South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 16th April)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• More S/SE angled swells fill in Thurs with winds shifting more SW-S
• Pumping, very sizey SE swells Fri with light winds, favouring NENSW for size
• Sizey but easing SE swells over the weekend with winds shifting more NW through NE
• S swells expected early next week

Recap

Plenty of chunky E’ly tradeswell since the last forecast notes with size hovering in the 4ft range with a few subtle ups and downs. Winds were mod/fresh S-SE yesterday, more S’ly today after a morning SW flow and strongest in SEQLD, lighter through the MNC. All in all, mostly favouring the Points. 

Still plenty of E swell getting into the coast- quality mixed

This week (Apr 16-18)

A complex scenario which is atmospheric  lead-up work for a major swell generating pattern is now underway. A tropical depression between Vanuatu and New Caledonia has formed a tropical cyclone (TC Tam) and is racing south-eastwards at 23kts, where it is expected to merge with another tropical low SW of New Caledonia. After a binary interaction between the two systems, the merged low transitions into a storm force sub-tropical low which tracks SW into the Northern Tasman. This storm force low has a broad fetch aimed directly at the East Coast, generating a large E’ly quadrant swell for Good Friday and the Easter weekend with uncommonly large swell periods for swells from that direction. Easing to slack pressure gradients across the East Coast during the swells arrival and peak look to supply premium surface conditions. 

In the short run we should see another day of fresh S’lies, locally enhanced by a small troughy feature moving northwards along the temperate/sub-tropical coast of NSW. Fresh to strong S’lies should be SW inshore early so normal advice applies: get in early for cleanest conditions before the synoptic wind really kicks in. Surf-wise it’ll be lemon next to the pie stuff but we’ll see tradeswell tending to more local S’ly swell to 3-5ft. Smaller into more sheltered locations. We may see some more E’ly angled swell trains showing late in the day from pre-cursor E’ly winds which have set up shop through the eastern Tasman adjacent to the North island early today.

We’ll still see some S’ly quarter wind for Good Friday but with pressure gradients easing it’ll be W through W/SW for the morning, tracking SW through S and easing back to light paces from the S-SE through the day. A very large E/SE-SE swell in the 12-14 second period band will be in the water and still building Fri morning. With the low in Tasman Sea proximity there’ll be a range of swell trains in the water, in the 6-8ft range with some larger 10ft rogue sets likely in the mix across NENSW. In SEQLD, surf will be smaller by a notch and much smaller into the more protected points. It’s going to be very large across open stretches, with lots of water moving with the SE’ly direction. You’ll find smaller, more user friendly options at the inner points.

This weekend (Apr 19-20)

Sat will be down from the peak on Good Friday as the now broad Tasman low will be dissipating in strength through Good Friday. Winds will start off light W but pretty quickly tilt NW and then tend to light NE breezes so it might be a mission finding a beachie holding the size if the devil wind is too much for the Points. Still plenty of size for the morning with 6 occ. 8ft sets, across NENSW, smaller 4-6ft in SEQLD, but they will tail off through the morning and into the a’noon, although we’re still likely to see a few 5-6ft sets (3-5 in SEQLD) through the a’noon as weak NE seabreezes kick in. 

Even more user friendly for Sun morning as swells tail off and tend more S/SE. Still holding in the 3-5ft range early dropping back to 3ft with the occ. 4ft set in the a’noon, smaller in SEQLD. With a front and cut-off low approaching from the west we’ll see early NW winds tend N-NE and freshen through the a’noon, reaching mod paces by mid-late a’noon.

Next week (Apr 21 onwards)

Monday is still looking pretty tricky to call as the cut-off low pushes off the coast of southern/Central NSW and tracks northwards. Depending on the positioning we could see developing offshore W-SW winds and some small fun leftovers or onshore N’ly winds small leftover SE swells. We’ll likely at least see a window of light winds and small leftovers for the early with winds shifting more SW across the MNC during the day.

Surf potential into next week will be determined by this small low moving offshore from the coast. 

It’s likely we’ll see a modest pressure squeeze between the low and a following high, with some workable short range S/SE-SE swell developing Tues/Wed. 

Winds don’t look great, being from the same direction as the swell but speeds remain moderate or less so we should see workable windows for the early under light land breezes. 

We may also see another low working it’s way through the South Pacific slot, although at much more distant longitudes than the current system. GFS has a more bullish outlook suggesting some nice E’ly swell late next week in the 3-4ft range while EC is barely interested, with a weak low only showing signs of life once it’s moved behind the North Island. 

We’ll flag it for and see how it looks Fri.

In the mean-time much bigger fish to fry in the short-term.

Seeya on Good Friday!