The strong reinforcing cold front is now almost across the Tasman with a large (1031hPa) high moving across from the Bight and already setting up a ridge along the QLD Coast. High pressure moves into the Tasman as we end the week with a dominant role into next week.
A 996 hPa low just off the coast and a 1034 hPa high in the Bight is creating a very tight pressure gradient with subsequent severe gales and an L-XL S swell event. The primary focus of this swell is temperate NSW inside the Hunter curve, with other areas seeing much less swell.
By Sunday we’ll see a deepening angled trough in the Tasman Sea with a low expected to form in the trough NE of Tasmania off the Gippsland Coast.
A much stronger cold outbreak looks poised to spawn a major Tasman Low Sun/Mon with the seasons first serious S swell expected.
Low pressure troughs off the NSW and SEQLD coast combined with high pressure over the interior and frontal activity to the south are driving a W’ly flow across the Eastern Seaboard, perfectly timed for a quality E’ly groundswell. We’ll see a slow easing of this swell event over the coming days with all day offshores expected.
No shortage of east swell this weekend, with the low in the northern Tasman Sea generating some impressive energy that'll build through Saturday towards a peak early Sunday.
A broad trough of low pressure is expected to bud a surface low near New Caledonia over the short term, generating more quality E-E/NE swell as the low drifts through the South Pacific slot and into the Tasman.
The major swell generator will a broad fetch of SE-E/SE winds in the Coral Sea/Northern Tasman which will be enhanced later in the week as a broad tropical low tracks southwards from New Caledonia and into the wide open Eastern swell window. This will keep the sub-tropical Points pumping with a rebuild in quality E’ly groundswell later this week and into the weekend.
The trough block will break down over the weekend, to be replaced by a very strong high pressure system in the Tasman Sea
We still have the trough block pattern in place with the South Pacific low centre contracting away to the NE while a secondary low centre retrogrades back into he Tasman Sea. An anchoring high, is being shunted away with a trough and front expected tomorrow before a new dominant high moves in from the Bight.