South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 21st April)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Tiny leftovers and small E swell Tues with a S’ly change (AM in NENSW, PM in SEQLD)
• Increase in short range SE-E/SE swell Wed but with S/SE-SE winds
• Winds switch more onshore Thurs (E/SE-E) with a peak in short range E’ly swell
• Traces of S’ly groundswell in the water Thurs/Fri
• Fun sized E’ly swell Fri with light winds
• Small blend for the weekend with light winds Sat, W-SW winds Sun, tending SW-S in NENSW
• Increase in S swell likely late Sun for MNC, rest of the region Mon into Tues with S/SE winds
• More E’ly swell likely from Tues next week

Recap

Good Fridays all-time swell slowly eased over the Easter weekend. Sat still saw plenty of size with 6ft+ sets through the morning in NENSW, 3-5ft in SEQLD, slowly backing down in the second half of the day under light morning offshores and a’noon SE-E winds. Sunday offered up a more user-friendly 3-4ft (occ. 5ft set) in NENSW, 2-3ft in SEQLD with clean morning conditions and a slow ease through the day with morning light winds tending to a’noon N’lies. Back to small surf today with a few 2ft waves to be had under light morning winds from the NW, expected to tend N’ly through the day at mod paces. 

Some macking pits on the back banks if you could get out there

This week (Apr 21-25)

We’ve got a more subdued synoptic outlook this week with weak high pressure currently in the Tasman and a complex troughy area of low pressure situated off the Southern NSW/Gippsland coast. That trough moves NE, backed by a large high pressure centre currently in the Bight. We’ll see the trough bring onshore winds and swell as it moves up the NSW Coast through the first half of this week. That will mostly obscure some traces of long period S swell pushing up the Tasman. A distant low in the South Pacific currently in Tongan latitudes will send some small but good quality E’ly swell late this week, with more favourable winds. 

In the short run we’ll see the trough move NE through tomorrow, with a brief window of lighter W-NW winds before a morning SW-S change across NENSW works it way up to the QLD border by lunch-time. Not much surf to speak of with tiny leftovers to 1-2ft and some small E’ly swell from a fetch off the top of New Zealand offering up a 2ft set every so often.

With the trough expected off the MNC/Northern Rivers on Wed and the high moving towards Tasmania we’ll see a high pressure ridge up the entire eastern seaboard and onshore winds through Wed, mostly from the S/SE, tending SE to E’ly through the day at mod/fresh paces. Early winds should be SW across most of the region. Small amount of short range S/SE-SE swell will build through the day to 2-3ft but conditions will blown out at exposed breaks with some tiny peelers on offer across the Points. 

Winds shift more E’ly on Thurs and under a straight onshore flow it’s hard to see anything of any quality. There will be somne short range E/SE-SE swell to 2-3ft in the water if winds do relax a bit. Traces of long period S swell may offer up a novelty wave at sheltered spots but they’ll be tiny by the time they wrap in.

Pressure gradients ease on Fri with good odds for a morning land breeze before light a’noon breezes kick in- more E/NE-NE south of the border and SE-E/SE north of it. A current low and strong high combo in the South Pacific looks to send quality but very inconsistent E’ly swell to make landfall on Fri. In the absence of any other major swells this will provide some fun but very slow sets from the E in the 3ft range. Be prepared for some very long waits though.

This weekend (Apr 26-27) 

We’ll see another trough approach the region this weekend, bringing a S’ly change through Sun (or Mon for SEQLD) as it moves offshore and forms a low. As this stage it looks like we will see an initial NW-N flow on Sat, wiuth winds shifting more W’ly through SW on Sun (remaining W’ly for most of the day in SEQLD). Only small surf expected Sat with some inconsistent sets from the South Pacific and some E/NE swell from an infeed into the approaching trough/low- all topping out around 2 occ. 3ft. If winds play ball, there should be a few fun beachies about. 

Same again for Sun with a small, clean blend of swells, mostly E’ly, to 2-3ft. By close of play and depending on the timing of the trough/low we should see some new S’ly swell showing across the MNC. We’ll update timing and size through the week but early indications are 3-4ft at S facing beaches, smaller elsewhere. 

Next week (Apr 28 onwards)

Quite a complicated outlook for next week with plenty of model divergence so we’ll sketch out the basic outline and fill in the details as we get more model agreement. 

The weekend’s low looks to skip away quite quickly but we should still see some workable S swell, especially in NENSW developing through Mon and extending into Tues in the 3ft range at S exposed breaks. 

Another S’ly change is likely Mon or Tues as a front pushes through the  Tasman, backed by another strong high. We should see some S swell from this broad scale pattern, along with S’ly winds, possibly easing quickly as high pressure moves up over southern NSW.

Also in play is another round of E swell from a tropical low moving towards the North Island onto a pre-existing E’ly fetch. The pattern looks quite mobile at present, so no major size is expected (3ft or so) but swell from the Eastern quadrant looks likely from Tues next week. 

In other words, typical autumn pattern of medium size swells from the E and S- potentially combining with light winds.

We’ll pencil it in for now and see how it looks on Wed.

Seeya then.