Friday, 14 April 2023

OK, we’re getting more clarity on the dynamic situation expected to unfold next week. The current small low off the North Coast quickly gets whisked away towards New Zealand and becomes enjoined in a long, NW-SE blocking trough pattern, which is expected to have more low pressure centres embedded in it next week. 

Wednesday, 12 April 2023

The broad, complex Tasman low which generated large S swells is now positioned on the other side of New Zealand with a lingering fetch of SSE-SE winds under the South Island. A much smaller, cut-off low NW  of Tasmania is linked via a trough line to TC Ilsa  off the Kimberly Coast and is expected to drift into the Tasman Sea tomorrow bringing a fresh S’ly flow to round off the week. A dynamic trough blocking pattern is then expected to unfold in the medium term.

Monday, 10 April 2023

The good news is that we're expecting light variable winds under a weak pressure gradient. The even better news is that there's a stack of more swell on the way.

Friday, 7 April 2023

A mid-latitude low slips East of Tasmania overnight and deepens rapidly as it merges with an incoming frontal system. The front brings a strong NW tending W’ly flow through Sat which will herald the start of a major S swell episode, favouring NENSW for size.

Wednesday, 5 April 2023

The big ticket item presently is the complex trough of low pressure off the Mid North Coast. Current ASCAT (satellite windspeed) passes show a proximate fetch of strong winds with embedded low end E’ly quarter gales aimed directly at the Mid North Coast.

Monday, 3 April 2023

This will direct an E’ly fetch across a wide swathe of the Eastern seaboard from the sub-tropics down to the Sydney region. A small closed low forming in the trough then slowly retracts eastwards as we head into the Easter weekend. Winds are going to be a bit tricky but we’ll have plenty of E/SE-SE swell to play with this week as this fetch forms up.

Friday, 31 March 2023

Eyes back to the E next week. The high in the Tasman and a blocking band of high pressure well to the south of the continent effectively annuls the southern swell window. With that shut down we’ll be looking to the East. 

Wednesday, 29 March 2023

Still a complex, troughy pattern in play with a slow moving trough of low pressure drifting south off the Gippsland coast towards waters East of Tasmania. A front sweeping in behind the trough is bringing a clearing W’ly flow through temperate NSW today, reaching the sub-tropics tomorrow.

Monday, 27 March 2023

A small trough of low pressure off the Gippsland coast is replaced by another trough system later in the week. Far to the south of this hot, soupy mess a series of stronger polar lows are traversing the Far Southern Ocean sending small long period S swell trains our way. 

Friday, 24 March 2023

Long period S swells will be the dominant swell trains next week (for NENSW) as a complex deep low traverses the far southern Tasman Sea and becomes slow moving in New Zealand longitudes.