The potential TC is unlikely to be a swell source but there is one modelled track where it briefly pushes into the swell window between Vanuatu and New Caledonia, offering some potential for NE-E/NE swell Thurs/Fri. Very low confidence at the moment and likely to be swamped by dominant S-S/SE swell in the event it does occur. We’ll revisit on Mon.
Primary tabs
/reports/forecaster-notes/south-east-queensland-northern-new-south-wales/2023/10/20/easing-leftovers
freeride76
Friday, 20 October 2023
/reports/forecaster-notes/south-east-queensland-northern-new-south-wales/2023/10/18/plenty-fun-waves
freeride76
Wednesday, 18 October 2023
The synoptic set-up looks quite unseasonal at the moment with a 1031 hPa high drifting over NSW and a 1007 hPa low slow moving in the Tasman west of the North Island. Current ASCAT (satellite windspeed) passes show broad fetch of mostly strong S-S/SE winds with some embedded low end gales reasonably well aimed for East coast swell production.
/reports/forecaster-notes/south-east-queensland-northern-new-south-wales/2023/10/16/plenty-s-se-swell
freeride76
Monday, 16 October 2023
A strong front and embedded trough of low pressure are currently located just off the Gippsland Coast, expected too move NE into the Tasman and driving a strong/ near gale force S’ly flow up the NSW Coast today, reaching the QLD in the wee hours of Tuesday. There’ll be an initial burst of S swell associated with the proximate fetch, with some better quality SE-E/SE swell from a secondary intensification of the low as it becomes slow moving near New Zealand.
/reports/forecaster-notes/south-east-queensland-northern-new-south-wales/2023/10/13/workable-s-swells
freeride76
Friday, 13 October 2023
We’ve got more clarity on the situation next week now as a lingering trough line from the NSW South Coast down to Gippsland is expected to deepen in response to a front and form a surface low in the Tasman Sea, likely later Mon.
/reports/forecaster-notes/south-east-queensland-northern-new-south-wales/2023/10/11/october-nlies-the
freeride76
Wednesday, 11 October 2023
Moderate strength high pressure (1025 hPa) is drifting NE into the Tasman with a strong polar storm well SW of NZ exiting the swell window. That should see a settled short term before another complex trough and frontal system pushes north along the coast tomorrow with a stiff SW-S change. N'ly winds into the weekend under a very mobile, troughy pattern with some potential next week for a surface low to form in one of the trough lines.
/reports/forecaster-notes/south-east-queensland-northern-new-south-wales/2023/10/09/patchwork-quilt
thermalben
Monday, 9 October 2023
I’m not super confident on the weekend outlook.
/reports/forecaster-notes/south-east-queensland-northern-new-south-wales/2023/10/06/punchy-windy
thermalben
Friday, 6 October 2023
We've got more southerly swell on the way.
/reports/forecaster-notes/south-east-queensland-northern-new-south-wales/2023/10/04/solid-though
thermalben
Wednesday, 4 October 2023
We've had a slight tweak to the surf outlook for Thursday, mainly for SE Qld.
/reports/forecaster-notes/south-east-queensland-northern-new-south-wales/2023/10/02/punchy-and-windy
thermalben
Monday, 2 October 2023
It's one of the strongest N'ly local fetches we've seen in a while and will consequently deliver a punchy, sizeable NE windswell during the middle of the week.
/reports/forecaster-notes/south-east-queensland-northern-new-south-wales/2023/09/29/plenty-nlies-some
freeride76
Friday, 29 September 2023
We’ve got a strong, expansive front passing through the Tasman at present will which supply some small pulses of S swell over the coming days. High pressure over NSW is moving NE into the Tasman, with a N’ly flow presently developing.
