South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Jan 8th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Trough brings small S-SE swells Thurs, easing Fri, favouring NENSW, remaining tiny in SEQLD
• Tiny surf becoming established over the weekend
• Not much on offer early next week, at this stage- tiny NE windswells at best
• Possible front and low moving into the Tasman mid next week and supplying S swells favouring NSW- check back Fri for updates
• Still nothing significant in the tropics

Recap

Small tradeswells yesterday came in slightly warm in the 2ft range, favouring the Sunshine Coast, with clean morning conditions. Size has backed down today with minor 1-2ft surf (at best) and light winds tending to light E/NE breezes with a trough bringing a light S’ly flow up to Coffs. 

A crowded grovel for the keen

This week (Jan 8-10)

A small trough of low pressure has stalled off Seal Rocks with a SE infeed south of the trough expected to ease over the next 24 hrs and a light/variable flow north of the trough. Apart from this short-range feature, which is whipping up some local, short range swell for Central/Southern NSW extending up to the MNC, pressure gradients in the Tasman and Coral Seas remain very weak. Easing swells through the rest of the week with not much on the radar until mid next week.

In the short run we’ll see a light/variable flow about the NENSW region, tending to light E’ly breezes, more NE’ly north of Ballina-Byron. The MNC region will benefit most from the stalled trough with 2-3ft surf, grading smaller the further north you go and becoming tiny in SEQLD. Areas south of the border should see a small, surfable wave, with a micro-grovel in SEQLD.

Similar winds continue into Fri with light morning winds (possible land breezes) tending to light/mod E-NE breezes in the a’noon. Surf will tend to small E’ly swells in the 1-2ft range in NENSW with tiny surf in SEQLD.

This weekend (Jan 11-12)

 Weakening high pressure near the South Island and a broad inland low will see winds shift N-NE over the weekend, freshening through Sunday in particular. Tiny surf continues through this period for SEQLD.

No great size for Sat with a small grovel on hand from E/NE-NE windswells in the 1-2ft range favouring the Yamba-MNC stretch. Conditions should be fair under light morning breezes tending to mod a’noon NE seabreezes.

Winds freshen from the N/NE on Sun with more small NE windswells in the 1-2ft range in Yamba-MNC, offering a grovel for the keen. Remaining tiny for areas north of Byron into SEQLD.

Next week (Jan 13 onwards)

Weak high pressure in the Tasman and a N-NE flow to start next week with a couple of days of small NE windswells on offer. A massive low pressure system sits on the other side of New Zealand but that won’t be of any succour for us. If it was in the Tasman, we’d be on for a 6-8ft swell.

Expect small 1-2ft NE windswell Mon, likely easing back to tiny through Tues and into Wed, although depending on the N’ly infeed into the approaching low we may see workable NE windswells during this period, favouring the MNC region.

From mid-week we are likely to see a shift as the inland low gets absorbed into a frontal system and low moving from the Bight into Bass Strait. That should see a SW-S change and S swells as frontal winds from that direction operate on Tasman seas. Still some model divergence with EC suggesting a stronger low moving into the Tasman and becoming slow moving with a larger S swell from Thurs next week.

GFS suggests a more standard frontal system which moves across the Tasman and generates a spike in S swell Thurs, easing later in the week. 

Too early to have any confidence in specifics, especially with weak high pressure support expected. 

That pattern of weak high pressure and transient lows or troughs in the Tasman does look to continue in the medium term suggesting more small, weak surf as our summer of discontent drags on.