Meh! for the short term; Howdy! for the long term
South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Fri 24 Jan)
Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)
- Average S'ly swell for Sat, biggest in NNSW (a little smaller MNC, a lot smaller SE Qld)
- Small leftovers Sun with early light winds
- Small SE Qld surf for the first half of next week
- N/NE winds affectung surf conditions south from Ballina early next week, with just a few flukey south swells
- Good trade swell event lining up for Fri/Sat
- Chance for a decent, sizeable E'ly quadrant swell next weekend and beyond from developing tropical activity
Recap
Easing southerly winds across most areas on Thursday morning became light and variable by the afternoon, with a mix of easing S and E/SE swells offering fun 2-3ft sets south from Byron, and smaller north of the border. There were a few outliers: an intense thunderstorm passage around 9:30-10am across the Far North Coast and southern Gold Coast - with embedded microbursts - delivered winds gusts of 57kts at Cape Byron. And the Sunshine Coast started off with moderate NW winds, becoming variable early-mid morning ahead of fresh to strong SE winds mid-late morning, and finally easing NE winds into the afternoon (eh?). Surf size started out smaller today but freshening northerly winds have built local windswells to 2-3ft across exposed Gold and Tweed coasts, with smaller surf elsewhere. Winds have been anywhere from the NW to the N ahead of a S/SE change that reached Yamba around 3pm (gusting 31kts) and is now pushing up along the Far North Coast towards the border.
This weekend (25 - 26)
Today’s southerly change is related to a developing Tasman Low that is poorly aligned within our swell window, and tracking unfavourably to the east.
A relatively short fetch length and its brief duration within our swell window also reduces forecast confidence from this system. Additionally, lingering southerly winds at most coasts will maintain bumpy conditions for the early session, at those beaches picking up the most size.
Northern NSW’s south swell magnets could pick up 3-5ft sets early on - likely biggest between Coffs and Byron, smaller along the Mid North Coast - but smaller at anywhere not open to the south.
However, we’re not looking at much size at all in SE Qld, perhaps 1-2ft across the semi-exposed points, with wind affected 2-3ft sets at exposed northern ends under fresh SE breezes.
If there is a positive for Saturday's outlook, it’s that - with the exception of SE Qld, specifically the Sunshine Coast - winds should ease rapidly through the day and should become light by the afternoon, which may lead to a lumpy round of open beaches. But the swell won’t have a lot of strength and the trend will be down through the day so keep yoru expectations low.
A rapid drop in size will then follow through into Sunday with generally light winds early on, ahead of freshening NE winds on the Mid North Coast, tending more E’ly in the Far North.
Late afternoon may see the arrival of a small, infrequent south swell (generated by polar low activity well south of the continent earlier in the week) but it’ll only favour south swell magnets south of Coffs for the late session. Don’t expect much more than extremely inconsistent 2-3ft sets here.
Elsewhere, it’ll be small and grovelly for Sunday with a mix of low strength energies, only favouring the swell magnets.
Next week (27 onwards)
Small inconsistent southerly swells will overlap across Northern NSW throughout the first half of the week, generated from a sequence of poorly aligned fronts south of Tasmania today and over the weekend.
The best looking system of them all is due to arrive across Southern NSW late Monday and Northern NSW into Tuesday, but I suspect we’ll be lucky to see rare 2-3ft sets at a handful of the region’s more reliable south swell magnets. Most other breaks will likely see very little size at all.
Freshening N/NE winds throughout this period will write off most open beaches but protected northern corners should be OK.
SE Qld won’t see much surf through this time period, but the onshore breeze will be only light to moderate and more E/NE in direction (variable early). Keep your expectations low.
Tuesday’s strengthening N/NE flow will be feeding into an approaching southerly change that’s due into the Mid North Coast early Wednesday, though it’s likely to peter out before getting much further north. This will probably evolve into a coastal trough that should set up a small short range SE swell for Southern NSW Wednesday and Thursday, of which we may see a small spread up into Northern NSW (though nothing of any major size is currently expected).
Also in the mix around this time will be another southerly groundswell, generated by a deep Southern Ocean low pushing below Tasmania on Tuesday. Again, the fetch looks to be poorly aimed for our region but I think we could see a little more size at south swell magnets in Northern NSW later Thursday and Friday with occasional 2-3ft sets at a handful of reliable south swell magnets.
The super long range outlook has some developing tropical activity in the Northern Coral Sea that may eventually bear some fruit for us - initially by way of an increase in trade swell from a supporting ridge well to the south, before we potentially see some more dynamic surf from a closed low (tropical or hybrid) or two across the broader swell window.
The most likely scenario at this early stage is for a steady upwards trend around Friday or Saturday of next week, ahead of a three or four day spell of sizeable, windy surf across the SE Qld / Far Northern NSW region, sourced from activity not just in the Coral Sea and Northern Tasman, but also across the South Pacific (see below.. though bear in mind this very speculative).
Either way, it’s looking like our eastern swell window is about to get into the swing of things and finally resume its regular summer programming.
More on that in Monday’s notes.
Comments
That last run of swell was great, lots of clean mornings and grunty beach break peaks. Looking forward to the next round. Sounds like it's worth keeping an eye on the cams tomorrow afternoon
What a sick morning. 4 foot at dbah, wind had enough south in it for offshores til around 9. That right hand point bank in the middle was going off!
Long term charts downgraded? This summer is a bit depressing for swell
South swell came in pretty hot here for the dawny- plenty of long 4ft lines- then size and consistency dropped off a cliff around 9am.
Have you set your forecasting pen down FR?
Been on leave, back Mon.
Nice mate, hope you had a good break. Off at a sprint to start the year for me and many. Big year ahead!
Small and weak on the Tweed though I didn't get in until about 10am. Slow 2ft sets with a moderate southerly breeze. A few rare 3ft'ers but not much push.
Had another surf this arvo, almost a carbon copy. Wasn't much fun.. but my eleven year old loved it!
And on the Sunshine Coast, tiny weak onshore dribble.
Same as always for the last, well 6 months or so....
Beautiful conditions yesterday arvo, pity about ocean energy though. Couple for a grovel to get out of furnace heat....
There's been sessions if you had the ability to pick them and go, but yeah shocker.
Agreed don’t think I’ve surfed a wave over 3 foot since winter 24
Anything north of the cape was weak and dribbly by 0900. Meh indeed
Better than expected on the mnc at a, ahh, sorta well-known point break. Last week's swell pushed some sand round the corner finally, so some fun runners to be had.
15-20ft on Sunshine Coast surf forecast for early feb 7.2 m at 11.2 seconds !! Anyone ever seen that before. ?
Can't be seduced by the long term forecasts, but gee, there is hope, light at the end of the miserable Sunny Coast summer. Looks like 10 days+ of solid east swell.
Long term always trying on the charm.
EC currently looking ravishing in triple cyclones!
Haha i was just thinking the same thing man! hopefully closer to the date that peak gets downgraded and we get solid run of good east swell
Bank wrecker!
I'll take a bank wrecker over 1 foot slop like we have had. Ha ha
True dat!
We can only hope we get extended run of east swell. If it's still holding by Wednesday I'll get excited
That was a bizarre little pulse of S groundswell this arvo.
Tried to rockfish an exposed S facing ledge and it was bombing 3-4ft and relentless from 4-6pm.
Can't see any signature on the Byron Buoy that would suggest it- anyone else have a read on it?
Edit- just read notes fully- must have been that polar low swell.
Models seriously struggling with this one.
All over the shop.
a S pulse on the way up