Wednesday, 5 July 2023

Residual S/SE groundswell pulses from the off axis fetch as it drifted slowly SE of the South Island will put a floor under wave heights before we see a fresh round of S swell early next week. Good news for some areas south of the border, with a much less exciting but seasonally expected outlook for SEQLD.

Monday, 3 July 2023

Before we get to that point, we still need the developing S/SE swell to push through, reach a plateau and then slowly abate - which will happen overnight and then gradually through Tuesday.

Friday, 30 June 2023

A series of overlapping south swells remain on the menu for the next three or four days, thanks to a series of powerful fronts sliding around an amplifying long wave trough over New Zealand longitudes.

Wednesday, 28 June 2023

A massive NW cloud band is drawing moisture in from the Indian Ocean and Arafura Sea via inland troughs. The cold fronts are our primary swell source through this week and into the weekend with next week suggesting the troughs will move offshore and potentially create conditions for swell from the E/NE to SE. 

Monday, 26 June 2023

High pressure sitting up at sub-tropical latitudes is allowing a very active series of fronts to penetrate NE into the Tasman Sea. A very slow moving monster high tracking into WA longitudes is anchoring a sustained SW flow as the fronts ride up it’s extended flank from the Southern Ocean into the Tasman.  We’ll see multiple S swell pulses from this set-up, becoming stronger over the weekend.

Friday, 23 June 2023

Long lined, inconsistent E-E/SE swell will continue next week, from a source near Tonga then a closer low forming on a persistent trough line closer to the North Island. This closer system is right on the edge of the swell window.

Wednesday, 21 June 2023

Yesterdays large area of low pressure consolidated nicely in the Tasman and is now slow moving as it approaches the North Island. The head of the fetch reached sub-tropical latitudes, aiding swell spread into SEQLD. Off-axis SSW-SW winds hold through today and tomorrow in the Central Tasman leading to a slow decline in S-S/SE swell for the region through this time frame.

Monday, 19 June 2023

High pressure over the continent its still ridging along it’s Southern flank with a westerly belt creating flat, groomed conditions. A deep, compact  low is well SW of Tasmania, weakening as it enters the lower Tasman. A decaying front linked to the low spawns a broad area of low pressure in the Tasman tomorrow and then lingers in the Tasman for most of the week. 

Friday, 16 June 2023

OK, the continent is covered in high pressure, now drifting out over NSW into the Tasman and right across our wide swell window we’ve got very placid sea states leading to a continuation of small, weak surf. 

Wednesday, 14 June 2023

We’re midway through a pretty sleepy week, swell-wise. A high pressure cell is drifting across the interior of the continent with a trough/front connected to a high riding low pushing East of Tasmania through today. Thats’ driving a mod/fresh synoptic W’ly flow across most of NSW and extending up into the sub-tropics.