South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 9th Sep)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small S swells build Tues PM, peak Wed with light winds Wed AM
• Stronger S swell Thurs PM, peaking Fri with mod/fresh S’ly winds
• More S swell on the weekend, possibly sizey Sun into Mon
• Small SE-E/SE swells likely into mid next week
• Possible E/NE-NE swell mid week from winds feeding into a trough, low confidence on specifics so check back Wed

Recap

Nothing much over the weekend with a small signal of E swell and some minor NE windswell in the mix both days, topping out around 1-2ft- just enough for a grovel with mod/fresh N’ly winds kicking up both days. Lighter winds this morning with similar sized surf- just enough for a grovel. We’ll see some sizier S swells show up by the end of the week, albeit with plenty of wind. Read on for details. 

Low energy spring line-up

This week (Sep 9-13)

We have a pair of weak highs in the Tasman and over Australia with a trough moving north through the sub-tropics  and a zonal front pushing across the Tasman. Thats a typical spring pattern. A much stronger high is approaching from the Indian Ocean and expected to push into the Bight mid-week with a trough and low forming in the Tasman on Thursday. This much more energetic pattern will generate some size S swells for the end of the week with a following frontal system also looking juicy. Longer term we may see some action from the E-E/NE as winds from the strong high feed into an inland trough. Altogether a much more active outlook.

In the short run a weak, troughy area off the NSW Coast looks to direct morning SW breezes which should clock around light S-SE before washing out to variable then light E-NE seabreezes. Not much to start with but by mid a’noon we should see some small S swell show across the MNC then Northern rivers - offering the occ. 2ft set.

That little pulse then holds into Wed with some 2 occ. 3ft sets at S exposed breaks in NENSW (possibly a few 4ft sets at the best magnets) and minor 1-2ft surf at SEQLD S swell magnets. Light winds early will tend towards E’ly then NE’ly breezes, stronger south of the border.

Thursday looks like a dynamic day. A trough deepens and inflames a strong S’ly flow along the NSW coast, extending into the Tasman. We should see light NW-N winds early tending mod/fresh S/SW-S’ly during the day. We’ll note EC has a significantly stronger and more explosive system which would generate a steeper and sizier increase in short range S swell during Thurs a’noon across the MNC-Northern Rivers coastline, likely pushing up up into the 3-5ft range by close of play. GFS has a more modest system and increase, with short range S swell up into the 2-3 ft range on dark. We’ll finetune size and timing on Wed as we get closer to the event. 

We should see solid S’ly swells Fri, with revisions likely Wed on size and timing. The broad scale pattern is for the trough of low pressure to rotate away and move NE with firm pressure gradient remaining  on the coast from the high pressure ridge. That would suggest a mod S’ly flow easing tending mod/fresh S/SE winds in the a’noon. We’ll pencil in at least 6ft of S’ly swell in NENSW, 2-3ft in SEQLD at S facing beaches and revise on Wed. An upgrade could easily be on the cards.

This weekend (Sep14-15)

Low confidence in the weekend f/cast due to uncertainty over the strength of follow-up fronts pushing into the Tasman. Residual S-S/SE swell should hold at least 3-4ft of size through Sat across NENSW, smaller by a notch into SEQLD. We should see light winds Sat morning with some fun waves from the S before the next front pushes through with S’ly winds. EC has a much stronger frontal intrusion than GFS, suggesting a Sat PM spike in new S swell. /Tues

That swell would then extend into Sun at sizey levels (4-5ft).

GFS has a much more subdued frontal system, with a weak S’ly change Sat and a small increase in S swell for Sun as winds shift SE-E/SE under a new high pressure ridge.

EC has been consistent run to run on their outlook even if their resolution does look more winter than spring. Stay tuned for updates Wed.

Next week (Sep16 onwards)

High pressure moves into the Tasman next week and looks to immediately migrate NE, with winds shifting from SE-E/SE on Mon to the E and E/NE through Wed. Low confidence on size but we should see a mix of S and SE swells to start the week.

The real interest comes mid-week with a potential inland trough moving towards the coast and anchoring a strong and broad NE infeed from the strong high. Under this scenario we’ll be looking at some  quality from the E/NE-NE mid week especially on the MNC. Still too far off to have any real confidence in size or timing but if does play out as modelled by GFS we could be looking at quality surf with winds shifting W’ly at the peak of the swell. Might be prudent to pencil in Wed and potentially Thurs next week and check back in Wed for a clearer picture of how things are shaping up.

Seeya then.