South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Fri 11th April)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Fun waves across semi-exposed points this weekend with building trade swells and SE winds north from Yamba (lighter earlier, and on the MNC)
• A peak in trade swell expected Mon or maybe Tues, with similar winds, then easing Wed
• Flukey south swells also in the water across Northern NSW this weekend, holding Monday
• Solid SE swell in Northern NSW for Easter Friday, easing Sat, smaller in SE Qld

Recap

Easing southerly swells maintained 3ft surf across south facing beaches in Northern NSW on Thursday, smaller in SE Qld. Building E’ly swells today have increased from 2ft to 2-3ft across SE Qld and Far Northern NSW, with smaller surf south from Yamba (and residual S’ly swell persisting throughout Northern NSW). Winds have been mainly offshore in the mornings, and onshore in the afternoon, without too much strength. 

This weekend (Apr 12-13)

We’ve got plenty of waves on tap for the weekend.

A high pressure system in the southern Tasman Sea extends a firm ridge along the Northern Tasman into the Coral Sea. This will maintain SE winds across most regions north from Yamba, though early mornings should see lighter winds from the SW across many coasts (the one common exception to this is the Sunshine Coast). So aim for an early paddle for the best waves.

The Mid North Coast will see lighter, more variable winds under the influence of the high, though onshores will probably arrive each afternoon.

As for surf, we’ll see a continuation of slowly building trade swell all weekend. 

The Sunshine Coast is best positioned for this swell (relative to the fetch alignment) and so will pick up the most size, building from 2-3ft at open beaches on Saturday to 3-4ft+ by Sunday afternoon. As we head south from the Gold Coast, wave heights will taper off fraction by fraction, though we’re still looking at decent 3ft+ sets on the Mid North Coast on Sunday (smaller on Saturday). 

It’ll be peaky, shorter period energy, well suited to the open beaches. The broad, long fetch with its head positioned close to the coast should ensure wave consistency is reasonably high too.

Also worth mentioning for Saturday is a small long period south swell that pushed across Southern NSW this afternoon, punching a little higher than forecast expectations (it was from an unusual, flukey swell source below the continent earlier in the week). 

This swell should show across south swell magnets on the Mid North Coast and to a lesser degree along the Northern Rivers, with very inconsistent but well lined up 2-3ft sets. 

Further overlapping pulses of south swell are due throughout Sunday, originating from a similar storm passage through the same swell window, so it's quite likely that south swell magnets south from Byron will see dual swells in the water most of the weekend. 

Next week (Apr 14 onwards)

Our weekend building trade swell should maintain Sunday’s surf size through Monday and Tuesday. With the ridge remaining anchored through the northern Tasman Sea and into the coast, local winds will still be up from the S/SE across coasts north from Yamba but with early pockets of SW winds still likely. Southerly breezes are likely across the Mid North Coast.

Small flukey south swells are also likely to persist across south facing beaches in Northern NSW (on Monday, easing Tuesday).  

While this is going on, a complex series of low pressure troughs and easterly dips are expected to form near New Caledonia - atop the northern Tasman Sea ridge - before tracking south. 

The merging of troughs in the north, along with the a strengthening of two ridges to the south (the second forming off Tasmania earlier in the week), is expected to result in a deep low pressure system off the NW tip of New Zealand by Wednesday, with a broad belt of gale force easterly winds aimed towards New South Wales (see below).

The upshot of this is a powerful SE swell currently expected to impact the Northern NSW coast around Easter Friday, with wave heights likely up into the 4-6ft range, before surf size gradually eases over the weekend. 

SE Qld won’t be as favourably aligned for this fetch, so we’re looking at smaller surf reaching 2-3ft across the semi-exposed points, and 3-4ft+ at exposed northern ends and south facing beaches. 

Current indications are for great conditions with light winds. 

It’s worth noting that the wave models have moved around a little in the last day or so - previous runs suggested much bigger surf for Friday - so I have tempered my outlook a little - and we can expect further revisions over the next few days, but this is certainly a swell event to keep an eye on.

See you Monday!