021 at 4:05pm
Vic Local wrote:

you do realise covid isn't going away anytime soon without vaccines.

Or even with them.

shortenism's picture
shortenism's picture
shortenism Thursday, 2 Dec 2021 at 4:09pm

C'mon, its a pretty flaky version of freedom VL.. I hope you get there, I do...

'All because your LGA is 95% double vaxxed' - So you are admitting that it was all about hitting vaccine sales %? Not because it actually does anything, which is becoming more and more evident?

yeah yeah I know there's the narrative about it being less severe blah blah but there's also a strong case to suggest Ormicon only exists in the vaccinated? Although that will fade from headline news as they learn that.. Hunt knows it and he's gonski.

Swings and roudabouts ei.

Roadkill's picture
Roadkill's picture
Roadkill Thursday, 2 Dec 2021 at 4:13pm
sypkan wrote:

"Just another 8,000 more deaths overnight.."

yeh, and how old an chubby were they?

got some figures to back up your fear mongering champ?

never ever ever ever heard of a 'vaccine' that requires 3 monthly trips to the doc...

that ain't a vaccine...

either:

rename it

actually make a vaccine

start telling me the truth about why it is proving so difficult to treat

or, expect all sorts of resistance, I'm not signing up for a 3 monthly medical regime that is unproven

sorry

Is an old persons life worthless? What age does someone become worthless?

Is a chubby persons life worthless? What weight does someone become worthless?

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local Thursday, 2 Dec 2021 at 4:18pm

"Not because it (the vaccine) actually does anything, which is becoming more and more evident?"
Fair dimkum shortenism, this is high stupidity.
The worst thing about you anti-vaxxer morons is your arrogance. You watch a couple of youtube videos and you think you're experts. you actually think you know more than real scientists working in real hospital for decades.
If you muppets were only a danger to yourselves I wouldn't care about your stupidity. the problem with anti-vaxxers is, you're going to take out a bunch of decent people too. Oh and the violence. Multiple reports of anti-vaxxers assaulting people because they were told "no". Fucking pathetic.

sypkan's picture
sypkan's picture
sypkan Thursday, 2 Dec 2021 at 4:24pm

"Is an old persons life worthless? What age does someone become worthless?

Is a chubby persons life worthless? What weight does someone become worthless?"

definitely not worthless, but this is how life works... if you're old or unwell the flu or pneaumonia normally gets you... same as it ever was...

that's life

or nature...

except now we have a new pneaumonia inducing flu...

get out of your sanitised gold coast bubble a bit more and you might actually begin to understand this

sypkan's picture
sypkan's picture
sypkan Thursday, 2 Dec 2021 at 4:22pm

https://m.

indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming Thursday, 2 Dec 2021 at 4:29pm

Anyone come across people that aren't vaccinated and have lots of anti Covid vax cliche ideals, but then claim to be waiting for Novavax?

I know two seperate people that claim all the other vaccines are this or that but Novavax is safer and better for some reason.

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local Thursday, 2 Dec 2021 at 4:30pm

"definitely not worthless, but this is how life works... if you're old or unwell the flu or pneaumonia normally gets you... same as it ever was..."
But we aren'y talking about the 'flu here are we. We are talking about a very dangerous virus for elderly people with a very effective but not perfect vaccine.
Elderly people have been very keen to get vaccinated. They clearly see value in their lives and want to prolong their one and only life. You on the other hand are happy for anti-vaxxers to put elderly people at risk. How very fucking noble of you.

Roadkill's picture
Roadkill's picture
Roadkill Thursday, 2 Dec 2021 at 4:31pm
sypkan wrote:

"Is an old persons life worthless? What age does someone become worthless?

Is a chubby persons life worthless? What weight does someone become worthless?"

definitely not worthless, but this is how life works... if you're old or unwell the flu or pneaumonia normally gets you... same as it ever was...

that's life

or nature...

except now we have a new pneaumonia inducing flu...

get out of your sanitised gold coast bubble a bit more and you might actually begin to understand this

Is 50 old?
Or 60?

shortenism's picture
shortenism's picture
shortenism Thursday, 2 Dec 2021 at 4:36pm

High stupidity... Hahaha, I like it...

Just take notice that this anti-vax rant you are on will come back to bite you. Guaranteed. Sure, perhaps historical vaccines have played a roll but not this one. This one is too tied up in fast tracked political agenda's to be good for anyone. All you are getting is confusion and lies to cover up lies and that is the beginning of the end and exactly why our little mate Greg Hunt is removing himself in the grips of a once in a generation pandemic? C'monnnnn, surely our national health 'leader' and captainm would see it through, not announce he's abandoning ship! Just before Xmas!!! I mean what hope do we have without him!!??? If you are not outraged, you aren't paying attention.

Hopefully this latest round of COVID fear propaganda is just be to flood the airways and divert attention from Ghislaine Maxwell case in the US. But given the expiry of the emergency declarations around the country in the coming weeks, i'd say its just to perpetuate things.

Here's a graph I would like to see Craig or stunet or Thermal or jono or whoever started this thread. What's the correlation between school holidays and lockdowns, also the dates of expiry and extension of emergency declarations and case numbers. That would be worth a look and no doubt will be an interesting history lesson one day..

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local Thursday, 2 Dec 2021 at 4:41pm

Christmas dinner must be a bit of an eye-opener at the sypkan household.
Not sure what his vaccination status is but given his line of argument, looks like he'd be happy to sit next to a frail old relative and say, "if I give you covid Nan, ce la vi"

sypkan's picture
sypkan's picture
sypkan Thursday, 2 Dec 2021 at 4:44pm

"But we aren'y talking about the 'flu here are we. We are talking about a very dangerous virus for elderly people with a very effective but not perfect vaccine."

no we are not talking about the flu here...

we are talking about the virus nouveau that has replaced the flu as the new main knocker offer...

nature (maybe) at work

yes it's a bit worse tan the flu... but not always...

overthefalls's picture
overthefalls's picture
overthefalls Thursday, 2 Dec 2021 at 4:45pm
indo-dreaming wrote:

Anyone come across people that aren't vaccinated and have lots of anti Covid vax cliche ideals, but then claim to be waiting for Novavax?

I know two seperate people that claim all the other vaccines are this or that but Novavax is safer and better for some reason.

Yes, I know a bloke who was all about vitamins, ivermectin and other unproven treatments, but now he’s waiting for the novavax because he reckons it’s far superior to the others.

Roadkill's picture
Roadkill's picture
Roadkill Thursday, 2 Dec 2021 at 4:49pm
sypkan wrote:

"But we aren'y talking about the 'flu here are we. We are talking about a very dangerous virus for elderly people with a very effective but not perfect vaccine."

no we are not talking about the flu here...

we are talking about the virus nouveau that has replaced the flu as the new main knocker offer...

nature (maybe) at work

yes it's a bit worse tan the flu... but not always...

What age is a person old? And then we can just shrug our shoulders and say..oh well..old people, they die.
Is 60 old?

sypkan's picture
sypkan's picture
sypkan Thursday, 2 Dec 2021 at 4:57pm

Tun"Is 50 old?
Or 60?"

that's up to nature, mr. god complex...

I know a 90+ indo grandpa that just survived corona.... 6 months before corona came along he was on oxygen bottles and in and out of hospital... i thought he was toast then...

now he's just survived corona, and going strong

god (nature) works in mysterious ways...

your number game is pointless

much like most of your posts

overthefalls's picture
overthefalls's picture
overthefalls Thursday, 2 Dec 2021 at 4:49pm

I’d love to see a televised debate between experts in the pro-vax camp and the experts in the anti-vax camp.

fitzroy-21's picture
fitzroy-21's picture
fitzroy-21 Thursday, 2 Dec 2021 at 4:50pm
overthefalls wrote:

I’d love to see a televised debate between experts in the pro-vax camp and the experts in the anti-vax camp.

Yeah, it would be called "Disease of the Dumb."

Supafreak's picture
Supafreak's picture
Supafreak Thursday, 2 Dec 2021 at 4:52pm
indo-dreaming wrote:

Anyone come across people that aren't vaccinated and have lots of anti Covid vax cliche ideals, but then claim to be waiting for Novavax?

I know two seperate people that claim all the other vaccines are this or that but Novavax is safer and better for some reason.

Novavax is old style vaccine with new technologies, synthetic protein same as Professor Petrovsky vaccine, they are very similar and are said to be safer than mRNA . But the best medical experts in the world , even if they approved it , it then needs green light from government which ain’t happening .

sypkan's picture
sypkan's picture
sypkan Thursday, 2 Dec 2021 at 4:53pm
overthefalls wrote:

I’d love to see a televised debate between experts in the pro-vax camp and the experts in the anti-vax camp.

wouldn't we all!

throw in some middle road moderators and let em at it... cage fight style...

but for some reason we don't do such debates anymore...

strange that

(this doesn't just apply to corona)

Roadkill's picture
Roadkill's picture
Roadkill Thursday, 2 Dec 2021 at 4:54pm
sypkan wrote:
"Is 50 old?
Or 60?"

that's up to nature mr. god complex...

I know a 90+ indo grandpa that just survived corona.... 6 months before corona came along he was on oxygen bottles and in and out of hospital... i thought he was toast then...

now he's just survived corona, and going strong

god (nature) works in mysterious ways...

your number game is pointless

much like most of your posts[/quote

So when does a chubby become worthless? Is 100kg chubby..fuck em they can die?

Or 90kg..just so we can not give a fuck more easily when they kick off?