Models are still struggling to resolve this trough but there are reasonable grounds to suggest the trough may deepen and form a surface low in the Tasman late next week.
Primary tabs
Once that high moves offshore we’ll see N’lies kick in for the rest of the week with only a weak trough expected to interrupt that pattern. No major swells on the radar through the short or medium term.
The front brings a bog standard blast of winter/spring style S swell through the short term, with the high quickly moving into the Tasman.
We’ll see a deep parent low finally moving below Tasmania early next week after generating multiple large swells for Victoria. As the low moves eastwards we should see a final frontal passage through Bass Strait and with a fetch SE of Tasmania, generating a sizey S swell for Tues/Wed next week.
The gale force fetches out of Bass Strait are supplying small S’ly pulses favouring Central/Mid North NSW. A slow moving low in the South Pacific will supply some very inconsistent background E swell into the weekend and next week.
The pattern of strong, zonal W’lies tied to polar lows and embedded cold fronts and weak mobile high pressure won’t offer much north of Seal Rocks but we will see some small S swells generated by gales out of Bass Strait this week with a mostly NW-W flow across southern NSW and NW-N in the sub-tropics. There’ll be a few small windows, favouring the MNC.
There is also a risk of northerlies through this period, but we’ll take a closer look at the specs on Monday.
Very spring-like synoptic chart with mobile high pressure moving NE through the Tasman and a N’ly flow across most of the eastern seaboard.
A deeper fetch now operating near New Zealand longitudes is better aimed at Pacific targets (some to Fiji, most to Tahiti) with some sideband S/SE groundswell due through the middle of this week.
We’re still looking at S’ly to S/SE’ly swells next week but the overall evolution of the storms is now not as favourable with more of the energy aimed at Pacific targets.