A strong front and embedded trough of low pressure are currently located just off the Gippsland Coast, expected too move NE into the Tasman and driving a strong/ near gale force S’ly flow up the NSW Coast today, reaching the QLD in the wee hours of Tuesday. There’ll be an initial burst of S swell associated with the proximate fetch, with some better quality SE-E/SE swell from a secondary intensification of the low as it becomes slow moving near New Zealand.
We’ve got more clarity on the situation next week now as a lingering trough line from the NSW South Coast down to Gippsland is expected to deepen in response to a front and form a surface low in the Tasman Sea, likely later Mon.
Moderate strength high pressure (1025 hPa) is drifting NE into the Tasman with a strong polar storm well SW of NZ exiting the swell window. That should see a settled short term before another complex trough and frontal system pushes north along the coast tomorrow with a stiff SW-S change. N'ly winds into the weekend under a very mobile, troughy pattern with some potential next week for a surface low to form in one of the trough lines.
I’m not super confident on the weekend outlook.
We've got more southerly swell on the way.
We've had a slight tweak to the surf outlook for Thursday, mainly for SE Qld.
It's one of the strongest N'ly local fetches we've seen in a while and will consequently deliver a punchy, sizeable NE windswell during the middle of the week.
We’ve got a strong, expansive front passing through the Tasman at present will which supply some small pulses of S swell over the coming days. High pressure over NSW is moving NE into the Tasman, with a N’ly flow presently developing.
High cells are now tending to move NE as they enter the Tasman, bringing N’ly episodes which were rare through our triple La Niña but are becoming common as we enter El Niño proper. Small, combination swells and some light wind periods pad out the rest of the week with a more entrenched N’ly episode next week.
The high pressure belt is behaving in typical spring fashion- tracking NE as it enters the Tasman with episodic N’lies. We’ve got a small fetch out of Cook Strait at present from a decaying low pressure system, and small, compact low about to enter the Tasman. Combined with some swell from a tradewind band feeding into a long trough we’ll see concurrent small swells from these sources.