South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon Jan 6th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Minor tradeswells Tues-Wed offer a just rideable wave at open beaches 
• Trough brings a new S-SE swell from later Wed into Thurs, easing Fri
• Tiny surf becoming established over the weekend
• Not much on offer next week, at this stage- tiny NE windswells at best
• Still looking long range for our first swell of 2025, nothing concrete on the radar. Stay tuned, it has to happen eventually!

Recap

Fun waves over the weekend with both days seeing an E’ly tradeswell signal in the 2-3ft range with light winds most of the day. Some flukey S swell was reported yesterday on the MNC, with traces of it showing up on the Far North Coast today. Otherwise, surf has eased today into the 2ft range with light winds tending to E’ly- NE’ly seabreezes. 

Swell magnets getting a good workout lately

This week (Jan 6-10)

The current synoptic situation has a Groundhog Day feel to it, with another very weak high pressure cell in the Tasman (1019hPa), directing a mod N’ly flow along the temperate NSW coastline, with a weakening Tradewind flow in the Coral Sea contracting northwards. A weak monsoon trough in the South Pacific is lacking both a strong monsoonal surge from the NW and any meaningful high pressure support to the south. A front and trough bring a S’ly change to the Central/MNC, with the trough now looking to stall and wash out on the lower end of the Mid North Coast. Weak S’lies should extend up towards the border by mid-week. On the other side of the trough we revert back to very weak pressure gradients in the Tasman and another dismal spell of tiny, weak waves. Our longer term outlook has fallen apart compared to Fridays notes. Read on for details. 

In the short run we’ll see light winds, tending NE in the a’noon. Afternoon seabreeze effects are being suppressed by very warm inshore sea surface temperatures at the moment so under present conditions it’s unlikely we will see more than 15kts of a’noon wind. Not much surf expected with our current E’ly tradeswell on the way down and only weak 1-2ft surf expected. 

Light winds again for Wed as a trough approaches and stalls on the MNC, bringing light S’lies to Coffs and Port and light breezes to the rest of the region. S’lies are likely to extend north of Yamba during the a’noon. Small surf again, in the 1-2ft range at best. Closer to 1 than 2ft. A micro-grovel is on the cards for the keen. The MNC should see a little kick in new S swell coming off winds feeding into the trough but no real size is expected- just a few small 2ft waves.

Thursday looks a better bet. Latest modelling suggests a small circulation forming in the trough line off the lower Mid North Coast. If this eventuates a morning SW flow is likely across the region tending light S’ly-SE’ly through the day. Small S-S/SE swells perk up to 3ft across the MNC, grading slightly smaller the further north you go and remaining tiny and weak in SEQLD, with just the occ. 2ft wave at the best S swell magnets. 

Friday sees light winds- land breezes tending to light SE winds- as the trough/low washes out and weak high pressure sits in the Tasman. Easing swells but fun sized 2ft surf offers a few peaky waves on the beachies in NENSW, tiny in SEQLD, before the onshore gets up. 

This weekend (Jan 11-12)

A quiet weekend ahead as the small, peaky S-SE swell fades out into and over the weekend. Light winds early Sat, tending E through the day at mod paces. Early birds will find a weak, peaky 1-2ft wave at NENSW magnets, smaller in SEQLD, with less size and more onshore wind on it as the day progresses. 

Small, weak dribble for Sun, topping out at 1-1.5ft at open beaches in NENSW, 1ft in SEQLD.  Get in early under light W winds before they shift NE through the day with a few tiny waves on offer at backbeaches for kids and learners. 

Next week (Jan 13 onwards)

High in the Tasman to start next week with a N’ly flow and small NE windswell is on the menu. An unstable pattern is still suggested as an inland trough or low system approaches from the west, likely leading to freshening N’lies and some NE windswell, as a best case scenario.

GFS suggests that flow is disrupted by a weak, troughy area leading to tiny surf through the Tues-Thurs period with a possibly of increasing NE windswell later next week as the flow re-establishes.

EC maintains a firmer NE flow during this period, extending out into the Tasman as a broader fetch. Under this scenario we’ll see a workable period of fun sized NE swell in the 2-3ft range +- a foot, favouring the MNC.

There’s still some possibility of bigger swells once the inland trough or low enters the Tasman but models have been all over the shop through the weekend and pushed any outcomes further out into the long range horizon. Very low to negligible confidence now on outcomes regarding that possibility.

Let’s see how it looks Wed.