Friday, 10 November 2023

Much stronger frontal activity in the Far Southern Tasman tied to a deep, slow moving low will provide some long period S’ly groundswell pulses next week, favouring NENSW, although winds are looking very tricky around a troughy pattern. 

Wednesday, 8 November 2023

A weak ridge up the sub-tropics has a lighter E’ly flow with stronger N-NE winds developing south of the border. We’ll see this pattern with increasing NE windswell on the MNC and some workable trade swell in the sub-tropics.

Monday, 6 November 2023

Surf-wise the tradewind fetch will be chugging away and like all tradewind fetches once we get a fully developed sea state we should see an improvement in size and quality.

Friday, 3 November 2023

The trade flow is enhanced by another tropical development linked to a Westerly wind burst (WWB) extending from PNG longitudes into Fijian areas. This WWB is creating a long, angled trough through the South Pacific Convergence Zone and squeezing onto the large high as it moves slowly in New Zealand longitudes.

Wednesday, 1 November 2023

The deep Tasman low near the North Island has now dissipated and left the building with a small low in the Central/Southern Tasman supplying small S swells and an even smaller trough of low pressure off the Far North Coast directing SE winds onto the coast. This pattern remains slow moving as large high slowly approaches from South of the Bight and multiple inland troughs supply unstable weather. 

Monday, 30 October 2023

The Tasman low of sub-tropical origins which has sprayed the East Coast with swell is now just north of the North Island, with some swell generating winds still active to the west of the North Island, although quite limited in length. It’s deepened and is hammering the North Island sending another pulse of E/SE swell our way.

Friday, 27 October 2023

The evolution of the surface low in the sub-tropics is complicated and running a little behind schedule, but as we suggested on Wed we’ll see the remnants of severe TC Lola drift into and become absorbed into the large low centre over the weekend as it approaches the North Island.

Wednesday, 25 October 2023

Spectacular charts more characteristic of late Summer/Autumn with a Cat 5 TC in the South Pacific bearing down on Vanuatu, and a powerful frontal intrusion poised to enter the Tasman Sea backed by a monster high in the Bight. A strong S-SE surge associated with this system spawns a surface low off the North Coast when it encounters a trough line in that zone.

Monday, 23 October 2023

Late in the week, a combination of inland upper trough and a long angled trough extending from TC Lola remnants is expected to form a powerful surface low off the sub-tropical NSW Coast (likely between Lord Howe and Norfolk Is). As modelled, gales will produce a large E’ly quadrant swell event, with maximum size in Northern NSW, grading smaller into temperate NSW. A secondary October surprise that looks to be a major swell producer.

Friday, 20 October 2023

The potential TC is unlikely to be a swell source but there is one modelled track where it briefly pushes into the swell window between Vanuatu and New Caledonia, offering some potential for NE-E/NE swell Thurs/Fri. Very low confidence at the moment and likely to be swamped by dominant S-S/SE swell in the event it does occur. We’ll revisit on Mon.