There's no evidence to suggests any deviation away from the current regional trend for the east swell.
The main synoptic feature for the short term period is a developing complex Tasman Low that'll spin up east of Bass Strait overnight, and reach peak intensity on Friday, but actually remain active within our swell window until next Wednesday.
Lots of swell due this weekend from both the Tasman Low, and the sub-tropical low south of Fiji. But we'll see good waves prior to then too.
A deepening Tasman Low is currently parked midway between Tasmania and New Zealand, and southerly gales around its western flank reached maximum strength around lunchtime today.
On Thursday and Friday, a new Tasman Low will develop off the Southern NSW Coast and move slowly eastwards. The latest model runs have strengthened this low, broadened its fetch and slowed its eastwards track.
Plenty of fun surf this weekend. For Northern NSW, that is.
A slow moving low pressure system is currently off the QLD coast generating plenty of size for the subtropics. Windspeeds along the southern flank are just a notch higher than modelled on Wed so we’ve seen a corresponding uptick in size.
We are seeing the “schizoid” pattern now develop whereby a monsoonal trough is splitting off a low pressure trough along the CQ coast, supported by a high pressure belt from the Bight to the Tasman Sea, while fronts and a parent low are entering the lower Tasman. That is seeing a regime where both S swells and a developing E’ly swell event are both in play across most of the Eastern Seaboard.
We’ve got an interesting looking pattern as we transition into Summer, with both active frontal systems transiting below the continent and a precursor monsoonal trough across the top end of Australia. A front pushing into the Tasman Sea and a deeper parent low bring S swell pulses this week while a trough of low pressure is expected to hive off the precursor monsoon trough mid week and sit in the Coral Sea later this week, bringing plenty of E swell for the Eastern Seaboard- especially favouring the sub-tropics for size and duration.
The more intense action will be in the sub-tropics with potential for a trough of low pressure to form off the CQ coast, potentially deepening into a hybrid sub-tropical low later next week. That looks to generate large swells for the SEQLD/NENSW Points for the most part.