Several juicy fetches will send swell across the Tasman this week with a low moving E of Bass Strait on the weekend expected to see large storm surf develop.
Into next week and the outlook is much juicier than Wed’s notes suggested as the low reforms near New Zealand with multiple swell generating fetches in the Eastern Tas swell window.
N'ly winds are broadening off the coast of NSW, as the pressure gradient is tightened between a mobile high and the approaching low.
The high pressure belt is moving at a more typical northerly latitude over interior Australia and with weaker, more mobile high pressure moving over the interior and into the Tasman, we are looking at a period of N’ly biased winds with W’ly oriented fronts being quickly shunted across the Tasman.
High pressure rapidly moves off the NSW Coast early next week, driving a N’ly flow off the South Coast into Bass Strait. Unfortunately, this fetch is now disjointed and rapidly shifts to the NW through Mon.
We are now close to the end game as the low which started off the CQ Coast in the Coral Sea expends it’s last energy off the bottom of the South Island New Zealand, with a fetch still well aimed for East Coast Tasmania.
Current ASCAT (satellite windspeed) pass shows storm force winds embedded in a larger fetch of SE-ESE gales to severe gales aimed back at the Eastern Seaboard including Tasmania.
That size holds though Tues-Wed- or even a notch above in the 4-6ft range- offering up fantastic potential under light winds Tues, with winds tending more W’ly Wed as a weak front crosses the state.
The remains of a low near the South Island are continuing to send south quadrant swells towards Tasmania and, most notably, a trough of low pressure in the Coral Sea is deepening and expected to activate into a fully fledged Coral Sea surface low as an upper trough moves over it from inland QLD tomorrow. This low will provide large E’ly quadrant swells for a huge swathe of the Eastern Seaboard, from the Central QLD Coast to Tasmania over the coming week.
Surf comes from a wide variety of sources this week as a typical strong winter cold front gets shunted aside by a very La Niña looking synoptic pattern, more reminiscent of Feb/Mar than July. This will see a very strong southwards located high pressure system set up a strong ridge along most of the Eastern seaboard, acting as an anvil for a tropical low to push against later in the week